Inner Bangkok Will Not Be Submerged

[webfact]

Inner Bangkok will not be submerged

The Nation

If the capital does get inundated, floods in inner Bangkok should be no more than 30centimetre high, flood and water management experts from Switzerland were quoted as telling the premier yesterday.

Deputy government spokesman Anuttama Amornwiwat said the experts had offered short and longterm solutions to deal with future crises, and also checked tapwater to find that it still met international standards.

The experts, led by Swiss ambassador Christine Schraner Burgener, met with Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra at Government House yesterday. Burgener is reported to have said that she was pleasantly surprised to see Thai people smiling despite their problems.

-- The Nation 2011-11-11

[tominbkk]

I don't know how they make these predictions. And anyways, look at all they have gotten wrong so far...sure, it might not flood, but it also might flood...they need to stop pretending that they know what is going to happen and admit that they are all incompetent.

[erobando]

I don't know how they make these predictions. And anyways, look at all they have gotten wrong so far...sure, it might not flood, but it also might flood...they need to stop pretending that they know what is going to happen and admit that they are all incompetent.

Just by viewing an elevation map one can see any flooding to inner Bangkok will be minimal.

[whybother]

It would need to be 2012 material to submerge all those skyscrapers.

They're predicting that it will only get to the second floor.

[webfact]

Altitude maps

http://thailakorntv.com/2011/10/altitude-map-of-bangkok-elevation-picture-thailand/

http://bkkbaseface.wordpress.com/2011/10/24/bangkok-flood-elevation-map/

[Reasonableman]

While it may be argued that this is true, such admissions would only undermine already highly vulnerable morale. Can't see much benefit resulting from such admissions, really. If the powers that be declare themselves incompetent, what happens after that?

I don't know how they make these predictions. And anyways, look at all they have gotten wrong so far...sure, it might not flood, but it also might flood...they need to stop pretending that they know what is going to happen and admit that they are all incompetent.

Edited November 11, 2011 by Reasonableman

[givenall]

I don't know how they make these predictions. And anyways, look at all they have gotten wrong so far...sure, it might not flood, but it also might flood...they need to stop pretending that they know what is going to happen and admit that they are all incompetent.

Just by viewing an elevation map one can see any flooding to inner Bangkok will be minimal.

WHere can i see the elevation map?

[travelmann]

Hang on yestedray it was going to be a metre and the second wave a metre and a half according to Graham someone or other.

Why dont they all just say 50 metres and that way theyll have covered all options.

[webfact]

I don't know how they make these predictions. And anyways, look at all they have gotten wrong so far...sure, it might not flood, but it also might flood...they need to stop pretending that they know what is going to happen and admit that they are all incompetent.

Just by viewing an elevation map one can see any flooding to inner Bangkok will be minimal.

WHere can i see the elevation map?

in my post #5............

[BigRick]

I was out in the floods yesterday it moved from JJ market to Sapan Qua in two days. It is coming slowly but surely. JJ was dry and only a couple of days ago only one lane had water now that place is a lake.

[Kvwielink]

The experts led by the Swiss ambassador? What makes her the expert? Last time I checked Switzerland is mostly comprised of mountains, and flooding is hardly an issue there.

I'm getting so bloody tired of all these so called experts "knowing" for sure what is going to happen. So far, they've all been wrong. Why has no one bothered to program a proper simulation tool? I'm pretty sure most technical universities would have a few students who can make something like that. We know the elevation of the terrain from satellite measurements, I'm sure the same can be used to properly calculate the amount of water, we know where the barriers are located, etc. Put all the variables in a computer, and run a few scenarios. That way we know what all these predictions are based on. Right now, the Swiss ambassador's guess is as good as mine...

[whybother]

The experts led by the Swiss ambassador? What makes her the expert? Last time I checked Switzerland is mostly comprised of mountains, and flooding is hardly an issue there.

I'm getting so bloody tired of all these so called experts "knowing" for sure what is going to happen. So far, they've all been wrong. Why has no one bothered to program a proper simulation tool? I'm pretty sure most technical universities would have a few students who can make something like that. We know the elevation of the terrain from satellite measurements, I'm sure the same can be used to properly calculate the amount of water, we know where the barriers are located, etc. Put all the variables in a computer, and run a few scenarios. That way we know what all these predictions are based on. Right now, the Swiss ambassador's guess is as good as mine...

Flooding is a serious issue in Switzerland. But it's usually flash flooding - coming through suddenly, causing lots of damage, gone. Nothing like the slow moving flooding being experienced here at the moment.

[sting123]

The experts led by the Swiss ambassador? What makes her the expert? Last time I checked Switzerland is mostly comprised of mountains, and flooding is hardly an issue there.

I'm getting so bloody tired of all these so called experts "knowing" for sure what is going to happen. So far, they've all been wrong. Why has no one bothered to program a proper simulation tool? I'm pretty sure most technical universities would have a few students who can make something like that. We know the elevation of the terrain from satellite measurements, I'm sure the same can be used to properly calculate the amount of water, we know where the barriers are located, etc. Put all the variables in a computer, and run a few scenarios. That way we know what all these predictions are based on. Right now, the Swiss ambassador's guess is as good as mine...

