The Next Political Storm Is Only Just Heating Up: Thai Opinion

[webfact]

EDITORIAL

The next political storm is only just heating up

The Nation

BANGKOK: -- Charter amendment that includes political amnesty for certain figures could be the spark for a new round of violence later this year or early next

Some political analysts have predicted that April will be the hottest month politically. After the first 10 days of the month, all the signs confirm that things will be heating up. A glance at the political calendar, however, shows that this month may be just a prelude to greater tension to come, and the real thrills may happen in the latter half of the year or early 2013.

The House debate on the "reconciliation" research of the King Prajadhipok's Institute (KPI) has passed. There is no news on the "political polarity" front. It is very clear that Thai politics remains deeply divided and any misstep by either side could trigger a new round of violent turmoil.

The House of Representatives' clumsy handling of the KPI research has come to an awkward end, or break, to be exact. But another potentially explosive issue is always on tap. The charter amendment bill is the next in line where political anxiety is concerned. The bill is expected to clear Parliament at the end of this month, or early next month at the latest. After that, a 90-day time frame will follow for the Constitution Drafting Assembly (CDA) to be set up. The election of CDA members may turn into an exciting spectacle, as many candidates are likely to be nominees of political parties. The contest for CDA seats may be fierce, but if we are lucky, it should pass without serious incident.

If there's no further change to the charter amendment bill, the CDA will have about 180 days to complete its task. The most crucial political period of the year, therefore, will be somewhere within those 180 days. In other words, Thai people should fasten their seat belts in the second half of the year, or after the CDA starts working.

The most important thing to watch is what the CDA will do with Article 309 of the current Constitution. The said article protects the legal consequences of the 2006 coup, and the CDA will be torn between doing away with the article or keeping it in the new Constitution. Either way, the political consequences of the CDA's final decision on this issue will be unpredictable.

Last week's debate in the House of Representatives on the KPI research is directly related to Article 309. The government favours a blanket political amnesty, which will be almost impossible if Article 309 is maintained. The opposition put up strong resistance against any such amnesty, warning that there will be new political turmoil if Thaksin Shinawatra is whitewashed. The warning has been echoed by the results of an opinion poll, in which a clear majority of people surveyed voiced concern that there would be fresh violence if Thaksin is absolved.

The volatility in the House when it addressed the KPI research foretells a dilemma that the CDA will face. The showdown between the ruling Pheu Thai Party and the Democrats is also a good measure of how potentially explosive the amnesty issue is. And it is this particular issue of amnesty that will make political parties try to fill the CDA with their nominees.

Whether it is for or against amnesty, the draft of the new Constitution will be put to the test of a public referendum early next year. Pre-referendum campaigns by both sides will further raise the political temperature.

To sum it up, this month of April may be very hot politically, but it might just be a nice breeze compared to what is likely to come later. When the Abhisit government was in power, it was the administration's military "back-up" that caused animosity that spilled over onto the streets in a bloody manner. With former prime minister Abhisit Vejjajiva gone and Yingluck Shinawatra in his place, it's the proposed "amnesty" for her brother that is threatening to spark a new round of violence.

The politicians and who's who on both sides are claiming or showing that they are trying to end this cycle of torment. The big irony is that the more they purportedly try, the more stuck in it we seem to be.

-- The Nation 2012-04-10

[CalgaryII]

"The most important thing to watch is what the CDA will do with Article 309 of the current Constitution. The said article protects the legal consequences of the 2006 coup, and the CDA will be torn between doing away with the article or keeping it in the new Constitution.

Regarding the legal consequences of the coup, who in their right mind would seek to protect them. The majority elected Government has made it clear how untenable that is, as it is in any country where an election rectify's illegal coups. They summed up their position as follows, and no minority political group has the popular mandate to self-servingly prevent it:

"....the constitution is undemocratic as it resulted from the 2006 military coup"

The opposition put up strong resistance against any such amnesty, warning that there will be new political turmoil if Thaksin Shinawatra is whitewashed. The warning has been echoed by the results of an opinion poll, in which a clear majority of people surveyed voiced concern that there would be fresh violence if Thaksin is absolved.

The unidentified opinion poll was most likely one conducted by those who share the Oppositions's anti-Thaksin agenda, and used a researchy type veneer to advance this agenda, Something I have previously defined as "agenda laundering". To quote one of their own research instruments to suggest popular support for their position is a reach. The same as if the PTP used one of their researchy type polls discussed here yesterday, as being representative of the public at large. Besides, amnesty is not applicable to someone affected by coupist machinations, as such judgments have no validity. Nitirat proposals spoke to this very forcefully and is supported by the electoral majority.

