The (Near) Imminent Collapse Of The (Southern ) Euro

[theblether]

In my opinion, the Vatican pulled a master-stroke when they elected Pope John Paul ll, ( before I go any further I'm not known for having great sympathy with the Catholic Church, but credit where credit is due ). I believe he was the first non-Italian Pope of the 20th Century, and was certainly the first Pope representing a Communist country.

He gave consistent hope to the the people of Poland and it is no coincidence that the first real reform movement in the Communist Bloc that had any legs was Solidarity, led by Lech Walesa. The Catholic Church in Poland was a catalyst for the movement, and the national pride and reconnection with with the Catholic Faith due to the election of Pope John Paul ll created one of the earliest chinks in the supposed omnipotence of the Soviet Union.

Hence the election of Pope John Paul ll was pivotal in bringing down communism. Nothing stands in isolation though, Reagan playing Calling My Bluff, Thatcher swinging her handbag, Andropov realizing that the Soviets were bankrupting their economy and still not winning the arms race, amongst a myriad of other factors all came together to bring down European Communism.

Edited December 2, 2011 by astral
No need to quote the entire post. Just pick out the relevant points, please - Astral

[theblether]

But this analysis has left out one nation that does have an interest in starting a war. Or possibly starting a war through a proxy such as Israel. This would of course be the US, and the likely target of their aggressions is Iran. This would likely draw in China and Russia on the other side, because the spoils of this war are so valuable to everyone. So it could be irrelevant whether other nations want a war. The fact is in order to maintain its position as empire of the day, the US needs to guarantee its energy reserves. This means controlling Saudi Arabia and the Straits of Hormuz.

I'm sure they will try internal regime change first, but with all the sabre rattling over Iran's nuclear ambitions, one can only assume that a full scale invasion will be tried when and if that fails. To a failing empire, the danger of the war is outweighed by the danger of losing their position of global dominance. And once a war has begun, it is largely irrelevant who started it. The Chinese will invade SE Asia because they need to shut down US access to bases in the region that can easily reach them. This has relatively little to do with whether China wants a war or not.

And yes, I fully agree that a demagogue will likely arise somewhere to trigger this whole thing. But if I were a betting man I would bet he would arise in the states. The country is ripe for it, and as the economic decline continues this is only going to become more likely. As an American with family still over there, that scenario very much scares me. Should the Euro collapse and spread the contagion to the states (and there is really no realistic scenario where it is contained to Europe), it may really exacerbate this situation. I am not optimistic that we have 30 or 40 years before things get very, very bad for all of us.

According to Wikileaks, the King of Saudi Arabia implored the US to bomb Tehran. If there is going to be a pre-emptive strike on Iran the US will do it themselves. They will earn public condemnation by many in the Islamic world, and a private round of applause from the leaders of the same countries.

Edited December 2, 2011 by astral
No need to quote the entire post. Just pick out the relevant points, please - Astral

[ExpatOilWorker]

blether, it is way too early for you to hit the keyboard, get a few Jack&Coke and come back after midnight.

Trust me the 6.5 trillion bbls of oil will never see daylight. It is just not extractable oil, but heavy bitumen in small concentrations. To put it in perspective then the US has produced about 220 billion bbls of oil since oil was discovered about 150 years ago.

It is similar to the 6.4 trillion tons of Gas Hydrates (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clathrate_hydrate), very staple and not commercial to produce.

Enough about oil, back to analyzing the flash point of the next war or local conflict in Asia.

Edited December 2, 2011 by astral
No need to quote the entire post. Just pick out the relevant points, please - Astral

[harryfrompattaya]

According to Wikileaks, the King of Saudi Arabia implored the US to bomb Tehran. If there is going to be a pre-emptive strike on Iran the US will do it themselves. They will earn public condemnation by many in the Islamic world, and a private round of applause from the leaders of the same countries.

Some say the deal is already made Israel Saudi and US

Edited December 2, 2011 by astral
No need to quote the entire post. Just pick out the relevant points, please - Astral

[theblether]

blether, it is way too early for you to hit the keyboard, get a few Jack&Coke and come back after midnight.

Trust me the 6.5 trillion bbls of oil will never see daylight. It is just not extractable oil, but heavy bitumen in small concentrations. To put it in perspective then the US has produced about 220 billion bbls of oil since oil was discovered about 150 years ago.

