Thai Expert Warns Of Another Quake In Andaman Region

[skorchio]

I am geologist, I don't remember 'vertical strikeslip fault' in the literature. A strikeslip fault has has horizontal movement, thats why it is called strikeslip. A normal or reverse fault has vertical movement. But maybe I am too long out of Uni ..... or not well-enough-versed in fault terminology.

[RichardinBKK]

It seems to me that the expert in this case is saying "the trend is your friend"...(in this case...enemy) If he just came out of the blue and said, "I think there will be an earthquake in 6 months..than yeah, that is a stretch.

He is saying that historically seismic activity happens in bunches, so be aware that if we "go vertical" shift instead of side slip...it is going to suck...big time.

If you live on the coast, or have friends there...my advise is...enjoy the holiday, but have a clear action plan that would insure a safe retreat and diminish loss of property.

(PS; If you are on a beach, and suddenly see the "tide go out" right before your eyes...do not hesitate...run for your life...there is a monster wave on the way, traveling at about the speed of a commercial jet)

Edited April 13, 2012 by RichardinBKK

[KimoMax]

If a earthquake caused a Tsunami hiting Thailand during Sonkran, that would give a new meaning to all the Water Splashing :-)

But in all seriousness. History is the best lesson for learning about earthquakes. If anyone has noticed, there have also been some significant quakes in many parts of the world since the most recent Indonesian 8.7 or 6 quake. No one really knows if one big quake can trigger another elsewhere or even in the same region. But recent major earthquake data and history shows Indonesia, thailand, India, and Japan should be aware and cautious for the future.

Edited April 13, 2012 by KimoMax

[PoodMaiDai]

Bu chance this isn't the same genius who tried using boats to push the water out of Bangkok, is it?

[Soupdragon]

No technology exists to measure pressures and stresses at the depths we are talking about. Any predictions are largely based on historical data and are at best a guess.

whilst this is true, GPS technology enables us to measure plate movements to within millimetres, and also any rapid bulges in land and sea level. In addition magnetometers and gravitometers allow us to detect changes in the mantle. Further there are minor quakes every day, these enable us by analysis of the "P" and "S" waves to also determine what is going on beneath our feet.

So it is a bit more than a guess, we can tell when the conditions are right for a quake, the only guess is the exact moment, it needs a trigger, sometimes another quake, sometimes lunar tidal stresses or isostatic shifts.

When you say "the exact moment" what time scale are you talking about. I suspect it is years if not decades.

If predicting quakes with any accuracy is possible why isn't it being done ???

[metisdead]

Some nonsensical posts have been removed.

[animatic]

LOL... Thai expert saying how he's the only one in the world who knows about these types of quakes. He should get this story in a Thai paper, they are the only people that might actually believe him.

Not at all,he is saying what is generally understood.

And explaining about the relatively newly observed nature of the 2004 quake.

His advice is well taken, regardless of the necessary vagueness about time frames.

No one can predict specifics, but his observations seem quite plausible,

based on my understanding of the processes involved.

And better aware of the possibility than go blithely along in ignorance.

Edited April 13, 2012 by animatic

[anterian]

No technology exists to measure pressures and stresses at the depths we are talking about. Any predictions are largely based on historical data and are at best a guess.

whilst this is true, GPS technology enables us to measure plate movements to within millimetres, and also any rapid bulges in land and sea level. In addition magnetometers and gravitometers allow us to detect changes in the mantle. Further there are minor quakes every day, these enable us by analysis of the "P" and "S" waves to also determine what is going on beneath our feet.

So it is a bit more than a guess, we can tell when the conditions are right for a quake, the only guess is the exact moment, it needs a trigger, sometimes another quake, sometimes lunar tidal stresses or isostatic shifts.

When you say "the exact moment" what time scale are you talking about. I suspect it is years if not decades.

If predicting quakes with any accuracy is possible why isn't it being done ???

Take a stick in your hands, start to bend it, now predict when it will snap. You know it will snap, and roughly when, but not precisely when.

Take a torch, turn it on, eventually the battery will go flat, again you know roughly when, but not the precise moment.

When you get down to a certain level of analysis chaotic events become significant, and chaos is unpredictable. But we are getting better at understanding chaotic events, seismology is a fairly new science but the more events we collect data on, the better predictions will become.

[samsiam]

Thailand...hub of the most awesomest earthquake predictors...

