I Ordered A Delay In The Release Of Water From Dam: Agriculture Minister Theera

[metisdead]

A baiting post has been removed.

Posts have been deleted for failure to use quote function leading to misunderstanding of who posted what.

[drdoom6996]

The newest and latest fall guy for the PTT

[SICHONSTEVE]

Punishing him satisfies the desired for revenge for many. I reserve my comment for such reaction. You are entitled yours. Do you think the same problem will not happen in future just because he admitted his mistake and he tendered his resignation? What make we think the other minister to take his position can make the all the right decisions without miss over the next 50 years. This minister, probably the previous one too, had done two gross mistakes related to dams operations in less than 10 years that I can find. You may put better minister that makes one mistake over the next 15 years. But then that one mistake that counts. As what it happened now.

Let me point out the fundamental problem. EGAT in charge for power generation. It likes the dams water level going as higher as possible for higher yields. Agriculture Minister, in charge for agriculture activities. He also wants the dams level to be as high as possible for higher yields. Unfortunately, for a sake of flood control, the dams water levels have to be brought a lot down, No associated yield for doing so. Loss of opportunity due to lower yields in power generation and agriculture and the need to "waste" the water just like that could be TBH billions per annum. My point is that, who is in charge to champion for the so call flood control requirement? Which minister wants to champion this (unpopular) task? As far as I can see it from the recent floods event, it appeared to be nobody.

If nobody is assigned to do the right job you will not get the right result for the right job. This is what happened as I see, over at least the last few months. Thailand is not the only country that has this kind of problem. And it won't be the last.

I certainly wouldn't put YOU in this position, as I would imagine that the first question you would ask is "where is the plug situated and how many people does it take to pull it out"??? or maybe "how many standard sized kettles would all this water fill - assumes that each kettle is filled to the maximum level line (taking the lower meniscus as the point of reference)???

I think you owe it to me to explain what these "put together words mean" as I could read it a hundred times and not be none the wiser!!!.

Reading it once is enough though as if I read it again then maybe I will spend the rest of my life wondering what it all means - it could be my "quest for life" and I have more important things to consider than this as I only have one life (assumes there is no after-life)!!!!

I don't think there has ever been a more knowledgable poster here on the subject of flood containment than the fellow you are responding to. I think you may owe him an apology. Just sayin'.

Really!!!!!! Then please tell me how you come to this conclusion - judging by this meaningless DRIVEL I wouldn't employ you as my recruitment officer, thats a fact!!!

It is that bad and nonsensical that even if it did make sense it wouldn't make sense!!!.

I think he owes ME an apology for assaulting my brain with his flawed wisdom, thank you very much!!!.

I've had second thoughts on my original posting - maybe he does fit the bill and should apply for the job if he's such an expert as you imply!!

Just replying.

[ratcatcher]

They were releasing a lot less water than they were taking in since August, that's when the floods started in the North. By September dams were almost full, at over 80% capacity, Disasters dept issued its highest level flood alert and that's when Theera gave this order, it was reported in Thai press, so they were still releasing less than taking in and then the hell broke loose.

I think the mismanagement here was in not spreading the floods evenly over two-three months but releasing it in one go that created this slow moving tsunami.

The conspiracy theory about Thaksin protecting Arab investors who bought land in Suphanburi is too good to pass. When water was about to be diverted to Suphan Banharn easily prevailed over Phua Thai MPs and they backed off and flooded Ayutthaya instead. Banharn has kept an extremely low profile since then, so did Theera, and, more importantly, so did Thaksin.

It's a mighty big ace the elites are holding against them - selling rice land to foreigners and flooding half the country to protect them. They are holding Thaksin, Banharn and Yingluck government practically by the balls and if Thaksin doesn't play nice someone will certainly use this conspiracy to incite the next massive uprising.

It is developing in slow motion, Theera's order alone took two months to go public and since Banharn insisted that there will be no punishment for his minster it's just the beginning.

