Thai Floods To Last Four To Six Weeks More: Govt

[maidu]

The rainfall table via Thai Meteorological Department must be bogus or their 'average' rainfall numbers must be too low.

Here's what I garnered (from them) for Northern Thailand - for this year (all %'s are 'above normal' rainfall):

| March 334% | April 76% | May 41% | June 43% | July 43% | August 22% | Sept 46% |

I mention northern Thailand, because that's where I reside. I've been here 13 years and at least two of those years water levels on the local major river (Mae Kok) have been much higher than this year (two to four meters higher). This year could not have been much more than 'normal' or 'average' amount of rainfall. It's hard for me to believe the numbers published by Thai Meteorological Department are even remotely accurate. If they're so off-base for northern Thailand, they could be similarly off-base for the rest of Thailand.

I was talking with an older Thai person today, he said that the flooding is partly a result of building the new airport (suvernabhum) on an area that was meant for excess water storage. Is he right, or is he talking about this with a anti-Thaksin flavour as Taksin was the one who had built it?

Your older friend is right, but it's just a small part of the problem. Multiply the 'footprint' area of the new airport (covered by cement) by about 25,000, and you get an idea of the area of fields, swamps and forests covered up by cement each year in Thailand. I propose a Bt.100 one-time tax for all new construction - that's Bt.100 for each sq.M covered over. A typical house might be 120 Sq.M and it's perimeter slab, plus carport and driveway, etc might be another 80 sq.M. So for that dwelling (200 Sq.M 'footprint'), the tax would be Bt.20,000. The tax money could be used to tear down some of the tens of thousands of fallow buildings and cement slabs all over Thailand which are covering soil which would ordinarily soak up excess rain water.

[Crushdepth]

Posted 2011-10-22 10:55:42

Thai PM warns deadly floods to last weeks more

...

"Bangkok must open all floodgates to allow the water through," said Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra, who has invoked a disaster law to take full control of the emergency response.

"So during this long weekend residents should move belongings, cars and other valuable things to places at least one metre (three feet) high," she said in her televised weekly address to the nation.

The other newspaper has a newsflash at 21:34 23/10 with the FROC spokesperson PolGen Phonsathat insisting that FROC never issued a warning for BKK to move things up a meter or so after the Govt. ordered BKK watergates to be opened.

Who to believe, what to believe, choices, choices, headache, headache. Time for a beer, methinks.

It was on the FROC Facebook page, posted by FROC. They later took it down and said it had been an error.

[Buchholz]

Pic of 1 of 2 escaped crocodiles shot dead by residents near Bang Bua Thong Market in Nontaburi today.

http://www.thairath.co.th/content/region/211410

Thousands of crocs roam Bangkok flood waters

Thai authorities are warning that thousands of crocodiles are roaming flood waters on the outskirts of Bangkok, where residents have been told to prepare for four to six weeks of flooding. Many of the freshwater crocodiles are escapees from wildlife parks who were freed when their enclosures were inundated and overflowed.

The government is offering a bounty for their capture but a number of other parks have warned that they will be unable to restrain the animals if floods move in. Thai television has shown pictures of captured crocodiles. Handlers claim they are usually afraid of humans. The number on the loose has become front page news in Bangkok, where billions of litres of floodwaters are moving in from the country's north.

Read more:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-10-24/crocs-loose-in-bangkok-floodwaters/3596404

ABC News - Oct. 24, 2011

[CaptHaddock]

It is well to remember that this flood is a fifty-year weather event in Thailand. Few countries can afford to build sufficiently against fifty year events.

Where is the rainfall data to back up the 'fifty year' weather event you mention? If you have scientific rainfall data, please share, thanks. I looked, and the best I could find was rainfall numbers for Thailand from 2008, 2009, 2010, and nothing for this year. Each of those previous 3 years had 'greater than average' rainfall numbers ranging from 2 to 11%.

My guess is that, dramatics aside, the rainfall for this year is not exceptionally high. I'm open to be proven wrong. Show me the data.

