Plethora Of Issues Related To Former PM Thaksin

[webfact]

BURNING ISSUE

Plethora of issues related to former PM

By Avudh Panananda

The Nation

Fugitive former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra is definitely coming home and his opponents and supporters should put aside their differences in order to avoid driving a deeper wedge in an already-divided society.

The core issue about Thaksin's homecoming is not about bending the law to rescue a fugitive but ending the misuse of one man's fate to fuel public anxiety.

So long as Thaksin remains in self-imposed exile or on the run to avoid serving his two-year jail term, political polarisation will persist. The war of political colours has evolved around one man, Thaksin, spawning a myriad of related issues.

Since 2005, street protests have erupted either for or against Thaksin. Rival camps fought on political issues designed to either put him on an altar or burn him at the stake.

The trouble began because at the height of his power, many saw Thaksin as an autocratic leader. His opponents tried but failed to remove him. As the country was embroiled in a political stalemate, the military intervened to oust him in 2006.

The seizure of power was a cardinal sin for democracy. If Thaksin was wrong in condoning runaway power, then the coup was equally wrong for overthrowing the elected government. Two wrongs did not make a right.

In the wake of the coup, the pro-Thaksin camp regrouped under the democratic banner. Slowly but steadfastly the public perception transformed from seeing him as a rogue politician to a hero spearheading democracy.

Even though Thaksin's conviction for conflict of interest and other litigation happened under due process, his legal wrangling could be traced back to the coup's mandate. Legal scholars might argue in favour of the sanctity of the law but large numbers of people see Thaksin's legal issues as political in nature.

In the court of law, Thaksin stands before Blind Justice. The court of public opinion sees him, however, as an idol embroiled in political injustice.

If his opponents can condone the coup for prosecuting him, then his supporters can surely cite the popular mandate to rescue him from his predicament.

A pardon for a convicted fugitive is rare but not without precedent.

The United States and several countries in Europe and Latin America have cited national unity as grounds for granting pardons to political-related offenders who decided on exile instead of facing punishment.

Thaksin's pardon is, no doubt, a very controversial issue. It is like a boil - painful to have and painful to lance.

The Yingluck Shinawatra government is cautiously proceeding to grant clemency for Thaksin. In fact the Abhisit Vejjajiva administration toyed with the idea of pardoning Thaksin as part of reconciliation.

But then-prime minister Abhisit set a tough condition for Thaksin to serve part of his jail term before qualifying for clemency. Last year's red-shirt riots buried the pardon idea.

As the political wind has changed to favour the pro-Thaksin camp, the pardon could happen as early as late this year to mark His Majesty's 84th birthday.

Thaksin's legal team is not worrying about engineering the pardon but how to extricate him from all his legal issues. At least two trials have been put on hold pending his return.

Should the government opt to help him in stages, Thaksin could first be pardoned for his conviction before receiving amnesty along with key players in the political conflict. Or |he could await a package clemency, which might take more than a year to work out.

-- The Nation 2011-09-13

[whybother]

Fugitive former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra is definitely coming home and his opponents and supporters should put aside their differences in order to avoid driving a deeper wedge in an already-divided society.

How about he not come home "to avoid driving a deeper wedge in an already divided society"?

[AleG]

Fugitive former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra is definitely coming home and his opponents and supporters should put aside their differences in order to avoid driving a deeper wedge in an already-divided society.

How about he not come home "to avoid driving a deeper wedge in an already divided society"?

No can do, reconciliation in his book means that the whole country must bow to his will.

What kind of autocratic megalomaniac would you be if you worried about what damage you are doing to your country for your own personal benefit?

[hammered]

Reset to pre-coup is coming. This article by someone who is not a Thaksinista is spot on and Avudhs articles usually touch on what is really happening. It is interesting to see a political neutral to soft anti-Thaksinista say all this. The split of the middle away form the extreme anti-Thaksinistas seems to be continuing as that alliance starts to crumble and a deal that keeps the defectors of this alliance on side looks increasingly likely

It is one thing Yongyuth a party member saying what he wouldnt have said a years or so ago. It is quite another to see someone such as Avudh plainly say what most Thais think. Thaksin is coming back

[Crushdepth]

Fugitive former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra is definitely coming home and his opponents and supporters should put aside their differences in order to avoid driving a deeper wedge in an already-divided society.

