Thai-German Trade War

[StreetCowboy]

Total rubbish .Many of us have been arguing about the strength of the Thai Baht, not necessarily here. What most do not realize is that the Thai currency is NOT a free floating currency. It is a "managed float" It is SET every day by the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of Thailand. To achieve the short term aims of that group

Is that right? I have often wondered how the Baht could possibly not have had a run on it in some of the dire circumstances the country has found itself in recently.

I have even wondered whether the central bank intervenes in the market to buy the Baht to keep it so strong in times of crisis.

The baht has not had a run on it because speculators either believe that it is fairly valued, or that the BOT has the strength to defend it.

SC

[kerryk]

Total rubbish .Many of us have been arguing about the strength of the Thai Baht, not necessarily here. What most do not realize is that the Thai currency is NOT a free floating currency. It is a "managed float" It is SET every day by the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of Thailand. To achieve the short term aims of that group

Is that right? I have often wondered how the Baht could possibly not have had a run on it in some of the dire circumstances the country has found itself in recently.

I have even wondered whether the central bank intervenes in the market to buy the Baht to keep it so strong in times of crisis.

The Central bank has intervened to keep the Baht weak not strong. If the Baht goes up it makes exports more expensive and Thailand has an export economy.

[wintermute]

[

Debt as % of GDP

Germany 142%

UK 400%

Netherlands 471%

Ireland 1103%

Australia 200%

US 95%

Thailand 26%

Which is not a meaningful metric for most of the g8 unless you know what the majority of the debt is about and the overall outlook of the country which includes competitiveness, infrastructure, investment, military, and government stability. The g8 still rule the world despite seemingly lopsided debt ratios.

[wintermute]

Total rubbish .Many of us have been arguing about the strength of the Thai Baht, not necessarily here. What most do not realize is that the Thai currency is NOT a free floating currency. It is a "managed float" It is SET every day by the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of Thailand. To achieve the short term aims of that group

Is that right? I have often wondered how the Baht could possibly not have had a run on it in some of the dire circumstances the country has found itself in recently.

I have even wondered whether the central bank intervenes in the market to buy the Baht to keep it so strong in times of crisis.

The baht has not had a run on it because speculators either believe that it is fairly valued, or that the BOT has the strength to defend it.

SC

The weak dollar has a lot to do with it too. All of Thailand's major trading partners are either related to the U.S. or hinge on the U.S. economy. Plus Thailand has been able to ride the emerging markets wave since the crash which insulated it from the global downturn.

[StreetCowboy]

Total rubbish .Many of us have been arguing about the strength of the Thai Baht, not necessarily here. What most do not realize is that the Thai currency is NOT a free floating currency. It is a "managed float" It is SET every day by the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of Thailand. To achieve the short term aims of that group

Is that right? I have often wondered how the Baht could possibly not have had a run on it in some of the dire circumstances the country has found itself in recently.

I have even wondered whether the central bank intervenes in the market to buy the Baht to keep it so strong in times of crisis.

The baht has not had a run on it because speculators either believe that it is fairly valued, or that the BOT has the strength to defend it.

SC

The weak dollar has a lot to do with it too. All of Thailand's major trading partners are either related to the U.S. or hinge on the U.S. economy. Plus Thailand has been able to ride the emerging markets wave since the crash which insulated it from the global downturn.

I think actually the weak dollar has had less effect than in the past; a lot of Thailand's tourist exports go to Europe, where the Euro is strong because of the relatively high interest rates necessary to sustain their deficits. Only the CHinese have been really willing to support the devaluation of the US$, simly because otherwise their peasantry would start to become wealthy and expect freedom and suffregency, as well as rice and motorbikes

SC

[kerryk]

[

Debt as % of GDP

Germany 142%

UK 400%

Netherlands 471%

Ireland 1103%

Australia 200%

US 95%

Thailand 26%

Which is not a meaningful metric for most of the g8 unless you know what the majority of the debt is about and the overall outlook of the country which includes competitiveness, infrastructure, investment, military, and government stability. The g8 still rule the world despite seemingly lopsided debt ratios.

A lot of people in Brazil, India and China would disagree with you as would any economist especially our own Marc Faber and of course Jim Rogers but what do they know.

[StreetCowboy]

[

Debt as % of GDP

Germany 142%

UK 400%

Netherlands 471%

Ireland 1103%

Australia 200%

US 95%

Thailand 26%

Which is not a meaningful metric for most of the g8 unless you know what the majority of the debt is about and the overall outlook of the country which includes competitiveness, infrastructure, investment, military, and government stability. The g8 still rule the world despite seemingly lopsided debt ratios.