Good question. I was repeating newspaper references, but I can't find historical rainfall data for Thailand online, although I will keep looking. I do find this report from the Thai Meteorological Dept:

The weather during September was a combination between the rather active monsoon trough which lay across upper Thailand almost the whole month and the moderate to rather active southwest monsoon prevailed over the Andaman Sea, Thailand and the Gulf of Thailand. This was followed by the remnants of tropical storm “HAITANG” and Typhoon “NESAT” during late September, resulting in abundant rainfall led to widely major flooding across upper Thailand mainly in lower northern and central parts almost the whole month. These conditions brought above normal rainfall in northern part 97.5 mm (46%), northeastern part 110.3 mm (46%), eastern part 132.7 mm (40%) and southern part (west coast) 6.7 mm (2%).

http://www.tmd.go.th/en/climate.php?FileID=3

So, rainfall in those three regions was 40% to 46% above normal for Sept. Can't say where that puts us on the 50 year curve.

[rogerdee123]

The rainfall table via Thai Meteorological Department must be bogus or their 'average' rainfall numbers must be too low.

Here's what I garnered (from them) for Northern Thailand - for this year (all %'s are 'above normal' rainfall):

| March 334% | April 76% | May 41% | June 43% | July 43% | August 22% | Sept 46% |

I mention northern Thailand, because that's where I reside. I've been here 13 years and at least two of those years water levels on the local major river (Mae Kok) have been much higher than this year (two to four meters higher). This year could not have been much more than 'normal' or 'average' amount of rainfall. It's hard for me to believe the numbers published by Thai Meteorological Department are even remotely accurate. If they're so off-base for northern Thailand, they could be similarly off-base for the rest of Thailand.

I was talking with an older Thai person today, he said that the flooding is partly a result of building the new airport (suvernabhum) on an area that was meant for excess water storage. Is he right, or is he talking about this with a anti-Thaksin flavour as Taksin was the one who had built it?

Your older friend is right, but it's just a small part of the problem. Multiply the 'footprint' area of the new airport (covered by cement) by about 25,000, and you get an idea of the area of fields, swamps and forests covered up by cement each year in Thailand. I propose a Bt.100 one-time tax for all new construction - that's Bt.100 for each sq.M covered over. A typical house might be 120 Sq.M and it's perimeter slab, plus carport and driveway, etc might be another 80 sq.M. So for that dwelling (200 Sq.M 'footprint'), the tax would be Bt.20,000. The tax money could be used to tear down some of the tens of thousands of fallow buildings and cement slabs all over Thailand which are covering soil which would ordinarily soak up excess rain water.

We can also do the same footprint exercise and see how much impact a flooded Bangkok will have.

[scotbeve]

I was talking with an older Thai person today, he said that the flooding is partly a result of building the new airport (suvernabhum) on an area that was meant for excess water storage. Is he right, or is he talking about this with a anti-Thaksin flavour as Taksin was the one who had built it?

Thaksin did not build it.... it was under way when he got ELECTED into office.

[scotbeve]

The rainfall table via Thai Meteorological Department must be bogus or their 'average' rainfall numbers must be too low.

Here's what I garnered (from them) for Northern Thailand - for this year (all %'s are 'above normal' rainfall):

| March 334% | April 76% | May 41% | June 43% | July 43% | August 22% | Sept 46% |

I mention northern Thailand, because that's where I reside. I've been here 13 years and at least two of those years water levels on the local major river (Mae Kok) have been much higher than this year (two to four meters higher). This year could not have been much more than 'normal' or 'average' amount of rainfall. It's hard for me to believe the numbers published by Thai Meteorological Department are even remotely accurate. If they're so off-base for northern Thailand, they could be similarly off-base for the rest of Thailand.

I was talking with an older Thai person today, he said that the flooding is partly a result of building the new airport (suvernabhum) on an area that was meant for excess water storage. Is he right, or is he talking about this with a anti-Thaksin flavour as Taksin was the one who had built it?

Your older friend is right, but it's just a small part of the problem. Multiply the 'footprint' area of the new airport (covered by cement) by about 25,000, and you get an idea of the area of fields, swamps and forests covered up by cement each year in Thailand. I propose a Bt.100 one-time tax for all new construction - that's Bt.100 for each sq.M covered over. A typical house might be 120 Sq.M and it's perimeter slab, plus carport and driveway, etc might be another 80 sq.M. So for that dwelling (200 Sq.M 'footprint'), the tax would be Bt.20,000. The tax money could be used to tear down some of the tens of thousands of fallow buildings and cement slabs all over Thailand which are covering soil which would ordinarily soak up excess rain water.

Plus, perhaps, funding to dig / construct some more khlongs for transportation on an industrial scale and also for excessive river level drainage

[whybother]

I was talking with an older Thai person today, he said that the flooding is partly a result of building the new airport (suvernabhum) on an area that was meant for excess water storage. Is he right, or is he talking about this with a anti-Thaksin flavour as Taksin was the one who had built it?