Edited April 10, 2012 by CalgaryII

[sparebox2]

PAD is brewing up.

Next time it won't be just taking the Airports, but something more that important and meaningful to Thai people.

[Ijustwannateach]

I don't care which side does what next. I'm hoping for another flood if that's the best Thai 'politicians' can do with a normal year.

[Payboy]

PAD is brewing up.

Next time it won't be just taking the Airports, but something more that important and meaningful to Thai people.

Their iPhones?

[FangFerang]

PAD is brewing up.

Next time it won't be just taking the Airports, but something more that important and meaningful to Thai people.

I hope not.

[donkeykong]

You just cannot make up this stuff.

Very lucky country - friendly people, great location, fantastic weather, democratic (?) when compared to all it's neighbors - and attracts millions of international visitors.

Yet they persist with this sideshow soap opera - like watching a Punch n Judy show.

Sad.

[h90]

"The most important thing to watch is what the CDA will do with Article 309 of the current Constitution. The said article protects the legal consequences of the 2006 coup, and the CDA will be torn between doing away with the article or keeping it in the new Constitution.

Regarding the legal consequences of the coup, who in their right mind would seek to protect them. The majority elected Government has made it clear how untenable that is, as it is in any country where an election rectify's illegal coups. They summed up their position as follows, and no minority political group has the popular mandate to self-servingly prevent it:

"....the constitution is undemocratic as it resulted from the 2006 military coup"

The opposition put up strong resistance against any such amnesty, warning that there will be new political turmoil if Thaksin Shinawatra is whitewashed. The warning has been echoed by the results of an opinion poll, in which a clear majority of people surveyed voiced concern that there would be fresh violence if Thaksin is absolved.

The unidentified opinion poll was most likely one conducted by those who share the Oppositions's anti-Thaksin agenda, and used a researchy type veneer to advance this agenda, Something I have previously defined as "agenda laundering". To quote one of their own research instruments to suggest popular support for their position is a reach. The same as if the PTP used one of their researchy type polls discussed here yesterday, as being representative of the public at large. Besides, amnesty is not applicable to someone affected by coupist machinations, as such judgments have no validity. Nitirat proposals spoke to this very forcefully and is supported by the electoral majority.

This constitution was voted for in a public referendum. Different than the 1997 constitution.

[Skywalker69]

Thanks to the "divider in Dubai.

[allan michaud]

PAD is brewing up.

Next time it won't be just taking the Airports, but something more that important and meaningful to Thai people.

Som tam stalls????

[bigbamboo]

<deleted>........ why can't the politicians elected to work on behalf of the people start doing just that instead of playing their self centred political games.

[ramrod711]

"The most important thing to watch is what the CDA will do with Article 309 of the current Constitution. The said article protects the legal consequences of the 2006 coup, and the CDA will be torn between doing away with the article or keeping it in the new Constitution.

Regarding the legal consequences of the coup, who in their right mind would seek to protect them. The majority elected Government has made it clear how untenable that is, as it is in any country where an election rectify's illegal coups. They summed up their position as follows, and no minority political group has the popular mandate to self-servingly prevent it:

"....the constitution is undemocratic as it resulted from the 2006 military coup"

The opposition put up strong resistance against any such amnesty, warning that there will be new political turmoil if Thaksin Shinawatra is whitewashed. The warning has been echoed by the results of an opinion poll, in which a clear majority of people surveyed voiced concern that there would be fresh violence if Thaksin is absolved.

The unidentified opinion poll was most likely one conducted by those who share the Oppositions's anti-Thaksin agenda, and used a researchy type veneer to advance this agenda, Something I have previously defined as "agenda laundering". To quote one of their own research instruments to suggest popular support for their position is a reach. The same as if the PTP used one of their researchy type polls discussed here yesterday, as being representative of the public at large. Besides, amnesty is not applicable to someone affected by coupist machinations, as such judgments have no validity. Nitirat proposals spoke to this very forcefully and is supported by the electoral majority.

The argument that a target of a political coup can not be held responsible for actions taken after the coup is plainly ridiculous. Perhaps an apt analogy would be if you were a victim of a robbery and retaliated by burning the perpetrators home to the ground. Such an act would not be tolerated in a mature democracy. The actions that Thaksin took are indefensible, period.

[h90]

"The most important thing to watch is what the CDA will do with Article 309 of the current Constitution. The said article protects the legal consequences of the 2006 coup, and the CDA will be torn between doing away with the article or keeping it in the new Constitution.