It is similar to the 6.4 trillion tons of Gas Hydrates (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clathrate_hydrate), very staple and not commercial to produce.

Enough about oil, back to analyzing the flash point of the next war or local conflict in Asia.

ok ok !!

Edited December 2, 2011 by astral
No need to quote the entire post. Just pick out the relevant points, please - Astral

[roamer]

Somewhere out there waiting to happen....

Edited December 1, 2011 by roamer

[BuddhistDruid]

While I have no doubt this blog is going to be hugely unpopular with many of the pundits on this site, anyone seriously interested in this topic really should read John Michael Greer's essay this week where he talks about why resources trump the "can do" spirit. The people of Europe will likely survive the imminent collapse of the Euro, but as for the lifestyle we take for granted...well that is going to change immeasurably. Who can guess what events will transpire in the future as the desperation finally takes hold across the globe? But it is almost certain that there are going to be many, many more losers than winners in the coming future.

http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com/2011/11/pepperspraying-future.html

[theblether]

While I have no doubt this blog is going to be hugely unpopular with many of the pundits on this site, anyone seriously interested in this topic really should read John Michael Greer's essay this week where he talks about why resources trump the "can do" spirit. The people of Europe will likely survive the imminent collapse of the Euro, but as for the lifestyle we take for granted...well that is going to change immeasurably. Who can guess what events will transpire in the future as the desperation finally takes hold across the globe? But it is almost certain that there are going to be many, many more losers than winners in the coming future.

http://thearchdruidr...ing-future.html

A very good article which reinforces the point made by expatworker about the difficulty of extracting oil, and my point about how I fear for the future of private transportation. There is no doubt in anyone's mind that the Age of Oil will come to a close at some point, and the world economy will change dramatically with it. The question is when........and the proviso being that there may be advances in fuel technology that replace oil, but I doubt that.

Equally there will never be a shortage of electricity output, so the times of the relatively recent past in the West where winter was looked upon with fear and trepidation will never return. We won't freeze to death in our beds.

The US had always had a fundamental misunderstanding of the British Empire, and of the British psyche, and that comes through in the article with the references to Britain, the Wars and Empire, however I'm not going to get into that. The writer has also seriously misunderstood the popularity of the monastic lifestyle over the centuries, to paint it as a reflection of the human spirit is so far left field it's ridiculous. Once again I'm not getting into that, I'll be here all week!!

This so called Decline of the West, and the fall of Europe, is garbage. I'm currently reading Greek and Roman mythology and let me tell you there is no new story under the Sun. The problem with the Greeks at the moment is that they did go on a wild orgy of unaffordable spending, and more fool the people who lent them the money.

The previous post referring to Sovereign nations losing the right to operate their own economies was quite right. When I lived in Germany I recall that the Bundesbank effectively told the politicians how much was available to spend and the politicians costed their programmes accordingly. I remember at the time thinking that was a fantastic idea, as the politicians come and go but the central bank is there forever. The UK has endured decades of topsy turvy spending, Gordon Brown came to the Exchequer promising prudence at every turn, and promised to honour the 4 year spending plan of the previous Conservative government. To be fair to Gordon Brown, a fellow Scot who I despise with a passion I may add, he stuck to his promise and his 4 year spending commitment. Then at the 2002 Budget he unleashed a torrent of spending that to all intents and purposes bankrupted Britain. A scandalous and I would say criminal abuse of public office.

I remember Bill Clinton managed to balance the economy around 1997, who would have believed it? The US with a balanced economy? But being Bill he then enjoyed the most expensive BJ in human history. Saddam Hussein saw that Clinton was being besieged by the impeachment process and took his chance to kick out Hans Blick and the other UN weapons inspectors. I am of the opinion that he would never have attempted that if Clinton was on the ball, and by dint, there would have been to Iraq War. As I said, the most expensive BJ in human history.

