Thailand Looks Beyond The US Alliance

[webfact]

REGIONAL PERSPECTIVE

Thailand looks beyond the US alliance

Kavi Chongkittavorn

The Nation

BANGKOK: -- Thailand is losing out big time in the fast shifting strategic landscape due to its leaders' inability to break away from the vicious political cycle at home as other countries in the region gain higher levels playing fields and strategic values. The lack of foreign policy focus of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra's administration - trapped in her charm syndrome - further erodes the country's competitive prepositioning. In the past seven months, Thailand was also conspicuously absent from international scene but was compensated by the wide publicity of photogenic and well-dressed Thai leader. Fortunately, in past weeks, the government has begun to pay attention to the future relations with the two superpowers - US and China.

In agreement

At last week's closed door brain storming on Thailand's strategies toward the US and China in the next five years (2012-2017) at an undisclosed location, three dozen representatives from concerned agencies (Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ministry of Defence, Ministry of Commerce, et al), private sector and academia agreed unanimously that Thailand must look beyond the US alliance and strengthen engagement with China as they lamented the uselessness of their strategic ties, which thrived during the Cold War.

Indeed, today their relations have more to do with less-strategic matters and mostly on ad-hoc basis such as disaster rescue and relief operations. Reactions from the participants were mixed when it came to the future US policy and desire towards Thailand.

Thailand needs the US

It is obvious that Thailand needs the US both for economic and security reasons but they cannot say with any certainty that the US needs its benign ally. Some even questioned the US sincerity towards Thailand which no longer occupies the hearts and minds of the US policy makers. Some of them even proposed laws to punish Thailand over the years. Indonesia, Vietnam and Myanmar are their new focus in Washington. In contrast, without any significant branding of the cooperation with the US, Singapore has shown how a small country can maximize its collaboration and fill its future strategic needs with the superpower. As always, the Thai-US relations look very good on papers dwelling on the past achievements as they do not have shared strategic objectives to be pursued in the future. In the case of China, the discussion was never boring as participants always had something to say what both countries could do together.

There was a strong consensus Thailand would be much closer to the middle kingdom than the US in the short and long terms. It is interesting to note that while they all appreciated the rise of China and its growing influence in the region, they recommended strongly that Thailand need to stand firm when negotiating with China to preserve national interest.

Most importantly, they must not afraid to turn down proposals that are imperil to the country's collective well-beings. In the next five years, China's economic and political clouts in the continental Southeast Asia would be greatly augment with wide-spread transportation connectivity linking all trading hubs in Southern China to Laos, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore. Since the investment will mainly come from China's pockets, they felt that Beijing was dictating the terms of reference to its favor.

Therefore, Thailand and neighboring countries within the network, especially Laos, must resist China-only concessions proposed on various infrastructure projects. By 2017, China plans to build a combined of nearly 1,000-kilometre of high-speed railways in the two countries. Economists and trade officials had strong warnings that one-side privilege linking to multi-billion development packages would backfire and hurt China's reputation in the long term.

Still groping

Next year Thailand and the US will commemorate the 180th anniversary of their diplomatic relations. They are still groping for something worthwhile to celebrate on.

As one of the region's oldest US ally, the Thai security officials felt strongly that Thailand failed to reap benefits proportionate to its strategic values, much heralded by countries that have no ally status.

After long delay, the two countries have finally scheduled a strategic meeting at the ministerial level in Washington DC on 15 June to savage their relations and to work out a new strategic framework that would go beyond the Thai-US alliance under the 1962 Thanat-Rush agreement. With the US increased presence and renewed attention toward Southeast Asia, Thailand hopes it can reinvigorate ties with the US and add additional strategic values. With common approaches, the Thai-US profile could be raised further in the region.

To do so, the overall Thai-US friendship must be on a firmer ground without nagging issues that sought to undermine their relations. For instance, the quarrel over the issue related to freedom of expression and diplomatic mud-slinging over recent terrorism warning have all but undermined their traditional and longstanding trust and confidence. In fact, such squabbling among allies should be considered normal in the past. However, the Thai establishment these days has become less tolerant because other major powers such as China and India are more understandable and sympathetic to them than ever before. Back in the late 1990's, when the country faced financial crisis, the US stood idle by. This scare looms large in the background. Whenever it came up, it turned the US into a hypocrite. At this juncture, Thailand needs all sorts of moral supports from abroad and the US should be the main driving force.

