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Iran halts oil exports to British, French firms


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By the way, if food prices are rising, is this likely to cause civil strife for the gov't?

Internally, what is the reaction to the sanctions and the effect it is having on everyday life?

Pointing fingers aside I tend to think the effect will be the same as any time sanctions such as these are used

to hurt an economy & people......Hatred will be directed against those who impose the sanctions.

Those hurt by them who have done nothing certifiably wrong only see this as another form of unprovoked attack.

The Kingdom of Cambodia considers oil imports from Iran.

Their opinion on sanction played a part in their rationale to do so.

Cambodia will not take into account the foreign policies of other countries toward Iran when considering investment in the Kingdom, Ek Tha said.

“We do not discriminate where our FDI comes from,” he said via phone, adding that the deepening of cooperation with Iran was strictly civilian, not military.

“Some Western countries put economic sanctions on [Cambodia] after we toppled the Pol Pot regime. We have learned some hard lessons about the damage of sanctions, so we will keep our economy open.”

http://www.phnompenhpost.com/index.php/2012013054208/Business/kingdom-considers-oil-imports-from-iran.html

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adding that the deepening of cooperation with Iran was strictly civilian, not military.

“Some Western countries put economic sanctions on [Cambodia] after we toppled the Pol Pot regime. We have learned some hard lessons about the damage of sanctions, so we will keep our economy open.”

Smart man...... Sadly not all know the difference between military/civilian....To some collateral damages are always negligible.

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I don't quite understand how it is that the US is procrastinating with regard to attacking a country that poses no threat to them.

Iran does pose a threat to the US. They claim to be well on the way to a missle that will reach the USA and they have threatened to cause disruptions to the oil supply which would affect the whole planet.

1. Iran wants to build a peace pipeline.

2. U.S. military seeks more powerful bomb against Iran

Iran repeatedly threatens to eliminate Israel, it routinely breeches the convention on protecting diplomats and uses terrorists as proxy for it's foreign policy. It buries it's nuclear technology deep underground and refuses access to the IAEA (They may get into Iran, but they get to see nothing). Only the most blinkered apologists could argue Iran is a peaceful victim.

Edit: As stated, the inspectors get in but they see nothing.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-17122738

The UN nuclear watchdog says Iran has stopped a team of inspectors from visiting a key military site.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) says no deal was been reached on inspecting the Parchin site, south of Tehran, despite "intensive efforts".

The inspectors had sought to clarify the "possible military dimensions" of Iran's nuclear programme.

Edited by Steely Dan
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By the way, if food prices are rising, is this likely to cause civil strife for the gov't?

Internally, what is the reaction to the sanctions and the effect it is having on everyday life?

Pointing fingers aside I tend to think the effect will be the same as any time sanctions such as these are used

to hurt an economy & people......Hatred will be directed against those who impose the sanctions.

Those hurt by them who have done nothing certifiably wrong only see this as another form of unprovoked attack.

On the other hand they may see sanctions as a by product of the insane regime which fixed the last election and has ruined Iran's economy and stunted it's development for decades, however some TV posters seem to be more sympathetic towards said regime than the Iranian people are.

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http://disasteremerg...nian-oil-to-eu/

Here is my speculation. Israel have lost patience with U.S procrastination over Iran and are going to take matters into their own hands. Obama is scheduled to meet Netanyahu on March 5th, which is well flagged. There are far too many so called false flags being called at present, but I suspect military action may take place before this date and the announcement of the meeting may be intended to fool Iran and perhaps stop them from cutting off oil to more E.U Countries in the short term, until they secure alternative supplies.

I don't quite understand how it is that the US is procrastinating with regard to attacking a country that poses no threat to them. I do understand why Israel wants to attack but for the US to risk its young to such a cause is really stupid IMO. Every key member of the US Military and Intelligence agencies have gone on record saying that it would be foolish to attack Iran now. That is not procrastination, that is why these people have the positions that they have. The names of these individuals are too numerous to list and all say pretty much the same thing. They start with the Chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff on down.