[voodoomagicman]

i wl be oiled. bring it on . can i make sure the mrs is first. want to die happy x

[animatic]

No technology exists to measure pressures and stresses at the depths we are talking about. Any predictions are largely based on historical data and are at best a guess.

whilst this is true, GPS technology enables us to measure plate movements to within millimetres, and also any rapid bulges in land and sea level. In addition magnetometers and gravitometers allow us to detect changes in the mantle. Further there are minor quakes every day, these enable us by analysis of the "P" and "S" waves to also determine what is going on beneath our feet.

So it is a bit more than a guess, we can tell when the conditions are right for a quake, the only guess is the exact moment, it needs a trigger, sometimes another quake, sometimes lunar tidal stresses or isostatic shifts.

Interesting the GPS I use on boats and planes is good to about 10 meters. I was under the impression that even using both of the most sophisticated error correcting methods GPS was good to about 30 cm. Regardless of the instrumentation, I would suggest that earthquakes are a complex, chaotic phenomena that are inherently and even theoretically impossible to predict - when, where, how or how bad. The worst earthquake I experienced was 7.5 in California on a fault no one even knew existed. No reputable scientist would be making the claims of this "expert".

GPS has been used to monitor tectonic slippage but a more finite measurement method is the use of lasers, somewhat akin to the beams that block elevator or garage doors from closing when the beam is interrupted. These lasers are aimed across opposite sides of fault lines and any shift in the plates will cause the beam to misalign from the target receptor and alert scientists. But this does not mean an earthquake is about to happen, only that the plates have shifted.

Una. and Anterian are correct.

GPS is useful at better than commercial grade for scientific work,

but not close to the accuracy of lasers across fault lines.

Not so much a make or break, as stated above, which is used,

but a change in distance is measured by Doppler Shift of the color spectrum ,

that a distance shift can cause. All the above and more is measured

and fed computer standard models of the are for groups of monitor points.

Still earthquake prediction is based in 10, 50 and 100 year periods generally,

but after a big one entrained after shocks or sympathetic actions,

caused by pressures increased by another actions, such as 2004 and yesterdays action,

can increase the likelihood and significantly shorten the periods between next actions.

And of course EVERY region and fault is different and the pressures one it different.

Edited April 13, 2012 by animatic

[terryp]

ThaiVisa the Hub of experts on every subject known to Man.......

[anterian]

Try this analogy, slide you finger across your desk top, it will move smoothly, now increase the pressure on your fingertip, it will now move in a series of jerks. Tectonic plates are the same, when they move with little friction, they move smoothly, no quakes. If however friction is high they move in a series of jerks, quakes. So if smooth plate movement ceases we know that forces are building up and eventually will be released with a jerk, a quake.

If we know the previous intervals between such jerks we have a reasonable idea of when the next is due.

Edited April 13, 2012 by anterian

[unanimosity]

If a earthquake caused a Tsunami hiting Thailand during Sonkran, that would give a new meaning to all the Water Splashing :-)

But in all seriousness. History is the best lesson for learning about earthquakes. If anyone has noticed, there have also been some significant quakes in many parts of the world since the most recent Indonesian 8.7 or 6 quake. No one really knows if one big quake can trigger another elsewhere or even in the same region. But recent major earthquake data and history shows Indonesia, thailand, India, and Japan should be aware and cautious for the future.

They do know and there is no relationship. All you have to do is follow the news. Most of the people in the world and maybe 99% of TV posters have never lived in earthquake zones and seem to believe it is like the weather or that there are patterns to warn of an impending quake. Balderdash.

Unusual animal behavior is known to occur at the onset of quakes. There is some research suggesting that changes in radon in soil and water may become an indicator. And intersecting fault quakes where a release of energy on one fault, which migrates both up and down the fault, can transfer energy into an intersecting fault causing such things as happened in Los Angeles during the 6.7 Northridge quake of 4:31a.m. on 17 January 1994 where Northridge and the northern part of the San Fernando Valley suffered considerable damage, as did Santa Monica and West Los Angeles, while areas inbetween remained essentially unscathed. The explanation was that the Northridge Thrust quake radiated downward and back up an intersecting fault to cause the Santa Monica and WLA damage.

[Guest]

Isn't Doppler shift used to calculate speed difference of the objects, not the distance?

[unanimosity]

Try this analogy, slide you finger across your desk top, it will move smoothly, now increase the pressure on your fingertip, it will now move in a series of jerks. Tectonic plates are the same, when they move with little friction, they move smoothly, no quakes. If however friction is high they move in a series of jerks, quakes. So if smooth plate movement ceases we know that forces are building up and eventually will be released with a jerk, a quake.

