Floods - What Now?

[cowslip]

The Thai media when reporting the flood crisis has seemingly largely taken one or other of two approaches; the stiff upper lip, true grit of the people approach or the blame game – seeking either to make political gain or just pin blame just about anyone and anywhere but in particular on the government accusing them of failing to control practically everything from the sand bags, sluice-gates to the very weather itself.

The admin both past and present has turned out to be run largely by those of the "King Canute" school of flood control.

However all of this seems to me to be a calculated effort to divert the public's attention from the elephant in the room…. Namely that of the failure of successive governments and the ruling elite to listen to advice given to them for fifty years or more concerning the impending fate of Bangkok and take any significant prophylactic action in the years prior to this disaster.

So now the worst has happened (is it really the worst?) the media is still concentrating on the "politics" and "Human interest" stories, but at some time they will have to face the naked truth – that Bangkok has been vulnerable for decades and still is…. and furthermore that this sort of flooding is more likely than ever to repeat itself and sooner rather than later. There is nothing to prevent the same thing happening NEXT YEAR and every subsequent year if the weather is so inclined.

Yet government after government has failed to heed the warnings or take action – preferring in the past rather then spend money, to either line their own pockets, pander to their own electorate or avoid any confrontational and potentially unpopular issues.

The opposition has threatened all sorts of legal actions against the current government but in the end they too will have to be called to account for their years of inaction and ignorance regarding the fate of Bangkok. Of course they are hoping that the more they shout the more the fingers will point at the present government and the less likely it is that their own shortcomings will be brought to light.

It seems to me that what is needed now is an UNBIASED commission to look into two main issues….

1 – How the flooding was handled by the various bodies concerned – e.g. Government and BMA etc.

2 – What to do in the future? All aspects need to be looked at a planned for. Management of both water and people. Looking at possible civil engineering solutions and the environmental causes and impact.

If a Royal Commission is appointed it must be represent all interests and be across party lines – this will serve to protect the government and their critics against accusations that they are politicising the situation

Let's hope that common sense rather than petty political squabbling prevails and a non-partisan National Commission will look into the whole thing. Then maybe Bangkok (and other parts of Thailand) can look forward to a more stable and less sodden future.

[gregb]

About the best you are going to get in this case I think is the lawsuit that people like my family are planning to join. The ruling of the courts may not amount to justice in the end, but much of the seedy underside of what happened in the latest flooding will surely be brought to the surface, and that should include at least some discussion on the failure of both this and previous governments to plan properly. Given the court room setting there will be ample time for both sides to make their case known. You clearly believe that the opposition is wrong in this case, and I strongly believe the opposite. But let the truth be known as best it can be presented and see where it leads.

There isn't anyone in this currently polarized country that is truly neutral, politics will always invade everything, so a court room battle where everyone can draw their own conclusions is likely the optimum.

Whether that will have any impact on how future money is spent I can't say. In a country with a sense of responsibility it clearly would, but I don't trust anyone in this country to put long term interest over short term profit.

[cowslip]

I agree that what I outline is optimistic but I also think that it is pretty much essential if Thailand is serious about becoming a democracy.

It's all too easy to take the "old lag expat" cynical view and talk about "they best you are likely to get" etc.....

However the whole point of a commission is not that the MEMBERS are non- partisan but that the RESULTS are non-partisan. Expecting people to be unbiased is unrealistic - No reasonable person can expect anyone else to be totally unbiased - objectivity maybe, but unbiased is pretty impossible in any country. So a commission would be set up across political divides and outside politics altogether.,,,scientists, experts etc - people who know what they are talking about.

In my opinion, taking legal action is a BIG mistake. Firstly it involves the tortuous decrepit and highly biased Thai legal system. Secondly it is a step back from democracy. Thailand has repeated shied away from the ballot box in favour of spurious litigation and coups - this only panders to that side of Thai politics.

Legal action if any should be limited to simple claims for damages not a political attack on the government. A COMMISSION is far better placed to do that.