Let's just say that sanctions that really hurt Iran could have been applied sooner and not doing so could be viewed as procrastination. I'm also of the opinion that any military action now is that much more problematic than it would have been some time ago, before Iran started burying things deep underground. My perception is that in spite of the mounting complication of military action the U.S held Israel back from unilateral action probably due to the economic implications of said action. Again, my perception is the Israelis would view this as procrastination and any talks offered now by Iran would yet again be a cynical ploy to play for time.

The activity of oil embargoes to and from European nations do indeed provide clues as to what's going down.

Israeli officials, also including National Security Adviser Yaakov Amidror, Mossad chief Tamir Pardo, Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz and Military Intelligence head Aviv Kochavi, told Donilon that in order to avoid an Israeli attack on Iran, increased pressure and economic sanctions on Iran must intensify.

But the U.S.-led sanctions against Iran are already unprecedented in their scale and have already begun to cripple the economy, fuel inflation, interrupt trade flows, cut off supplies of food, and destabilize oil markets. Columbia University Professor Gary Sick has called this effort “the equivalent of a blockade. It’s an act of war.”

The question that comes to my mind is: How will we know when the sanctions have accomplished their intended purpose? Will the Iranians beg us to stop the sanctions? What can they do that they are not already doing?

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I don't quite understand how it is that the US is procrastinating with regard to attacking a country that poses no threat to them.

Iran does pose a threat to the US. They claim to be well on the way to a missle that will reach the USA and they have threatened to cause disruptions to the oil supply which would affect the whole planet.

Virtually every intelligence agency in the first world would disagree with you. So pardon me if I don't side with your point of view.

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By the way, if food prices are rising, is this likely to cause civil strife for the gov't?

Internally, what is the reaction to the sanctions and the effect it is having on everyday life?

Pointing fingers aside I tend to think the effect will be the same as any time sanctions such as these are used

to hurt an economy & people......Hatred will be directed against those who impose the sanctions.

Those hurt by them who have done nothing certifiably wrong only see this as another form of unprovoked attack.

On the other hand they may see sanctions as a by product of the insane regime which fixed the last election and has ruined Iran's economy and stunted it's development for decades, however some TV posters seem to be more sympathetic towards said regime than the Iranian people are.

Well, I guess it is the right of us blinkered apologists to side with whomever we choose based upon our own personal values. Many of us simply side with the experts which include the current and 2 past Mossad Chiefs, The US Secretary of Defense,The US CIA director, the US chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, etc............................ If the US president were to side with AIPAC instead of his own staff, that would spell the true beginning of the end. As if of course that end is not closer than we might think. Risking regional war, much less a global war is to me, insanity. These guys cannot be anti-semites so that particular argument is pretty much off the table.

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I don't quite understand how it is that the US is procrastinating with regard to attacking a country that poses no threat to them.

Iran does pose a threat to the US. They claim to be well on the way to a missle that will reach the USA and they have threatened to cause disruptions to the oil supply which would affect the whole planet.

1. Iran wants to build a peace pipeline.

2. U.S. military seeks more powerful bomb against Iran

Iran repeatedly threatens to eliminate Israel, it routinely breeches the convention on protecting diplomats and uses terrorists as proxy for it's foreign policy. It buries it's nuclear technology deep underground and refuses access to the IAEA (They may get into Iran, but they get to see nothing). Only the most blinkered apologists could argue Iran is a peaceful victim.

Edit: As stated, the inspectors get in but they see nothing.

http://www.bbc.co.uk...e-east-17122738

Iran doesn't threatens to eliminate Israel. Skip that nonsense.

They just say that a regime change in al-Quds would be not bad because that regime is outdated. Demands for a regime change in Tehran you can read all day in the Western media made by western politicians.

Iran never declared that they build bombs to attack Israel or have any other plans to start a war with them.

All the warmongering rhetoric comes from the other side, from the enemies of Iran. they build special bombs fro Iran, they have the plans to attack Iran.

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Aside from the US bashing which continues...

Forgive me for a small personal reflection. When we were evacuated from Iran in early 1979, the exchange rate was 70.25 Iranian Rials to 1 US$. The official rate today is 12,260 Iranian Rials to 1 US$.

That is the official rate with a black market rate much higher in Iran, rumored to be in the 22,000 to one range.