Open secret

Indeed, Thailand's relations with other major powers have all but improved. It is an open secret that they have been more willing to accommodate with Thailand's political shenanigans which miraculously further deepen confidence and trust.

Toward the end of brain-storming session, it is clear that there is an urgent need for Thailand to add strategic dynamism to its stalled relations with the US while trying to vigorously manage China's more direct and assertive multidimensional overtures, especially in sensitive areas of security cooperation. The country's famous blending with the wind diplomatic practice must be adjusted to fit in new global environment.

These days, big powers give value and response to clear-cut policies even those they disagreed rather than vague commitments which could be pleasing to the ears - the quality Thailand excels.

-- The Nation 2012-04-02

[Buchholz]

The lack of foreign policy focus of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra's administration

Yingluck's and Thaksin's cousin Surapong was not selected for the Foreign Minister position based on his experience in foreign policy. He has none.

.

.

[AZBill]

I can tell you the US government's view of Thailand would change if they made positive steps to move to a true democracy instead of the sham they have now. US Officials I personally know have said that working with Thailand has always been difficult because of their outdated view of the world and unwillingness to accept globalization as the new world order. There is also a general distrust of Thai government officials who too often have their own hidden self-profitting agenda that gets put before any concern for the country or foreign relations.

[RussellBellagrego]

Here , here, I have never seen a more bloviating outpouring pile of gobiligook than this presented by the master of nonsensical , Khun Kavi.

As an American and a lover of Thailand , it disgust me to read of all the negativity presented by him as facts. The average Thai citizen would have absolutely no idea <deleted> he is talking about.

[noitom]

Hard to believe that there are so many basic English errors in this editorial.

[Jimmu]

Perhaps it could be savaged. Oops, I mean salvaged!

Well, both really.

[CalgaryII]

There seems to be a big disconnect here, between the bold-print initial paragraph, and the rest of the article. The initial paragraph is simply a 'dump' on Ms. Y..... It talks about a vicious political cycle, which is the ongoing mantra of the Opposition. Losing an election does not equate to vicious politics.........Who says there is a 'lack of foreign policy focus'. It is stated as fact, when all it is is Oppositional stuff........Then suggesting political vacuousness on the part of the well-dressed and charming Ms. Y, when that couldn't be further from the truth. The way she has managed all the powerful opposition elements while retaining the support of her constituency is remarkable.

The rest of the article tries to get at some significant issues, vis-a-vis Thai relations with the USA and China. It makes some excellent points to consider in this regard. I think Thailand should leverage its strategic value to both countries to the max., without being swallowed up by China.

With respect to the UDD/Red Shirts, I keep hearing an anti-American vein emenating from their websites, to the point that I am suspicious they are infiltrated by Chinese propagandists. Only speculation on my part, but some of the anti-Americanism I hear is ridiculous. There is an agreement we don't talk about this, as I am at polar opposites from the Red Shirts around here, in this regard.

Edited April 2, 2012 by CalgaryII

[phiphidon]

The lack of foreign policy focus of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra's administration

Yingluck's and Thaksin's cousin Surapong was not selected for the Foreign Minister position based on his experience in foreign policy. He has none.

.

.

Initially they were concentrating their efforts nearer home. For example Thailand has avoided going to war with Cambodia over a Hindu temple - the least said the better about the former Foreign Minister, Kasits', involvement in Thai Cambodian relations. They also haven't managed to have the PM's assistant dispatched to encroach upon Cambodian land and get himself arrested.

A recent trip to South Korea sealed a deal to raise bilateral trade in the next 5 years to 30 billion US dollars. An MoU on military cooperation was also signed.

The upcoming trip to China will include the signing of many agreements including MoU's on

on economic cooperation for five years and China's purchase of Thai agricultural products such as rice, rubber, and corn, not to mention talks about high speed train lines.

Bit of a failure really, that Thai Foreign Policy ...............................

[Buchholz]

The lack of foreign policy focus of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra's administration

Yingluck's and Thaksin's cousin Surapong was not selected for the Foreign Minister position based on his experience in foreign policy. He has none.

Initially they were concentrating their efforts nearer home.

Initially, the trio were concerned with Surapong obtaining a Japanese visa at Thaksin's request.

