Where Will The Usd V. Thb Peak This Year?

[Thighlander]

OK a two part question 1) what is the most THB you will be able to get for a Dollar this year in Thailand (your prediction)?

2) If the Dollar hits parity with the Euro; what will be their values in THB.

I say Dollar goes to 35, and will hit parity with the Euro at 36...possibly in the first half of the year.

Sheeers!

[rakman]

There are many variables. 1) does the Euro survive? 1a) European political stability 2) Does the US Fed to more Quatitative Easing? 2a) US economic recovery 3) Middle East oil and political stability. 4) US economy 5) Thai economy. 6) World economy.

Many more things to consider, pick some of your own.

Roll the dice. My thoughts are QE3 will hurt, as will the Middle East. If the Euro goes down, it may cause a panic up or down, depending on how well the European banks have prepared to issue new currencies and deal with bond and financial instruments, and how well non-European countries and banks can tolerate the "event".

The US is in a very slow recovery, as is much of the world. The primary job loss is in housing, construction and financial. Unfortunately, high unemployment is found in young in-experienced (high school dropout) 18-25 year olds (25%) and 18-25 year old high school grads (15%). While the government claims 8.5 % unemployment, one has to look at how unemployment is calculated. If you're working, you're employed. If you're collecting unemployment, you're unemployed. If you're neither, you're not counted. The US Laborforce Participation rate is down to 64% from 67% in 2001, the lowest since 1980. that means there are millions of people not working, and not collecting unemployment. This will continue to be a drag on the economy. Deficit spending is at an all time high, with the National Debt exceeding GDP. In essence, the US (like many countries) is broke.

The flood hurt many aspects of electronics around the world. How badly this hurts Thailand's economy will remain to be seen. Its possible it could help with new equipment investments or upgrades.

My $.02, which continues to devaluate.

[Swiss1960]

There are many variables. 1) does the Euro survive? 1a) European political stability 2) Does the US Fed to more Quatitative Easing? 2a) US economic recovery 3) Middle East oil and political stability. 4) US economy 5) Thai economy. 6) World economy.

Many more things to consider, pick some of your own.

Roll the dice. My thoughts are QE3 will hurt, as will the Middle East. If the Euro goes down, it may cause a panic up or down, depending on how well the European banks have prepared to issue new currencies and deal with bond and financial instruments, and how well non-European countries and banks can tolerate the "event".

The US is in a very slow recovery, as is much of the world. The primary job loss is in housing, construction and financial. Unfortunately, high unemployment is found in young in-experienced (high school dropout) 18-25 year olds (25%) and 18-25 year old high school grads (15%). While the government claims 8.5 % unemployment, one has to look at how unemployment is calculated. If you're working, you're employed. If you're collecting unemployment, you're unemployed. If you're neither, you're not counted. The US Laborforce Participation rate is down to 64% from 67% in 2001, the lowest since 1980. that means there are millions of people not working, and not collecting unemployment. This will continue to be a drag on the economy. Deficit spending is at an all time high, with the National Debt exceeding GDP. In essence, the US (like many countries) is broke.

The flood hurt many aspects of electronics around the world. How badly this hurts Thailand's economy will remain to be seen. Its possible it could help with new equipment investments or upgrades.

My $.02, which continues to devaluate.

Good thoughts, would add two more factors:

6a) what will the Chinese do with their currency, open it up more and more as dealable curreny? This would drop US$ in a minute...

7) what will happen during the presidential elections in the US... depending on who is front runner, some people might withdraw from US stock exchange...

[rakman]

There are many variables. 1) does the Euro survive? 1a) European political stability 2) Does the US Fed to more Quatitative Easing? 2a) US economic recovery 3) Middle East oil and political stability. 4) US economy 5) Thai economy. 6) World economy.

Many more things to consider, pick some of your own.

Roll the dice. My thoughts are QE3 will hurt, as will the Middle East. If the Euro goes down, it may cause a panic up or down, depending on how well the European banks have prepared to issue new currencies and deal with bond and financial instruments, and how well non-European countries and banks can tolerate the "event".

The US is in a very slow recovery, as is much of the world. The primary job loss is in housing, construction and financial. Unfortunately, high unemployment is found in young in-experienced (high school dropout) 18-25 year olds (25%) and 18-25 year old high school grads (15%). While the government claims 8.5 % unemployment, one has to look at how unemployment is calculated. If you're working, you're employed. If you're collecting unemployment, you're unemployed. If you're neither, you're not counted. The US Laborforce Participation rate is down to 64% from 67% in 2001, the lowest since 1980. that means there are millions of people not working, and not collecting unemployment. This will continue to be a drag on the economy. Deficit spending is at an all time high, with the National Debt exceeding GDP. In essence, the US (like many countries) is broke.

