PM Yingluck Should Dump Silly Populist Policies And Work On Long-Term Solutions

[webfact]

STREET WISE

PM should dump silly populist policies and work on long-term solutions

Achara Deboonme

Achara Deboonme

Talks in the financial markets deal mainly with the future of the global economy.

Conversation now focuses on the political will of politicians in the US and Europe, in fixing their problems.

In the US, the Republicans are now being urged to lend their best supports to boost the economy as they can, rather than being the vultures waiting for the economy to go downhill for a victory in the 2012 presidential election against the Democrats.

The focus is also on German and French politicians, believed to take the biggest role in reviving the euro zone economy. They are being urged to put the regional integration before national agenda.

Whatever the developments will be, Thailand would be affected, positively or negatively. For a cushion, we need solid domestic fundamentals and that is also possible if politicians put long-term sustainability before short-term interests.

The flooding disaster, if anything, demonstrates Thailand's acute need for long-sighted leaders. The involvement of the Navy and the Ministry of Science and Technology sheds a light at what we could achieve, if our leaders see the needs for integrated action.

Like many in the tropical zone, Thailand is prone to floods and droughts. Mitigation efforts are in greater need given the climate change, which accelerates changes in the weather. For years, many provinces suffered from floods during May to October while in the rest of the years others experienced droughts. Needless to say, it shows how poor Thailand is in water management.

An official at the Royal Irrigation Department admitted that dams and reservoirs nationwide can store only 10 per cent of annual rainfalls. The rest just go downward to the Gulf of Thailand. A new investment scheme is necessary if the excess water is to be channeled to the drought-prone areas. Given the climate change, scientific data is necessary to support where the new investment should be destined to. The Agriculture Ministry's input is a must to know the types of crops and their water consumption, in each area. The Public Works and Town & Country Planning Department must help in designing which area is best for what activities. We also need input from the National Economic and Social Development Board, if such planning and investment accords with the long-term future of Thailand. Last but not least, it is politicians' commitment.

To date, Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra has stressed her wish for that. But it is half-hearted to get convinced if this would be successful.

The biggest doubt lies with her commitment. Though her Pheu Thai Party has the majority voice, the government fails to mobilize national supports given the ambiguity of several economic policies. It's not a good start to push on with the rice-pledging scheme, given past experiences of frauds and wastes.

No benefits are to be reaped from the suspension of Oil Fund levy on non-gasohol fuel products and diesel, or the first-car buyer scheme. In a year, both cost nearly Bt40 billion - enough to finance the construction of the Purple Line mass transit route. Wouldn't it be best to spend on something that is here to stay and good for the economy and environment?

Yingluck is impressive with her eagerness to involve in the flood relief campaign. Experienced Cabinet members were delegated, and she has cancelled all overseas trips. At daily press conferences from a disaster control centre, she supports all.

Yet, if she is serious in fixing the vicious cycle for good, a lot more is necessary. Convincing her party to dump wasteful spending programmes, designed for popular votes not long-term sustainability, would be the priority and the most-daunting task. She would turn a heroin, though, if she could steer for a national agenda which must contain a clear financial commitment.

If historical records can show anything, it is human's readiness to learn and improve. With the commitment, villagers may complain less next year when another seasonal flood returns, as there is light at the end of the tunnel. If not, Yingluck just proves that she could best be like her short-sighted predecessors, whose names would be forgotten (if not condemned) after departure from the political scene.

-- The Nation 2011-10-10

[yoshiwara]

One can but dream.

[Orac]

Unfortunately the political system in place in Thailand (and most of the western world for that matter) is not geared up for long term planning and instead concentrates on short term political gains to win votes.

[blackout]

yeah, talk about long term, this seem like Shinawatra's goverment long term strategy

http://www.oknation....1/10/09/entry-1

for those can read thai, you will see some thais said that this people did the same back when tsunami hit the south.

Edited October 10, 2011 by blackout

[RichardtenBrinke]

Ask the Dutch about water management. They will surely have an solution to this.

[bluebluewater]

" The involvement of the Navy and the Ministry of Science and Technology sheds a light at what we could achieve "Hardly . . someone is just continuing to try to fool someone else. If anything it ought to illuminate to the problems.

[Krungbin]

"If historical records can show anything, it is human's readiness to learn and improve."

Perhaps so.

But historical records can show as well human's readiness to forget!