Anyway I digress, if you study human history it has always been full of dread and fear. The topic is on Europe so I'll stick to that. Go right back to the Greeks and their fear of the Gods, through to the fear of the Roman invasions. Followed by the dreadful fear of the invasions by Attila the Hun, who died of a nosebleed on his wedding night, getting too excited with his virgin bride, so then Roman Pope, ( one of three Popes at the time ) claimed it was his divine intervention that struck down this great warrior, and the Roman Catholic Church then became a feared and omnipotent power throughout Europe. The Viking invasions, followed by the fear of the Rise of Islam resulting in the Crusades, the Fall of Constantinople and the end of the Eastern Papacy, which then unleashed the truly untrammelled abuse of power by the Borgias empire. The Fear of Spanish domination, followed by the Fear of French domination around the time of the Sun King, the terror in Britain of the potential invasion of the French Revolutionary forces, the fear of Russian domination resulting in the Crimean war as the Russians craved a warm weather port amongst other things, hence their interest in keeping Iran onside among other reasons ( nothing changes much huh? ), the Fear of British Imperialism, the Fear of Germany expansionism that resulted in WWl, the Fear of Nazism WWll, the Fear of Communism , the terror of imminent nuclear war, ( do you remember the pictures of the hands of the doomsday clock being moved closer to midnight lol ), the Fear of Aids, Bird Flu, Nostradamus, the Millenium Bug, the Rise of Islam ( again, told you there's nothing new under the sun ) etc etc etc etc

Humans have always lived with fear, it's fear that motivates us,and it motivates us into a "Can Do" attitude. If the alternative is "Can't Do" then go place an order for 7 billion lengths of rope, we may as well end it all now.

So what was that you were saying about a financial crisis in Southern Europe?

[ExpatOilWorker]

Interesting connections and despite all the suffering in the historical events you mention, we have only fear itself to fear.

You remind me of this guy:

Edited December 2, 2011 by astral
No need to quote the entire post. Just pick out the relevant points, please - Astral

[theblether]

Thanks very much, I've got a marginally better dress sense though

Edited December 2, 2011 by astral
No need to quote the entire post. Just pick out the relevant points, please - Astral

[astral]

Considering this thread is about the possible demise of the Euro

it seems to be straying a long way off course.............

In an attempt to bring it back to the subject.

This week's Telegraph weekly world edition (Nov. 30 - Dec. 6) has a story on p. 2 headlined "Prepare for collapse of euro, Foreign Office tells embassies". British embassies in the eurozone have been told to draw up plans to help British expatriates through any collapse of the single currency, amid renewed fears for Italy and Spain.... British ministers privately warned that the break-up of the euro, once almost unthinkable, is now increasingly plausible... Diplomats are preparing to help Britons abroad through a banking collapse and even riots arising from the crisis... The Treasury confirmed that contingency planning for a collapse was under way, and a senior minister has now disclosed the extent of the Government's concern, saying Britain is planning on the basis that a euro collapse is just a matter of time... Britons [abroad may be] unable to access bank accounts or even withdraw cash, facing rioting and social unrest".

[theblether]

Considering this thread is about the possible demise of the Euro

it seems to be straying a long way off course.............

In an attempt to bring it back to the subject.

This week's Telegraph weekly world edition (Nov. 30 - Dec. 6) has a story on p. 2 headlined "Prepare for collapse of euro, Foreign Office tells embassies". British embassies in the eurozone have been told to draw up plans to help British expatriates through any collapse of the single currency, amid renewed fears for Italy and Spain.... British ministers privately warned that the break-up of the euro, once almost unthinkable, is now increasingly plausible... Diplomats are preparing to help Britons abroad through a banking collapse and even riots arising from the crisis... The Treasury confirmed that contingency planning for a collapse was under way, and a senior minister has now disclosed the extent of the Government's concern, saying Britain is planning on the basis that a euro collapse is just a matter of time... Britons [abroad may be] unable to access bank accounts or even withdraw cash, facing rioting and social unrest".

Scary

[theblether]

I was just reading an article on the BBC website which refers to the economic collapse in Argentina

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-15981406

I recall George Soros and his cronies leading a charge against the UK membership of the ERM and he forced the UK out. It could well happen again, but people forget that in the case of the UK it was a good thing for the economy. It started one of the longest runs of growth in UK history.

I need to get a life, I'm away out for a beer

[jombom]

Brits are weird.

When the Euro started (or shortly after) a GBP was 1.50 euro. Now it's about 1.12.

But Brits still say, Britain should never have joined the Euro. ---- Bonkers.

The Brits need to be educated about Sterling, which originally, was not British at all.

[Spee]

The Fed, courtesy of that puppet cum idiot Bernanke, and resultant from the radical politicization of the organization under Bush-2 and the Bamster, has agreed to print billions of USD in an effort to (artifically) prop up the Euro, because individual countries aren't allowed to print money individually. And believe me, if they could, they would.

