You Will Be Held Responsible For Huge Loss, Pridiyathorn Warns Thai Ministers

[bhakta]

I have no doubt this is a scheme to put huge money in the pockets of the political leaders of the PT incouding Taksin's closest buddies. IT will 100% harm the country financially. It is ludicrous scheme, as are several of the other schemes propagated by Mr. Taksin's buddies.

[Payboy]

This guy was an incompetent finance minister under the 2006 coup-appointed government. Why on earth is he offering macro-financial advice to the current government?

A case of the lame trying to lead the blind.

[lannarebirth]

This guy was an incompetent finance minister under the 2006 coup-appointed government. Why on earth is he offering macro-financial advice to the current government?

Because , this time the man is right on the button with his forecast... The Big guys behind this scheme will make millions and millions, the ordinary farmers will make nothing. it has been tried before with huge corruption involved, but huge payouts to the mill owners. These Big guys care nothing for Thailand or the Thai peoples.. All they care about is to line their own pockets till bursting... But they and associates, backed many of these PTP MPs and now want their payback.. In Vietnam right now , hundreds and hundreds of tons of cheap rice is waiting to be brought into Thailand , you cannot DNA rice, this will all be claimed as Thai rice and the guaranteed moneys paid to those crooks and cheats.. This plan has been in the pipeline for a long time now... It involves huge amounts of taxpayers hard earned moneys going to these cheats and crooks... I was recently in Da Nang and visited 4 huge storage units full to the roof with cheap rice, we were trying to buy this rice for aid in Pakistan, the owners told me it was already sold to Thai mill owners, why would Thailand be importing rice..? They will triple their moneys on this deal... Thank you Yinluck... so much for a stand against corruption.. and the band played on...!!! Amazing Thailand.

Interesting but not at all surprising. My suggestion is that you present these observations to one of the Op/Ed writers at one of the local papers and maybe write a letter to the editor with your observations.

Edited September 26, 2011 by lannarebirth

[animatic]

This guy was an incompetent finance minister under the 2006 coup-appointed government. Why on earth is he offering macro-financial advice to the current government?

The rice mortgage scheme was implemented under Samak, Pridiyathorn is only warning that recent history will repeat itself. It's hard to pin the blame directly on anyone; the Thai electorate knew the policy clearly before the election; the policy was transparent.

Poor Milquetoast Minkwan took most of the heat for Rice Pledging Debacle #1. Devakula was against it from the start then.

We know from history that this policy was a serious loss leader, except if you are BUYING farmer /Rice Miller loyalty and THIS is the product you intend to purchase.

Edited September 26, 2011 by animatic

[animatic]

"Losing the No 1 position also means losing foreign-exchange earnings," Pridiyathorn said while pointing out that the unrealistically high price of Thai rice will make exports difficult.

I would think that he didn't actually say this, because I would hope that the former finance minister understands price elasticity.

Are you suggesting that the loss in tonnage might be more than made up by the increased price per tonne, so as to actually be revenue positive for Thailand?

Although rice is a staple food stock, there are plenty of suppliers, and alternatives like wheat and corn. I don't think anybody expects Thailand to actually gain from this scheme.

Most advantage will flow to millers, exporters, and other system rorters with a small flow on to some lucky farmers (most likely the wealthier ones), with the cost paid by the taxpayer and some of the poorest people in the world who will find their cost of food increasing markedly.

What he is saying is that quality and availability mean nothing, if you artificially price yourself out of the market. Which is essentially the problem. They are artificially removing any elasticity they have in dealing with market flexibility.

[animatic]

This guy was an incompetent finance minister under the 2006 coup-appointed government. Why on earth is he offering macro-financial advice to the current government?

A case of the lame trying to lead the blind.

Actually he has a clue,

but also has worked for both sides of the asile.

And as with any centrists, extremes of both sides will lambaste him instantly.

Edited September 26, 2011 by animatic

[OzMick]

Why not. The total demand for exported rice in the world is held in the hand of very few producers. Do you think that Vietnam is going to hold its prices stable, or increase in line with Thailand to exploit the increase in Thai prices. It isn't as simple to say that price for Thai rice goes up, so the volume of exports will reduce proportionately. I would imagine that most rice importing countries expect to stay precisely that way, and not switch to corn or wheat because the people don't eat it, pure and simple.