[whybother]

I thought Peau Thai had already dumped most of their populist policies, but I don't think the one policy that they are working on is a long term one.

[Thai at Heart]

" The involvement of the Navy and the Ministry of Science and Technology sheds a light at what we could achieve "Hardly . . someone is just continuing to try to fool someone else. If anything it ought to illuminate to the problems.

If the navy and the science ministry actually have people who believe putting boats in the river to "push" water, you are right, it more than illuminates how far this country has to go.

[geriatrickid]

Ask the Dutch about water management. They will surely have an solution to this.

The Dutch technologyand approach may be state of the art but it is for a totally different type of water management. The Dutch risk of flooding is closely related to ocean conditions. In Thailand, flooding is the result of a complex inter relationship between mountains, rivers and forests. The Netherlands is only 41,848 sq. km. whereas Thailand is 513,520 sq. km. The tallest "mountain" in the land of mayonnaise eaters is only 322 m whereas its 2565m in the LOS. Thailand has multiple mountain ranges that all infliuence rainfall. The Dutch have only the foothills of the Ardennes. Only 2 rivers present a major annual risk of flooding in the Nederlands, but over a hundred rivers can flood in any given year in Thailand. Thailand needs a watershed management strategy and a preservation of its natural assets that protect against flooding. Flood gates, land reclamation etc. may be brillianty done by the Dutch, but it is not an appropriate application for Thailand. In plain language, one doesn't ask a brilliant neurosurgeon to treat a patient with heart disease.

[longway]

Well its not up to Yingluck is it.

[OzMick]

"If historical records can show anything, it is human's readiness to learn and improve."

Perhaps so.

But historical records can show as well human's readiness to forget!

Friedrich Hegel : The only thing we learn from history is that we learn nothing from history.

[EvilDrSomkid]

Ask the Dutch about water management. They will surely have an solution to this.

Thai people do not listen to westerners. You know that. What the world does outside Thailand does not exist to them.

They want "Thai" solutions for "Thai" problems.

If they did listen, it would require a gigantic investment and long term commitment to the largest infrastructure project this country has ever seen.

The Delta works in The Netherlands was a very expensive and long project, not to mention the Afsluitdijk.

Projects like this would cost 50% more and last twice as long here because of corruption and incompetence. They have trouble finishing roads.

The current government, like previous ones, is only interested in now and maybe tomorrow, because most cabinets do not stay much longer than 2 years.

Their first priority now is get Taksin back, second priority is filling their pockets as quickly as possible.

Yesterday, I heard that the Red Shirts say among themselves that if Taksin would be in Thailand, there would be no flooding... <deleted>

[OzMick]

Ask the Dutch about water management. They will surely have an solution to this.

The Dutch technologyand approach may be state of the art but it is for a totally different type of water management. The Dutch risk of flooding is closely related to ocean conditions. In Thailand, flooding is the result of a complex inter relationship between mountains, rivers and forests. The Netherlands is only 41,848 sq. km. whereas Thailand is 513,520 sq. km. The tallest "mountain" in the land of mayonnaise eaters is only 322 m whereas its 2565m in the LOS. Thailand has multiple mountain ranges that all infliuence rainfall. The Dutch have only the foothills of the Ardennes. Only 2 rivers present a major annual risk of flooding in the Nederlands, but over a hundred rivers can flood in any given year in Thailand. Thailand needs a watershed management strategy and a preservation of its natural assets that protect against flooding. Flood gates, land reclamation etc. may be brillianty done by the Dutch, but it is not an appropriate application for Thailand. In plain language, one doesn't ask a brilliant neurosurgeon to treat a patient with heart disease.

BKK flooding is also closely related to ocean conditions - with a full moon causing spring tides in 2 days time. The new moon spring tide 2 weeks later will be even worse if the river flows have not decreased.

[hyperdimension]

I don't think the one policy that they are working on is a long term one.

I think it is. The Shinawatra empire has worked hard for years to re-take power over the country, and I think they plan to hold onto the power long-term.

[Krungbin]

Ask the Dutch about water management. They will surely have an solution to this.

Thai people do not listen to westerners. You know that. What the world does outside Thailand does not exist to them.

They want "Thai" solutions for "Thai" problems.

If they did listen, it would require a gigantic investment and long term commitment to the largest infrastructure project this country has ever seen.

The Delta works in The Netherlands was a very expensive and long project, not to mention the Afsluitdijk.