New round of civil unrest is in nobody's interest but PT can't use this reason to goad the Democrats in accepting responsibility for floods, someone is going to snap and bring this new allegation against Thaksin into the public arena, and I don't mean Manager website no one takes seriously.

They are already asking YL to quit, this smells trouble.

Not just the Arab investments,

but the Rice-Mafia up country for the rice pledging spoils.

If there were foreigners running farms saved at the expense of trashing the average Thais running farms, then this is a scandal of Promethian proportions, that can NOT be spun into submission.

Will this be the straw that breaks the back of the Thaksin Political Machine and lay 'the legend' bare and baldfaced?

That largely depends on just how the opposition handles the information that is available. This will take time to unravel since there is so much at stake. No doubt Banharn will be feeling somewhat anxious with his involvement in the "Don't flood SuphanBanharnburi" order". This may well be PTP's "Achilles Heel"

The lights will be burning late into the night while the opposition organizes a game plan.

[SICHONSTEVE]

So it is all proven now.

Mr. Theera greedy in wanted the 3rd harvest have caused 500+ life, and billion in damage.

Put him on trial, let him be responsible. I think he will to to jail for life, if not excuted immediately.

No offence meant, but may I infer that you are a recent arrival to the LOS ?

Time here means nothing cos an old Aussy member who has lived here for 21 years has been trying to convince me for last hour that Abhisit and the Dems are responsible for this tragedy maybe he would like to carry on the debate here in TV :lol:

Mr Theera has already confessed that he is greedy.

Mr Theera has already confessed that he is at fault.

Let the witch trial begins. I say burn him.

Pointless trying to!!! He would simply jump in the water!!!!.

[Markaew]

Stop the press'....A Thai official actually being accountable and admitting it was his desicion......a few more like him and there is hope for Thailand....very impressed..

Good point. I've never seen that before.

[ResX]

Here courtesy of B Pundit:

Amount of water stored in the Bhumipol Dam per year for 2005-2011

Correction

Amount of water stored in the Bhumipol Dam per year for 2005-201

Yes, OK, but how many kettles???????.

Ok let me use a 1 m X 1m X 1m container to fill up Bumibol dam. Then I have to fill up close to 14 billion times. It is going to achieved the what so called its "Full Supply Level (FSL)". Not all of this storage can be regulated. About 4 billion times will become the what so called the death storage. The average annual rainfall for this dam is about 6.6billion times.

[Markaew]

at last they found the scapegote for cooling down the pressure on PM. good move.

Along with the new committees to "find solutions to the flooding problem".

[Thaddeus]

So it is all proven now.

Mr. Theera greedy in wanted the 3rd harvest have caused 500+ life, and billion in damage.

Put him on trial, let him be responsible. I think he will to to jail for life, if not excuted immediately.

No offence meant, but may I infer that you are a recent arrival to the LOS ?

Time here means nothing cos an old Aussy member who has lived here for 21 years has been trying to convince me for last hour that Abhisit and the Dems are responsible for this tragedy maybe he would like to carry on the debate here in TV :lol:

Only the last hour Col? ...... you're getting off lightly.

[volk666]

They should make the release based on documented SOP. The dams (Bhumibol & Sirkit) have three major purposes. power generations, flood controls and irrigation. The available storage are limited. But every stake holder has it share. A fair allocation of shares shall be made by putting national interest as the main agenda. Any stake holder cannot hijack the shares allocated for others just like that.

Maybe, but Egat has about a hundred dams in the area and preventing floods/supplying irrigation water is probably an art form for them where they need to cooperate with RID very closely and without some mysterious "national interest", which in this situation was represented by the minister.

Maybe they should adjust their legal structure to reflect the shares of the stakeholders but so far they relied on good old mutual cooperation and understanding. This year it didn't work and how much role the "national interest" played in this disaster is a matter of debate. I doubt that Thais will ever devise a legal frame that would prevent this sort of things happening, it's theoretically possible but I have my doubts.