While this game playing pays some short term political dividends, in the long term, it is bad for the Euro, worse for the citizens of Europe and worse still for the USD and the citizens of the USA. Everyone will end up paying dearly in terms of inflation, which is perhaps the worst possible form of taxation because it taxes prosperity and success more than anything else.

The Euro will continue to be in deep doo-doo until EU member countries cut entitlements, drastically slash the size of national budgets, and break into a conservative fiscal policy and allow the principles of free market capitalism to flourish. Capitalism never repressed anyone. Capitalism never prevented anyone from enjoying the God-given inalienable rights. Capitalism never prevented anyone from trying to make a better life for themselves.

[SimonD]

The Brits need to be educated about Sterling, which originally, was not British at all.

That's almost amusing. Can you back it up?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pound_sterling

[Spee]

But Brits still say, Britain should never have joined the Euro. ---- Bonkers.

Pfffftt.

Staying away from the Euro is the smartest fiscal decision the British government has made in many, many years. Britain is already a big enough welfare state in and of itself. Had they joined the Euro party, they would find themselves in the same position that the German government finds itself, which is bailing out all of fiscally irresponsible welfare states of Europe (Greece, Spain, Portugal, et al).

[exeter]

The dire state that the Dollar, the Euro and £ are in at the moment is not good for any of us and they are all tied together. The US employment figures are a better sign. If the Germans and the French can cobble something worthwhile for the Euro in the coming weeks that will also be good. If the UK can show some inroads into its debts then maybe this nosedive to diaster can be averted.

THese southern members were never in compliance and should never have been allowed to join but for political reasons they were, now that mess is having to be cleared up its costly but neccessary.

Hpw does it affect us here? 3 Huge export markets that have seen a great contraction, its bound to affect the country's economy. Us here, well inflation is taking its toll here and at home the govts are looking for ways to take more of our money either by reducing benefits or raising taxes, the next few years do not look good, time for us to tighten our belts. If we were back in our homelands we would be tightening them a lot more so I am glad to be here, another beer anyone? Got to keep the economy moving!

[Samuian]

I am very sorry to bust that bubble; but the nations currently in trouble in Europe won't be allowed to return to their previous currencies. Simply because this would mean the end of the Euro and very likely the EU with it; all the Euro skeptics will be proven right (they have been claiming this would happen from the get go) and the EU and Euro will loose whatever meager support they still enjoy at the moment.

And the end of the EU and Euro would mean a major set back for the globalist NWO movement (as they have been planning the EU and Euro for more then 50 years now). A far more likely scenario (one which is actually unfolding right before our eyes) is that the entire EU will suffer for a long time to come where bailout after bailout (consisting of tax payer money) will be needed to for the troubled nations to make their interest payments to the banks and other institutions. And while the big corporations will enjoy the the fire sale of anything worth selling from Greece (and likely Portugal and Ireland to follow), the standard of living across the entire EU will be drastically reduced.

Get your gold now....

well, well, well ... it's about getting first the financial grip and with thtis much needed leverage and the next step woul be the neutralization of local governments to create a "US of E" with one central government in brussels and strong commerce lobby!

Mr.Ackermann CEO of DB just held a speech wich was pointing exactly in this direction!

And until there is no proper leverage, the citizens of every nation of the EU would protest to secure the rights they're used to, nobody would trust a "foreign" government, that's the real problem behind it all!

That and few more reasons are the base why a "US of E" will never work, at least not in the near future!

Paul Krugman wrote an interesting detailed article about this problem comparing the EU with the US...!

Edited December 3, 2011 by Samuian

[Naam]

Brits are weird.

When the Euro started (or shortly after) a GBP was 1.50 euro. Now it's about 1.12.

But Brits still say, Britain should never have joined the Euro. ---- Bonkers.

The Brits need to be educated about Sterling, which originally, was not British at all.

why spoil interesting rants with facts?

[Pedzie]

Considering this thread is about the possible demise of the Euro

it seems to be straying a long way off course.............

In an attempt to bring it back to the subject.