Projects like this would cost 50% more and last twice as long here because of corruption and incompetence. They have trouble finishing roads.

The current government, like previous ones, is only interested in now and maybe tomorrow, because most cabinets do not stay much longer than 2 years.

Their first priority now is get Taksin back, second priority is filling their pockets as quickly as possible.

Yesterday, I heard that the Red Shirts say among themselves that if Taksin would be in Thailand, there would be no flooding... <deleted>

The "Delta Works" was for sure a very expensive and long term project. But it is mainly a defense system against sea floodings rather than river ones. It protects 25% of the surface of the country and its population that are located below sea level. And another 50% of the surface of the country is less than one metre above sea level...

Not quite the same problem as the one faced by Thailand.

This stated, I do agree with you that the solution would perhaps consist in a "long term" project. Such as, suggested by "an official at the Royal Irrigation Department", channeling the excess water to the drought-prone areas for instance.

But will this message be heard by the politicians in charge?

[hgma]

Richard, my man, i can't agree more

if it comes to water-management.........

IF IT AIN'T DUTCH.....IT AIN'T MUCH !!!!

HGMA

Ask the Dutch about water management. They will surely have an solution to this.

[bigbamboo]

Does Thailand need more dykes?

Edited October 10, 2011 by bigbamboo

[steveromagnino]

In Thailand, flooding is the result of a complex inter relationship between mountains, rivers and forests.

Flood gates, land reclamation etc. may be brillianty done by the Dutch, but it is not an appropriate application for Thailand. In plain language, one doesn't ask a brilliant neurosurgeon to treat a patient with heart disease.

excellent summary. Dutch below sea land reclamation without a monsoon season and with a relatively predictable non monsoon type seasonal pattern has little bearing or relevance to Thailand. The polder system is permanently on the verge of flooding if a dyke breaks...so there is considerable incentive to make it work.

Thailand's floods are periodic, in different locations and highly weather dependent but for a few weeks a year. VERY different issue to deal with.

In Thailand's case...why do floods usually seem to occur in Sept/Oct?

1. Dams and water catchments by this period in the SW monsoon/rainy season are full up of water (in many cases there is some deliberate attempt to also have them full and hold that water for rice farmers from then until the following May during the dry season)

2. Rivers/klongs are already flowing at or close to full capacity

3. There is a triple whammy of rainfall tending to occur at 3pm onwards...and Thailand has a high tide in the late afternoon/mid evening period; a full moon in the middle of Sept and again in the middle of Oct are the worst periods with jumbo tides; and also during this period of the year the gulf of Thailand water level overall is slightly higher also than during the northerly monsoon.

4. Thailand only has a single tide per day; this means that the high tides at this time of year are very high and stay high for a long period; far longer than Europe for instance; the rate of high to low is not linear at all as while there is only one tide, there is a subtide effect so you get quite low in the morning, and rising to quite high even by mid afternoon, and it stays like that for hours and hours....you will see this clearly in the Thai seashore (especially at Wongamart, where the monsoon this year has basically destroyed the beach completely and it is not mostly rocks)

5. in recent years, the tendency has been for more concentrated rainfall in shorter time periods; intensity of rain showers has increased - this is what I have been told and needs to be checked but seems anecdotally to be true

This means for instance that flash rainfall in Bangkok without the benefit of gravity to drain puts huge pressure on the capital to avoid flooding; systems are in place to force water south (which is the normal north to south flow of water from Thailand's north out to the sea) but flash floods still occur from time to time.

Flood prevention is all about average water level with the minimum amount of variance; average 1.8m with variance +/- .1m means a 2m dyke/wall is going to hold. more variance...and once it is broken it's very tricky/impossible to fix. A bit like how a swimming pool is average 1.4m deep, but you will drown if you are standing in the deep end if that's 2m deep.

For dealing with river overflow, there are gates and restrictions all the way up the waterways; in this case, there are strong rumours that certain areas such as Suphanburi locked and refused to open waterways when it seemed flooding was a pass the parcel type exercise, now that the problem is so widespread, even with the waterways open there is simply too much water to get down and away from the central plain; again not helped by the early decisions in July/August where each province/RID deals with this odd balancing act; let the water go and farmers have no water in Jan-Apr. Don't let the water go and you risk overflow. Enough bad communication relative to the weather....and you have everyone needing to let water go and nowhere for it to go.

Being that this year has had particularly bad problems, there are people upcountry who are now over 2 months of being 1-3m deep in water.