A lot of people in Brazil, India and China would disagree with you as would any economist especially our own Marc Faber and of course Jim Rogers but what do they know.

My bank allows me a 3x mortgage, because it has faith in my earnings potential. The US never seems to struggle to borrow money.

For a lot of people in India, Brazil and China, a mortgage would be like loan-shark-repellant.

We all benefit from their poverty, so perhaps we should not be too broad-minded, Let's face it - where else is Santa going to buy toys?

SC

[kerryk]

[

Debt as % of GDP

Germany 142%

UK 400%

Netherlands 471%

Ireland 1103%

Australia 200%

US 95%

Thailand 26%

Which is not a meaningful metric for most of the g8 unless you know what the majority of the debt is about and the overall outlook of the country which includes competitiveness, infrastructure, investment, military, and government stability. The g8 still rule the world despite seemingly lopsided debt ratios.

A lot of people in Brazil, India and China would disagree with you as would any economist especially our own Marc Faber and of course Jim Rogers but what do they know.

My bank allows me a 3x mortgage, because it has faith in my earnings potential. The US never seems to struggle to borrow money.

For a lot of people in India, Brazil and China, a mortgage would be like loan-shark-repellant.

We all benefit from their poverty, so perhaps we should not be too broad-minded, Let's face it - where else is Santa going to buy toys?

SC

China is America's biggest debt holder. And they are still buying. Perhaps a bit of study on the Chinese housing market would be in order.

[StreetCowboy]

....

A lot of people in Brazil, India and China would disagree with you as would any economist especially our own Marc Faber and of course Jim Rogers but what do they know.

My bank allows me a 3x mortgage, because it has faith in my earnings potential. The US never seems to struggle to borrow money.

For a lot of people in India, Brazil and China, a mortgage would be like loan-shark-repellant.

We all benefit from their poverty, so perhaps we should not be too broad-minded, Let's face it - where else is Santa going to buy toys?

SC

China is America's biggest debt holder. And they are still buying. Perhaps a bit of study on the Chinese housing market would be in order.

I think the Chinese are propping America up for political reasons, rather than economic, Alternatively, you could see it as a Marxist war, rather than a Bismarckian war.

I don;t know how that relates to George Bush's jihad against the American tax payer, but that;s the pearls of strong drink.

SC

[kerryk]

....

A lot of people in Brazil, India and China would disagree with you as would any economist especially our own Marc Faber and of course Jim Rogers but what do they know.

My bank allows me a 3x mortgage, because it has faith in my earnings potential. The US never seems to struggle to borrow money.

For a lot of people in India, Brazil and China, a mortgage would be like loan-shark-repellant.

We all benefit from their poverty, so perhaps we should not be too broad-minded, Let's face it - where else is Santa going to buy toys?

SC

China is America's biggest debt holder. And they are still buying. Perhaps a bit of study on the Chinese housing market would be in order.

I think the Chinese are propping America up for political reasons, rather than economic, Alternatively, you could see it as a Marxist war, rather than a Bismarckian war.

I don;t know how that relates to George Bush's jihad against the American tax payer, but that;s the pearls of strong drink.

SC

It's late for me too. Hard to summon all my economic wisdom about the Chinese housing bubble being controlled by some idiots in Washington when the real problem is the unmanageable European debt. I didn't think I would see another President as bad as Bush so soon. But if BO defaults on my debt I am going home and join a militia.

Edited July 29, 2011 by kerryk

[StreetCowboy]

...

I think the Chinese are propping America up for political reasons, rather than economic, Alternatively, you could see it as a Marxist war, rather than a Bismarckian war.

I don;t know how that relates to George Bush's jihad against the American tax payer, but that;s the pearls of strong drink.

SC

It's late for me too. Hard to summon all my economic wisdom about the Chinese housing bubble being controlled by some idiots in Washington when the real problem is the unmanageable European debt. I didn't think I would see another President as bad as Bush so soon. But if BO defaults on my debt I am going home and join a militia.

You are lucky that British citizens felt strongly enough about the matter to write into your constitution the right to do so (to bear arms against the state). I don't think that property prices in China owe much to American policy; rather the converse. I imagine the Chinese would rather suppress the bubble by investing in worthless foreign equities, or moon shots, or olympic games, or anything to prevent the money being spent on improving the lot of the peasant, lest he find time to sit back an dwell on inequities.

Anyway, that is a bit f a digression from the OP, which was about bashing the krauts on behalf of the in-laws. For people who have ten-year-old britsh male children; what do they have in lieu of Commando Comics nowadays? Who is our traditional enemy nowadays?