Let's give the Islamic regime blame/credit for some of this. Don't blame it all on sanctions (or the US).

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On the other hand they may see sanctions as a by product of the insane regime which fixed the last election and has ruined Iran's economy and stunted it's development for decades, however some TV posters seem to be more sympathetic towards said regime than the Iranian people are.

Iran made clear that the don't like the insane regime, that they support freedom loving people like they Palestinians and want to act peacefully and prefer trade over bullying and warmongering.

Ahmadinejad on record:

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has called on all nations across the globe to join hands to create a just world system and to establish lasting peace and security.

...

The Iranian president emphasized that Tehran wants to strengthen its ties with all countries and criticized any resort to military action to settle disputes.

Ahmadinejad said sowing tensions will not resolve any problem in the world, where “economic problems have imposed heavy pressure on the people in Europe and the United States.”

“Of course, the US government usually tends to solve its problems by creating tension, war and conflict, but today, these methods have lost their efficiency,” he pointed out.

“The world today more than tensions and conflicts is in need of camaraderie and understanding and all [people] need to enjoy equal rights,” he went on to say.

http://www.presstv.ir/detail/224237.html

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Aside from the US bashing which continues...

Actually all I have seen here is explanations as to why it should be fine for Iran to sell oil to others.....Since some old customers have threatened not to buy....

Free market right?

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Aside from the US bashing which continues...

Actually all I have seen here is explanations as to why it should be fine for Iran to sell oil to others.....Since some old customers have threatened not to buy....

Free market right?

Let me be clear. I don't give a hoot who Iran sells THEIR oil to.

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This topic is about sanctions and Iran selling or not selling their oil. It is not about US history, Americans needing to learn Spanish, the Chinese yuan, or any of the multitude of subjects which keep sprouting up here (or in most threads in World, for that matter.)

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NY Times has this to say;

Iran is deeply dependent for foreign currency on oil sales, which supply more than 50 per cent of the national budget and account for 80 per cent of exports. Iran produces about 3.5 million barrels a day and exports about 2.5 million, 70 per cent of that to Asia. The 27 nations of the EU are a big customer as a whole, representing about 18 per cent of Iran’s exports. But Britain and Germany only get about 1 per cent of their oil from Iran and France only about 3 per cent.

NYT also mentions Iran was trying to secure 3-5 year supply contracts with some EU countries. I expect that would be Germany. Interesting enough, Germany just signed a base and supply agreement with Canada which will be a return to Europe for Canada after its closing of its base in Lahr years ago. This suggests to me one thing: Some countries are getting ready for conflict.

A London-based newspaper claims Turkey and China are helping Iran to evade UN sanctions by providing Tehran with banking facilities to purchase necessary commodities through indirect means.

According to an article published by The Telegraph on Tuesday, Iran's central bank is using a number of financial institutions in China and Turkey to fund the purchase of vital goods, thus to blunt the impact of the Western sanctions on the country’s financial sector.

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Iran is the only country other than North Korea who signed an agreement not to develop nuclear weapons who is developing them anyway.

Innocent until Proven guilty

As for any country breaking treaties Start with the US then throw stones

The case has been proven. The Iranian defense witnesses were not credible. It's like asking Don Vito to give a character reference for a hit man. mfr_closed1.gif

Interesting that would make an Italian connection to a Mob hit and not a Jewish one. Perhaps the Italians are offended.

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NY Times has this to say;

Iran is deeply dependent for foreign currency on oil sales, which supply more than 50 per cent of the national budget and account for 80 per cent of exports. Iran produces about 3.5 million barrels a day and exports about 2.5 million, 70 per cent of that to Asia. The 27 nations of the EU are a big customer as a whole, representing about 18 per cent of Iran’s exports. But Britain and Germany only get about 1 per cent of their oil from Iran and France only about 3 per cent.

NYT also mentions Iran was trying to secure 3-5 year supply contracts with some EU countries. I expect that would be Germany. Interesting enough, Germany just signed a base and supply agreement with Canada which will be a return to Europe for Canada after its closing of its base in Lahr years ago. This suggests to me one thing: Some countries are getting ready for conflict.