Speaking of national interest - northern parts were flooded since August, YL and other senior officials were busy dealing with them, in September they formed FROC's predecessor with overarching powers to manage the situation but it was getting only worse and government wasn't providing any relief to the affected areas. The decision to hold off water release was surely made with this "national interest" in mind, ignoring the looming disaster and hoping for the best, actual demands from agencies on the ground were probably sacrificed for the bigger picture.

I'm not an expert by any stretch, I just have Internet access, but to me releasing as much water as coming into the dams means people below get double the deluge - rains that are falling roughly equally on everybody plus the same amount of water coming from the dams. It looks like a very difficult situation for Egat and RID to manage and when "national interest" overwrites their decisions it's a recipe for disaster.

[SICHONSTEVE]

[Ok let me use a 1 m X 1m X 1m container to fill up Bumibol dam. Then I have to fill up close to 14 billion times. It is going to achieved the what so called its "Full Supply Level (FSL)". Not all of this storage can be regulated. About 4 billion times will become the what so called the death storage. The average annual rainfall for this dam is about 6.6billion times.

"The average annual rainfall for this dam is about 6.6billion times".

Crikey!!!! Thats an awful ot of times!!!. No wonder the floods are as bad as they are!!!.

Spoken like a "true expert" - I am filled with wonderment at your knowledge on the subject - you simply blow me away with your expertise on the matter!!!!!

Edited November 11, 2011 by SICHONSTEVE

[ResX]

Punishing him satisfies the desired for revenge for many. I reserve my comment for such reaction. You are entitled yours. Do you think the same problem will not happen in future just because he admitted his mistake and he tendered his resignation? What make we think the other minister to take his position can make the all the right decisions without miss over the next 50 years. This minister, probably the previous one too, had done two gross mistakes related to dams operations in less than 10 years that I can find. You may put better minister that makes one mistake over the next 15 years. But then that one mistake that counts. As what it happened now.

Let me point out the fundamental problem. EGAT in charge for power generation. It likes the dams water level going as higher as possible for higher yields. Agriculture Minister, in charge for agriculture activities. He also wants the dams level to be as high as possible for higher yields. Unfortunately, for a sake of flood control, the dams water levels have to be brought a lot down, No associated yield for doing so. Loss of opportunity due to lower yields in power generation and agriculture and the need to "waste" the water just like that could be TBH billions per annum. My point is that, who is in charge to champion for the so call flood control requirement? Which minister wants to champion this (unpopular) task? As far as I can see it from the recent floods event, it appeared to be nobody.

If nobody is assigned to do the right job you will not get the right result for the right job. This is what happened as I see, over at least the last few months. Thailand is not the only country that has this kind of problem. And it won't be the last.

I certainly wouldn't put YOU in this position, as I would imagine that the first question you would ask is "where is the plug situated and how many people does it take to pull it out"??? or maybe "how many standard sized kettles would all this water fill - assumes that each kettle is filled to the maximum level line (taking the lower meniscus as the point of reference)???

I think you owe it to me to explain what these "put together words mean" as I could read it a hundred times and not be none the wiser!!!.

Reading it once is enough though as if I read it again then maybe I will spend the rest of my life wondering what it all means - it could be my "quest for life" and I have more important things to consider than this as I only have one life (assumes there is no after-life)!!!!

I don't think there has ever been a more knowledgable poster here on the subject of flood containment than the fellow you are responding to. I think you may owe him an apology. Just sayin'.

Really!!!!!! Then please tell me how you come to this conclusion - judging by this meaningless DRIVEL I wouldn't employ you as my recruitment officer, thats a fact!!!

It is that bad and nonsensical that even if it did make sense it wouldn't make sense!!!.

I think he owes ME an apology for assaulting my brain with his flawed wisdom, thank you very much!!!.

I've had second thoughts on my original posting - maybe he does fit the bill and should apply for the job if he's such an expert as you imply!!