One political group are spreading rumours that it is RID and Bangkok elite forcing through the decision to let them flood while Bangkok gloats. Ironic that an associated party in government has done almost nothing to address this issue other than to stage media visits and giving out aid where in one case observed, the same group of about 30 villagers went around in a loop picking up items provided...making it seem like a lot of people were benefiting...when actually it was about 30.

This has nothing to do with Thai people listening or not listening to foreigners. It is a function of weather; lack of planning and lack of immediate response; converting far too much land in the central plain/forests to be farming/urban use land as opposed to Monkey cheeks or natural areas capable of absorbing rainfall; and so far IMHO failure to call in the armed forces to provide a structured staged assistance to the people who need it; perhaps that's counter to the argument that the military are bad (hence the village scouts and red villages up in the NE) but they are about the only group capable of fixing and solving what should be a state of emergency.

This is far beyond the scope and expertise of a protected first time MP/PM who has no real experience in managing things in crisis to solve and has people like a science/tech minister who clearly has no understanding of basic physics; it should be a state of emergency and the military should be pushed in to assist immediately far more than to date.

Just like the Euro crisis....officials are doing too little, too late.

Edited October 10, 2011 by steveromagnino

[rubl]

Ask the Dutch about water management. They will surely have an solution to this.

The Dutch technologyand approach may be state of the art but it is for a totally different type of water management. The Dutch risk of flooding is closely related to ocean conditions. In Thailand, flooding is the result of a complex inter relationship between mountains, rivers and forests. The Netherlands is only 41,848 sq. km. whereas Thailand is 513,520 sq. km. The tallest "mountain" in the land of mayonnaise eaters is only 322 m whereas its 2565m in the LOS. Thailand has multiple mountain ranges that all infliuence rainfall. The Dutch have only the foothills of the Ardennes. Only 2 rivers present a major annual risk of flooding in the Nederlands, but over a hundred rivers can flood in any given year in Thailand. Thailand needs a watershed management strategy and a preservation of its natural assets that protect against flooding. Flood gates, land reclamation etc. may be brillianty done by the Dutch, but it is not an appropriate application for Thailand. In plain language, one doesn't ask a brilliant neurosurgeon to treat a patient with heart disease.

Although most (water) threat in the Netherlands comes from the Sea, also those few rivers passing through can be a headache.

The evacuation of the 'rivierenland' is one of the best know evacuations in Dutch history. From the 31st of January 1995 and days after 250,000 people were forced to evacuate from five days to two weeks because of the serious threat caused by the high water level in Rhine, Maas and Waal. Under emergency powers the government enforced this evacuation. Had river dykes been breached some areas could have had up to FIVE meters of water.

An increase of water run off over the last decades has led to allocating dedicated run-off / spill areas along rivers in combination with a review of mandatory dyke highs along rivers and models which calculate risks and economical costs versus casualties and real costs.

As such the Dutch approach can be an example of government approach, political will to take unpopular measures, longterm thinking, and providing financing for the longterm now rather than having a yearly review and allocation. Till 2020 financing is allocated, till 2028 mostly so.

Furthermore in Thailand the Chao Phaya delta has similar problems as the Dutch river delta, Bangladesh, US Missisipi delta, etc., etc.

So no monsoon in the Netherlands, true, but barely manageble run-off in certain periods, high-tides, sinking delta, etc., etc.

Surely Thai can't benefit from any of the knowledge gathered by the Dutch. Those cloggies are farang as well, go figure.

From your local Dutch uncle

[rubl]

UPDATE:

In an email warning about the flood situation in Thailand the Netherlands Embassy also mentioned

"The Embassy has offered Dutch knowledge and expertise regarding flooding. Together with Dutch knowledge institute DELTARES two projects have been offered: (1) for three weeks a Dutch engineer on site at the Thai government emergency centre, (2) a study for middle and long term approach of the flooding prevention. The Dutch expert has many years of experience in o.a. Bangladesh, Brasil, Colombia, Hongkong, Singapore and Thailand. The expert has already started and will advise the Thai governmentregarding direct measurements to control waterflows and how to limit and control damage.

The second project is a study for a MasterPlan aimed at an integrated approach to water problematics (waterstorms, reservoirs, irrigation). The institutes concerned are negotiation about a MoU with the Thai government.

(my translation, blame me for any errors )

Edited October 11, 2011 by rubl