There will be some drop in total exports, but to say that the total value will surely go down is not proven yet. We have seen Thai exports increasing for the last few years, despite the Thai baht continuing to rise and rise. The world has a finite amount of suppliers who can produce reliable volumes of high quality rice, Thailand being one of few.

World market in 2010

· The world's rice cultivation area for crop year 2009/10 was about 156.1 million hectares, down 1.7 million hectares compared with 2008/09. Total world rice production for 2009/10 reached 660.2 million tons, down 10.3 million tons from 2008/09. World demand for rice was about 435.2 million tons, which was similar to 2008/09. Rice exports reached 29.9 million tons, up 0.7 million tons (2.40%) compared with 2008/09. Except for the crop year 2006/07, this has been the highest level of rice exports of the world in recent years. World's ending rice stocks for 2009/10 was about 95.3 million tons, up 3.6 million tons (3.93%) over 2008/09.

· According to AGROINFO, for 2009/10 crop year, Thailand was the largest rice exporter in the world, with approximately 8.5 million tons, followed by Vietnam with 6.5 million tons. Meanwhile, the Philippines remained the biggest importer of rice in the world, with approximately 2.6 million tons, of which imports from Vietnam accounted for 75%.

http://agro.gov.vn/n...ok-for-2011.htm

So Thailand has a quarter of the total rice export business, and yet the rice trading business makes up only 29mnt of an industry that makes up 660mnt. I think we may surprisingly see that Thai rice exports withstand this price hike quite well.

You are looking at it A over T. Because the traded amount is only 5% of the total consumption/output, the market is more likely to react to price increase. Yes VN will sell at a slightly higher price and still sell more, but there is more incentive for domestic farmers to switch crops or increase acreage, and for consumers to partially switch products. And the poor will do what the poor do when the price of food increases, they eat less.

[lannarebirth]

Anyone here with a Stratfor subscription willing to post this article?

http://www.stratfor.com/podcast/thailand_rice_pledging_scheme_and_political_risks

[Thai at Heart]

Why not. The total demand for exported rice in the world is held in the hand of very few producers. Do you think that Vietnam is going to hold its prices stable, or increase in line with Thailand to exploit the increase in Thai prices. It isn't as simple to say that price for Thai rice goes up, so the volume of exports will reduce proportionately. I would imagine that most rice importing countries expect to stay precisely that way, and not switch to corn or wheat because the people don't eat it, pure and simple.

There will be some drop in total exports, but to say that the total value will surely go down is not proven yet. We have seen Thai exports increasing for the last few years, despite the Thai baht continuing to rise and rise. The world has a finite amount of suppliers who can produce reliable volumes of high quality rice, Thailand being one of few.

World market in 2010

· The world's rice cultivation area for crop year 2009/10 was about 156.1 million hectares, down 1.7 million hectares compared with 2008/09. Total world rice production for 2009/10 reached 660.2 million tons, down 10.3 million tons from 2008/09. World demand for rice was about 435.2 million tons, which was similar to 2008/09. Rice exports reached 29.9 million tons, up 0.7 million tons (2.40%) compared with 2008/09. Except for the crop year 2006/07, this has been the highest level of rice exports of the world in recent years. World's ending rice stocks for 2009/10 was about 95.3 million tons, up 3.6 million tons (3.93%) over 2008/09.

· According to AGROINFO, for 2009/10 crop year, Thailand was the largest rice exporter in the world, with approximately 8.5 million tons, followed by Vietnam with 6.5 million tons. Meanwhile, the Philippines remained the biggest importer of rice in the world, with approximately 2.6 million tons, of which imports from Vietnam accounted for 75%.

http://agro.gov.vn/n...ok-for-2011.htm

So Thailand has a quarter of the total rice export business, and yet the rice trading business makes up only 29mnt of an industry that makes up 660mnt. I think we may surprisingly see that Thai rice exports withstand this price hike quite well.

You are looking at it A over T. Because the traded amount is only 5% of the total consumption/output, the market is more likely to react to price increase. Yes VN will sell at a slightly higher price and still sell more, but there is more incentive for domestic farmers to switch crops or increase acreage, and for consumers to partially switch products. And the poor will do what the poor do when the price of food increases, they eat less.

