Europe Default Would Great For Farang

[Naam]

If there is a Greek default and that would be no surprise, Europe and maybe others are going to have to get into the pockets again. Should the very worst happen then the GBP and the Dollar would be negatively affected as well, as has been mentioned they are intertwined whether we like it or not.

Absolutely true... and if that would happen, unemployment would go up through the roof, their would be a worldwide financial crisis... and no Europeans / Americans would anymore be able to satisfy their investments in Thailand and those would go broke also... and no tourists would anymore be coming (we have seen the decline in tourists in 2008/9)... so the Thai Baht exchange rate would follow the Euro and $ almost immediately...

We better hope that none of the European countries goes broke... even as Swiss, the impact would be a catastrophe to our country as well...

lol what are you talking about? yes if we have deflation that is bad for all asset classes besides CASH.

anyways we shall see if they can play musical chairs for eternity.

Deflation??? What a b__s___ We are talking about a massive Recession if Greece goes bust... we are talking about a massiv loss of Cash generated by European economies... We are talking about Inflation when the Central banks worldwide put more and more money into the market in order to keep the system running....

a default of Greece does not cause a massive or any recession in Europe. period! the Greek part in European economics is ridiculously low. having said so, i don't rule out a recession in Europe. but if there's going to be one it will go hand in hand with a global recession, not connected directly to Greece or the European "PIIGS". a lot depends how the global economic locomotive China will fare in future. if China crashes commodities across the board will crash. it is up to the individual perspective to call that deflation and not take into consideration the ballistic inflationary upward move commodities performed during the last several years.

as far as deflation or inflation is concerned, the jury is still out debating and it seems they will agree to disagree because strong and galore indications exist that we can go both ways.

only a small share of actual cash has reached "the markets" whatever the central banks pumped out by quantitative easing and other means. as opposed to pre 2008, banks have been quite restrictive in issuing credit on margin. whether that will change in future remains to be seen.

my [not so] humble personal opinion, backed by observed facts but mainly on the feeling in my belly, is that we won't experience the huge inflation some gloom&doomers prophesy, especially one speaking english with a harsh schwyzer-dütsch accent who lives partly in Chiang Mai .

[Tijmen]

a default of Greece does not cause a massive or any recession in Europe. period! .

O yes it most definitely will. If they will bankrupt, France & German banks are #$cked if that happens. Interest rates for lending money for Italy, Portugal, Spain, Ireland will also go up, meaning they won't be able to afford to borrow money, and making it impossible to repay their current debt in the first place. You can see where the domino effect goes, Meaning their banks will get into trouble, and possible fall over as well, taking more European banks possible with them. Generally when banks fall over, its bad news

http://www.cnbc.com/id/43425042/The_Greek_Dominos_What_Happens_If_Greece_Defaults

I personally feel Greece should be kicked out a long long time ago, they should just have payed their taxes in the first place http://www.nytimes.c.../02evasion.html

Edited October 13, 2011 by Tijmen

[Naam]

If they will bankrupt, France & German banks are #$cked if that happens.

the only ones who have been and are fàcked are those who believe in the fairy tales spread by CNBC

[mccw]

Almost all the money in the world is basically just numbers on screens created by banks through lending. If faith in this house of cards collapses, there's not enough physical money to withdraw; banks fall, governments fall; money becomes meaningless; supply chains breakdown; no food in the shops in a matter of days; anarchy in streets making the London roots look like a public school boy picnic!

As military move to restore order and implement rationing it will be those holding physical assets who will come out on top. I'm buying gold and silver coins; weapons and stock piles of rice and other food.

If this happened I would much rather be in western Europe than anywhere else in the world.

Right now we could be in just the first steps of a grate unravelling!

First banks, now some governments are insolvent and the currently solvent ones seems hell bent on lending and linking there debt ever more to the shit that the only end point in sight is near global bankruptsey.

As soon as the Chinese and anyone with cash realises no ones ever going to repay their debts they'll drop the dollar, euro etc and put it all in to physical assets Batton down the hatches and be pioneers of a new world order based on physical trade and metal based currency similar to that of days gone past. Europe and America will be ok but most of the world will be screwed. Currency will eventually return but this creation of money from nothing should not return for many generations atleast until people forget.