Feeling better mate?????????? so maybe now you can take the time to read it (the article) and understand it.

I am not a native, but to me the obvious fact stated is :

The Swiss Ambassador led water management experts .... It does not mean the Ambassador is an expert in water management; merely that official presented said (or so called) experts to the Royal Thai government.

Second, I would invite you to spend some time in spring in Martiny, or in Gruyere, and then come back to us with your thoughts about flash flood in Switzerland. Having grow up in a similar region, I can tell flood are a potential catastrophe every spring. It is true it is more related to catastrophe management, while Nederland experts are more focused on day to day water management; but somehow it would seems today the first nameds are in need; while the holland guys will be needed AFTER (to avoid it to happen again).

you reflexion is similar to californian peoples laughting out of loud ob so called french seismic experts or tsunami expert located in French Riviera; untill they discovered that region is most active in both (half a dozen of quakes per year with half of them followed by tsunami .... said tsunami sending boats 100 m inside the coast ; happened twice in 1998 for example).

[BlackJack]

http://www.economist.com/node/304819

[robblok]

We are in the yellow (2-3m) part on that elevation map. Most of BKK is not yellow its all lower. We have been flooded more then 65 cm in the streets. So please tell me why BKK would not flood.

All the parts in the north west and north east are higher as Bangkok. I guess water does behave different in Thailand. Maybe their dams will hold.. maybe not. I hope.. BKK wont flood but i dont think its chances are good.

I dont expect meters of water in BKK but 30cm is still flooded is not ?

[Kvwielink]

The experts led by the Swiss ambassador? What makes her the expert? Last time I checked Switzerland is mostly comprised of mountains, and flooding is hardly an issue there.

I'm getting so bloody tired of all these so called experts "knowing" for sure what is going to happen. So far, they've all been wrong. Why has no one bothered to program a proper simulation tool? I'm pretty sure most technical universities would have a few students who can make something like that. We know the elevation of the terrain from satellite measurements, I'm sure the same can be used to properly calculate the amount of water, we know where the barriers are located, etc. Put all the variables in a computer, and run a few scenarios. That way we know what all these predictions are based on. Right now, the Swiss ambassador's guess is as good as mine...

Feeling better mate?????????? so maybe now you can take the time to read it (the article) and understand it.

I am not a native, but to me the obvious fact stated is :

The Swiss Ambassador led water management experts .... It does not mean the Ambassador is an expert in water management; merely that official presented said (or so called) experts to the Royal Thai government.

Second, I would invite you to spend some time in spring in Martiny, or in Gruyere, and then come back to us with your thoughts about flash flood in Switzerland. Having grow up in a similar region, I can tell flood are a potential catastrophe every spring. It is true it is more related to catastrophe management, while Nederland experts are more focused on day to day water management; but somehow it would seems today the first nameds are in need; while the holland guys will be needed AFTER (to avoid it to happen again).

you reflexion is similar to californian peoples laughting out of loud ob so called french seismic experts or tsunami expert located in French Riviera; untill they discovered that region is most active in both (half a dozen of quakes per year with half of them followed by tsunami .... said tsunami sending boats 100 m inside the coast ; happened twice in 1998 for example).

I'll concede that I wasn't aware of flash flooding being a problem in Switzerland, my bad. However, that still does not change the fact that we're not dealing with a flash flood. We're dealing with a huge amount of water that does not want to go away fast enough. Regardless of whoever the "experts" are that are being pulled in, be they Dutch, Swiss, Thai, or whatever else, so far I have not seen a single explanation based on facts or statistical analysis such as a simulation of the current situation. They all pull their explanations out of their hats, often contradicting each other directly, yet they're all expert and all claim to know best. Show me what these claims are based on, so that we can make our own informed decision of whether they're trying to sell us another fairytale (Bangkok won't flood....) or whether we can actually rely on the information for a change.

Secondly, politicians need to stay far, far away from all this. They know *bleep* all about water management and should leave the decision making to those who do. They're the ones who got us into this mess, and they're certainly not capable of getting us out. This includes the PM, Abhisit, Sukhumband, and all the others who are more interested in saving their precious votes than the country as a whole. That's why I get annoyed when I see that yet another ambassador is pulled into the picture. I don't care if the experts are "led" (whatever that might mean if my interpretation's not correct) by the Swiss ambassador or by Santa Claus. If they're experts, get the job done. If not, go home and keep your comments to yourself.

[Card]

I didn't know Switzerland was an experienced country regarding flood management. Doesn't have a coastline and is mountainous. They should stick to corrupt and secretive banking, watches and chocolate. I'd much rather the Dutch be advising on Bangkok flood control.

[w11guy]

I don't know how they make these predictions. And anyways, look at all they have gotten wrong so far...sure, it might not flood, but it also might flood...they need to stop pretending that they know what is going to happen and admit that they are all incompetent.

If you think they are incompetent and don't know what's going on then why are you taking such an interest in what they say?

