Tropical Depression Ten forms in the far eastern Atlantic, no threat to land

[News_Editor]

Tropical Depression Ten forms in the far eastern Atlantic, no threat to land

2011-08-25 17:04:08 GMT+7 (ICT)

MIAMI (BNO NEWS) -- Tropical Depression Ten formed in the far eastern Atlantic on early Thursday morning, forecasters said, but posing no threat to land. The depression is forecast to strengthen.

Forecasters at the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) have been following the weather system since it emerged as a large low pressure area about 300 miles (482 kilometers) southeast of the Cape Verde Islands. It quickly became better organized and strengthened into a depression on early Thursday morning.

"The area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave several hundred miles (kilometers) west-southwest of the southern Cape Verde Islands has acquired sufficient organization to be declared a tropical depression," said NHC hurricane specialist Todd Kimberlain. "The center appears to be located near the northeast tip of a curved band wrapping around the western semicircle."

As of 5 a.m. EDT (0900 GMT), the center of Ten is estimated to be about 435 miles (700 kilometers) west-southwest of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands. It is moving toward the west-northwest at a speed near 13 miles (20 kilometers) per hour, with a turn toward the northwest expected on Friday.

"The depression should decelerate on a west-northwestward and then northwestward course during the next day or two as it nears the western edge of a low- to mid-level ridge over the far eastern Atlantic," Kimberlain said. "Global models show a weakness in the ridge along 35W in 2 to 3 days which should become more pronounced as a mid- to upper-level trough begins to dig southward over the northeast Atlantic. This should cause the track of the cyclone to turn toward the north-northwest and possibly the north later in the forecast period."

Maximum sustained winds of Ten are near 35 miles (55 kilometers) per hour, with higher gusts, according to forecasters. "Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is likely to become a tropical storm later today," Kimberlain said.

"Even though the depression should track over warm enough waters during the next couple of days, analysis from [the University of Wisconsin-Madison Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (UW-CIMSS)] currently show [17 to 23 miles or 31 to 37 kilometers per hour] of northeasterly shear over the depression which is forecast by the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) model to continue," the weather expert said.

Kimberlain said a temporary reduction of the shear could occur on Saturday, which normally would allow strengthening, but the abrupt turn of the weather system toward the north-northwest will bring it over cooler waters, reducing its chances to strengthen further. "Weakening is indicated after that time in light of the negative environmental factors the cyclone is forecast to encounter," he added.

In any case, Ten will remain far from any land.

Ten is the tenth storm of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season, following Irene which formed east of the Leeward Islands on Saturday and remains active as a major category three hurricane over the northwestern Bahamas. If Ten strengthens into a tropical storm as expected, it will be given the name Jose.

According to figures released earlier this month, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is expecting an above-normal hurricane season in the Atlantic this year. The outlook calls for 14 to 19 named storms, with seven to ten becoming hurricanes and three to five expected to become a major hurricane (category 3 or higher).

An average Atlantic hurricane season produces 11 named storms, with six becoming hurricanes and two becoming major hurricanes. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30, with peak activity in September.

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