Hopefully I'm wrong. I have my business and life plan operating on the projection that there will be a muddling through;- a recession or no recession but certainly 5-10 years of low growth in the west with 4-8 percent inflation probable. East rate of expsnsion slowing before picking up as the domestic population gets richer in about 8 10 years which should bring the west up along with it. Later inflation goes mad and bubble pop and we're back to the possibility of senario 1 again; only much worse consequences because of population size and difficulty managing food distribution.

I really think senario 1 is inevitable sooner or later unless technology like fusion power or something enables a new era of cheap limitless power; food can be grown inside skyscraping farms and water desalinated on a huge scale; transport, the cost of goods, everything would change; imagine.

Such a time will come; hopefully before a great collapse. Collapse could set such a golden era back decades or more, by which time population growth could further rip the fabric of society apart; indeed the world.

I get swings between optimism and pecemism but it doesn't really matter as all I can do is get on best I can and be ready incase of the worst. Are you ready?

Senario 1 rice and gold is better than bht or £

Senario 2 from a global trend perspective- bht continues to strength gradually

Senario 3 specific for Thailand is the government bankrupts the nation through more idiotic populist policies and massive corruption- bht back to 70 or 80 to the £. Right now I'd give this a 60-40 chance against sen.2 I'd give it 4-8 years. Most likely the next election and after with dr T standing will be the real bank breaker

[flying]

Almost all the money in the world is basically just numbers on screens created by banks through lending. If faith in this house of cards collapses, there's not enough physical money to withdraw; banks fall, governments fall; money becomes meaningless; supply chains breakdown; no food in the shops in a matter of days; anarchy in streets making the London roots look like a public school boy picnic!

As military move to restore order and implement rationing it will be those holding physical assets who will come out on top. I'm buying gold and silver coins; weapons and stock piles of rice and other food.

+1

Your whole post was good & I just snipped it to save space.

But basically I see it the same as you.

Edited October 15, 2011 by flying

[waza]

If there is a Greek default and that would be no surprise, Europe and maybe others are going to have to get into the pockets again. Should the very worst happen then the GBP and the Dollar would be negatively affected as well, as has been mentioned they are intertwined whether we like it or not.

Absolutely true... and if that would happen, unemployment would go up through the roof, their would be a worldwide financial crisis... and no Europeans / Americans would anymore be able to satisfy their investments in Thailand and those would go broke also... and no tourists would anymore be coming (we have seen the decline in tourists in 2008/9)... so the Thai Baht exchange rate would follow the Euro and $ almost immediately...

We better hope that none of the European countries goes broke... even as Swiss, the impact would be a catastrophe to our country as well...

lol what are you talking about? yes if we have deflation that is bad for all asset classes besides CASH.

anyways we shall see if they can play musical chairs for eternity.

Deflation??? What a b__s___ We are talking about a massive Recession if Greece goes bust... we are talking about a massiv loss of Cash generated by European economies... We are talking about Inflation when the Central banks worldwide put more and more money into the market in order to keep the system running....

my [not so] humble personal opinion, backed by observed facts but mainly on the feeling in my belly, is that we won't experience the huge inflation some gloom&doomers prophesy, especially one speaking english with a harsh schwyzer-dütsch accent who lives partly in Chiang Mai .

I agree Nam, the Greek economy is small, but a Greek default will be contageous, effecting not just europe but the US as well. As consumption drops, production will recess, including the value added products of Germany. Fiat money, stocks and bonds will all be toilet paper, the only valuable items will be comodities and food producing land. But you will still have your prayer rugs to keep you warm.

[Naam]

I agree Nam, the Greek economy is small, but a Greek default will be contageous, effecting not just europe but the US as well. As consumption drops, production will recess, including the value added products of Germany. Fiat money, stocks and bonds will all be toilet paper, the only valuable items will be comodities and food producing land. But you will still have your prayer rugs to keep you warm.

there is no doubt that Greece will go within a short time into an "orderly" default. anybody who thinks Greece can shoulder the accumulated debt is a dreamer. a Greece default will definitely cause havoc in world markets but it's only crazy market psychology. the consumer in the U.S., Mongolia or the Christmas Islands will neither gain nor lose a penny... default or not default.