[dominique355]

And how do they define "inner Bangkok"? A rather elastic definition, it seems. I am in one of these inner, save locations and I can tell you, the flooding is here and rising.

Amazing, all these self proclaimed experts all of a sudden, even from Switzerland! I am Swiss and we certainly never had flooding like this, ever. So I wonder where they get their expertise.

Rule of thumb: When this government tells you that you are save: RUN!

[blanco]

The flooding is not coming to inner Bangkok. End of.

[IMA_FARANG]

The experts led by the Swiss ambassador? What makes her the expert? Last time I checked Switzerland is mostly comprised of mountains, and flooding is hardly an issue there.

I'm getting so bloody tired of all these so called experts "knowing" for sure what is going to happen. So far, they've all been wrong. Why has no one bothered to program a proper simulation tool? I'm pretty sure most technical universities would have a few students who can make something like that. We know the elevation of the terrain from satellite measurements, I'm sure the same can be used to properly calculate the amount of water, we know where the barriers are located, etc. Put all the variables in a computer, and run a few scenarios. That way we know what all these predictions are based on. Right now, the Swiss ambassador's guess is as good as mine...

-----------------------

That kind of thinking...that there is an elvation map that can be used...is exactly the problem.

All the avaiable maps simply assume that the ACTUAL elevation is based on the LAND alone.

It is not.

That is because of at least two (maybe more) factors that are being ignored. Just a couple of quick examples.

* Highways and streets, particularly intersections. Intersections are often slightly lower than the roads that lead into them. Perhaps by only the proverbial "silly millimeter", but the water flows into those intersections just for that reason...and then pools there. Once that pool in the intersection is deep enough, that water finds another lower point, and flows there also...to start another pool. Wfen these pools join and a larger pool is formed...to start seeking another place to flow.

* Deviders between lanes. Time and time again you see on television flooded areas where water is flowing into intersections. One side of the road has no water...the other lane has perhaps 10 cm of water. OFTEN the deepest part of that water is along the CENTER DEVIDERS and is FLOWING either into or out of a flooded area along that center devider,

The point I wanted to make is that there is no accurate map of the elevation of Bangkok FROM THE FLOODWATER'S point of view because the obstructions caused by manmade objects (such as buildings, roads, walls, intersections, center deviders) does NOT appear on any elevation map of Bangkok...and that these MANMADE obstructions and flood paths determine where the floodwater goes...because at the floodwater's viewpoint they are what detrmines where the floodwater goes.

Land elvation is only a baseline, a starting point only.

That's why such maps are only approximations at best.

Edited November 11, 2011 by IMA_FARANG

[Payboy]

Burgener is reported to have said that she was pleasantly surprised to see Thai people smiling despite their problems.

<deleted>, where do these diplomats come up with those ass-kissing cliches?

[DocN]

I am getting so tired of this. According to "experts" my place (Narathiwas/Surawongse) will stay dry...or get 50 cm...or a meter....or 1,50...

The "climax" of this was the breaking news in the other paper:

6:57- flood will be over by Nov 20

9:06- flood unlikely to end in 10 days

Wake me, when it's over!

[GentlemanJim]

Well, now we have it, the Thai Government can blame the Swiss. If the water does come and goes 1 cm over 30 cm then it will be the fault of the Swiss experts. I feel the Swiss Ambassador would have been better staying well out of what is a highly charged political situation as well as everything else, and perhaps should just concentrate on smiling herself and handing out Ferrero Rocher.

[Payboy]

Ferrero Rocher

Is Italian no?

[OzMick]

Burgener is reported to have said that she was pleasantly surprised to see Thai people smiling despite their problems.

<deleted>, where do these diplomats come up with those ass-kissing cliches?

Well she was talking to Yingluk, and what else is she good at. OK, crying too. Hmmm, possible bi-polar disorder?

[Familyonthemove]

Ferrero Rocher

Is Italian no?

Can't buy is anyway .... 'mai mee, naam tuum'

[wlcart]

that elevation map is painful to look at. My house (west bkk) has been under a meter+ water for two weeks and it's elevation is higher that most other parts of the city.

I am no expert but pretty sure water should flow high to low. Talk to me until your blue in the face about the need to save inner Bangkok (what ever that means) but I want my home back.

[WhizBang]

Inner Bangkok will not be submerged

The Nation

If the capital does get inundated, floods in inner Bangkok should be no more than 30centimetre high, flood and water management experts from Switzerland were quoted as telling the premier yesterday.

Totally misleading title.

The title says 'Bangkok will not be submerged', then the first line says 'If the capital does get inundated, floods in inner Bangkok should be no more than 30centimetre high'.

Sorry, but 30 cm under water IS submerged, in my book anyway.

[GentlemanJim]

Ferrero Rocher

Is Italian no?

Yes but the point that eluded you was it was not the origin of the chocolate, it was the fact that their (Ferrero) most successful advertising campaign was the one that suggested that this was the Chocolate of choice for Ambassadors to give out at cocktail parties

Keep up mate