The flood hurt many aspects of electronics around the world. How badly this hurts Thailand's economy will remain to be seen. Its possible it could help with new equipment investments or upgrades.

My $.02, which continues to devaluate.

Good thoughts, would add two more factors:

6a) what will the Chinese do with their currency, open it up more and more as dealable curreny? This would drop US$ in a minute...

7) what will happen during the presidential elections in the US... depending on who is front runner, some people might withdraw from US stock exchange...

I heard all the gloom and doom of the US in the 70's, when hi-flying Japan could have borrowed on Tokyo alone and bought all the undeveloped land in the US. Everything goes in cycles.

I disagree with 6a) the Chinese have too much US bonds, it would cripple them (expecially since they are having financial and employment problems). They are buying mines and exporting people to man them as a hedge.

We'll see what happens in November.

[el jefe]

The OP wrote:

"I say Dollar goes to 35, and will hit parity with the Euro at 36...possibly in the first half of the year."

I don't think that is a prediction. i believe it happened in 2001 or 2002.

Anyway, 35 baht to the dollar in the next 6 months?? You wish. I do too. But there's no chance of that happening.

[Thighlander]

consider: weaker THB may be just what Thailand needs to boost exports. US Stock declines (quite possible) frequently boost the strength of thr Dollar. OTOH, QE3 will be needed to keep interest rates artificially low. No one needs lower interest rates more than the US Government.

Momemtum seems to be harder to reverse in currency than stocks. The cycles have been much longer on the Dollar. No one knows for sure, and that may be a reason to be bullish on the Euro, is simply all the "experts" are now short the Euro....usually a good time to go the other way. And Jimmy Rogers says 1200 Gold by the end of the year.

[flying]

consider: weaker THB may be just what Thailand needs to boost exports. US Stock declines (quite possible) frequently boost the strength of thr Dollar. OTOH, QE3 will be needed to keep interest rates artificially low. No one needs lower interest rates more than the US Government.

Momemtum seems to be harder to reverse in currency than stocks. The cycles have been much longer on the Dollar. No one knows for sure, and that may be a reason to be bullish on the Euro, is simply all the "experts" are now short the Euro....usually a good time to go the other way. And Jimmy Rogers says 1200 Gold by the end of the year.

Agree about weaker currency boosting exports but.............It appears to me the all the currencies in the world have that same idea & if they all race to the bottom nets zero results.

I did not see the Jimmy Rodgers prediction but that too IMHO does not compute with the race to the bottom theory.

As currencies devalue through manipulation or revaluation by others......the effect is the prices of what those currencies buy goes up.

[Thighlander]

The race to the bottom would involve higher values for gold, but where is the inlation to go with it? Don't forget how steep the decline in gold was i the early 80s, along with a stronger Dollar.

[flying]

The race to the bottom would involve higher values for gold, but where is the inflation to go with it? Don't forget how steep the decline in gold was i the early 80s, along with a stronger Dollar.

Well to be honest I live in the US & contrary to the feel good reports given by the govt & based on the CPI/CP-Lie

we are in fact seeing lots of inflation in the things that matter...consumables, fuel etc.

Yet they battle/mask it by reducing weights etc & swapping what was in the basket of comparable like the CPI for cheaper

representatives.

I do remember the decline in gold in the 80's & 100% do not believe gold or commodities are invincible from

dropping given the right environment

But.........At this time the things that have made gold & other commodities rise have not been fixed.....Heck they

in reality have not even been addressed or truly acknowledged

As such I do not see a major reversal in sight based on facts. That is not to say one cannot be engineered

but that is a whole other subject & one that folks really have no control over.

All we can do is watch & listen to facts & see if we think things that caused the rise are being repaired or kicked

down the road.....Then act accordingly.

Edited January 16, 2012 by flying

[Naam]

The race to the bottom would involve higher values for gold, but where is the inlation to go with it? Don't forget how steep the decline in gold was i the early 80s, along with a stronger Dollar.

not only along with a stronger Dollar but also along with high inflation. but the reason why Gold was killed in the early 80s was the fact that U.S. Treasuries yielded up to 16%. who buys Gold when a triple A rated asset generates that kind of yield?

[waza]

I think the best the US economy can hope for is stagflation going forward. However, the US$ will continue to be protected by the major foriegn investors, EG: China, Japan and Russia. This combined with the comically inept financial management of the Thai economy by the present government will result in an exchange rate at $1US=30- 34 baht for most of the year. They ausie $ will get up to 35-36Baht at best this year.