If we know the previous intervals between such jerks we have a reasonable idea of when the next is due.

Who is "we," and what is "reasonable?" On what basis do you and whoever believe that past quake activity can predict future quake activity? Why haven't you and whoever won Nobel prizes for this magic prognostication you "we" folk possess? Keep the faith, maybe you'll win if there's ever a first time you guess right, haha.

[cup-O-coffee]

I guess I won't criticize him if he simply said it, and someone else picked up on it, and he ended up getting pushed into the limelight. On the other hand, if he went public of his own free will to get this in the news, then I hope he's right for his own credibility's sake, and at the same time I hope he's wrong for a lot of innocent people's sakes.

There are a lot of things said in Thailand, by Thais, that get put into the public limelight, that are better off left unsaid.

Thailand is a hub for this kind of thing.

[animatic]

Isn't Doppler shift used to calculate speed difference of the objects, not the distance?

Both.

A shift in distance is shown by a increase or decrease of the very precise frequency of the laser,

caused by it's going from stasis to a speed in one direction or another. Of any duration.

They tend to mount the laser sensors in the direction of historical travel,

but if the movement skews, then it might go off the reflection path

and then they know to look at the last registered numbers for a partial estimate,

between a change in frequency and going off scale, which is a set physical distance.

People recognize Doppler Shift from the brass band on a train passing,

or more commonly the car horn as it arrives and passes you.

But the same effect on the sound waves we here happens

more subtly in the light and electromagnetic spectrums.

Edited April 13, 2012 by animatic

[animatic]

I guess I won't criticize him if he simply said it, and someone else picked up on it, and he ended up getting pushed into the limelight. On the other hand, if he went public of his own free will to get this in the news, then I hope he's right for his own credibility's sake, and at the same time I hope he's wrong for a lot of innocent people's sakes.

There are a lot of things said in Thailand, by Thais, that get put into the public limelight, that are better off left unsaid.

Thailand is a hub for this kind of thing.

His statement is more coherent and based on science than the Science Minster's statements by far...

though that IS a low bar to pass.

[hedonist44]

That's right mock the gentleman. Only Farangs know.

As is reported. The Sendai quake had a similiar scenario. What's wrong with being prudent?

Well said. A so called Thai "expert" predicted a quake would strike in Kanchanaburi a couple of years ago, one of the least "active" places in the region, and everyone though he was out of his mind.

Then begger me sideways, it hit in Si Sawat district. Nothing too serious (3.7), but it still happened. These guys have access to top-end technology so when they speak it's prudent to listen.

Please tell us your not serious.....I would hate to think you actually give credence to one of these so called "experts".

[Thai-Aust]

Thai expert...sounds like an oxymoron....anyway, pretty good guess. Quakes of that magnitude are often followed by many days or weeks of after shocks.

LOL... Thai expert saying how he's the only one in the world who knows about these types of quakes. He should get this story in a Thai paper, they are the only people that might actually believe him.

" Thai experts" yeah right, please don't get me started,,

yeah! we should only listen and believe the experts from the West, any non-farangs's opinion should be automatically dismissed.

[easybullet3]

Thai expert...sounds like an oxymoron

Whenever there is a quake rooted in the [Earth's] mantle, a following quake will be likely in the next few days," said Professor Thanawat Jaruphongsakul, a senior seismologist at Chulalongkorn University.

"a following earthquake will be LIKELY"??? I think the word POSSIBLE is more wise than likely!

i don't ever remember a 2nd earthquake after the 2004 tsunami... nor do I remember 2nd earthquakes after other such disasters. I can only find maybe 2 examples of this in 15 major earthquakes.

which leads on the the first quote: OXYMORON!! Thai Expert!!

[Thai at Heart]

Why doesnt the headline simply simply state"increased possibility". They love to portray scientists as fortune tellers but all that achieves is to make them sound like megalomaniacs

[Soupdragon]

No technology exists to measure pressures and stresses at the depths we are talking about. Any predictions are largely based on historical data and are at best a guess.

whilst this is true, GPS technology enables us to measure plate movements to within millimetres, and also any rapid bulges in land and sea level. In addition magnetometers and gravitometers allow us to detect changes in the mantle. Further there are minor quakes every day, these enable us by analysis of the "P" and "S" waves to also determine what is going on beneath our feet.