By definition a courtroom "battle" must be antagonistic and confrontational - as the root causes for the flooding problems go back several years there can be no positive outcome for anyone on this except those trying to make political gain.

About the best you are going to get in this case I think is the lawsuit that people like my family are planning to join. The ruling of the courts may not amount to justice in the end, but much of the seedy underside of what happened in the latest flooding will surely be brought to the surface, and that should include at least some discussion on the failure of both this and previous governments to plan properly. Given the court room setting there will be ample time for both sides to make their case known. You clearly believe that the opposition is wrong in this case, and I strongly believe the opposite. But let the truth be known as best it can be presented and see where it leads.

There isn't anyone in this currently polarized country that is truly neutral, politics will always invade everything, so a court room battle where everyone can draw their own conclusions is likely the optimum.

Whether that will have any impact on how future money is spent I can't say. In a country with a sense of responsibility it clearly would, but I don't trust anyone in this country to put long term interest over short term profit.

[Kwasaki]

There is nothing to prevent the same thing happening NEXT YEAR and every subsequent year if the weather is so inclined.

Sadly yes !! We were talking only yesterday about this, about when the 2011 rain for North seemed to start early before Songkran, never seen so much rain on a regular basis in the 7 years of living here.

There's still alot of water still about down South so there's not much time left before the top up, if the same happens in 2012.

They had better get busy now digging waterway systems for overflow and flooding use, instead of arguing who fault it is.

People affected have my sympathies and for me in that situation, especially owners, I would be looking at alteration to the property, a total rebuild or move.

[cowslip]

There is nothing to prevent the same thing happening NEXT YEAR and every subsequent year if the weather is so inclined.

Sadly yes !! We were talking only yesterday about this, about when the 2011 rain for North seemed to start early before Songkran, never seen so much rain on a regular basis in the 7 years of living here.

There's still alot of water still about down South so there's not much time left before the top up, if the same happens in 2012.

They had better get busy now digging waterway systems for overflow and flooding use, instead of arguing who fault it is.

People affected have my sympathies and for me in that situation, especially owners, I would be looking at alteration to the property, a total rebuild or move.

...and there's no way legal action is going make flood prevention happen.

[gregb]

There is nothing to prevent the same thing happening NEXT YEAR and every subsequent year if the weather is so inclined.

Sadly yes !! We were talking only yesterday about this, about when the 2011 rain for North seemed to start early before Songkran, never seen so much rain on a regular basis in the 7 years of living here.

There's still alot of water still about down South so there's not much time left before the top up, if the same happens in 2012.

They had better get busy now digging waterway systems for overflow and flooding use, instead of arguing who fault it is.

People affected have my sympathies and for me in that situation, especially owners, I would be looking at alteration to the property, a total rebuild or move.

...and there's no way legal action is going make flood prevention happen.

Nevertheless it is the only mechanism available right now. There is no such thing as a non partisan anything in this environment. The current situation *IS* confrontational on every front, and will remain that way until the chief instigator of that division is eliminated. Do not expect anything of substance to happen on a political front.

There is no point in pretending it can be otherwise. The only even marginally functional institution remaining in this country is the courts, and no matter how bad they may be, I support using them whenever possible. The alternative is not some fairy tale unbiased commission, but bullets in the streets. Neither one of those will create new drainage systems either, and people have way too much invested to simply move away.

The only hope is to force those responsible to actually be responsible. And the only avenue for that is the courts.

[cowslip]

There is nothing to prevent the same thing happening NEXT YEAR and every subsequent year if the weather is so inclined.

Sadly yes !! We were talking only yesterday about this, about when the 2011 rain for North seemed to start early before Songkran, never seen so much rain on a regular basis in the 7 years of living here.

There's still alot of water still about down South so there's not much time left before the top up, if the same happens in 2012.

They had better get busy now digging waterway systems for overflow and flooding use, instead of arguing who fault it is.