A London-based newspaper claims Turkey and China are helping Iran to evade UN sanctions by providing Tehran with banking facilities to purchase necessary commodities through indirect means.

According to an article published by The Telegraph on Tuesday, Iran's central bank is using a number of financial institutions in China and Turkey to fund the purchase of vital goods, thus to blunt the impact of the Western sanctions on the country’s financial sector.

Anytime there are sanctions, there is an opportunity for money to be made. During the Iraq embargo, the trucks were lined up for 40 kilometers to get into Iraq and return to Turkey with as much fuel (I believe it was mostly Diesel) as they could carry.

The only silver lining I could see in this whole mess is if those pesky Somalian pirates would take up carting oil and leave the remaining vessels alone.

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You would no doubt during WWII have also argued in favour of U.S isolationism, however the truth is inescapable with Iran, just as it was with Nazi Germany that however they came into being they both pose a dire threat to world peace and only the most rabid moral relativist would argue the same about their enemies.

Kind of stretching the topic as usual eh SD?

I cannot help but notice as is your style....

To your OT question.............No never in favor of isolationism now or would have been then.

It is those that impose sanctions that are the isolationist.

The funny thing about your Iranian twist of "inescapable truth" is that is could more easily be applied to Israel & others who actually do threaten world peace TODAY

But of course you cannot see that....due to pom poms obscuring your view

Your view of sanctions reminds me of a UK headline "Fog in Channel - Europe Isolated."

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By the way, if food prices are rising, is this likely to cause civil strife for the gov't?

Internally, what is the reaction to the sanctions and the effect it is having on everyday life?

Pointing fingers aside I tend to think the effect will be the same as any time sanctions such as these are used

to hurt an economy & people......Hatred will be directed against those who impose the sanctions.

Those hurt by them who have done nothing certifiably wrong only see this as another form of unprovoked attack.

Do you really think that the people of Iran are so obtuse so as to not know WHY sanctions have been applied? To discern that Iran needs "peaceful" nuclear generated power like the Pope needs a hysterectomy?

And the growing number of youthful Iranians with access to outside opinions via the internet do not chafe under the social restrictions applied by their aging theocracy?

Do you really trust the statements of a government that denies the existence of both the Holocaust and homosexuality, and makes statements that seem to make a armageddon style final solution desirable?

BTW innocent until proven guilty is fine for you, it's not your country where the mushroom cloud will prove the guilt.

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Do you really think that the people of Iran are so obtuse so as to not know WHY sanctions have been applied?

BTW innocent until proven guilty is fine for you, it's not your country where the mushroom cloud will prove the guilt.

Let me get this straight.......Your putting Israels likely bombing of Iran on my shoulders? Because as always it is them that are making all the threats.

Oh wait your one of those who think Iran could nuke Israel? You really believe that?...A country that has not attacked another in over 200 years will suddenly go nuke a neighbor...un-provoked?.....Man turn off the TV...Think with your own mind...use some basic reason/ logic, or at least facts.

As for the Iranians not knowing why the sanctions are levied on them yet again..

No I am sure the Iranian people know why sanctions are being applied....They have had lots of practice for the same BS Non-Offense....

In 1992, Natanyahu claimed Iran would have nuclear weapons in 3-5 years. Shimon Peres, now Israel’s president, insisted Iran would have nukes by 1999.

In 1995, the New York Times claimed Iran was only 5 years from nuclear weapons. US Defense Secretary Don Rumsfeld claimed Iran was fielding a nuclear-armed ICBM that could hit the United States.

http://lewrockwell.c...argolis267.html

Edited by flying
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Do you really think that the people of Iran are so obtuse so as to not know WHY sanctions have been applied?

BTW innocent until proven guilty is fine for you, it's not your country where the mushroom cloud will prove the guilt.

Let me get this straight.......Your putting Israels likely bombing of Iran on my shoulders? Because as always it is them that are making all the threats.

Oh wait your one of those who think Iran could nuke Israel? You really believe that?...A country that has not attacked another in over 200 years will suddenly go nuke a neighbor...un-provoked?.....Man turn off the TV...Think with your own mind...use some basic reason/ logic, or at least facts.

As for the Iranians not knowing why the sanctions are levied on them yet again..