How about he not come home "to avoid driving a deeper wedge in an already divided society"?

He would become even more deeply wedged in the collective butt crack of society.

[lannarebirth]

I think what Thaksin misses most about Thailand is that he can purchase "thought pieces" like this for millions of dollars less than what he has to pay Robert Amsterdam and his vast array of other PR firms.

[hammered]

I think what Thaksin misses most about Thailand is that he can purchase "thought pieces" like this for millions of dollars less than what he has to pay Robert Amsterdam and his vast array of other PR firms.

Avudh is not a pro-Thaksin hack. What he writes is usually accurate in power game analysis. When he says Thaksin is coming back it shouldnt be lightly dismissed as he is not serving up pro-Thaksin propaganda. He speaks for another different group.

[lannarebirth]

I think what Thaksin misses most about Thailand is that he can purchase "thought pieces" like this for millions of dollars less than what he has to pay Robert Amsterdam and his vast array of other PR firms.

Avudh is not a pro-Thaksin hack. What he writes is usually accurate in power game analysis. When he says Thaksin is coming back it shouldnt be lightly dismissed as he is not serving up pro-Thaksin propaganda. He speaks for another different group.

If you say so. My takeaway from reading that piece is that the person writing it seemed to be deficient of logical thought and critical thinking ability. That, or they were writing what they were paid to write with little concern that it made any sense. To be fair to the author of the piece, most journalism here i regard as being pretty much the same as that..

edit: And BTW , if all these "journalists" are so adept at describing the power plays in progress, how come not a single one of the ever mentions what's really going on here or the "endgame".

Edited September 13, 2011 by lannarebirth

[OzMick]

I think what Thaksin misses most about Thailand is that he can purchase "thought pieces" like this for millions of dollars less than what he has to pay Robert Amsterdam and his vast array of other PR firms.

Avudh is not a pro-Thaksin hack. What he writes is usually accurate in power game analysis. When he says Thaksin is coming back it shouldnt be lightly dismissed as he is not serving up pro-Thaksin propaganda. He speaks for another different group.

Right, he has no bias, just a little forgetful. Hence the line "..........the coup was equally wrong for overthrowing the elected government" without mentioning that the government's mandate had expired, the PM had resigned to the head of state, unilaterally re-instated himself, and was refusing to call an election - his only duty as caretaker PM.

Of course making that clear would not be a "popular" move, could even occasion a visit from "da boys."

[Pi Sek]

From the OP:

"In the wake of the coup, the pro-Thaksin camp regrouped under the democratic banner. Slowly but steadfastly the public perception transformed from seeing him as a rogue politician to a hero spearheading democracy."

How did the public allow this to happen to their perception? Such short memories...

(Of course, the answer to that is a combination of poor performing govts - Surayudh, Samak, Somchai, Abhisit - following Thaksin's booming autocracy, for whatever reasons; and an exceptional amount of advertising.)

[Artisi]

I think what Thaksin misses most about Thailand is that he can purchase "thought pieces" like this for millions of dollars less than what he has to pay Robert Amsterdam and his vast array of other PR firms.

......... just a little forgetful. Hence the line "..........the coup was equally wrong for overthrowing the elected government" without mentioning that the government's mandate had expired, the PM had resigned to the head of state, unilaterally re-instated himself, and was refusing to call an election - his only duty as caretaker PM.

Of course making that clear would not be a "popular" move, could even occasion a visit from "da boys."

It's called selective short-term memory. Why ruin a good story by telling the truth.

[ramrod711]

I think what Thaksin misses most about Thailand is that he can purchase "thought pieces" like this for millions of dollars less than what he has to pay Robert Amsterdam and his vast array of other PR firms.

......... just a little forgetful. Hence the line "..........the coup was equally wrong for overthrowing the elected government" without mentioning that the government's mandate had expired, the PM had resigned to the head of state, unilaterally re-instated himself, and was refusing to call an election - his only duty as caretaker PM.

Of course making that clear would not be a "popular" move, could even occasion a visit from "da boys."

It's called selective short-term memory. Why ruin a good story by telling the truth.

i don't allow myself to get caught up in this any more. my new attitude is, the thai people voted, they want a convicted felon and his cohorts in power, then like people in all democracies they get the government they deserve.

[hyperdimension]

From the OP:

"In the wake of the coup, the pro-Thaksin camp regrouped under the democratic banner. Slowly but steadfastly the public perception transformed from seeing him as a rogue politician to a hero spearheading democracy."