That was followed by passport re-issuance including complimentary overseas attentive personal delivery service by the Foreign Minister cousin.

For example Thailand has avoided going to war with Cambodia over a Hindu temple

Much easier to work that pro-wrestling-like angle when one of the trio is an Economic Adviser to Cambodia and with huge business transactions at stake.

.

Edited April 2, 2012 by Buchholz

[bigbamboo]

The trouble at the temple did seem to work out extraordinarily well for PTP, didn't it!

[wintermute]

Before Thailand expands international government relations maybe they should look into how fast they are burning bridges in international business. The recent debacle with the flooding and Japanese corporations is going to look real bad.

[phiphidon]

Initially, the trio were concerned with Surapong obtaining a Japanese visa at Thaksin's request.

That was followed by passport re-issuance including complimentary overseas attentive personal delivery service by the Foreign Minister cousin.

For example Thailand has avoided going to war with Cambodia over a Hindu temple

Much easier to work that pro-wrestling-like angle when one of the trio is an Economic Adviser to Cambodia and with huge business transactions at stake.

.

So you agree with me that the agreements I outlined in my previous post represent a successful Foreign Policy.

Oh and to be honest it is easier to work with countries when your Foreign Minister doesn't confuse diplomacy with calling the MP of that country a "gangster" or telling the the German government it cannot seize the Crown Princes plane when they had done nothing of the sort.

[OzMick]

Isn't Yingluk signing a lease next month?

[Lifer]

Nonsense as usual! No wonder the world is so screwed up!

[Buchholz]

Initially, the trio were concerned with Surapong obtaining a Japanese visa at Thaksin's request.

That was followed by passport re-issuance including complimentary overseas attentive personal delivery service by the Foreign Minister cousin.

For example Thailand has avoided going to war with Cambodia over a Hindu temple

Much easier to work that pro-wrestling-like angle when one of the trio is an Economic Adviser to Cambodia and with huge business transactions at stake.

.

So you agree with me that the agreements I outlined in my previous post represent a successful Foreign Policy.

No.

Do you agree that the actions of the Foreign Minister outlined above represent the self-serving nepotistic manner that he was selected by his cousins for the position characterize some of what is wrong with the Thaksin, ver. 4.0?

That this clown of a FM, whether it's meeting with his fugitive cousin and Hun Sen

or utilizing his cousin's appearance on the campaign trail

is a joke that even he and Yingluck recognize.

On the interviewer's remark that Foreign Minister Surapong Towichukchaikul was fast becoming the most controversial member of her Cabinet, Yingluck said: "I'd like the public not to look at his face or his past."

http://www.nationmul...n-30162970.html

Surapong was widely criticised for serving Thaksin more than the country.

"I know it is said I'm the worst minister of Thailand but that reputation might be good for me, as it can't get any worse"

[geriatrickid]

The cooling of relations between the USA and Thailand came to head with the illegal military coup. The USA had to adopt a policy consistent with its positions in respect to other coups and that meant no public support for the military junta, even if the prevailing sentiment was who gives a <deleted> as long as US interests are not harmed.. Mr. Abhisit was never viewed as a legitimate PM by the west because of the manner in which he came to power. And if people recall, the foreign policy statements in respect to holding immediate elections were hardly indications of a robust confidence in Thailand.

Thailand needs the USA. It also needs the west. Look at the export/import numbers. Where are Thailand's biggest export markets? The USA and Japan are significantly larger than the Chinese export market. However, China is a major import source and this isn't good for the balance of trade. To protect itself, Thailand needs to offset that negative balance. China knows it too. That's why China is open to innovative financing of projects that will purchase chinese products.

[metisdead]

Nonsense troll posts have been removed as well as the replies.

[hellodolly]

The cooling of relations between the USA and Thailand came to head with the illegal military coup. The USA had to adopt a policy consistent with its positions in respect to other coups and that meant no public support for the military junta, even if the prevailing sentiment was who gives a <deleted> as long as US interests are not harmed.. Mr. Abhisit was never viewed as a legitimate PM by the west because of the manner in which he came to power. And if people recall, the foreign policy statements in respect to holding immediate elections were hardly indications of a robust confidence in Thailand.

