Thailand reportedly today has an unemployment rate of under 2%. This is a complete anathema because under-employement is enormous. Just look at your local homepro or central and see the thousands standing around doing essentially nothing on 185 to 215 baht a day. However, don't believe that this idea to raise the wage to 300 hasn't been thought through.

One could look at this extremely cynically and believe there is an idea to ruin the country, or one could look at the demographics of the rural areas and realise that these places are absolutely dying on their feet. I worked in an agricultural company for many years, and the average age of the farmers (husband and wife) that we had supplying us was 46. The kids have left the villages and an enormous amount of them are working in Bangkok eaking out an existence on 200 baht a day. Meanwhile, the factories in Isaan and the North are literally crying out for labour. I know for a fact that a certain shoe manufacturer in central issan already pays more than 300 a day, and cannot find labour. My old company cannot find any new workers at all this year, just outside Korat. I recently heard that Toyota has bought 600 rai of land near Khon Kaen, so I expect a lot of their experienced labour to relocate. Nikon will open an enormous plant in Korat, and I hear that Honda is contemplating opening up there too. Why? Because that is where the labour in these factories comes from. 300 a day is a pittance to these companies, but they will bring literally thousands of jobs back to the regions. The existing factories around Bangkok can be upgraded with more automation, which as yet hasn't been done because labour has been so cheap.

The way that the minimum wage has been used in Thailand is essentially wrong. There has been a massive move of labour to Bangkok and the Eastern seaboard and industry has flourished, which has left the regions moribund of labour and eventually the regions will be wastelands without any young labour at all. So, this goes hand in hand with raising the guaranteed rice price (we can argue about the rights and wrongs of dems v PTP style for doing so), but there is an enormous family network still just about standing in the regions which can accommodate returning unemployed. And you know what, they now have a guaranteed income, for rice, while rubber and cassava have increased massively in value in the last 3 years.

I never said that a blanket raise of the minimum wage to 300 was the best idea, I simply pointed out how employers can exploit it by bringing in foreign labour. I have never believed this idea that "we cannot find local worker to do the job". I worked on farms in the summmer in the UK to earn pocket money, British people swept streets and waited tables for hundreds of years. Today the vast majority of those jobs have been taken by immigrants, because these jobs have been bid down to "the minimum" by an extra supply of imported labour.

So what do I see happening if the wages go up to 300 baht tomorrow. There will be some job losses in Bangkok and the eastern seaboard and quite a few people will return up country back to the village. They will go back to working on the farms with all time high prices for rubber, sugar, and now rice, and probably make a better living and have a better quality of life than working on a building site in Bangkok for 192 baht. If the government can bring new investment in and push it up into the regions, there will be some semi experienced labour available for supply.

Will inflation go nuts? Well that is the issue. I doubt very much that informal labour in agriculture will demand 300 because the families will been replenished with some extra labour. PTP will encourage more rice production in Isaan moving away from the 3 crop system in the centre of the country. The rural areas will be replenished with young to middle aged people, and the amount of people productive in agriculture will increase, and an average bar or office in Bangkok will lose some employees. Construction will be a hard one because they really pay minimum, but then they should invest in more machinery instead of relying on flip flop clad labour. Maybe I am being simplistic, but there is a place for agriculture in this country, just not at the prices that were being paid by the buyers in Bangkok. Rather luckily, China is about to have a massive rice crop failure due to drought in the central regions, so 15k per ton isn't far away from feasible.

Someone else called me a professor, I would never claim it myself. However, having worked in several international companies here where the profit margins were enormous because of the low cost of labour, I don't see it being the catastrophe you predict. Some companies will fold of course, but if they couldn't survive on 192 baht a day for labour, well what can one say. I don't see a minimum wage as something that should be considered a living wage, but a wage that prevents exploitation. As I mentioned in my post, using the minimum wage as an excuse to bring in Burmese or Cambodian labour, is a gross abuse of the people here.

If it was explained to the Thai people that all imported labour was to be banished from the country, and all jobs must pay at least 300 baht to prevent Thais being exploited, I think you might be surprised how difficult it would be for any business owner to admit that he wouldn't try to get behind it.

The problem with your story is that it focusses on farmers and big companies like Toyota, Nikon. The businesses that will be hardest hit with the 300 baht wage hike will be the Small and Medium Enterprises upcountry. I would think that these businesses take the major share of employment opportunities in Thailand. If they start raising their prices and/or laying off their staff I am not optimistic about the economic and social consequences.

It will not be the farmers or the big companies that will be hurt most.