How did the public allow this to happen to their perception? Such short memories...

(Of course, the answer to that is a combination of poor performing govts - Surayudh, Samak, Somchai, Abhisit - following Thaksin's booming autocracy, for whatever reasons; and an exceptional amount of advertising.)

I'd add bribes, and would further emphasize your phrase "exceptional amount of advertising". The masses worldwide, particularly in developing countries, can be easily manipulated. Public relations / marketing theory and techniques have come a long way since its beginnings. Thaksin was willing to pay good money to hire high profile lobbyists with the utmost expertise in such fields to advise him in his strategy to re-take power via the perception management of the Thai masses. He has been hiring such world-class PR expertise since 2007:

Barbour Griffith & Rogers Lobbying Report (2011-01-20)

Provide strategic counsel on U.S. government policy and assist with advancing the individual's desire to promote democracy in Southeast Asia.

Amsterdam & Peroff LLP Lobbying Report (2010-10-20)

Counsel and guidance with respect to Mr. Thaksin's interests in Washington, DC and abroad

Kobre & Kim LLP Lobbying Report (2010-07-19)

Baker Botts L.L.P. Lobbying Report (2007-08-14)

Develop and implement a strategic approach to the various international legal and political issues that confront Dr. Thaksin due to the coup of September 19. The firm will monitor the evolution of US polices towards the interim government in Thailand or the Administration's position regarding attempts by Dr. Thaksin's return to Thailand and may subsequently undertake contacts as necessary to ensure that such policies remain consistent with those currently in place.

Daniel J. Edelman (2007-01-25)

Source: Corporate-funded "People's" Movement

So after 4 years his investments have very much paid off for him & his empire.

Edited September 13, 2011 by hyperdimension

[whybother]

i don't allow myself to get caught up in this any more. my new attitude is, the thai people voted, they want a convicted felon and his cohorts in power, then like people in all democracies they get the government they deserve.

The Thai people voted. But it wasn't a referendum to bring back Thaksin. It was an election for a new government, and the new government didn't even get the majority of the vote.

[Roadman]

Right, he has no bias, just a little forgetful. Hence the line "..........the coup was equally wrong for overthrowing the elected government" without mentioning that the government's mandate had expired, the PM had resigned to the head of state, unilaterally re-instated himself, and was refusing to call an election - his only duty as caretaker PM.

Of course making that clear would not be a "popular" move, could even occasion a visit from "da boys."

And that very lack of democratic governance that triggered this whole mess and what the Thaksin brown noses cannot bother to understand is the very reason why he should never be allowed back in the country until he is prepared to do his sentence and stands trial for his remaining charges including his attack on Thailand and Bangkok that resulted in the deaths of 91 thai's.

[yoshiwara]

I think what Thaksin misses most about Thailand is that he can purchase "thought pieces" like this for millions of dollars less than what he has to pay Robert Amsterdam and his vast array of other PR firms.

Avudh is not a pro-Thaksin hack. What he writes is usually accurate in power game analysis. When he says Thaksin is coming back it shouldnt be lightly dismissed as he is not serving up pro-Thaksin propaganda. He speaks for another different group.

If you say so. My takeaway from reading that piece is that the person writing it seemed to be deficient of logical thought and critical thinking ability. That, or they were writing what they were paid to write with little concern that it made any sense. To be fair to the author of the piece, most journalism here i regard as being pretty much the same as that..

edit: And BTW , if all these "journalists" are so adept at describing the power plays in progress, how come not a single one of the ever mentions what's really going on here or the "endgame".

Avudh (like a whole number of capitulating academics writing in the other newspaper) is just another waffler of the 'on the one hand, on the other hand' shallow political commentators.

They think that their political capitulation dressed up as liberal wish-wash will look good for the positions of respected eminence they crave so much.

Another one pops into Thaksin's pocket. 'Hoowee! Here I am!'

[Artisi]

i don't allow myself to get caught up in this any more. my new attitude is, the thai people voted, they want a convicted felon and his cohorts in power, then like people in all democracies they get the government they deserve.

The Thai people voted. But it wasn't a referendum to bring back Thaksin. It was an election for a new government, and the new government didn't even get the majority of the vote.