People affected have my sympathies and for me in that situation, especially owners, I would be looking at alteration to the property, a total rebuild or move.

...and there's no way legal action is going make flood prevention happen.

Nevertheless it is the only mechanism available right now. There is no such thing as a non partisan anything in this environment. The current situation *IS* confrontational on every front, and will remain that way until the chief instigator of that division is eliminated. Do not expect anything of substance to happen on a political front.

There is no point in pretending it can be otherwise. The only even marginally functional institution remaining in this country is the courts, and no matter how bad they may be, I support using them whenever possible. The alternative is not some fairy tale unbiased commission, but bullets in the streets. Neither one of those will create new drainage systems either, and people have way too much invested to simply move away.

The only hope is to force those responsible to actually be responsible. And the only avenue for that is the courts.

I think you haven;t fully grasped what I'm suggesting

Taking legal action is aout as effective as eating soups with chopsticks......

Read my ideas on partisanship again...you'll see how it works and is shown to work elsewhere - it is a standard format for a commission otherwise their conclusions aren't respected - as I said before.

THe courses are a major NON-Functioning institution in Thailand as they are not independent. this is just basic constitutional theory......i've also said why using them is anti-democratic.

In all you're just making assumptions based on unfounded and prejudiced ideas about Thailand.

[gregb]

Sadly yes !! We were talking only yesterday about this, about when the 2011 rain for North seemed to start early before Songkran, never seen so much rain on a regular basis in the 7 years of living here.

There's still alot of water still about down South so there's not much time left before the top up, if the same happens in 2012.

They had better get busy now digging waterway systems for overflow and flooding use, instead of arguing who fault it is.

People affected have my sympathies and for me in that situation, especially owners, I would be looking at alteration to the property, a total rebuild or move.

...and there's no way legal action is going make flood prevention happen.

Nevertheless it is the only mechanism available right now. There is no such thing as a non partisan anything in this environment. The current situation *IS* confrontational on every front, and will remain that way until the chief instigator of that division is eliminated. Do not expect anything of substance to happen on a political front.

There is no point in pretending it can be otherwise. The only even marginally functional institution remaining in this country is the courts, and no matter how bad they may be, I support using them whenever possible. The alternative is not some fairy tale unbiased commission, but bullets in the streets. Neither one of those will create new drainage systems either, and people have way too much invested to simply move away.

The only hope is to force those responsible to actually be responsible. And the only avenue for that is the courts.

I think you haven;t fully grasped what I'm suggesting

Taking legal action is aout as effective as eating soups with chopsticks......

Read my ideas on partisanship again...you'll see how it works and is shown to work elsewhere - it is a standard format for a commission otherwise their conclusions aren't respected - as I said before.

THe courses are a major NON-Functioning institution in Thailand as they are not independent. this is just basic constitutional theory......i've also said why using them is anti-democratic.

In all you're just making assumptions based on unfounded and prejudiced ideas about Thailand.

I hear what you are saying. I simply believe you are wrong.

The courts and legal actions may not be perfect, but they are the optimum solution in this environment. You can hope for some mythical unbiased party to solve this all you want. But the short and skinny is that there isn't one today, and there won't be one tomorrow. There will however, be a court action.

That is something that is real and not a pipe dream.

[cowslip]

I was right -you don't understand. Sometimes I wonder why I bother posting on TV, you get the same level of response 90% of the time.

[Kwasaki]

Taking legal action is aout as effective as eating soups with chopsticks

Good way of putting it.

I was right -you don't understand. Sometimes I wonder why I bother posting on TV, you get the same level of response 90% of the time.

Bit unfair some people believe in a legal system even in Thailand. but I would not want to wait that long even if it worked.

Before the next possible Thailand flood situation I believe it's a case of don't wait for your country or courts to do something for you, you have to do something about it yourself whatever your situation.