This week's Telegraph weekly world edition (Nov. 30 - Dec. 6) has a story on p. 2 headlined "Prepare for collapse of euro, Foreign Office tells embassies". British embassies in the eurozone have been told to draw up plans to help British expatriates through any collapse of the single currency, amid renewed fears for Italy and Spain.... British ministers privately warned that the break-up of the euro, once almost unthinkable, is now increasingly plausible... Diplomats are preparing to help Britons abroad through a banking collapse and even riots arising from the crisis... The Treasury confirmed that contingency planning for a collapse was under way, and a senior minister has now disclosed the extent of the Government's concern, saying Britain is planning on the basis that a euro collapse is just a matter of time... Britons [abroad may be] unable to access bank accounts or even withdraw cash, facing rioting and social unrest".

And one of the architects of the euro admitting what every normal person has knew all along... The euro was flawed from the start...

Mr Jacques Delors, interviewed by the Telegraph

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-16016131

[theblether]

Correct,

It's also interesting to note that the politicians such as Delors and Kohl who were the main drivers of European integration and the Euro were the among the last of the War generation.

The main thrust of European integration was fear of War, the French were fed up of getting done in every few years, and the Germans were a combination of mortified by their behaviour during the last War and distrustful of their own scorpion nature.

So once again fear was the driving factor behind the Euro, and the European project. Fear has a lot to do with the conduct of history.

IMHO the concept of European integration is a fabulous thing, and I don't have a problem with the concept of the Euro with one simple proviso. Every country that joined should have been forced to stick to the original rules. Even Germany started to manipulate the terms of the original treaty when short termism suited them. I bet they are regretting that now.

Earlier I alluded to the historical fear factor that has permeated throughout Europe, European societies have long memories, ( every society does ), and the greatest single mistake made by these worthy gentleman who drove the European project forward was...............it was far too quick.

Peoples need at least a lifetime to get used to these ideas, not a couple of decades. There would have been nothing wrong with the French, Germans and Benelux countries starting the Euro process, and allowing other countries to join later, even decades later.

They were in too much of a rush to pull off a grandiose scheme and in the rush they snake bit the entire project, and now the poison has reached the heart.

A folly born of fear.

Edited December 3, 2011 by astral
No need to quote the entire post. Just pick out the relevant points, please - Astral

[astral]

Some off topic posts have been removed.

[Spee]

Hpw does it affect us here? 3 Huge export markets that have seen a great contraction, its bound to affect the country's economy. Us here, well inflation is taking its toll here and at home the govts are looking for ways to take more of our money either by reducing benefits or raising taxes, the next few years do not look good, time for us to tighten our belts.

These are good points worth discussing.

When I send my wife money every payday, there is a big difference between $300 USD for 10k ThB and $330 USD for 10k ThB. When we built our home, we were getting 40 ThB to the USD. It would be hard to afford to do as much now.

With respect to the in-country local economies, I don't know that Euro or USD fluctuation have that much impact. Whem members of my family came over for my wedding recently, they commented on how vibrant the local economies are. IMHO, this is to be naturally expected, because it is largely a cash economy with a minimum of central government intervention. As many have seen, Thailand may have many people who are relatively poor, but lack of food and rampant hunger due to poverty are not widespread problems.

We do feel the effects of inflation and costs of some goods and services. Costs for diesel, rice, electricity and other essentials are up. We need to replace our aging pickup, but the costs of new cars is prohibitively high. With the flooding in Ayutthaya shutting down the auto manufacturing plants, I can't see the price of new cars going down. But is there any correlation to the problems with the Euro and USD? Dunno.

[Pedzie]

Correct,

It's also interesting to note that the politicians such as Delors and Kohl who were the main drivers of European integration and the Euro were the among the last of the War generation.

The main thrust of European integration was fear of War, the French were fed up of getting done in every few years, and the Germans were a combination of mortified by their behaviour during the last War and distrustful of their own scorpion nature.

So once again fear was the driving factor behind the Euro, and the European project. Fear has a lot to do with the conduct of history.

IMHO the concept of European integration is a fabulous thing, and I don't have a problem with the concept of the Euro with one simple proviso. Every country that joined should have been forced to stick to the original rules. Even Germany started to manipulate the terms of the original treaty when short termism suited them. I bet they are regretting that now.

Earlier I alluded to the historical fear factor that has permeated throughout Europe, European societies have long memories, ( every society does ), and the greatest single mistake made by these worthy gentleman who drove the European project forward was...............it was far too quick.

Peoples need at least a lifetime to get used to these ideas, not a couple of decades. There would have been nothing wrong with the French, Germans and Benelux countries starting the Euro process, and allowing other countries to join later, even decades later.