The reason I talk about this, is because where will the newly unemployed minimum wage workers go? I don't doubt that the SME businesses will be effected, however, many of these are family owned, and as such there may be some job losses, but a lot of the profits in these companies are internalised among many family members to keep income tax payments low, and reduce profits anyway to reduce tax payments.

Where are the big growth potentials in the country for employment? FDI. The Japanese are continuing to invest apace, and when you talk about a company like Toyota coming to a place like Khon Kaen, or Nikon to Korat it can literally bring thousands of well paid jobs, then add in the associated house rentals, and spending in a city, this gives an enormous boost to a city. One reason for this move I heard only yesterday, is that the unions in the car factories are very strong, and the companies are worried about strikes and sabotage of vehicles if they don't cave to the workers demands for continuous 6 month bonuses.

My issue was, what will the newly unemployed minimum wage worker do? On the basis that a very large amount of the minimum wage workers in Thailand are migrants from the poorest regions of the country, a lot will go home. However, going home in this context isn't that disastrous when married to very high agricultural commodity prices along with PTP's minimum price guarantee. All I am trying to estimate is what "may" happen, with cause and effect. Yelling "disastrous" from the top of the hill may be valid, but I see it a little differently. A very big mouse has told me that the one time 300 baht for the whole country is already privately off the table. PTP and Yingluk will have to wear the political fall out. It will most likely be put up in 30 baht increments, year on year.

There is a huge dislocation of family and society which has been caused by such rapid expansion around Bangkok and the Eastern seaboard. So a lot of workers would accept going closer to home, for less money, the companies would love it because they get to get away from unions, the government puts in the train lines to help ship the goods, and the country regenerates the regions, and slowly the wealth can get spread around the country.

If I can see the logic in it, don't believe that these politicians are all that dumb.

A lot of people can't even get the minimum wage rate *now*. So is the the new rate be enforced? Will illegal migrant workers be sent home? The answers are obvious. There are no plans to do this, it was "just a campaign speech".

Thailand reportedly today has an unemployment rate of under 2%. This is a complete anathema because under-employement is enormous. Just look at your local homepro or central and see the thousands standing around doing essentially nothing on 185 to 215 baht a day. However, don't believe that this idea to raise the wage to 300 hasn't been thought through.

One could look at this extremely cynically and believe there is an idea to ruin the country, or one could look at the demographics of the rural areas and realise that these places are absolutely dying on their feet. I worked in an agricultural company for many years, and the average age of the farmers (husband and wife) that we had supplying us was 46. The kids have left the villages and an enormous amount of them are working in Bangkok eaking out an existence on 200 baht a day. Meanwhile, the factories in Isaan and the North are literally crying out for labour. I know for a fact that a certain shoe manufacturer in central issan already pays more than 300 a day, and cannot find labour. My old company cannot find any new workers at all this year, just outside Korat. I recently heard that Toyota has bought 600 rai of land near Khon Kaen, so I expect a lot of their experienced labour to relocate. Nikon will open an enormous plant in Korat, and I hear that Honda is contemplating opening up there too. Why? Because that is where the labour in these factories comes from. 300 a day is a pittance to these companies, but they will bring literally thousands of jobs back to the regions. The existing factories around Bangkok can be upgraded with more automation, which as yet hasn't been done because labour has been so cheap.

The way that the minimum wage has been used in Thailand is essentially wrong. There has been a massive move of labour to Bangkok and the Eastern seaboard and industry has flourished, which has left the regions moribund of labour and eventually the regions will be wastelands without any young labour at all. So, this goes hand in hand with raising the guaranteed rice price (we can argue about the rights and wrongs of dems v PTP style for doing so), but there is an enormous family network still just about standing in the regions which can accommodate returning unemployed. And you know what, they now have a guaranteed income, for rice, while rubber and cassava have increased massively in value in the last 3 years.

I never said that a blanket raise of the minimum wage to 300 was the best idea, I simply pointed out how employers can exploit it by bringing in foreign labour. I have never believed this idea that "we cannot find local worker to do the job". I worked on farms in the summmer in the UK to earn pocket money, British people swept streets and waited tables for hundreds of years. Today the vast majority of those jobs have been taken by immigrants, because these jobs have been bid down to "the minimum" by an extra supply of imported labour.

So what do I see happening if the wages go up to 300 baht tomorrow. There will be some job losses in Bangkok and the eastern seaboard and quite a few people will return up country back to the village. They will go back to working on the farms with all time high prices for rubber, sugar, and now rice, and probably make a better living and have a better quality of life than working on a building site in Bangkok for 192 baht. If the government can bring new investment in and push it up into the regions, there will be some semi experienced labour available for supply.