[BuddhistDruid]

While I admit as a flood victim I am in favor of the lawsuit, I recognize that there is little it or anything else will accomplish. It is impossible to get anyone in Bangkok to do what is necessary to turn the city around. It would require a massive investment and a complete rethink of what it means to be a modern, world class city. Watching what happened I can't help but think of Seoul. Seoul completely destroyed a 6km section of a super highway in the middle of the city. They turned the space into a river with walking paths.

This kind of action required courage. It required vision. And it required commitment to ideals. If Bangkok truly wishes to be saved, it needs to redesign itself. The auto manufacturers need to be kicked out, and public transportation needs to be made the rule rather than the exception. A trillion baht won't do anything to save the city if the plan does not include the political will to not only stop but reverse the development. Roads impede the natural flow of water. The demolition of the highway in Seoul has been so popular with the residents that 84 additional highways are now facing the chopping block. Can anyone honestly see that happening in Thailand?

Without this kind of radical new thought, this is all just so much hot air, and nothing really matters anyway. I am waiting to find out how I can join the class action lawsuit against the government. I know nobody has the will to prevent the flooding in the future, so I just want as much money as I can get to protect my own house from future disasters. I may never get anything, but I can always hope an out of court settlement can be reached. Sorry if that doesn't meet the high ideals of some of the people here, but the truth is you would feel similarly if you were in my place and looking at 500,000 baht in damages. I can spend the money much more effectively and intelligently than the government can.

[Gweiloman]

I hear what you are saying. I simply believe you are wrong.

The courts and legal actions may not be perfect, but they are the optimum solution in this environment. You can hope for some mythical unbiased party to solve this all you want. But the short and skinny is that there isn't one today, and there won't be one tomorrow. There will however, be a court action.

That is something that is real and not a pipe dream.

Maybe I'm missing something here but who are you going to sue and why? Last I heard, Mother Nature does not respond to any lawsuits. As to the Govt, any perceived incompetency is extremely difficult if not impossible to prove. Ultimately, the simple get out card for the Govt is that certain areas would have to be flooded for the greater good. Are you then planning to sue merely for compensation for the Govt's decision?

[gregb]

I hear what you are saying. I simply believe you are wrong.

The courts and legal actions may not be perfect, but they are the optimum solution in this environment. You can hope for some mythical unbiased party to solve this all you want. But the short and skinny is that there isn't one today, and there won't be one tomorrow. There will however, be a court action.

That is something that is real and not a pipe dream.

Maybe I'm missing something here but who are you going to sue and why? Last I heard, Mother Nature does not respond to any lawsuits. As to the Govt, any perceived incompetency is extremely difficult if not impossible to prove. Ultimately, the simple get out card for the Govt is that certain areas would have to be flooded for the greater good. Are you then planning to sue merely for compensation for the Govt's decision?

You can be assured Mother Nature won't be on the lists of defendants. Those who mismanaged the dams and those who ordered the construction of a dam in the middle of Bangkok made out of 2.5 ton sandbags without properly compensating those they injured behind the dam most certainly will be. I have no problem accepting this decision was for the greater good. I also have no problem accepting that sometimes the government must build a highway where someone's house is located for the greater good. But in both instances they must pay the affected party for destroying their property.

That is what the lawsuit is about. Responsibility for dam mismanagement, and proper compensation for the "greater good" flood plans. Since we all agree it was for the greater good, those receiving the benefits of that greater good should not object to paying for it.

[Gweiloman]

I hear what you are saying. I simply believe you are wrong.

The courts and legal actions may not be perfect, but they are the optimum solution in this environment. You can hope for some mythical unbiased party to solve this all you want. But the short and skinny is that there isn't one today, and there won't be one tomorrow. There will however, be a court action.

That is something that is real and not a pipe dream.

Maybe I'm missing something here but who are you going to sue and why? Last I heard, Mother Nature does not respond to any lawsuits. As to the Govt, any perceived incompetency is extremely difficult if not impossible to prove. Ultimately, the simple get out card for the Govt is that certain areas would have to be flooded for the greater good. Are you then planning to sue merely for compensation for the Govt's decision?