No I am sure the Iranian people know why sanctions are being applied....They have had lots of practice for the same BS Non-Offense....

In 1992, Natanyahu claimed Iran would have nuclear weapons in 3-5 years. Shimon Peres, now Israel’s president, insisted Iran would have nukes by 1999.

In 1995, the New York Times claimed Iran was only 5 years from nuclear weapons. US Defense Secretary Don Rumsfeld claimed Iran was fielding a nuclear-armed ICBM that could hit the United States.

http://lewrockwell.c...argolis267.html

" During 1987, Iran launched a number of Silkworm missiles from the Faw Peninsula vicinity striking the Liberian-flagged tanker Sungari and US flagged tanker Sea Isle City in October 1987[8] and 5 other missiles struck areas in Kuwait earlier in the year. In October 1987, Kuwait's Sea Island off shore oil terminal was hit by an Iranian Silkworm which was observed to have originated from the Faw peninsula. The attack prompted Kuwait to deploy a Hawk missile battery on Failaka Island to protect the terminal.[9] In December 1987, another Iranian Silkworm was fired at the terminal, but it struck a decoy barge instead. Kuwaiti military observers seeing that the missiles originated from the area and tracking them on radar along with US satellite imagery of the launch sites

Bloody short 200 years! I put nothing on your shoulders, I simply point out that in the internet age information is freely available, that some Iranians will know why sanctions are applied, are correctly lay the blame at the feet of their own governments actions.

As for whether the religious inspired hatred of Israel could lead to a nuclear attack, I have very little doubt.Tthe current Iranian government with a nuke has as much likelihood of disaster as a baby playing with a bottle of petrol and a box of matches.

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...

Iran made clear that the don't like the insane regime, that they support freedom loving people like they Palestinians and want to act peacefully and prefer trade over bullying and warmongering.

...

Tis true, the majority of the Iranian people do like their own regime, "insane" as you put it, quite apt. We can certainly hope they muster the courage to do something about it. However, if they see what is happening in Syria and what happened to their own protesters under the totalitarian thumb, you can't blame them for wanting to keep living. Edited by Jingthing
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These articles just out today. Iran doesn't seem quite as user friendly as some would have us believe.

__________________________________________________________________

UN nuke expert: no 'way forward' with Iran

VIENNA (AP) -- A top U.N. nuclear official says his team could "could not find a way forward" in attempts to persuade Iran to talk about suspected secret work on atomic arms.

Herman Nackaerts of the International Atomic Energy Agency says the talks in Tehran were inconclusive, although his mission approached the talks "in a constructive spirit."

Nackaerts spoke to reporters at Vienna airport Wednesday shortly after returning from the Iranian capital.

http://hosted.ap.org...-02-21-19-34-08

...and...

Iran threatens pre-emptive action amid nuclear tensions

TEHRAN, Iran — Iran would take pre-emptive action against its enemies if it felt its national interests were endangered, the deputy head of the Islamic Republic's armed forces was quoted by a semi-official news agency as saying Tuesday.

"Our strategy now is that if we feel our enemies want to endanger Iran's national interests, and want to decide to do that, we will act without waiting for their actions,'' Mohammad Hejazi told the Fars news agency, NBC News reported.

Iran announced air defense war games to practice protecting nuclear and other sensitive sites, the latest in a series of military maneuvers viewed as a message to the West that Iran is prepared both to defend itself against an armed strike and to retaliate.

http://www.msnbc.msn...a/#.T0S_nIfxpDQ

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Iran is trying to up the fear factor of what it will mean if Israel bombs their nuclear development sites. Deterrence. That may have been the "rationale" over the bomb thing against Israel in Thailand, Georgia, and India. (Of course, overall that was such a flop it isn't shocking Iran is running away from taking credit.) It sure sounds scary. Not convinced Israel is all that scared though.

Edited by Jingthing
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Forgive my tangent, but I don't understand one aspect of the crisis. North America is awash in oil and natural gas. Since Obama has come to office, US oil & gas production has shot up. US oil imports are at their lowest point in years. Russian energy production has increased. China's energy production has increased. New oil is gushing out of Mexico and the Norwegians have announced new oil finds. The EU and in particular Italy now has unfettered access to Libyan quality grade oil. And yet, the energy prices increase, particularly the cost of gasoline. It seems to me that despite the impact that this dispute has on Iran supplying energy, it just doesn't make sense.

