Tropical Storm Emily expected to form in the Atlantic on Sunday

Tropical Storm Emily expected to form in the Atlantic on Sunday

2011-07-31 13:47:34 GMT+7 (ICT)

MIAMI (BNO NEWS) -- Forecasters at the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) are monitoring a weather system in the Atlantic which is expected to become a tropical storm on Sunday, and could then strengthen into a hurricane next week.

Forecasters at the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) have been following the weather system since Thursday evening when it emerged as a tropical wave between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. It has quickly become better organized over the past few days.

As of early Sunday morning, the system was centered about 675 miles (1086 kilometers) east of the Lesser Antilles. "Satellite images and buoy data indicate that the large low pressure system [..] is continuing to become better organized, and it could be close to becoming a tropical depression," said NHC hurricane specialist Robbie Berg.

The NHC, in its latest forecast, indicated a near 100 percent chance of the tropical wave becoming a tropical depression later on Sunday. "Tropical cyclone watches or warnings would likely be required for parts of the Lesser Antilles if the low becomes a tropical cyclone later today, and interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress of this system," Berg added.

Unofficial weather models show the system will likely become a tropical depression on early Sunday morning and strengthen into tropical storm Emily just several hours later. Most models also agree that the system would then likely strengthen into a hurricane within several days.

Numerous islands in the Lesser Antilles could be threatened by the storm if it continues to strengthen as expected, and the system could then move towards Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and Haiti. Weather models later next week will determine whether there is a threat to the U.S. East Coast.

If the system strengthens into a tropical storm as expected, Emily would be the fifth named storm of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season, following Tropical Storm Don which made landfall on the south Texas coast on late Friday evening, causing no casualties and no significant damage.

According to figures released in May, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is expecting an above-normal hurricane season in the Atlantic this year. The outlook calls for 12 to 18 named storms, with six to ten becoming hurricanes and three to six expected to become a major hurricane (category 3 or higher).

An average Atlantic hurricane season produces 11 named storms, with six becoming hurricanes and two becoming major hurricanes. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30, with peak activity in September.

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