Germany will not export less high-tech machinery or cars because of a Greece default but because some of the target states have already or will invoke austerity measures to reduce national debt but first and foremost because the global economic locomotive will drive considerably slower in future. if and when the latter happens speculators in (mainly consumption) commodities will look with horror at the book values of their assets because most bubbles will be pricked.

as far as food producing land is concerned (we own considerable acreage) the expectations based on a global recession are not bright at all. only ignorants conclude that a recession will cause people to eat more when they will have less disposable income in their pockets. exactly the opposite will happen.

and yes, fiat money will be toilet paper... yawnn... i heard that before... many times... since decades... mostly from people who would like to own a lot of that toilet paper...

for the record: i own only one prayer rug

[houseinbkk]

Almost all the money in the world is basically just numbers on screens created by banks through lending. If faith in this house of cards collapses, there's not enough physical money to withdraw; banks fall, governments fall; money becomes meaningless; supply chains breakdown; no food in the shops in a matter of days; anarchy in streets making the London roots look like a public school boy picnic!

As military move to restore order and implement rationing it will be those holding physical assets who will come out on top. I'm buying gold and silver coins; weapons and stock piles of rice and other food.

+1

Your whole post was good & I just snipped it to save space.

But basically I see it the same as you.

The only use of gold when utter chaos arrives as described by mccw will be to put in a sock and bash round the head of people trying to steal his rice.

To add to that, i believe that crops will still carry on growing no matter how bleak the economy is.

Surely farmland and fishing rods are the best hedge if youre truly expecting total meltdown.

[Naam]

Surely farmland and fishing rods are the best hedge if youre truly expecting total meltdown.

under present circumstances fishing rods are preferable to flooded farmland.

[MAJIC]

If you are looking at a better exchange rate here then hope that this Euro mess can be sorted out but Greece is like an engine that just keeps burning fuel as much as you can throw at it. They are unable or unwilling to take the pain for their rash lifestyle that continued unchecked even when they joined the Euro. They were always a suspect entrant and they are not alone.

I think Greece will default, and wouldn't be surprised to see Italy, Portugal, Spain and Ireland to follow.

Germany will join up with Russia and China.

Of course they will default,why else would these Bankrupt Nations join the EEC Gravy Train in the first place?

It's like Expensive Rich Mens Clubs,they never admit Paupers as Members,because they would never pay for the Membership either!

[wellred]

Assuming europe doesn't default, any chance the flooding could have a +ve effect on my £?

[Naam]

"Europe default" = misnomer! justified talk is about one country defaulting and another three financially shaky. the European Union consists of 27 (twenty-seven) countries out of which 17 (seventeen) have opted for the currency €UR.

[waza]

"Europe default" = misnomer! justified talk is about one country defaulting and another three financially shaky. the European Union consists of 27 (twenty-seven) countries out of which 17 (seventeen) have opted for the currency €UR.

Hmmm but 5 out of those 17 euro currency countries are in severe finacial trouble, and the rest of the eu have invested heavily with them.

[mccw]

Almost all the money in the world is basically just numbers on screens created by banks through lending. If faith in this house of cards collapses, there's not enough physical money to withdraw; banks fall, governments fall; money becomes meaningless; supply chains breakdown; no food in the shops in a matter of days; anarchy in streets making the London roots look like a public school boy picnic!

As military move to restore order and implement rationing it will be those holding physical assets who will come out on top. I'm buying gold and silver coins; weapons and stock piles of rice and other food.

+1

Your whole post was good & I just snipped it to save space.

But basically I see it the same as you.

The only use of gold when utter chaos arrives as described by mccw will be to put in a sock and bash round the head of people trying to steal his rice.

To add to that, i believe that crops will still carry on growing no matter how bleak the economy is.

Surely farmland and fishing rods are the best hedge if youre truly expecting total meltdown.

The meltdown senario is assuming order will be restored sooner or later and that the new currency will be metal based because of loss in faith of the value of paper or numbers on screens. In this case gold coins are a good store of wealth and silver coins a manageable size to trade for those things one hasnt managed to plan for or runs out of.

I think property ownership / land titles would still be respected and all mortgages would of evaporated; so although no rent for a time of transition you could reinstate your authority and comand rent as a landlord once things started to come together again. A house can't disappear like a share and people will always need a place to live.

At first farming amongst other things would turn to b like a war economy with rationing and then surplus beginning to be traded; but the possibility of getting rich off anything in this new economy would be slim; just more or less comfortable really. But for sure a man sitting on a farm will be a lot more comfortable than a man sitting up in his mil£ condo or council flat; unless maybe he had a big bag of gold under his bed, but he'd still need to survive the 2weeks to 2months or more chaos.