The original question is will it cost Thailand forex if the traded volume drops in comparison with the increased price? I am sure some clever kids at Chula have plenty of stats on it, but ceteris paribus, lets wait and see. I think the demand will still be there for exported Thai rice, and probably the total USD value will remain at least the same.

Maybe the farmers won't have to sell so much to make the same profit and so will have a larger stock of rice that they keep?

[rubl]

The original question is will it cost Thailand forex if the traded volume drops in comparison with the increased price? I am sure some clever kids at Chula have plenty of stats on it, but ceteris paribus, lets wait and see. I think the demand will still be there for exported Thai rice, and probably the total USD value will remain at least the same.

Maybe the farmers won't have to sell so much to make the same profit and so will have a larger stock of rice that they keep?

Farmers mostly have no facilities to 'keep' harvested rice. That's why they sell to middleman who have (or have arranged) facilities to dry and process rice. Any extra rice farmers would keep might spoil. My seven cents that is

[OzMick]

Why not. The total demand for exported rice in the world is held in the hand of very few producers. Do you think that Vietnam is going to hold its prices stable, or increase in line with Thailand to exploit the increase in Thai prices. It isn't as simple to say that price for Thai rice goes up, so the volume of exports will reduce proportionately. I would imagine that most rice importing countries expect to stay precisely that way, and not switch to corn or wheat because the people don't eat it, pure and simple.

There will be some drop in total exports, but to say that the total value will surely go down is not proven yet. We have seen Thai exports increasing for the last few years, despite the Thai baht continuing to rise and rise. The world has a finite amount of suppliers who can produce reliable volumes of high quality rice, Thailand being one of few.

World market in 2010

· The world's rice cultivation area for crop year 2009/10 was about 156.1 million hectares, down 1.7 million hectares compared with 2008/09. Total world rice production for 2009/10 reached 660.2 million tons, down 10.3 million tons from 2008/09. World demand for rice was about 435.2 million tons, which was similar to 2008/09. Rice exports reached 29.9 million tons, up 0.7 million tons (2.40%) compared with 2008/09. Except for the crop year 2006/07, this has been the highest level of rice exports of the world in recent years. World's ending rice stocks for 2009/10 was about 95.3 million tons, up 3.6 million tons (3.93%) over 2008/09.

· According to AGROINFO, for 2009/10 crop year, Thailand was the largest rice exporter in the world, with approximately 8.5 million tons, followed by Vietnam with 6.5 million tons. Meanwhile, the Philippines remained the biggest importer of rice in the world, with approximately 2.6 million tons, of which imports from Vietnam accounted for 75%.

http://agro.gov.vn/n...ok-for-2011.htm

So Thailand has a quarter of the total rice export business, and yet the rice trading business makes up only 29mnt of an industry that makes up 660mnt. I think we may surprisingly see that Thai rice exports withstand this price hike quite well.

You are looking at it A over T. Because the traded amount is only 5% of the total consumption/output, the market is more likely to react to price increase. Yes VN will sell at a slightly higher price and still sell more, but there is more incentive for domestic farmers to switch crops or increase acreage, and for consumers to partially switch products. And the poor will do what the poor do when the price of food increases, they eat less.

The original question is will it cost Thailand forex if the traded volume drops in comparison with the increased price? I am sure some clever kids at Chula have plenty of stats on it, but ceteris paribus, lets wait and see. I think the demand will still be there for exported Thai rice, and probably the total USD value will remain at least the same.

Maybe the farmers won't have to sell so much to make the same profit and so will have a larger stock of rice that they keep?

That's half the problem - the farmer's keep growing more, but they sell less, and the stockpile has to be stored while deteriorating until its only good for (very expensive) stockfeed.

And truckloads of money keep rolling out of treasury, but disappear before they reach the farmer.

[lannarebirth]

[

You are looking at it A over T. Because the traded amount is only 5% of the total consumption/output, the market is more likely to react to price increase. Yes VN will sell at a slightly higher price and still sell more, but there is more incentive for domestic farmers to switch crops or increase acreage, and for consumers to partially switch products. And the poor will do what the poor do when the price of food increases, they eat less.

The original question is will it cost Thailand forex if the traded volume drops in comparison with the increased price? I am sure some clever kids at Chula have plenty of stats on it, but ceteris paribus, lets wait and see. I think the demand will still be there for exported Thai rice, and probably the total USD value will remain at least the same.