They were in too much of a rush to pull off a grandiose scheme and in the rush they snake bit the entire project, and now the poison has reached the heart.

A folly born of fear.

So what does the future hold for the Euro and indeed the EU, if the currency is to work then all countries must adhere to strict fiscal policy dictated by Germany, somehow I don't think the people of Europe will like this one bit, as you mention societies have long memories.

Personally I detest the whole EU idea, all countries are to different in many ways to be able to work in unison. In this day of austerity and cost cutting etc I think it's a disgrace countries like the UK pumping 18 billion pounds into the EU (in 2010)..What we pay the EU every year could drastically reduce our national debt.

One thing I have learned about European governments is that they don't listen to their people, my French,German,Dutch friends all HATE the euro and have done since day one.

As mentioned above the whole idea was pushed thru to quick, and now it's the ordinary people of Europe who will have to pay, I pity the German taxpayer.

The whole EU should be scrapped, we all sign free trade agreements ( is this not what the whole idea was about in the first place!!)

And the EU is ILLEGAL under UK law.

Who votes for people like Van rompuy and Barroso ?? Certainly not the people of Europe!

[jombom]

The Brits need to be educated about Sterling, which originally, was not British at all.

That's almost amusing. Can you back it up?

http://en.wikipedia..../Pound_sterling

Sure ---- wikipedia is good but not infallible

This "Easterling" consisted of five towns in the eastern part of Germany which banded together in the 12th century under the name of the Hanseatic League. The Hanseatic League proceeded to engage in considerable commerce with England. In payment for English cattle and grain, the League used their local currency. This currency was in the form of 92.5% silver coins. England soon learned that these coins, which they referred to as "the coins of the Easterlings", were of a reliably high quality and hardness.

Source Indigo silver.

[roamer]

The Brits need to be educated about Sterling, which originally, was not British at all.

That's almost amusing. Can you back it up?

http://en.wikipedia..../Pound_sterling

Sure ---- wikipedia is good but not infallible

This "Easterling" consisted of five towns in the eastern part of Germany which banded together in the 12th century under the name of the Hanseatic League. The Hanseatic League proceeded to engage in considerable commerce with England. In payment for English cattle and grain, the League used their local currency. This currency was in the form of 92.5% silver coins. England soon learned that these coins, which they referred to as "the coins of the Easterlings", were of a reliably high quality and hardness.

Source Indigo silver.

"The earliest attestation of the term is in Old French form esterlin, in a charter of the abbey of Les Préaux, dating to either 1085 or 1104."

Source Wikipedia.

Whatever, still don't see how we need to be educated about sterling ?

To go back on topic. I think it was Nigel Lawson said years ago something like "...the Euro is a complex financial arrangement entered into for purely political reasons ". Its only now that the true complexities of it are starting to appear. Think back to the panic amongst Europe's leaders at the announcement of a Greek referendum on it and how quickly they made certain that was not going to be.

Imagine you have Euro's sitting in the bank and you face the prospect of them being turned into a much devalued drachma....your going to be hammering at the door to get your money out in Euro's, money the banks can't produce. Nightmare scenario.

The death of the Euro is one thing. Trying to arrange an orderly funeral will be something else. As it is with wars, its the exit strategy that proves to be troublesome.

How will it affect Thailand ? Well if it should all dissolve in a mess, the one thing that is a certainty is that the mechanics that lie behind ATM payments will falter to put it mildly. How keen will Thai banks be to do deals in a currency that might be disappearing ? Cue, stranded tourists. That's short term.

Long term. Absolute disaster. Although this prediction comes back to the adage of trying to tattoo a soap bubble. However I can see no way in which the demise of the Euro is going to benefit Thailand or Asia in general, the fear of the future will be enough to burst the bubble in mass tourism to places like Thailand. Lets face it, LOS benefited from a "feelgood" feeling in Europe that is not very much in evidence at the moment, nor is that likely to return for a long time. Holidays are on the back burner for many folk, job security, pensions, cost of living, these are the things that tend to attract attention at present.

Tourism from Asia ? Well if the Euro goes tits up then China & others will feel the chill too. That's also on the back of what many others feel to be a move away from globalisation, many differing factors driving that but there is no doubt it would have room to grow in the absence of the Euro.

I know if I was a tourist during this period of uncertainty I would make sure I had some "rescue" currency, preferably in the form of American Express $ travellers cheques. The much maligned dollar will still bale you out, so should sterling but maybe too aligned with the Euro to be certain.