Correct - but many have already forgotten what the election was really about - dismissing what Thaksin wants. I feel sorry for those who didn't vote for the people who ended up in power - they certainly don't deserve the government they ended up with.

Edited September 14, 2011 by metisdead
Do not modify someone else's post in your quoted reply, either with font or color changes.

[Insight]

i don't allow myself to get caught up in this any more. my new attitude is, the thai people voted, they want a convicted felon and his cohorts in power, then like people in all democracies they get the government they deserve.

Perhaps, but regardless of what some people speculate on here, I think you can put some very safe money on a large group of people turning out to oppose any efforts to get Thaksin off "scot-free"

The country is in the hands of crooks serving the agenda of one man and resentment is building.

[jayboy]

Avudh (like a whole number of capitulating academics writing in the other newspaper) is just another waffler of the 'on the one hand, on the other hand' shallow political commentators.

They think that their political capitulation dressed up as liberal wish-wash will look good for the positions of respected eminence they crave so much.

Another one pops into Thaksin's pocket. 'Hoowee! Here I am!'

It would be really refreshing if the opponents of Thaksin (the worst of the offenders I think) but also the supporters of Thaksin could summon up the objections they have to any journalist by addressing his arguments rather than cop out with petulant personal abuse.

[yoshiwara]

i don't allow myself to get caught up in this any more. my new attitude is, the thai people voted, they want a convicted felon and his cohorts in power, then like people in all democracies they get the government they deserve.

The Thai people voted. But it wasn't a referendum to bring back Thaksin. It was an election for a new government, and the new government didn't even get the majority of the vote.

Prior to the election, the PTP wobbled and explicitly denied that their election platform was primarily about the return of Thaksin. The result of that has been the PM at every opportunity re-stating that she is working for the people of Thailand. Thaksin therefore does not have a mandate for prioritising his return. And that is why he and tame political commentators are prowling around the edges of the political system looking for a way in that doesn't look like a manipulation of the political process. If its not a priority......

Edited September 13, 2011 by yoshiwara

[jayboy]

i don't allow myself to get caught up in this any more. my new attitude is, the thai people voted, they want a convicted felon and his cohorts in power, then like people in all democracies they get the government they deserve.

Perhaps, but regardless of what some people speculate on here, I think you can put some very safe money on a large group of people turning out to oppose any efforts to get Thaksin off "scot-free"

The country is in the hands of crooks serving the agenda of one man and resentment is building.

I have little doubt that the PAD, the yellows, the multicolours (they are all the same) could be mobilised again.It is however now very clear that this grouping initially idealistic but subsequently it seems deteriorating into a ragged mob of Chinese grannies and louts is only allowed off the leash when it suits the elite.We know for certain the PAD activity was deeply disapproved of at the most important elite levels.Anyway the key issue as regards Thaksin is what deal has already been done.If Thaksin breaches the understanding then street protests could be mobilised again.The frustrating thing for us lot is that apart from a tantalising insight from Crispin we don't know the full details, although I think it's clear Thaksin has had a sizeable part of his loot returned.

I haven't the foggiest whether Thaksin will get a pardon conditional or otherwise, but I would have thought it certain if it does materialise it will be "legal".

Insight's last sentence is interesting though muddled.The government is no more full of crooks than the last, less if anything.Yes, there is definitely a reasonable view that Thaksin is the power behind the scenes, hardly a big secret and obviously known when the Thai people gave the present government a comfortable mandate very recently.The 'resentment building' is not that obvious.We know that the elite and its mainly Sino Thai middle class hangers on loathe Thaksin and that won't change.On the whole Yingluck is making a reasonably good start, and has made some astute moves on police and military appointments (and left well alone in some cases).LM monitoring is being ramped up, cutting the ground away from one area of opposition.If the election was held again today, I am sure PTP would improve its position and the Democrats fail further.

Therefore although I don't discount a middle class return to the streets, I suspect it will be if the concordat has broken down and there's no sign of that at the moment.If it does break, then the PADsters will be unleashed again but once they have served their purpose these useful fools will be marginalised (once again).

[Insight]

I have little doubt that the PAD, the yellows, the multicolours (they are all the same) could be mobilised again.It is however now very clear that this grouping initially idealistic but subsequently it seems deteriorating into a ragged mob of Chinese grannies and louts is only allowed off the leash when it suits the elite.We know for certain the PAD activity was deeply disapproved of at the most important elite levels.Anyway the key issue as regards Thaksin is what deal has already been done.If Thaksin breaches the understanding then street protests could be mobilised again.The frustrating thing for us lot is that apart from a tantalising insight from Crispin we don't know the full details, although I think it's clear Thaksin has had a sizeable part of his loot returned.