Just replying.

Please let me know :(1) Which part that you think I proposed a flaw wisdom? (2) Which part of my assertion that can be nullified by the observed sequence of events? The truth is hard to prove. But the flaw is opposite.

[Colin Yai]

So it is all proven now.

Mr. Theera greedy in wanted the 3rd harvest have caused 500+ life, and billion in damage.

Put him on trial, let him be responsible. I think he will to to jail for life, if not excuted immediately.

No offence meant, but may I infer that you are a recent arrival to the LOS ?

Time here means nothing cos an old Aussy member who has lived here for 21 years has been trying to convince me for last hour that Abhisit and the Dems are responsible for this tragedy maybe he would like to carry on the debate here in TV :lol:

Only the last hour Col? ...... you're getting off lightly.

Yeah Thad Mr "Know all" said Abhi is responsible even though he's seen the "ministers confession" after 5 emails I got some what bored reading all his <deleted> so challenged him to carry on the argument on TV,so far no cigar :lol: Edited November 11, 2011 by Colin Yai

[SICHONSTEVE]

Yeah Thad Mr "Know all" said Abhi is responsible even though he's seen the "ministers confession" after 5 emails I got some what bored read all his <deleted> so challenged him to carry on the argument on TV,so far no cigar :lol:

I suppose Abhisit is responsible for the Greek and Italian problems as well - not to mention all the world problems and problems of the Universe!!!!:jap:.

Edited November 11, 2011 by sbk
fixed quotes, please don't post iquotes if you are going to mess it up

[sawadeeken]

Last 3 lines of the main article:

He blamed the government for responding far too slowly to the huge volumes of water that were flowing into three dams to the north of Bangkok since August.

Though the Cabinet discussed long-term flood prevention plans in early September, at a time when the North and Central regions were flooded, the ministers did little to consider solving the issue at hand.

"On October 7, the government promised that Bangkok would not be inundated," Satit said.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I am sure that the reference is to this Govt. which loves the 'poor people' and are now drowning them. In my opinion, they only loved them because they could BUY so many of them so cheaply and win the last election(s) by a landslide, and those 'poor folks' still don't have a clue as to how they are being 'used and abused'.................

[ResX]

They should make the release based on documented SOP. The dams (Bhumibol & Sirkit) have three major purposes. power generations, flood controls and irrigation. The available storage are limited. But every stake holder has it share. A fair allocation of shares shall be made by putting national interest as the main agenda. Any stake holder cannot hijack the shares allocated for others just like that.

.

I'm not an expert by any stretch, I just have Internet access, but to me releasing as much water as coming into the dams means people below get double the deluge - rains that are falling roughly equally on everybody plus the same amount of water coming from the dams. It looks like a very difficult situation for Egat and RID to manage and when "national interest" overwrites their decisions it's a recipe for disaster.

I know you get the point. You are right here. Holding back the water in one of those months, in August, I think, is understandable. I wouldn't say is correct. But I'm not well informed to say that was wrong. As I said most of the time operating of a big dam is not a guessing game. If you have done the right decision at one particular time for one particular event, you should able to stand behind it after.

I know you can see this requirement is difficult to meet. This is my point. That indicates something is missing.

[SICHONSTEVE]

Please let me know :(1) Which part that you think I proposed a flaw wisdom? (2) Which part of my assertion that can be nullified by the observed sequence of events? The truth is hard to prove. But the flaw is opposite.

The whole of (1), the whole of (2) and I simply don't understand the meaning of the last bit!!!.

This is my erstwhile reply to ResX's pearls of wisdom - just in case you are confused!! I'm flummoxed by the way!!!

Edited November 11, 2011 by SICHONSTEVE

[whybother]

But this all happened on the Democrats watch. The waters began being released the beginning of August. Between april and july hardly any water was released and the dams were at double the capacity they were the previous year. I assume this guy is from Chart thai party as they were in the coalition with the democrats and got awarded the agriculture ministry. They are now coalition partners of Pheu Thai and have hung on to the same brief.