Regarding the legal consequences of the coup, who in their right mind would seek to protect them. The majority elected Government has made it clear how untenable that is, as it is in any country where an election rectify's illegal coups. They summed up their position as follows, and no minority political group has the popular mandate to self-servingly prevent it:

"....the constitution is undemocratic as it resulted from the 2006 military coup"

The opposition put up strong resistance against any such amnesty, warning that there will be new political turmoil if Thaksin Shinawatra is whitewashed. The warning has been echoed by the results of an opinion poll, in which a clear majority of people surveyed voiced concern that there would be fresh violence if Thaksin is absolved.

The unidentified opinion poll was most likely one conducted by those who share the Oppositions's anti-Thaksin agenda, and used a researchy type veneer to advance this agenda, Something I have previously defined as "agenda laundering". To quote one of their own research instruments to suggest popular support for their position is a reach. The same as if the PTP used one of their researchy type polls discussed here yesterday, as being representative of the public at large. Besides, amnesty is not applicable to someone affected by coupist machinations, as such judgments have no validity. Nitirat proposals spoke to this very forcefully and is supported by the electoral majority.

The argument that a target of a political coup can not be held responsible for actions taken after the coup is plainly ridiculous. Perhaps an apt analogy would be if you were a victim of a robbery and retaliated by burning the perpetrators home to the ground. Such an act would not be tolerated in a mature democracy. The actions that Thaksin took are indefensible, period.

CalgaryII is defending everything Thaksin is doing, no matter how bad it is. While people who like the Democrats usually don't like everything the Democrats do, some of the hardcore Thaksin poster defend every action and if T flips his opinion 180 degree they flip their opinion in the same second.....

Don't know where these forum clone-warrior come from.....

[phiphidon]

The next political storm is only just heating up

and we're doing our best stoking the fire, says a Nation source

[padfoot]

PAD is brewing up.

Next time it won't be just taking the Airports, but something more that important and meaningful to Thai people.

Their skin whitener?

[mca]

PAD is brewing up.

Next time it won't be just taking the Airports, but something more that important and meaningful to Thai people.

Their iPhones?

MK Suki?

[swillowbee]

<deleted>........ why can't the politicians elected to work on behalf of the people start doing just that instead of playing their self centred political games.

... because Thai's greed is now greater than the Thai's Buddha.

... it is all about Thai cultural values, now pervasive and key to understanding what a Thai will do.

[MEL1]

What a refreshing and well written editorial, for a change.

Obviously it is written by a farang, no matter the credibility attached to it.

It contains many fair and accurate comments, which compile into reasonable reading.

Most of it does boil down to a whitewashed slate for Mr Thaksin, and reactions to that, as we are well aware.

The editorial does point to that most crucial of matters, and that is reactions to certain ammended bills by both parties. It is clearly stated that if Mr T is forgiven, held unaccountable for past actions, and permitted to come back freely without charge then all hell will break loose.

We all also know this, but this is a precise editorial which points directly to that point. Be it sooner or later in this year, we know what the intent of the current 'regime' is, and if try to pass it unwarranted then there will likely be a tantamount to civil war here.

A simply underwritten article , in a very subtle manner, is well presented here. Well done to TV for a fair and fresh editorial.

-mel.

Edited April 10, 2012 by MEL1

[hellodolly]

PAD is brewing up.

Next time it won't be just taking the Airports, but something more that important and meaningful to Thai people.

Well let us look at the record.2010 92 dead exceptable.

The Thai people elected the party behind it.

[hellodolly]

"The most important thing to watch is what the CDA will do with Article 309 of the current Constitution. The said article protects the legal consequences of the 2006 coup, and the CDA will be torn between doing away with the article or keeping it in the new Constitution.

Regarding the legal consequences of the coup, who in their right mind would seek to protect them. The majority elected Government has made it clear how untenable that is, as it is in any country where an election rectify's illegal coups. They summed up their position as follows, and no minority political group has the popular mandate to self-servingly prevent it:

"....the constitution is undemocratic as it resulted from the 2006 military coup"

The opposition put up strong resistance against any such amnesty, warning that there will be new political turmoil if Thaksin Shinawatra is whitewashed. The warning has been echoed by the results of an opinion poll, in which a clear majority of people surveyed voiced concern that there would be fresh violence if Thaksin is absolved.

The unidentified opinion poll was most likely one conducted by those who share the Oppositions's anti-Thaksin agenda, and used a researchy type veneer to advance this agenda, Something I have previously defined as "agenda laundering". To quote one of their own research instruments to suggest popular support for their position is a reach. The same as if the PTP used one of their researchy type polls discussed here yesterday, as being representative of the public at large. Besides, amnesty is not applicable to someone affected by coupist machinations, as such judgments have no validity. Nitirat proposals spoke to this very forcefully and is supported by the electoral majority.