[Naam]

"Europe default" = misnomer! justified talk is about one country defaulting and another three financially shaky. the European Union consists of 27 (twenty-seven) countries out of which 17 (seventeen) have opted for the currency €UR.

Hmmm but 5 out of those 17 euro currency countries are in severe finacial trouble, and the rest of the eu have invested heavily with them.

in severe trouble is presently only one country. another one of the five PIIGS (Ireland) is, compared to a year ago, doing again quite ok. but whatever... the expression "Europe default" does not apply. period!

[nong38]

The euro club when it was set up for the Euro was like "It'll be alright on the night." because they wanted so much to have a united Europe, rules were in place, never met, promises made were broken, an accident waiting to happen. If it had been the just the northern states, Germany, UK, Ireland, Netherlands, Belguim, France and Luxenbourg they would probably got away with it bu thats not what happened. Once in the club, just carry on as before and we will meet the criteria for the Union soon. Money pumped into the infrastrcture of the not so well off states gave them a secure feeling of how well things were inside the Eurozone, after all if it all goes wrong the Union will bail us out, which really means Germany. I can remember being in Spain in 2009, every community had a crane for construction, non of them were working and 13% of the Spanish economy was construction. All the subsidies they were recieving from the EU were soon to be heading to the new eastern states to suppossedely bring them up to scratch.

You can easily see how good life looked and why should it change? Something very unexpected happened and the dominos started to fall with huge amounts of credit outstanding and now no way to repay.

To many people caught with their pants down springs to mind.

They will have to try and sort out Greece first and hope they dont find any worse news along the Med. The amounts this going to cost are mind blowing and it just shows how precarious the whole economic system is and to say it would be great for farang is a thoughtless statement, the whole sytem is intertwined and if it brings down China then we might as well throw the paddle away.

The world lives in hope of a period of stability and something very unexpected to revive the system.

[mccw]

The more money the half ok economies give to the rubbish ones the worse it will be for them and really could lead to a roling Europe default and meltdown. If the north Europeans want any chance of survival they should bite the bullet now and deal with it; problem is the political class are rapped up in this dream of the euro as a symbol of political union rather than seeing the economic sense. Maybe not every country in country in euro zone would totally collapse but every bail out puts the whole at a greater and great risk. Does any one else not find this whole thing crazy to watch? creating more and more debt when it's debt that's the problem in the first place. No one expects any of it the actualy be paid; just more debts taken out later to pay the previous debts of before; and as we're now seeing, when markets start to impose higher rates it all suddenly gets totally unmanageable.

Moodys are about to down grade France and they're meant to be doing the bailing out! The more debt the wealthier countries take on the more their balance sheets look bad and the more they will get charged interest and the worse it will become. Unless; like with America; and Japan; blind faith that the status quo can continue will save the day; but it's this loss of faith in the system of running on never ending debt that we are now starting to witness in Europe.

"Just one country" my arse; this has huge ramifications.

Maybe an orderly default coupled with a debt mountain will keep the system roling simply because a collective subconscious amongst markets can not accept their own inevitable destruction if that faith was lost.

[VegasVic]

As should be perfectly clear to even the most casual market observers, the $USD is the opposite side of almost every trade on earth.

Very true serenity, the USD is the mother of all carry trades at the moment just as the YEN use to be, and when the YEN carry trade unwound the YEN skyrocketed and the same will happen with the USD when the carry trade unwinds. My guess would be sometime in mid to late 2013 U.S. interst rates will begin to rise and the USD will appreciate quite rapidly, so all those big multinational U.S. corporations that are enjoying a free ride ala the weak USD had better sock away the easy money that they are making at the moment due to that weak USD As for the EURO I hope I was wrong a couple years ago when I said the EURO would not make it past 2012, perhaps if Greece can cut the jobs they need to cut and reign in the salaries of retired public sector workers and give the bondholders a 50% haircut then there is a way out of this for the EU, if not then the EURO will plummet and the future of the EU itself will be hanging on by a thread. Even if Greece is bailed out then Italy is next at the trough and that is a horse of a different color, and of course the 800 pound gorilla in the room that nobody wants to talk about is SPAIN I'll say a few Hail Marys and Our Fathers for the Thai flood victims as well as the EU tonight!

[Naam]

the $USD

the lady-woman-female...