[Orac]

snip...........

As mentioned above the whole idea was pushed thru to quick, and now it's the ordinary people of Europe who will have to pay, I pity the German taxpayer.

............ snip

I am not sure that the German taxpayer is the right place for your sympathy. It needs to be remembered that Germany has benefitted enormously from the Euro as they managed to exchange a very strong DM based soley on the strong German economy for a much weaker Euro which encompassed several underperforming states. This made German exports much more competitive on the international market than they would have been had they retained the DM and has reinforced their dominant position in Europe.

The problem they face now is that, should the Eurozone break up in some way, whatever currency they end up with will almost certainly be stronger than they have now and could hit their export led economy very hard.

[thaibeachlovers]

Considering this thread is about the possible demise of the Euro

it seems to be straying a long way off course.............

In an attempt to bring it back to the subject.

This week's Telegraph weekly world edition (Nov. 30 - Dec. 6) has a story on p. 2 headlined "Prepare for collapse of euro, Foreign Office tells embassies". British embassies in the eurozone have been told to draw up plans to help British expatriates through any collapse of the single currency, amid renewed fears for Italy and Spain.... British ministers privately warned that the break-up of the euro, once almost unthinkable, is now increasingly plausible... Diplomats are preparing to help Britons abroad through a banking collapse and even riots arising from the crisis... The Treasury confirmed that contingency planning for a collapse was under way, and a senior minister has now disclosed the extent of the Government's concern, saying Britain is planning on the basis that a euro collapse is just a matter of time... Britons [abroad may be] unable to access bank accounts or even withdraw cash, facing rioting and social unrest".

Can someone explain to me how a EURO collapse would affect my Sterling money? Surely would have no effect on my ability to exchange Sterling for baht. If it gets that bad, many of us here will be in the deep doo doo. Perhaps I am misreading this post.

Anyway, sooooooo glad I cashed my Euros months ago. Not often I make the right decision when it comes to exchanging money ( changed my Sterling at 46 in 1996- rats ).

[theblether]

Correct,

It's also interesting to note that the politicians such as Delors and Kohl who were the main drivers of European integration and the Euro were the among the last of the War generation.

The main thrust of European integration was fear of War, the French were fed up of getting done in every few years, and the Germans were a combination of mortified by their behaviour during the last War and distrustful of their own scorpion nature.

So once again fear was the driving factor behind the Euro, and the European project. Fear has a lot to do with the conduct of history.

IMHO the concept of European integration is a fabulous thing, and I don't have a problem with the concept of the Euro with one simple proviso. Every country that joined should have been forced to stick to the original rules. Even Germany started to manipulate the terms of the original treaty when short termism suited them. I bet they are regretting that now.

Earlier I alluded to the historical fear factor that has permeated throughout Europe, European societies have long memories, ( every society does ), and the greatest single mistake made by these worthy gentleman who drove the European project forward was...............it was far too quick.

Peoples need at least a lifetime to get used to these ideas, not a couple of decades. There would have been nothing wrong with the French, Germans and Benelux countries starting the Euro process, and allowing other countries to join later, even decades later.

They were in too much of a rush to pull off a grandiose scheme and in the rush they snake bit the entire project, and now the poison has reached the heart.

A folly born of fear.

So what does the future hold for the Euro and indeed the EU, if the currency is to work then all countries must adhere to strict fiscal policy dictated by Germany, somehow I don't think the people of Europe will like this one bit, as you mention societies have long memories.

Personally I detest the whole EU idea, all countries are to different in many ways to be able to work in unison. In this day of austerity and cost cutting etc I think it's a disgrace countries like the UK pumping 18 billion pounds into the EU (in 2010)..What we pay the EU every year could drastically reduce our national debt.

One thing I have learned about European governments is that they don't listen to their people, my French,German,Dutch friends all HATE the euro and have done since day one.

As mentioned above the whole idea was pushed thru to quick, and now it's the ordinary people of Europe who will have to pay, I pity the German taxpayer.

The whole EU should be scrapped, we all sign free trade agreements ( is this not what the whole idea was about in the first place!!)

And the EU is ILLEGAL under UK law.

Who votes for people like Van rompuy and Barroso ?? Certainly not the people of Europe!

I can't answer what the future of the Euro is going to be but for the rest of the post +1