Thaksin did not build it.... it was under way when he got ELECTED into office.

It wasn't underway when he was elected. He is widely credited for getting it started. But he had no real say in where it was going to be located.

The land was bought in 1973. The construction started in 2002.

[satiariyan]

The rainfall table via Thai Meteorological Department must be bogus or their 'average' rainfall numbers must be too low.

Here's what I garnered (from them) for Northern Thailand - for this year (all %'s are 'above normal' rainfall):

| March 334% | April 76% | May 41% | June 43% | July 43% | August 22% | Sept 46% |

I mention northern Thailand, because that's where I reside. I've been here 13 years and at least two of those years water levels on the local major river (Mae Kok) have been much higher than this year (two to four meters higher). This year could not have been much more than 'normal' or 'average' amount of rainfall. It's hard for me to believe the numbers published by Thai Meteorological Department are even remotely accurate. If they're so off-base for northern Thailand, they could be similarly off-base for the rest of Thailand.

Well, while Mae Kok may be an indicator of rainfall in Chiang Rai, rainfall in Chiang Rai doesn't tell much about the rest of Northern Thailand which is the official term for all provinces from Chiamg Rai in North to Phrae and Tak in South (if not even more ssouthern provinces are included). In any case, the high percentages in March and April wouldn't have much effect on any riverlevels anyway. It hardly ever rains in March in northern thailand - so 334% above monthly average would be a few mmm of which 99.9% immediately gets sucked up of the bonedry soil upon impact because there would have been almost no rain the preceeding 3-4 months. Besides, Mae Kok runs west-east (and certain places even towards north) and drains a very small area (or rather extremely small area ompared to an area the size of the whole region Northern Thailand. Frankly, I think you're a bit paranoid thinking the Meteorologic Department deliberately makes bogus rainfall data - there may me flaws and miscalculations - but why on earth should they lie on how much water falls? --- (The data were there long before anyone had any reason to expect the current situation - in case someone should start up on suggesting that Yingluck made the numbers).

[scotbeve]

I was talking with an older Thai person today, he said that the flooding is partly a result of building the new airport (suvernabhum) on an area that was meant for excess water storage. Is he right, or is he talking about this with a anti-Thaksin flavour as Taksin was the one who had built it?

Thaksin did not build it.... it was under way when he got ELECTED into office.

It wasn't underway when he was elected. He is widely credited for getting it started. But he had no real say in where it was going to be located.

The land was bought in 1973. The construction started in 2002.

Yes, correct. But didn't the land filling start before 2002?

[whybother]

It wasn't underway when he was elected. He is widely credited for getting it started. But he had no real say in where it was going to be located.

The land was bought in 1973. The construction started in 2002.

Yes, correct. But didn't the land filling start before 2002?

Land reclamation from 1997 to 2001.

[philw]

I was talking with an older Thai person today, he said that the flooding is partly a result of building the new airport (suvernabhum) on an area that was meant for excess water storage. Is he right, or is he talking about this with a anti-Thaksin flavour as Taksin was the one who had built it?

Thaksin did not build it.... it was under way when he got ELECTED into office.

It wasn't underway when he was elected. He is widely credited for getting it started. But he had no real say in where it was going to be located.

The land was bought in 1973. The construction started in 2002.

Not quite correct.

I was living there in 1994 when construction on access roads and massive land filling was taking place.

[whybother]

Not quite correct.

I was living there in 1994 when construction on access roads and massive land filling was taking place.

According to this http://www.suvarnabh..._history_en.php

27th May 1997 The cabinet has approved to proceed with the construction of the Suvarnabhumi Airport

edit: they probably start general land fill well before that. although wiki talks about it being from 1997-2001.

Edited October 24, 2011 by whybother

[animatic]

It wasn't underway when he was elected. He is widely credited for getting it started. But he had no real say in where it was going to be located.

The land was bought in 1973. The construction started in 2002.

Yes, correct. But didn't the land filling start before 2002?

Land reclamation from 1997 to 2001.

Land purchases by influential persons 1994-1996

[xminator]

The only way for the flood to last less long is for more water to get into the ocean.

They only way for the water to get faster into the ocean is to dig deeper - or accept wider spread flooding.

The only way to dig deeper is to lower the ocean surface or more accurately controll the tides.

They only way to lower the ocean surface is to build a 105km long dike from Satahip to Hua Hin (or more accurately from Ko Samae islands to province south of Hua Hin.)