You can be assured Mother Nature won't be on the lists of defendants. Those who mismanaged the dams and those who ordered the construction of a dam in the middle of Bangkok made out of 2.5 ton sandbags without properly compensating those they injured behind the dam most certainly will be. I have no problem accepting this decision was for the greater good. I also have no problem accepting that sometimes the government must build a highway where someone's house is located for the greater good. But in both instances they must pay the affected party for destroying their property.

That is what the lawsuit is about. Responsibility for dam mismanagement, and proper compensation for the "greater good" flood plans. Since we all agree it was for the greater good, those receiving the benefits of that greater good should not object to paying for it.

I'm all with you regarding compensation by the Govt for being flooded out, in order to save other (deemed) more critical areas. I just wonder if a lawsuit is the way to go in the first instance.

The dam mismanagement issue however is something else altogether. With Thailand facing both possible drought and possible floods in the same year, I think it is unlikely that any court will want to find anyone guilty of mismanagement, especially as there is no SOP for unprecedented rainfall.

In any case, all the best of luck in your pursuit of (IMO, highly justified) compensation.

[gregb]

The dam mismanagement issue however is something else altogether. With Thailand facing both possible drought and possible floods in the same year, I think it is unlikely that any court will want to find anyone guilty of mismanagement, especially as there is no SOP for unprecedented rainfall.

That comes down to whether or not the court finds that the politicians who ordered the water not to be released from the dams in order to allow the rice crops to be harvested should have listened to the meteorologists who warned them of the massive low pressure fronts that were expected back in August. The earlier authorities may be able to play that they couldn't have known. That will be a very difficult argument to justify later on. And it then comes down to deciding how much damage occurred as a result of their failure to act decisively when they did know a problem was brewing.

I can't answer that, but I will be very interested in hearing experts argue the point during the court proceedings. And hopefully it will put future politicians on notice that they can't ignore their responsibilities to the people for the benefit of a small group of constituents. With any luck, the next crop of politicians will not be so confident that they can destroy people's lives and get away with it.

[cowslip]

those who sue the govt are beyond the pale and I hope that they see how irrelevant and unhelpful their action is before they waste a load of time and money.

on the other side of the coin,maybe they'll all lose a shed load of cash in this futile operation and learn from it.

meanwhile others will try to protect Thailand from the aftermath and further damage, rather than serve their own ignorant and bigoted self-interest

[gregb]

those who sue the govt are beyond the pale and I hope that they see how irrelevant and unhelpful their action is before they waste a load of time and money.

on the other side of the coin,maybe they'll all lose a shed load of cash in this futile operation and learn from it.

meanwhile others will try to protect Thailand from the aftermath and further damage, rather than serve their own ignorant and bigoted self-interest

It is truly sad to watch those who try and take the moral high ground fall into a moral sewer.

I will however continue to serve the interests of righteousness and justice by suing those who are responsible for this disaster to take responsibility for their actions, and let those who are incapable of understanding the moral basis for those actions continue to blather away and fester in their own delusions.

[cowslip]

those who sue the govt are beyond the pale and I hope that they see how irrelevant and unhelpful their action is before they waste a load of time and money.

on the other side of the coin,maybe they'll all lose a shed load of cash in this futile operation and learn from it.

meanwhile others will try to protect Thailand from the aftermath and further damage, rather than serve their own ignorant and bigoted self-interest

It is truly sad to watch those who try and take the moral high ground fall into a moral sewer.

I will however continue to serve the interests of righteousness and justice by suing those who are responsible for this disaster to take responsibility for their actions, and let those who are incapable of understanding the moral basis for those actions continue to blather away and fester in their own delusions.

...and you seriously think you can say who is responsible.....and then SUE them?????

I think you are suffering from the "Dunning Kruger Effect"