The argument that a target of a political coup can not be held responsible for actions taken after the coup is plainly ridiculous. Perhaps an apt analogy would be if you were a victim of a robbery and retaliated by burning the perpetrators home to the ground. Such an act would not be tolerated in a mature democracy. The actions that Thaksin took are indefensible, period.

CalgaryII is defending everything Thaksin is doing, no matter how bad it is. While people who like the Democrats usually don't like everything the Democrats do, some of the hardcore Thaksin poster defend every action and if T flips his opinion 180 degree they flip their opinion in the same second.....

Don't know where these forum clone-warrior come from.....

If Thaksin said the Sahara desert was covered up last night in a snow storm with 300centemeters of snow Calgaryll would agree with it.

Where do they come from I don't know either but it would be interesting to see who sign's there pay checks.

[backtonormal]

PAD is brewing up.

Next time it won't be just taking the Airports, but something more that important and meaningful to Thai people.

PAD served a purpose and now its dead. Please tell us what is more important to the Thai people (are they going to shut down chon 3 5 7 so they cant watch those silly soaps)

[backtonormal]

"The most important thing to watch is what the CDA will do with Article 309 of the current Constitution. The said article protects the legal consequences of the 2006 coup, and the CDA will be torn between doing away with the article or keeping it in the new Constitution.

Regarding the legal consequences of the coup, who in their right mind would seek to protect them. The majority elected Government has made it clear how untenable that is, as it is in any country where an election rectify's illegal coups. They summed up their position as follows, and no minority political group has the popular mandate to self-servingly prevent it:

"....the constitution is undemocratic as it resulted from the 2006 military coup"

The opposition put up strong resistance against any such amnesty, warning that there will be new political turmoil if Thaksin Shinawatra is whitewashed. The warning has been echoed by the results of an opinion poll, in which a clear majority of people surveyed voiced concern that there would be fresh violence if Thaksin is absolved.

The unidentified opinion poll was most likely one conducted by those who share the Oppositions's anti-Thaksin agenda, and used a researchy type veneer to advance this agenda, Something I have previously defined as "agenda laundering". To quote one of their own research instruments to suggest popular support for their position is a reach. The same as if the PTP used one of their researchy type polls discussed here yesterday, as being representative of the public at large. Besides, amnesty is not applicable to someone affected by coupist machinations, as such judgments have no validity. Nitirat proposals spoke to this very forcefully and is supported by the electoral majority.

The argument that a target of a political coup can not be held responsible for actions taken after the coup is plainly ridiculous. Perhaps an apt analogy would be if you were a victim of a robbery and retaliated by burning the perpetrators home to the ground. Such an act would not be tolerated in a mature democracy. The actions that Thaksin took are indefensible, period.

CalgaryII is defending everything Thaksin is doing, no matter how bad it is. While people who like the Democrats usually don't like everything the Democrats do, some of the hardcore Thaksin poster defend every action and if T flips his opinion 180 degree they flip their opinion in the same second.....

Don't know where these forum clone-warrior come from.....

Personally I think there is too many Thai warriors with an agenda on here

[h90]

PAD is brewing up.

Next time it won't be just taking the Airports, but something more that important and meaningful to Thai people.

PAD served a purpose and now its dead. Please tell us what is more important to the Thai people (are they going to shut down chon 3 5 7 so they cant watch those silly soaps)

PAD is pretty dead, but I wouldn't count it off. If there is something that makes the people really angry and/or the Democrats get the idea to support the PAD it could be strong again.

[Skywalker69]

"The most important thing to watch is what the CDA will do with Article 309 of the current Constitution. The said article protects the legal consequences of the 2006 coup, and the CDA will be torn between doing away with the article or keeping it in the new Constitution.

Regarding the legal consequences of the coup, who in their right mind would seek to protect them. The majority elected Government has made it clear how untenable that is, as it is in any country where an election rectify's illegal coups. They summed up their position as follows, and no minority political group has the popular mandate to self-servingly prevent it:

"....the constitution is undemocratic as it resulted from the 2006 military coup"

The opposition put up strong resistance against any such amnesty, warning that there will be new political turmoil if Thaksin Shinawatra is whitewashed. The warning has been echoed by the results of an opinion poll, in which a clear majority of people surveyed voiced concern that there would be fresh violence if Thaksin is absolved.