Then its the small matter of pump capacity, ship traffic management (there will after all be a 1-3 meter height difference...) and the gigantic amount of non fluid runoff from the rivers.

A massive project, one that most likely wont pay itself unless the prediction about rising sea levels proves correct. Then this could prove the only way to keep Bangkok dry even in the dry season...

[animatic]

The only way for the flood to last less long is for more water to get into the ocean.

They only way for the water to get faster into the ocean is to dig deeper - or accept wider spread flooding.

The only way to dig deeper is to lower the ocean surface or more accurately controll the tides.

They only way to lower the ocean surface is to build a 105km long dike from Satahip to Hua Hin (or more accurately from Ko Samae islands to province south of Hua Hin.)

Then its the small matter of pump capacity, ship traffic management (there will after all be a 1-3 meter height difference...) and the gigantic amount of non fluid runoff from the rivers.

A massive project, one that most likely wont pay itself unless the prediction about rising sea levels proves correct. Then this could prove the only way to keep Bangkok dry even in the dry season...

Or build up Bangkok to pre-subsidence levels.

[Buchholz]

I'm sitting here in the UK so in many ways feel what I'm asking may sound insenstitive but I am genuinely curious about the situation regarding the MRT - has there been any safeguards put in place with regards to the potential flooding, especially if some are citing that such an event will happen rapidly?

Apologies if any offence caused by this question.

Good question and we are all wondering about that .... although the Govt probably says it's safe .... all the rest of us probably expect it to be flooded.

70 MRT entrances and exits closed to prevent flooding

BANGKOK, 24 October 2011 (NNT)- The Mass Rapid Transit Authority of Thailand (MRTA) has closed its 40 flood-risk entrances and exits, out of the total of 140. The services, however, remain available as usual.

In preparation for the floodwater which might flow into the MRT stations, Deputy Director of MRTA Mr Ronnachit Yaensaard said that his officials have closed approximately 70 flood-risk entrances and exits from the total of 140 points that might allow water to flow or leak into the MRT tunnels.

Insisting on the need to do this beforehand, he pointed out that if the flood comes or the water rapidly increases at night, protection of the MRT stations might not be thorough. However, MRTA continues to offer its service as usual but it also keeps watch on the flood-prone points, most of which are on main roads such as Ratchadabhisek, Phahonyothin, Sukhumvit and Asoke.

In its precautionary measures, if the water level increases up to 50 cm from the sidewalks in front of each underground station, based on the water level recorded in 2006 flooding crisis, the necessity to close all of the entrances and exits will be immediately put into consideration bythe MRTA.

As for now the MRT service is still available as it is estimated that all 18 MTR might not be flooded. However, the MRTA might have to stop its transporting service if the situation reached the critical point. In that case, the MRTA will announce to the public again.

-- NNT 2011-10-24

[maidu]

There is a political advantage for the current gov't to say current floods are caused by '25% greater than average rainfall'

By giving the impression it's a whole lot more rainfall, it gives an (at least a partial) excuse for failing flood control and administration failures.

Thai Meteorological Department (TMD) must have an unrealistically low number for 'average rainfall' - if they say that this year's tally is 25% higher than average. Looking at their site, the previous 3 years were also higher than average, between 2 and 11%. Before 2008, there appears to be no annual tallies (if you find tallies going back farther, let me know).

17 months ago, the newspaper headlines were "Most Severe Drought in 20 years!" (maybe that was true also, but where are the annual tallies to back it up?) And around the same time, a Thai weather specialist was claiming that rising seas worldwide (from global warming) would not affect water levels in the Gulf of Thailand. The same climatologists who had no idea, prior to 2004, that there could be a tsunami in the Andaman Sea. I would bet they're the same sorts who will tell the public that a tsunami could never happen in the Gulf of Thailand.

Where do those climatologists get their education - ....from the fortune teller in Chiang Mai who the Shinawatre clan go every week?

Edited October 25, 2011 by maidu

[Rinrada]

As for now the MRT service is still available as it is estimated that all 18 MTR might not be flooded. However, the MRTA might have to stop its transporting service if the situation reached the critical point. In that case, the MRTA will announce to the public again....At least a bit of good News.

Think I would start to be concerned however if/when the flood levels got to the Sky Train level....Ouch

[monkfish]

There are some new high res images of the flooding here

http://www.gistda.or.th/gistda_n/

This one is reduced in size