SC

[kerryk]

...

I think the Chinese are propping America up for political reasons, rather than economic, Alternatively, you could see it as a Marxist war, rather than a Bismarckian war.

I don;t know how that relates to George Bush's jihad against the American tax payer, but that;s the pearls of strong drink.

SC

It's late for me too. Hard to summon all my economic wisdom about the Chinese housing bubble being controlled by some idiots in Washington when the real problem is the unmanageable European debt. I didn't think I would see another President as bad as Bush so soon. But if BO defaults on my debt I am going home and join a militia.

You are lucky that British citizens felt strongly enough about the matter to write into your constitution the right to do so (to bear arms against the state). I don't think that property prices in China owe much to American policy; rather the converse. I imagine the Chinese would rather suppress the bubble by investing in worthless foreign equities, or moon shots, or olympic games, or anything to prevent the money being spent on improving the lot of the peasant, lest he find time to sit back an dwell on inequities.

Anyway, that is a bit f a digression from the OP, which was about bashing the krauts on behalf of the in-laws. For people who have ten-year-old britsh male children; what do they have in lieu of Commando Comics nowadays? Who is our traditional enemy nowadays?

SC

In China, Mortgage Slaves Curse U.S. Debt: World View

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-21/in-china-mortgage-slaves-curse-u-s-debt-world-view.html

Edited July 29, 2011 by kerryk

[StreetCowboy]

...

I think the Chinese are propping America up for political reasons, rather than economic, Alternatively, you could see it as a Marxist war, rather than a Bismarckian war.

I don;t know how that relates to George Bush's jihad against the American tax payer, but that;s the pearls of strong drink.

SC

It's late for me too. Hard to summon all my economic wisdom about the Chinese housing bubble being controlled by some idiots in Washington when the real problem is the unmanageable European debt. I didn't think I would see another President as bad as Bush so soon. But if BO defaults on my debt I am going home and join a militia.

You are lucky that British citizens felt strongly enough about the matter to write into your constitution the right to do so (to bear arms against the state). I don't think that property prices in China owe much to American policy; rather the converse. I imagine the Chinese would rather suppress the bubble by investing in worthless foreign equities, or moon shots, or olympic games, or anything to prevent the money being spent on improving the lot of the peasant, lest he find time to sit back an dwell on inequities.

Anyway, that is a bit f a digression from the OP, which was about bashing the krauts on behalf of the in-laws. For people who have ten-year-old britsh male children; what do they have in lieu of Commando Comics nowadays? Who is our traditional enemy nowadays?

SC

http://www.bloomberg...world-view.html

Oh aye, sure, post something from someone that knows what they;re talking about... Where;s the fun in that?

My understanding is:

- Interest rates are set by the government, in order to balance their payments

- Higher interest rates encourage investment in the currency, and hence strengthen the currency

- So if the Chinese government is raising interest rates, either they are short of money, or they want to raise the value of their currency.

The problem that the Chinese proletariat faces is that the Chinese government has tied its economic strategy to its biggest buyer (we like to call them customers, in other industries they are referred to as 'addicts') and in order to maintain their position relative to the supplier (peasant) the government (dealer) has to do things that might seem counter-intuitive to the rest of us (idiots and thickwits)

So. To summarise. I don't know. I can;t even guess.

SC

[smokie36]

I'm waiting for minimum wages to decrease. Then I'm declaring my new identity as a performing seal.

[StreetCowboy]

I'm waiting for minimum wages to decrease. Then I'm declaring my new identity as a performing seal.

Its no good. Every bloke in every pub in Bangkok is a SEAL, or going commando, or he flew in in the seventies with SAS, or he's an Ancient Marine.

I was in a hotel once, and I'm not one for living by stereotypes, despite the impression I ... ok, fair enough, but I;d never been to a European holiday resort other than Portobello. So anyway, I had assumed that since every sun lounger had a hotel towel on it, that this was courtesy of the hotel. This German lady came over and said she'd put the towel there, and in so doing, felt entitled to that lounger. I said, well while it was very kind of her, possession was nine tenths of the law and if she wanted to maintain a claim, she should maintain possession, but she was welcome to a square go. She went off muttering, and I felt just like Sir Douglas Baader. How sad is that? And I kept her towel. It was like the Sudetenland all over again.

SC

I suppose, out of humility, I should admit - whose queen is it anyway?

[smokie36]

I'm waiting for minimum wages to decrease. Then I'm declaring my new identity as a performing seal.