The unidentified opinion poll was most likely one conducted by those who share the Oppositions's anti-Thaksin agenda, and used a researchy type veneer to advance this agenda, Something I have previously defined as "agenda laundering". To quote one of their own research instruments to suggest popular support for their position is a reach. The same as if the PTP used one of their researchy type polls discussed here yesterday, as being representative of the public at large. Besides, amnesty is not applicable to someone affected by coupist machinations, as such judgments have no validity. Nitirat proposals spoke to this very forcefully and is supported by the electoral majority.

The argument that a target of a political coup can not be held responsible for actions taken after the coup is plainly ridiculous. Perhaps an apt analogy would be if you were a victim of a robbery and retaliated by burning the perpetrators home to the ground. Such an act would not be tolerated in a mature democracy. The actions that Thaksin took are indefensible, period.

CalgaryII is defending everything Thaksin is doing, no matter how bad it is. While people who like the Democrats usually don't like everything the Democrats do, some of the hardcore Thaksin poster defend every action and if T flips his opinion 180 degree they flip their opinion in the same second.....

Don't know where these forum clone-warrior come from.....

If Thaksin said the Sahara desert was covered up last night in a snow storm with 300centemeters of snow Calgaryll would agree with it.

Where do they come from I don't know either but it would be interesting to see who sign's there pay checks.

Thaksin via R.Amsterdam?

Think of it R:A. is from Canada, get a clue?

Edited April 10, 2012 by Skywalker69

[bigbamboo]

"The most important thing to watch is what the CDA will do with Article 309 of the current Constitution. The said article protects the legal consequences of the 2006 coup, and the CDA will be torn between doing away with the article or keeping it in the new Constitution.

Regarding the legal consequences of the coup, who in their right mind would seek to protect them. The majority elected Government has made it clear how untenable that is, as it is in any country where an election rectify's illegal coups. They summed up their position as follows, and no minority political group has the popular mandate to self-servingly prevent it:

"....the constitution is undemocratic as it resulted from the 2006 military coup"

The opposition put up strong resistance against any such amnesty, warning that there will be new political turmoil if Thaksin Shinawatra is whitewashed. The warning has been echoed by the results of an opinion poll, in which a clear majority of people surveyed voiced concern that there would be fresh violence if Thaksin is absolved.

The unidentified opinion poll was most likely one conducted by those who share the Oppositions's anti-Thaksin agenda, and used a researchy type veneer to advance this agenda, Something I have previously defined as "agenda laundering". To quote one of their own research instruments to suggest popular support for their position is a reach. The same as if the PTP used one of their researchy type polls discussed here yesterday, as being representative of the public at large. Besides, amnesty is not applicable to someone affected by coupist machinations, as such judgments have no validity. Nitirat proposals spoke to this very forcefully and is supported by the electoral majority.

The argument that a target of a political coup can not be held responsible for actions taken after the coup is plainly ridiculous. Perhaps an apt analogy would be if you were a victim of a robbery and retaliated by burning the perpetrators home to the ground. Such an act would not be tolerated in a mature democracy. The actions that Thaksin took are indefensible, period.

CalgaryII is defending everything Thaksin is doing, no matter how bad it is. While people who like the Democrats usually don't like everything the Democrats do, some of the hardcore Thaksin poster defend every action and if T flips his opinion 180 degree they flip their opinion in the same second.....

Don't know where these forum clone-warrior come from.....

If Thaksin said the Sahara desert was covered up last night in a snow storm with 300centemeters of snow Calgaryll would agree with it.

Where do they come from I don't know either but it would be interesting to see who sign's there pay checks.

And when that Saharan snow had magically melted away by morning Calgaryll would no doubt say that was entirely due to the amazing Miss Yingluck being so hot!

[JAG]

Where do they come from I don't know either but it would be interesting to see who sign's there pay checks.

Surely your not suggesting that they are paid to post - I thought that was against forum rules.......

[MaiChai]

The kingpin buys everyone. Don't any Thais have any ethics, morals or sense of what is right or wrong?

Edited April 10, 2012 by MaiChai

[mca]

The kingpin buys everyone. Don't any Thais have any ethics, morals or sense of what is right or wrong?

No. All 66 million of them are as bent as shit. Or that's what you'd glean reading some of the mind numbingly obtuse drivel posted on this forum.

[mca]

Where do they come from I don't know either but it would be interesting to see who sign's there pay checks

If you've got any evidence of this the mods would be pleased to see it. If not........

BTW no disrespects to Calgaryll but if I was paying him to post I'd hope I'd kept the receipt.

Edited April 10, 2012 by mca