The article is very misleading. Wild accusations and scare mongering. In short posted to confuse.

I'll use "volk" to respond. He seems to know a bit more about what's going on that either of us.

<snip>

Water levels in dams is physically controlled by Egat, they release it in only consultation with Irrigation Dept, they can't just do without RID approval. Irrigation Dept is under Agriculture Ministry and that's where Theera comes in - he personally took charge and promised to accept full responsibility, according to some accounts.

By July dams had more water than last year but it was still only half capacity and I seriously doubt Democrats were monitoring the situation, it was business as usual in departments out of their control, but yeah, keep blaming Democrats and Arab conspiracy will come to light, won't matter if it's true or not, the fallout will be massive.

In this situation no one can afford to be a scapegoat so they better not push people. Theera is the best fall guy, he's in on the real reason and he can be easily controlled, not so with Democrats or BKK governor.

[sfbandung]

"The government should review its populist policies such as tax breaks for first car and home-buyers. People are now buying their first boats," Wittaya said.

Well said. I like this guy.

You just beat me. He's a bloody comedian.

[anterian]

Doesn't the Nation have any journalists that can write a coherent article? It seems like the two journalists in this case wrote every second paragraph with out knowing what the previous paragraph said.

The key questions that weren't asked (or weren't reported): When did he order it? Did he make the decision on his own? I assume he was the one that said "I will take responsibility".

As far as the the meteorological department only being able to forecast a week in advance, even I had a pretty good idea 2 weeks before hand that the tropical storms were going to cause a lot of rain in the North and North East. There are websites that track and predict tropical storms and it was quite clear that these ones could affect Thailand as soon as they started forming near the Philippines. Even with a weeks notice they could have started releasing some water before the storms actually hit Thailand.

Most unusual, I find myself in agreement with you

[Thaddeus]

Time here means nothing cos an old Aussy member who has lived here for 21 years has been trying to convince me for last hour that Abhisit and the Dems are responsible for this tragedy maybe he would like to carry on the debate here in TV :lol:

Only the last hour Col? ...... you're getting off lightly.

Yeah Thad Mr "Know all" said Abhi is responsible even though he's seen the "ministers confession" after 5 emails I got some what bored reading all his &lt;deleted&gt; so challenged him to carry on the argument on TV,so far no cigar :lol:

The old saying "can't see the wood for the trees" becomes even more poignant after all the trees have been cut down.

[ResX]

Please let me know :(1) Which part that you think I proposed a flaw wisdom? (2) Which part of my assertion that can be nullified by the observed sequence of events? The truth is hard to prove. But the flaw is opposite.

The whole of (1), the whole of (2) and I simply don't understand the meaning of the last bit!!!.

This is my erstwhile reply to ResX's pearls of wisdom - just in case you are confused!! I'm flummoxed by the way!!!

Understood. I think I can't help much.

[metisdead]

A nonsensical post has been removed.

[jackdawson]

This is the best discussion thread on TV in a LONG time.

Edited November 11, 2011 by jackdawson

[animatic]

The desperation of the spinners on this one is palpable like rancid butter.

1 ) The man admitted he gave the orders.

Mea culpa crash and burn... Own Goal on the world stage.

2 ) But clearly he was trying to please someone in the new government who discreetly made their 'wishes' known to him; 'save the rice crop right now' being a main candidate.

Whom was he trying to please? Just the implication without a 'direct order' quoted, is very solid tar and feather own goal.

3 ) He acted trying to save his position and the gravy train implied for his keeping it. But now he must worry if his potential testimony is worth the cash to silence him, or will he become Shipping Moo II? The numbers of national losses are so stratospheric, that 'Death By Mis-adventure' surely is not ruled out at certain tables of power...to ensure their survival.