Its no good. Every bloke in every pub in Bangkok is a SEAL, or going commando, or he flew in in the seventies with SAS, or he's an Ancient Marine.

I was in a hotel once, and I'm not one for living by stereotypes, despite the impression I ... ok, fair enough, but I;d never been to a European holiday resort other than Portobello. So anyway, I had assumed that since every sun lounger had a hotel towel on it, that this was courtesy of the hotel. This German lady came over and said she'd put the towel there, and in so doing, felt entitled to that lounger. I said, well while it was very kind of her, possession was nine tenths of the law and if she wanted to maintain a claim, she should maintain possession, but she was welcome to a square go. She went off muttering, and I felt just like Sir Douglas Baader. How sad is that? And I kept her towel. It was like the Sudetenland all over again.

SC

I suppose, out of humility, I should admit - whose queen is it anyway?

An accompanying soundtrack to your post.

Edit: Only mildly influenced by an early try....I'm playing it again its 10-0....

Edited July 29, 2011 by smokie36

[sharecropper]

Thanks for that link. I hadn't even given China a thought when head-shaking in disbelief at the looming US default.

The increasing bitterness and polarity of politics in the US, where the country itself is the biggest loser, reminds me of the woeful state of politics in Thailand. Except in Thailand they'd have a military coup about now.

[wintermute]

I think actually the weak dollar has had less effect than in the past; a lot of Thailand's tourist exports go to Europe, where the Euro is strong because of the relatively high interest rates necessary to sustain their deficits. Only the CHinese have been really willing to support the devaluation of the US$, simly because otherwise their peasantry would start to become wealthy and expect freedom and suffregency, as well as rice and motorbikes

SC

Thailand's largest export partners.

Exports - commodities: textiles and footwear, fishery products, rice, rubber, jewelry, automobiles, computers and electrical appliances

Exports - partners: US 10.9%, China 10.6%, Japan 10.3% (2009)

Import partners

Imports - partners: Thailand 0%, Japan 18.7%, China 12.7%, Malaysia 6.4% (2009)

Very little of Thailand's economy hinges on the EU but the Thai-German conflict will manifest in other ways. The EU is still infinitely more respectable than the Thai government.

[wintermute]

A lot of people in Brazil, India and China would disagree with you as would any economist especially our own Marc Faber and of course Jim Rogers but what do they know.

Those are great performing emerging economies whose own rise depends strongly on the performance on the g8 developed world. Developing countries don't exist in their own economic sphere. Just because they are rising doesn't mean they will soon overtake the world.

Brazil, India, and China still have endemic developing world issues such as major corruption, shoddy infrastructure, and questionable competitiveness.

Compare the GDPs sometime to realize that a lot of the emerging economy hype is just hype. Investment bankers and stock brokers salivate every time someone buys into it.

[tailspin]

This is complete nonsense....where do these lunatics come from....unless of course he is having us on!

I'm not sure what the value of the THB has to do with anything, but it will be a long time before Thailand catches up to Japan.

It has a lot to do with it. Strong economy strong currency not brain science. I willnot go into everything that was making Thailand a strong economy and strong currency for I am sure someone as wise as you already knows all this right.

[SomTumTiger]

"Tomorrow and tomorrow and tomorrow,

Creeps in this petty pace from day to day

To the last syllable of recorded time,

And all our yesterdays have lighted fools

The way to dusty death. Out, out, brief candle!

Life's but a walking shadow, a poor player

That struts and frets his hour upon the stage

And then is heard no more: it is a tale

Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury,

Signifying nothing."

[jackr]

Debt as % of GDP

Germany 142%

UK 400%

Netherlands 471%

Ireland 1103%

Australia 200%

US 95%

Thailand 26%

I feel sorry for people that can't get a mortgage...

I feel sorry for people who pull figures out of thin air. UK debt is around 80-90%, about the same as Germany. But all that has nowt to do with the op. If Thailand doesn't do the right thing and put its hand in its pocket instead of doing the norm - avoiding accountability and trying to save face - they will ultimately lose both ways. And tough titties to that.

[robblok]

Germany's GDP in dollar terms is $2.94 trillion

They are a world leader in industrial machinery, luxury vehicles, and an integral part of the EU's economy.

Thailand's GDP in dollar terms is $586 billion

The country does not lead in anything in particular but has a fairly robust manufacturing sector.

Germany would eat Thailand's lunch any day of the week. Plus the risk of pissing off Germany is that other EU nations can/will follow suit as well as the U.S. getting involved if it gets serious enough to levy international sanctions.