So it is a bit more than a guess, we can tell when the conditions are right for a quake, the only guess is the exact moment, it needs a trigger, sometimes another quake, sometimes lunar tidal stresses or isostatic shifts.

When you say "the exact moment" what time scale are you talking about. I suspect it is years if not decades.

If predicting quakes with any accuracy is possible why isn't it being done ???

Take a stick in your hands, start to bend it, now predict when it will snap. You know it will snap, and roughly when, but not precisely when.

Take a torch, turn it on, eventually the battery will go flat, again you know roughly when, but not the precise moment.

When you get down to a certain level of analysis chaotic events become significant, and chaos is unpredictable. But we are getting better at understanding chaotic events, seismology is a fairly new science but the more events we collect data on, the better predictions will become.

I accept that but my point is we are talking about geological timescales where events are measured not in minutes and hours but in decades and centuries.

I remember after the 2004 quake that triggered the tsunami there was a lot of talk about a similar fault of the coast of USA that is 'due' for a big slip. When the experts said 'due' they meant anytime in the next fifty years and even that is a guess.

[anterian]

To have no faith in expert opinion is everyone's prerogative, never go to a doctor, never take your car to a garage, never watch a weather forecast, never listen to financial advisers. Personally, I prefer to learn enough about a subject to understand the data and methods that the expert uses, this then gives me a reasonable chance of deciding the probability of that expert being correct.

Some people choose to use words like "expert" and "academic" or "professor" as terms of derision, I think in many cases this is based on envy more than anything else. The world is full of anti-intellectuals, TV has more than its fair share.

[VanHelsing]

same kind of news i heard from a friend hearing it from her favorite fortune-teller she pays for playing solitaire...

me thinks ngc and discovery will make good business from this "thai expert"...

[anterian]

I accept that but my point is we are talking about geological timescales where events are measured not in minutes and hours but in decades and centuries.

I remember after the 2004 quake that triggered the tsunami there was a lot of talk about a similar fault of the coast of USA that is 'due' for a big slip. When the experts said 'due' they meant anytime in the next fifty years and even that is a guess.

If you are diagnosed with untreatable cancer, with a life expectancy of about 3 months, do you call the doctor a failure because he cannot name the day and minute?

We are dealing with probabilities, just like someone playing the stock market, if you are good at dealing with probability, you get rich. A stock market expert is someone who has tracked probabilities over many years and is right more often than he is wrong.

If you were told there was a 10% probability you would be killed tomorrow in a traffic accident, I doubt if you would worry much, If however it was a 90% probability you would possibly stay at home. This is called risk assessment, we all do it. If an expert gives you an expert opinion, you simply run it through your personal risk assessment mechanism, you decide what to do.

So if an expert gives you an opinion, don't deride it, just say "Thank you, I will take it under consideration".

[Soupdragon]

I accept that but my point is we are talking about geological timescales where events are measured not in minutes and hours but in decades and centuries.

I remember after the 2004 quake that triggered the tsunami there was a lot of talk about a similar fault of the coast of USA that is 'due' for a big slip. When the experts said 'due' they meant anytime in the next fifty years and even that is a guess.

If you are diagnosed with untreatable cancer, with a life expectancy of about 3 months, do you call the doctor a failure because he cannot name the day and minute?

We are dealing with probabilities, just like someone playing the stock market, if you are good at dealing with probability, you get rich. A stock market expert is someone who has tracked probabilities over many years and is right more often than he is wrong.

If you were told there was a 10% probability you would be killed tomorrow in a traffic accident, I doubt if you would worry much, If however it was a 90% probability you would possibly stay at home. This is called risk assessment, we all do it. If an expert gives you an expert opinion, you simply run it through your personal risk assessment mechanism, you decide what to do.

So if an expert gives you an opinion, don't deride it, just say "Thank you, I will take it under consideration".

Please read my post again. I did not say that I don't listen to the 'experts' I did say that the timescales involved in geological events are a lot longer than any of the events you mention.

A simple question. How accurate, as in on what timescale, are current predictions of seismic events ? Days, weeks, months, years, decades, centuries ?

Edited April 14, 2012 by Soupdragon

[Thai at Heart]

With absolute certaonty another tsunami like 2004 will happen again. I know coz it happened before. Could be tomorrow. Could be on 50 years or a millenium.

Does this make me an expert.

[sjjmmi]

_{2.4 Magnitude hits Myanmar just 38km from Thailand / TANN}