[SantiSuk]

Saying that Greece default will cause a recession in Europe is like saying that the default of Meuang Khon Kaen would cause the collapse of the Thai economy.

[nong38]

Saying that Greece default will cause a recession in Europe is like saying that the default of Meuang Khon Kaen would cause the collapse of the Thai economy.

Well they appear to be in a lot of debt and the first bail out has failed, courtesy of Greece not wanting the pain for all the good times. The rest of the club are going to have dig deep and hope Greece feels some heat to put their house in order. A lot of what happens in the financial world is not driven by facts, its driven by emotions like optimism, pessimism and sentiments. If greece can put its house in order we will be happier and good news will abound and we will forget about the other possible problems for a while but the Greek Govt seems to have a big problem with people on the streets who dont want feel the pain, until that is sorted out this problem is not going away and financial markets will be nervous. Imagine if this had happened to France, Holland or Germany, I think you not comprehend how serious this situation is. The Euro was an accident waiting to happen.

[Naam]

Saying that Greece default will cause a recession in Europe is like saying that the default of Meuang Khon Kaen would cause the collapse of the Thai economy.

a recession, not only in Europe but globally, is in the cards. not necessarily caused by a default of Greece but triggered by the default. the situation is similar to 2008 where the bankruptcy of Lehman caused a "domino-situation" and a following recession in many countries.

[nong38]

Saying that Greece default will cause a recession in Europe is like saying that the default of Meuang Khon Kaen would cause the collapse of the Thai economy.

a recession, not only in Europe but globally, is in the cards. not necessarily caused by a default of Greece but triggered by the default. the situation is similar to 2008 where the bankruptcy of Lehman caused a "domino-situation" and a following recession in many countries.

Spot on but we dont want to talk about it too loudly in case markets start to get the jitters then its run for your money!

[farang000999]

well ECRI says there is a recession and they charge $200,000 a year I think for their newsletter.

[nong38]

well ECRI says there is a recession and they charge $200,000 a year I think for their newsletter.

Not sure who ECRI are but I would cancel the newsletter and save the money.

[Naam]

well ECRI says there is a recession and they charge $200,000 a year I think for their newsletter.

old invalid Zimbabwe Dollars?

you can download the ECRI newsletter free of charge here:

http://www.ecri.be/new/system/files/ECRI%20Newsletter%20n40_Autumn%202011.pdf

"ECRI Explains Its Recession Call"

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2011/10/05/ecri-explains-its-recession-call/

"“It's Going to Get a Lot Worse”: ECRI's Achuthan Says"

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/going-lot-worse-ecri-achuthan-says-recession-unavoidable-141929160.html

:sleepy:

Edited October 26, 2011 by Naam

[waza]

Great topic, but I ask, 'Thai Default Would Great For Farang "? Given that if the flooding of Thailands industrial base and much of its rice basket, decrease in the tourist trade plus the cost of the new government's election promises, will have a dramatic effect in GDP.

[farang000999]

well ECRI says there is a recession and they charge $200,000 a year I think for their newsletter.

old invalid Zimbabwe Dollars?

you can download the ECRI newsletter free of charge here:

http://www.ecri.be/n...tumn%202011.pdf

"ECRI Explains Its Recession Call"

http://blogs.wsj.com...recession-call/

"“It's Going to Get a Lot Worse”: ECRI's Achuthan Says"

http://finance.yahoo...-141929160.html

:sleepy:

i just checked. to get the newsletter an hour and a half early it costs 55k a year.

[farang000999]

Great topic, but I ask, 'Thai Default Would Great For Farang "? Given that if the flooding of Thailands industrial base and much of its rice basket, decrease in the tourist trade plus the cost of the new government's election promises, will have a dramatic effect in GDP.

i feel like at some point the red shirts are going to want to print and distribute some money to their voters otherwise the voters might lose interest in this whole revolution thingy

[nong38]

well ECRI says there is a recession and they charge $200,000 a year I think for their newsletter.

old invalid Zimbabwe Dollars?

you can download the ECRI newsletter free of charge here:

http://www.ecri.be/n...tumn%202011.pdf

"ECRI Explains Its Recession Call"

http://blogs.wsj.com...recession-call/

""It's Going to Get a Lot Worse": ECRI's Achuthan Says"

http://finance.yahoo...-141929160.html

:sleepy:

i just checked. to get the newsletter an hour and a half early it costs 55k a year.

What a bargain! How many mugs have signed up?