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There's Method In The Thai Government's Madness


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There's method in the government's madness

By Tulsathit Taptim

On Twitter: @tulsathit

Why is the Yingluck government in such a hurry? That's the question we are hearing everyday and everywhere we go, and it doesn't refer to economic policies. Within days of assuming office, the prime minister is seeing the back of the national police chief without having to even criticise his performance. Moreover, a campaign to bring her big brother Thaksin home is gaining serious momentum despite initial speculation that she would save the most explosive controversy for last.

Why so? Our Political Desk talked to a high-ranking source in the Pheu Thai Party and come up with the following conclusions:

The police chief blitz was necessary for technical reasons. The person the government wanted to replace Wichean Potephosree with has only one year left before his mandatory retirement. This means the government had to move quickly, or Pol General Priewpan Damapong would not be legally qualified for the top police post. In other words, the government could not afford a protracted controversy that could eat into the precious little time Priewpan has left.

Political factors favour the government going for broke where Thaksin is concerned. The source suggested the Yingluck government did not want to repeat the "Samak mistake". Late prime minister Samak Sundaravej waited and waited and waited until it was too late.

Apparently, the current thinking among Pheu Thai strategists is that Thailand's political environment means any government's popularity is likely to be very short-lived, so any election mandate should be exercised as soon as possible. Making an early push for Thaksin's return has certainly sparked criticism, but the Yingluck government would rather face criticism now, than when its popularity has eroded.

The Samak factor has been reinforced by other key factors, one being the virtual indifference of the yellow shirts. The movement has stayed true to its pre-election word - that Thaksin is now the Democrat Party's problem - and the government is apparently exploiting the situation. Most importantly, having the Democrats oppose Thaksin's return is easier to cope with than having the People's Alliance for Democracy organise months-long street protests.

The weakened resolve of the yellow shirts also coincides with the split among the Thai media. During Thaksin Shinawatra's last days in power, the Thai media were in unison about his serious shortcomings. Now, newspapers are divided over whether his virtues can compensate for his flaws. Some news organisations have welcomed Yingluck Shinawatra's rise to power with open arms, while others are scrutinising her every step. The same goes for the plan to find a way to let Thaksin come home without having to go to jail. Some believe the plan constitutes exploitation of democracy, but others insist it's the only practical way to bring back political peace.

Chalerm Yoobamrung is another reason the Yingluck government has to push hard. Having decided to let the deputy premier lead the campaign to get Thaksin home, the government naturally has to allow him to play his game. Chalerm is aggressive, not afraid of bad publicity and doesn't care if he creates more enemies. Once Chalerm goes down a road, it's make or break. The only thing the government has to do is create an environment conducive to his style, or at least tolerate his style. And that's why Chalerm is being allowed to bulldoze his way toward the previously lofty goal of an amnesty for Thaksin.

So, the government has chosen a fast-track approach, taking advantage of a disorganised opposition and its still-fresh democratic mandate. It could be the right strategy, as criticism so far has shown no sign of transforming into organised resistance. Nor has the risk of the wheels coming off presented itself. But we rarely get advanced warning for that kind of thing, do we?

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-- The Nation 2011-09-09

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a previously unmentioned aspect that accounts for the Yingluck Rush....

"The police chief blitz was necessary for technical reasons.

The person the government wanted to replace Wichean Potephosree with has only one year left before his mandatory retirement. This means the government had to move quickly, or Pol General Priewpan Damapong would not be legally qualified for the top police post. In other words, the government could not afford a protracted controversy that could eat into the precious little time Priewpan has left."

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".......... to let Thaksin come home without having to go to jail.................... it's the only practical way to bring back political peace."

Yes, it's called appeasement. Peace in our time. Followed by WWII.

Appeasing thugs has not got a very good track record of success.

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".......... to let Thaksin come home without having to go to jail.................... it's the only practical way to bring back political peace."

Yes, it's called appeasement. Peace in our time. Followed by WWII.

Appeasing thugs has not got a very good track record of success.

I reckon it's a non-article.

You don't think the Chamberlain comparison is a little over the top?

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".......... to let Thaksin come home without having to go to jail.................... it's the only practical way to bring back political peace."

Yes, it's called appeasement. Peace in our time. Followed by WWII.

Appeasing thugs has not got a very good track record of success.

I reckon it's a non-article.

You don't think the Chamberlain comparison is a little over the top?

I didn't see Yingluck waving a sheet of A4 to the cheers of the onlookers!B)

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Whatever.

Your avatar looks remarkably like Dominique Strauss-Kahn. Being escorted by a Playboy "nurse" and a barbie-doll "wife".

I believe it's "young Mr. Grace" from an inane british comedy "Are you being served?" from the 1970's. Apt.

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".......... to let Thaksin come home without having to go to jail.................... it's the only practical way to bring back political peace."

Yes, it's called appeasement. Peace in our time. Followed by WWII.

Appeasing thugs has not got a very good track record of success.

I reckon it's a non-article.

You don't think the Chamberlain comparison is a little over the top?

Only in scale.

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Whatever.

Your avatar looks remarkably like Dominique Strauss-Kahn. Being escorted by a Playboy "nurse" and a barbie-doll "wife".

No resemblance to DSK. Young Mr. Grace is a role model for Pattaya's elderly gents. Just as the author of the OP was confused, so too are you.

Please see Captain Peacock to sort this out.

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".......... to let Thaksin come home without having to go to jail.................... it's the only practical way to bring back political peace."

Yes, it's called appeasement. Peace in our time. Followed by WWII.

Appeasing thugs has not got a very good track record of success.

Ozmick, a fan of hyperbole, are you?

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lol....whatever. Fast track to another gov't overthrow. Does not matter if they try bring Thoxin back tomorrow or next year. One way or another they will try bring him back and give him a full pardon. And one way or another it will once again boil over and create another crisis.

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Not so long ago the PM said, "bring back my brother is not a top priority". Well I guess now it is.:annoyed:

What she meant was "it is not just a top priority, it is the top priority..."

And Thaksin has to come home quickly, because Yingluck is already running out of ideas how to do her job. (Visiting neighbouring countries in alphabetical order is just one indication for that.)

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So they realize that they have to bring him back quickly before the smokescreen clears. Before Thailand comes to it's senses. Chilling stuff!

Still can't believe T thinks he will live happily ever after even if he comes back successfully; he'll always be looking over his back, must be more than a few Thais who want to take the justice system into their own hands. Can't say I blame them, what a curse he's turned out to be!

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Not so long ago the PM said, "bring back my brother is not a top priority". Well I guess now it is.:annoyed:

What she meant was "it is not just a top priority, it is the top priority..."

And Thaksin has to come home quickly, because Yingluck is already running out of ideas how to do her job. (Visiting neighbouring countries in alphabetical order is just one indication for that.)

Then she has to start with Greece, right? Gaa Gai, and then Kazakstan, Gaa Kai. The last Country will be Holland Hanok Hoo.She has a lot of tavelling ahead of her.

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Whatever.

Your avatar looks remarkably like Dominique Strauss-Kahn. Being escorted by a Playboy "nurse" and a barbie-doll "wife".

No resemblance to DSK. Young Mr. Grace is a role model for Pattaya's elderly gents. Just as the author of the OP was confused, so too are you.

Please see Captain Peacock to sort this out.

You're not Mrs Slocum's ex-husband by any chance?

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