Thailand needs the USA. It also needs the west. Look at the export/import numbers. Where are Thailand's biggest export markets? The USA and Japan are significantly larger than the Chinese export market. However, China is a major import source and this isn't good for the balance of trade. To protect itself, Thailand needs to offset that negative balance. China knows it too. That's why China is open to innovative financing of projects that will purchase chinese products.

The cooling of relations between the USA and Thailand came to head with the illegal military coup. The USA had to adopt a policy consistent with its positions in respect to other coups and that meant no public support for the military junta, even if the prevailing sentiment was who gives a <deleted> as long as US interests are not harmed.. Mr. Abhisit was never viewed as a legitimate PM by the west because of the manner in which he came to power. And if people recall, the foreign policy statements in respect to holding immediate elections were hardly indications of a robust confidence in Thailand.

Thailand needs the USA. It also needs the west. Look at the export/import numbers. Where are Thailand's biggest export markets? The USA and Japan are significantly larger than the Chinese export market. However, China is a major import source and this isn't good for the balance of trade. To protect itself, Thailand needs to offset that negative balance. China knows it too. That's why China is open to innovative financing of projects that will purchase chinese products.

Maybe you were asleep but did the US not just get done with supporting a coup in Libia and did they not go into Iraq and do it for the people.

What was wrong with the way Abhist was elected it was the same method as his two predecessor government after the coup. Did the states object to those two governments?

[phiphidon]

Before Thailand expands international government relations maybe they should look into how fast they are burning bridges in international business. The recent debacle with the flooding and Japanese corporations is going to look real bad.

Honda doesn't seem to think so.

[phiphidon]

Snip all unnecessary guff and leave the question:

Do you agree that the actions of the Foreign Minister outlined above represent the self-serving nepotistic manner that he was selected by his cousins for the position characterize some of what is wrong with the Thaksin, ver. 4.0?

So you don't agree that the Foreign Office have been successful. Fair enough, just what is your criteria for success?

In response to your question - it really is not of any interest to me as long as he brings business into the country and arranges bilateral trade whilst not starting a war at any time with border countries, (or any countries come to that).

He and all the Foreign Office Department seems to have done that successfully so the question of whether he is the Shiniwatras cousin or not matters not a jot. If you see it as a tool to bash the government with, feel free.

Oh and posting images from your vast collection does not add any "gravitas" to your jottings.

[geriatrickid]

The cooling of relations between the USA and Thailand came to head with the illegal military coup. The USA had to adopt a policy consistent with its positions in respect to other coups and that meant no public support for the military junta, even if the prevailing sentiment was who gives a <deleted> as long as US interests are not harmed.. Mr. Abhisit was never viewed as a legitimate PM by the west because of the manner in which he came to power. And if people recall, the foreign policy statements in respect to holding immediate elections were hardly indications of a robust confidence in Thailand.

Thailand needs the USA. It also needs the west. Look at the export/import numbers. Where are Thailand's biggest export markets? The USA and Japan are significantly larger than the Chinese export market. However, China is a major import source and this isn't good for the balance of trade. To protect itself, Thailand needs to offset that negative balance. China knows it too. That's why China is open to innovative financing of projects that will purchase chinese products.

Maybe you were asleep but did the US not just get done with supporting a coup in Libia and did they not go into Iraq and do it for the people.

What was wrong with the way Abhist was elected it was the same method as his two predecessor government after the coup. Did the states object to those two governments?

Are you serious?The US was a reluctant participant in Libya and there was a UN mandate. There were completely different reasons for Iraq and it was a war. The USA had a stake in the outcome of these conflicts. The USA's sole interest in Thailand was peace and stability and the well being of its citizens and investments in Thailand. The interest in Thailand was no different than those of EU nations or Japan.

2 PPP governments were in power for 233 and 75 days successively and were the result of an existing popular mandate and a constitutional court ruling. The period in office was one of unrest, The next PPP PM was in office as a caretaker on Royal Command. Nevertheless, the international perception was that they were legitimate governments of a country in transition. The Democrats came to power after the PPP MPs were removed from office. There was no popular mandate. Still, foreign governments accepted the new government on the basis of its statements that it move to elections quickly. The fact of the matter is that had the PPP MPs not been removed from office, Abhisit would not have become PM. I am not going to argue the legitimacy of the removal, as it was technically legal, although considered draconian in the number of barrings. Mr, Abhisit was able to take advantage of those barrings to become PM without a new election. The correct move of a new government would then be to call an election to obtain a mandate from the electorate. The foreign concerns arose when Abhisit dithered on calling an election. It also reached a head during the Bangkok protests. Mr. Abhisit was never perceived as a legitimately elected PM. His party never received a mandate to govern. Had the democrats gone to the polls within a year and then won the election, there would be no argument, but they did not because they knew they could not win.