Ok, so Iran would o longer sell to the EU. Fine, then that means the oil can be sold to India and China. True, the Indians and Chinese have been demanding deep discounts, but the Iranian oil will eventually find its way to the spot market via Turkey or asian energy brokers. Despite the sanctions, I would expect the oil to still enter the market albeit indirectly. If the Chinese and Indians end up buying more of the Iranian oil, then that means they buy less from other sources, meaning that those sources would be sold to the EU.

I think the only people that will profit will be the big oil producing countries like OPEC, Russia, Mexico, Norway,Nigeria, Venezuala, Canada etc. because their prices will increase. Countries with secure energy supplies, despite some grumbling shouldn't be bothered. i.e. the USA with the most secure energy supply in the world has no need to worry. The oil brokers and investment funds are going to make a killing on this "crisis".

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We have posters who are probably quite knowledgeable on the situation. I believe there are restrictions on US $ transactions with Iran? This no doubt has an effect on the smooth transfer of finances, which upsets the dealings.

Also, when investors get nervous, prices go up.

Finally, not all oil is the same and some refineries are not equipped to handle just any old grade oil. That means some shifts in supplies.

And since when did the big boys not take advantage of any situation to gouge a little more cash out of everyone?

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Forgive my tangent, but I don't understand one aspect of the crisis. North America is awash in oil and natural gas. Since Obama has come to office, US oil & gas production has shot up. US oil imports are at their lowest point in years. Russian energy production has increased. China's energy production has increased. New oil is gushing out of Mexico and the Norwegians have announced new oil finds. The EU and in particular Italy now has unfettered access to Libyan quality grade oil. And yet, the energy prices increase, particularly the cost of gasoline. It seems to me that despite the impact that this dispute has on Iran supplying energy, it just doesn't make sense.

Ok, so Iran would o longer sell to the EU. Fine, then that means the oil can be sold to India and China. True, the Indians and Chinese have been demanding deep discounts, but the Iranian oil will eventually find its way to the spot market via Turkey or asian energy brokers. Despite the sanctions, I would expect the oil to still enter the market albeit indirectly. If the Chinese and Indians end up buying more of the Iranian oil, then that means they buy less from other sources, meaning that those sources would be sold to the EU.

I think the only people that will profit will be the big oil producing countries like OPEC, Russia, Mexico, Norway,Nigeria, Venezuala, Canada etc. because their prices will increase. Countries with secure energy supplies, despite some grumbling shouldn't be bothered. i.e. the USA with the most secure energy supply in the world has no need to worry. The oil brokers and investment funds are going to make a killing on this "crisis".

You can add this to the conundrum of the Baltic dry index flashing red danger signs for the world economy. Wars in the short term tend to be inflationary as governments print money to pay for the logistics of them, which tends to weaken currencies - this could have some bearing on the oil price in dollars. Furthermore markets tend to reflect the perceived state of things several months into the future, so the benign oil supply picture you see now may not be what's factored in by the markets. Finally, markets dislike uncertainty more than just about anything else and hence tend to over compensate in an uncertain environment.

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Forgive my tangent, but I don't understand one aspect of the crisis. North America is awash in oil and natural gas. Since Obama has come to office, US oil & gas production has shot up. US oil imports are at their lowest point in years.

May I address only this part of your post?

While you are correct the US is awash in oil and gas and production is up, it is not because of anything the Obama administration has done. Much of the oil is coming from wells off-shore that were issued permits under Clinton and Bush and are still producing. the major jump in production is coming from North Dakota, where they are drilling and extracting oil from PRIVATE land. The government issues very few permits to drill on GOVERNMENT land but they haven't figured out a way to stop drilling on private land.

The moratorium on off-shore deep water drilling is still effectively in place. The current administration has made safety and environment requirements so stringent that few companies can clear the red tape hurdle to get permits.

The current administration wants only green energy, regardless of the cost to taxpayers

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