Debt as % of GDP

Germany 142%

UK 400%

Netherlands 471%

Ireland 1103%

Australia 200%

US 95%

Thailand 26%

The dutch debt % of GDP is 63% where do you get your figures from ? Others are also complaining about your figures. Made a mistake somewhere.

Also the US has more then 100% then GDP. Seems like you got your figures mixed up

Germany around 78% damm your figures are way of mark

Edited July 30, 2011 by robblok

[Dag]

What if the mercs stop coming ??

[Dag]

TTT.....I like it......Tough Titties Thailand......

[kerryk]

Germany's GDP in dollar terms is $2.94 trillion

They are a world leader in industrial machinery, luxury vehicles, and an integral part of the EU's economy.

Thailand's GDP in dollar terms is $586 billion

The country does not lead in anything in particular but has a fairly robust manufacturing sector.

Germany would eat Thailand's lunch any day of the week. Plus the risk of pissing off Germany is that other EU nations can/will follow suit as well as the U.S. getting involved if it gets serious enough to levy international sanctions.

Debt as % of GDP

Germany 142%

UK 400%

Netherlands 471%

Ireland 1103%

Australia 200%

US 95%

Thailand 26%

The dutch debt % of GDP is 63% where do you get your figures from ? Others are also complaining about your figures. Made a mistake somewhere.

Also the US has more then 100% then GDP. Seems like you got your figures mixed up

Germany around 78% damm your figures are way of mark

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_external_debt

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2079rank.htm

This is a list of countries by external debt, the total public and private debt owed to, or invested by, nonresidents repayable in foreign currency, goods, or services,[1] where the public debt is the money or credit owed by any level of government, from central to local, and the private debt the money or credit owed by private households or private corporations based in the country under consideration.

[Orac]

Thailand is no longer the hub of cheap labour that it used to be. Watch where the clothing manufacturers go, they always jump first. At the moment they, including the Thai owned companies, are moving their manufacturing to Vietnam.

I know of two major importers of clothing to the UK who are currently relocating production from Southern India to Cambodia and setting up factories there - one of which is Chinese owned. One of them has been importing from Vietnam for the last 3 years already. Neither has felt it was economically viable to manufacture in Thailand for a number of years.

[robblok]

Germany's GDP in dollar terms is $2.94 trillion

They are a world leader in industrial machinery, luxury vehicles, and an integral part of the EU's economy.

Thailand's GDP in dollar terms is $586 billion

The country does not lead in anything in particular but has a fairly robust manufacturing sector.

Germany would eat Thailand's lunch any day of the week. Plus the risk of pissing off Germany is that other EU nations can/will follow suit as well as the U.S. getting involved if it gets serious enough to levy international sanctions.

Debt as % of GDP

Germany 142%

UK 400%

Netherlands 471%

Ireland 1103%

Australia 200%

US 95%

Thailand 26%

The dutch debt % of GDP is 63% where do you get your figures from ? Others are also complaining about your figures. Made a mistake somewhere.

Also the US has more then 100% then GDP. Seems like you got your figures mixed up

Germany around 78% damm your figures are way of mark

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_external_debt

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2079rank.htm

This is a list of countries by external debt, the total public and private debt owed to, or invested by, nonresidents repayable in foreign currency, goods, or services,[1] where the public debt is the money or credit owed by any level of government, from central to local, and the private debt the money or credit owed by private households or private corporations based in the country under consideration.

Ok so your going to put private debt in a thread about a government not wanting to pay. That figures from a guy like you. The debt i was talking about was government debt.

[wandrinstar]

Wheres Thailand..?.

[kerryk]

Debt as % of GDP

Germany 142%

UK 400%

Netherlands 471%

Ireland 1103%

Australia 200%

US 95%

Thailand 26%

The dutch debt % of GDP is 63% where do you get your figures from ? Others are also complaining about your figures. Made a mistake somewhere.

Also the US has more then 100% then GDP. Seems like you got your figures mixed up

Germany around 78% damm your figures are way of mark

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_external_debt

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2079rank.htm

This is a list of countries by external debt, the total public and private debt owed to, or invested by, nonresidents repayable in foreign currency, goods, or services,[1] where the public debt is the money or credit owed by any level of government, from central to local, and the private debt the money or credit owed by private households or private corporations based in the country under consideration.

Ok so your going to put private debt in a thread about a government not wanting to pay. That figures from a guy like you. The debt i was talking about was government debt.

This is a list of countries by external debt, the total public and private debt owed to, or invested by, nonresidents repayable in foreign currency, goods, or services,