Maybe the farmers won't have to sell so much to make the same profit and so will have a larger stock of rice that they keep?

That's half the problem - the farmer's keep growing more, but they sell less, and the stockpile has to be stored while deteriorating until its only good for (very expensive) stockfeed.

And truckloads of money keep rolling out of treasury, but disappear before they reach the farmer.

And of course, like last time, hundreds of thousands of tons will be stolen from the warehouses and no one will know the first thing about how that happened. Must have been "dark forces".

[animatic]

[

You are looking at it A over T. Because the traded amount is only 5% of the total consumption/output, the market is more likely to react to price increase. Yes VN will sell at a slightly higher price and still sell more, but there is more incentive for domestic farmers to switch crops or increase acreage, and for consumers to partially switch products. And the poor will do what the poor do when the price of food increases, they eat less.

The original question is will it cost Thailand forex if the traded volume drops in comparison with the increased price? I am sure some clever kids at Chula have plenty of stats on it, but ceteris paribus, lets wait and see. I think the demand will still be there for exported Thai rice, and probably the total USD value will remain at least the same.

Maybe the farmers won't have to sell so much to make the same profit and so will have a larger stock of rice that they keep?

That's half the problem - the farmer's keep growing more, but they sell less, and the stockpile has to be stored while deteriorating until its only good for (very expensive) stockfeed.

And truckloads of money keep rolling out of treasury, but disappear before they reach the farmer.

And of course, like last time, hundreds of thousands of tons will be stolen from the warehouses and no one will know the first thing about how that happened. Must have been "dark forces".

Dark forces of course controlled or controlling the OPPOSITION Parties. Never those that start the game rolling. How can you blame your own side, when you can blame the other side.

Edited September 26, 2011 by animatic

[whybother]

i think you will find that the millowners/exporters of rice are one of the power bases of the old feudal system that keep the poor poor and as such PT is trying to destroy this network not profit from it. if you want to write something correct, find out the owners of the two companies who between them account for 60% of Thailands rice exports. It is likely these people are being targeted by the PT.

How is this scheme destroying these power bases? This scheme is putting the money in their hands instead in the farmers hands.

I think you'll find that the upcountry feudal system is the one that Thaksin has in his pocket. That's why PTP are targeting these companies - to make sure they get the money.

[Bagwan]

Which just goes to show that running a bank doesn't qualify someone to run a country's economy. A bit like a career diplomat making a complete hash of being foreign minister.

After the meltdown we have experienced, it looks to many that many of the World's bankers are not qualified to do much at all - except pick up large bonuses in addition to sky high salaries.

[MaiChai]

Unfortunatly these scams that politicians come up with to fleece the country coffers are not new. It just seems we have had a break from them. Now its seems we are back to business again.

So much to democracy and accountability. It would be interesting to see how the accounts of the government work; where revenue is earned and where it is spent. Clearly the poor see very little of it.

So I guess the money hits the mill owners and it never ends up in the hands of the poor farmers?

[animatic]

i think you will find that the millowners/exporters of rice are one of the power bases of the old feudal system that keep the poor poor and as such PT is trying to destroy this network not profit from it. if you want to write something correct, find out the owners of the two companies who between them account for 60% of Thailands rice exports. It is likely these people are being targeted by the PT.

How is this scheme destroying these power bases? This scheme is putting the money in their hands instead in the farmers hands.

I think you'll find that the upcountry feudal system is the one that Thaksin has in his pocket. That's why PTP are targeting these companies - to make sure they get the money.

Absolutely spot on. Payback for delivering the votes.

And the easiest way is with the coming harvest profits.

Which is why it is implemented almost as fast as getting Thaksins personal <deleted> washed clean.

Edited September 28, 2011 by animatic

[rixalex]

Im sure nobody remembers the said gentleman being finance minister in the disastrous military installed Sarayud government.

Disastrous? What exactly was disastrous about it? They had one year in which they could really make no decisions of any importance as they were simply interim. Businesses didn't want to commit to too much until after fresh elections. I think with all that they had to deal with, they did a decent enough job. More decent anyway, than other administrations that haven't had their hands tied in this way.

[animatic]

This guy was an incompetent finance minister under the 2006 coup-appointed government. Why on earth is he offering macro-financial advice to the current government?

Because they are even more incompetent.

Through the heart of the matter.