....

This is all under the assumption that any future anti-Thaksin will take the form of the groups you suggest. Perhaps for the so-called "multis", but the PAD have definitely had their day - and it's not because love for Thaksin is on the rise. I personally wonder how much of a role social media will play in all this; despite the positive election results this is not an area the current government excels - quite the opposite, in fact.

Anyways, momentum on both sides seems to be building towards Dec 5th (dunno why that date specifically), so will be interesting to see how things develop up until then and on that date.

[nong38]

| was looking at some old westerns from the 1060's today, anyone remember * Have gun will travel"? How long , if he comes back before he meets a later day Paladin on the back of a motorcycle.

[MaiChai]

Thais have this forgive and forget mentality. I think this is appropriate when the wrong doing is fairly minor; however I just cannot forget all that has happened, and some terrible things have happened. Let me jog peoples memories for those with rose tinted glasses who want to twist things are try and portray things differently from what happened. OzMick is spot on about why the coup happened (read his posted above); I remember it well. The war on drugs and the gagging of free press. Then there was the abuse of power with the sale of AIS to Singapore. Then there was Rachada land scandle. Then there was the red shirt encampment and terrorist acts paid for by Taksin (black shirts, mortars, weapons, burning tyres, burning down Bangkok, storming hospitals, burning city halls, secret armies trained in Chiang Mai and Cambodia). Then there was the so called war with Cambodia; funny that has gone away now? More like Taksin and Hun Sen against Thailand. I just don't forget what has happened and who instigated it. How can people forget what has happened. Next we will have the Khumer Rouge repeated again with the killing of the intelligensia.

Edited September 13, 2011 by MaiChai

[ThaiOats]

Thaksin didn't do anything wrong to his supporters since the atrocities he committed didn't affect them directly. Let's not forget that the majority of Thailand is still the rural poor and the generation X are the ones still supporting him; and why shouldn't they as long as he remains on their good side. Why should the farmers and family run "businesses" care what happens on the corporate level, deaths of accused drug dealers and anything that is controversial for the country as a whole? Give them their share and give them now. So long as the PTP keeps to their promises, all is well and good. Most people don't have the time to calculate big numbers or the ability to foresee economic problems or care about moral values of what's right and wrong. Thaksin can waltz out and say "I'm going to amass a fortune through corruption, rob the taxpayers (of course not you poor people who are tax exempt), sell the country to neighbors but don't worry... you won't know the difference" and people would STILL support him. Democracy isn't for Thailand when just about anything and everything can be bought.

Edited September 13, 2011 by ThaiOats

[KKK]

the thai people voted, they want a convicted felon and his cohorts in power, then like people in all democracies they get the government they deserve.

And what does that make the people who voted for the current administration? Normally you vote for people who think or believe in the the same that you do!

Bringing back one condons the rise of milions like him. Ah..the 'crooked' Thai smile may well win again..

Edited September 13, 2011 by KKK

[looping]

Let me get this straight...

In Thailand, someone can break almost every law, kill thousands of people, etc etc, then go into self imposed exile. If they're rich enough, they can then hire a PR company, fund some civil unrest, and their convictions will then be overturned on grounds of 'National unity'.

The slate clean, they're free to carry on where they left off, at the expense of everyone else.

What a shining example Thailand is to the rest of the world.

[ThaiOats]

This in itself is an embarrassment. He's one step ahead of the game..all that's left is for the Red-Shirts to mimic this gesture and blurt out "Rak, Thaksin!".

[Buchholz]

Let me get this straight...

In Thailand, someone can break almost every law, kill thousands of people, etc etc, then go into self imposed exile. If they're rich enough, they can then hire a PR company, fund some civil unrest, and their convictions will then be overturned on grounds of 'National unity'.

The slate clean, they're free to carry on where they left off, at the expense of everyone else.

What a shining example Thailand is to the rest of the world.

That's about the size of it. Good summation.

.

[rametindallas]

"The Yingluck Shinawatra government is cautiously proceeding to grant clemency for Thaksin."

This statement alone tells me this is a propaganda peice