[geriatrickid]

Before Thailand expands international government relations maybe they should look into how fast they are burning bridges in international business. The recent debacle with the flooding and Japanese corporations is going to look real bad.

Honda doesn't seem to think so.

Not just Honda. As one of the largest investors in Thailand, Japanese companies cannot just close shop. They have invested billions in the infrastructure and training of workers. They also have a sales market to protect. If Japanese manufacturers pulled out they would lose the tariff benefits that attach to products manufactured and sold in Thailand.

[BigJohnnyBKK]

The cooling of relations between the USA and Thailand came to head with the illegal military coup.

Mr. Abhisit was never viewed as a legitimate PM by the west because of the manner in which he came to power.

Mr. Abhisit was never perceived as a legitimately elected PM. His party never received a mandate to govern.

Excellent points. Can't believe these yellow try to compare the coup against Thaksin to the Arab spring, positively Orwellian.

[allan michaud]

Here , here, I have never seen a more bloviating outpouring pile of gobiligook than this presented by the master of nonsensical , Khun Kavi.

As an American and a lover of Thailand , it disgust me to read of all the negativity presented by him as facts. The average Thai citizen would have absolutely no idea <deleted> he is talking about.

Neither does he

[mayday49]

Kavi C. sounds like he had to change the BaBy diaper agin......!

[OzMick]

The cooling of relations between the USA and Thailand came to head with the illegal military coup.

Mr. Abhisit was never viewed as a legitimate PM by the west because of the manner in which he came to power.

Mr. Abhisit was never perceived as a legitimately elected PM. His party never received a mandate to govern.

Excellent points. Can't believe these yellow try to compare the coup against Thaksin to the Arab spring, positively Orwellian.

In another thread, Nick Nostitz compared the 2010 red uprising to the same ME events. Which is the sillier?

[anterian]

Thailand is small fry on the global scale, as a market 60 millions it is minuscule, as a work force it is underskilled, as an investment it is politically unstable and environmentally risky. Its main advantage, dare I say it, is as a hub for southeast Asia. Unfortunately it is unable to take advantage of this, corruption combined with Xenophobia, not to mention airport chaos, renders such a possibility impossible.

[nicknostitz]

In another thread, Nick Nostitz compared the 2010 red uprising to the same ME events. Which is the sillier?

I didn't.

I only pointed out that, responding to your silly remark that "most of the world" would not accept armed protesters, that it indeed does at times for various reasons which are generally beyond the simplistic good vs. evil analysis (which though always seem to work when trying to make uncomfortable military engagements popular).

I am well aware that there are a few significant differences in the nature of the respective socio-political conflicts, and would suggest, when analysing the particular situation in Thailand, to look for parrallels in the German and Austro/Hungarian history approximately 100 and something years back as these two empires had somewhat similar systhematical problems then as Thailand has today.

[whybother]

With respect to the UDD/Red Shirts, I keep hearing an anti-American vein emenating from their websites, to the point that I am suspicious they are infiltrated by Chinese propagandists. Only speculation on my part, but some of the anti-Americanism I hear is ridiculous. There is an agreement we don't talk about this, as I am at polar opposites from the Red Shirts around here, in this regard.

Where's that tin foil hat?

[OZEMADE]

Before Thailand expands international government relations maybe they should look into how fast they are burning bridges in international business. The recent debacle with the flooding and Japanese corporations is going to look real bad.

Honda doesn't seem to think so.

Not just Honda. As one of the largest investors in Thailand, Japanese companies cannot just close shop. They have invested billions in the infrastructure and training of workers. They also have a sales market to protect. If Japanese manufacturers pulled out they would lose the tariff benefits that attach to products manufactured and sold in Thailand.

Also MINIBEAR a Japanese company that make all sorts of electrical components, they have some 20,000+ people working for them 24 Hrs a day all over Thailand. They were also flooded on 3 occasions prior to the last big flood.

They are going no where.