4 ) The levels of water left when the Dems departed were manageable, and nothing approaching the Gargantuan Cluster FROC it has turned into. What was a manageable loss of a crop has become a national disaster of proportions never seen before, with world wide international repercussion for most people.

5 ) There MUST be a SERIOUS inquiry, or off-shore Investors will not be pleased, the families of the 530+ dead will not be pleased, and there will STILL be more than adequate information to keelhaul dozens of PTP and coalition partners over all this.

6 Not finding the reasons and dealing with it, will be communicated at lightning speed, and NOT FORGOTTEN by those MILLIONS of displaced people. And certainly many reds were in that number in Bangkok too, and of course all over upcountry. The Reds expect their lives to be reconstructed and THEN made better, by those they have backed. Not doing so would be a massive political cock up.

They will need more than the usual spin cycles to bury this 14, Billion Cubic Meter Gorilla sitting in the corner asking for bananas daily.

Edited November 11, 2011 by animatic

[SICHONSTEVE]

Please let me know :(1) Which part that you think I proposed a flaw wisdom? (2) Which part of my assertion that can be nullified by the observed sequence of events? The truth is hard to prove. But the flaw is opposite.

The whole of (1), the whole of (2) and I simply don't understand the meaning of the last bit!!!.

This is my erstwhile reply to ResX's pearls of wisdom - just in case you are confused!! I'm flummoxed by the way!!!

Understood. I think I can't help much.

There is mutual agreement between us at last!!!

[sbk]

a NOTE: if you cannot quote without removing the persons post then DO NOT QUOTE. Please do not remove text from within the quote boxes. Post UNDER the end quote .

[animatic]

a NOTE: if you cannot quote without removing the persons post then DO NOT QUOTE. Please do not remove text from within the quote boxes. Post UNDER the end quote .

...Please do not remove text from within the quote boxes....

So, the use of elipses to comment on a specific component of a long quote is no longer valid?

[DocN]

Yeah Thad Mr "Know all" said Abhi is responsible even though he's seen the "ministers confession" after 5 emails I got some what bored read all his &lt;deleted&gt; so challenged him to carry on the argument on TV,so far no cigar :lol:

I suppose Abhisit is responsible for the Greek and Italian problems as well - not to mention all the world problems and problems of the Universe!!!!:jap:.

Sorry...but no! That would be Thaksin!

[DocN]

The desperation of the spinners on this one is palpable like rancid butter.

1 ) The man admitted he gave the orders.

Mea culpa crash and burn... Own Goal on the world stage.

2 ) But clearly he was trying to please someone in the new government who discreetly made their 'wishes' known to him; 'save the rice crop right now' being a main candidate.

Whom was he trying to please? Just the implication without a 'direct order' quoted, is very solid tar and feather own goal.

3 ) He acted trying to save his position and the gravy train implied for his keeping it. But now he must worry if his potential testimony is worth the cash to silence him, or will he become Shipping Moo II? The numbers of national losses are so stratospheric, that 'Death By Mis-adventure' surely is not ruled out at certain tables of power...to ensure their survival.

4 ) The levels of water left when the Dems departed were manageable, and nothing approaching the Gargantuan Cluster FROC it has turned into. What was a manageable loss of a crop has become a national disaster of proportions never seen before, with world wide international repercussion for most people.

5 ) There MUST be a SERIOUS inquiry, or off-shore Investors will not be pleased, the families of the 530+ dead will not be pleased, and there will STILL be more than adequate information to keelhaul dozens of PTP and coalition partners over all this.

6 Not finding the reasons and dealing with it, will be communicated at lightning speed, and NOT FORGOTTEN by those MILLIONS of displaced people. And certainly many reds were in that number in Bangkok too, and of course all over upcountry. The Reds expect their lives to be reconstructed and THEN made better, by those they have backed. Not doing so would be a massive political cock up.

They will need more than the usual spin cycles to bury this 14, Billion Cubic Meter Gorilla sitting in the corner asking for bananas daily.

I love the part with the gorilla!