Will inflation go nuts? Well that is the issue. I doubt very much that informal labour in agriculture will demand 300 because the families will been replenished with some extra labour. PTP will encourage more rice production in Isaan moving away from the 3 crop system in the centre of the country. The rural areas will be replenished with young to middle aged people, and the amount of people productive in agriculture will increase, and an average bar or office in Bangkok will lose some employees. Construction will be a hard one because they really pay minimum, but then they should invest in more machinery instead of relying on flip flop clad labour. Maybe I am being simplistic, but there is a place for agriculture in this country, just not at the prices that were being paid by the buyers in Bangkok. Rather luckily, China is about to have a massive rice crop failure due to drought in the central regions, so 15k per ton isn't far away from feasible.

Someone else called me a professor, I would never claim it myself. However, having worked in several international companies here where the profit margins were enormous because of the low cost of labour, I don't see it being the catastrophe you predict. Some companies will fold of course, but if they couldn't survive on 192 baht a day for labour, well what can one say. I don't see a minimum wage as something that should be considered a living wage, but a wage that prevents exploitation. As I mentioned in my post, using the minimum wage as an excuse to bring in Burmese or Cambodian labour, is a gross abuse of the people here.

If it was explained to the Thai people that all imported labour was to be banished from the country, and all jobs must pay at least 300 baht to prevent Thais being exploited, I think you might be surprised how difficult it would be for any business owner to admit that he wouldn't try to get behind it.

The problem with your story is that it focusses on farmers and big companies like Toyota, Nikon. The businesses that will be hardest hit with the 300 baht wage hike will be the Small and Medium Enterprises upcountry. I would think that these businesses take the major share of employment opportunities in Thailand. If they start raising their prices and/or laying off their staff I am not optimistic about the economic and social consequences.

It will not be the farmers or the big companies that will be hurt most.

And in Thailand, like all countries the majority of the workforce is employed by small business.

Also fact, from global and country specific quality research, something like 80% of new small businesses fail within 3 to 6 months, and about 10% of that same 'batch' fail within 12 to 18 months.

Putting this another way, most of the quick failures are close to bankuptcy on the day they start and there is no 'fat' to be able to pay big wage hikes, and quickly there is an extra unplanned / unexpected cost which closes the door. And pretty much the same can be said for the ones that cling on a bit longer.

Don't expect anyone to listen to reason...

Sorry I did not read all the posts.

This article is an anti thesis to the other one, "Public sector may gain from graduate pay rise"

It sounds to me like the recruiters are in fear of losing their jobs by this latest announcement!

Oh gee! Let me think! We need recruiters to get stupid people jobs! But now people will have to get off their <deleted> and learn and actually compete for jobs, and the lowest common denominator will rise to a level that will put recruiters out of the picture because employers will be flooded with quality and not quantity.

It reminds me of the real estate agents in the USA. Their time is coming to an end. The time of the middle man is swiftly becoming a de facto extinction. Recruiters are vampires and they deserve to be finished. Their original intentions have been drowned out by their greed and avarice. When someone is educated and they have toe goods to deliver they don't need a yapping dog to herald their abilities!

Raise the wage and you attract quality! If there is no quality, you don't hire! The people who want that plum job will get the idea and overcome / improvise / adapt and do what it takes to be qualified to get that job. It's just like snooker; raise the stakes and the amateurs step back.

The question is; What is the Thai government going to do with a large population of under trained, under achieving human beings who are demanding some kind of assistance to be able to be qualified. dam_n! Did I say that? Will Thais actually demand to get assistance to be qualified? And to what extent? To know when to put down their mangoes and sticky rice and say hello to the customer who just walked through the door? Or to actually know all the products they represent and be able to tell/show the customer where that product is? or to NOT say "Mai Mee" when in fact the product is right above their head on the shelf? I do know that in the USA in times of large lay offs the government developed training opportunities and gave grants to people to learn new skills. The thing is these training opportunities were taken seriously.

That's the thing about Thailand. Why is it that every time I read about some opportunity being funded, that I shake my head in disbelief (like the cynic I am) that any decent and good intention will be ripped to shreds and the recipients will never reap the benefits because all the funding will be milked for all its worth to the point that the needy will get nothing?

Sorry Thailand. I love you to bits. But dam_n! Sometimes you leave me shaking my head like I am in a bad dream; trying to outrun the wolves, and my legs are in syrup, and I awake with my legs entangled in my blanket.

You increase salaries to attract quality - not minimum wage.

You increase salaries to attract quality - not minimum wage.

I agree. The quality will come later, but only after the worth of having such a job, and raising the quality of education to get that job, makes it feasible. No one is going to aim for a target that is not worth aiming for. And some won't even be inspired to greatness if apples aren't falling out of the tree and hitting them on the head. That's the way I see it for now, anyways.