Pound Hits 50, How Long Will The Trend Last?

[chiang mai]

TBL - The current GBP sell rate on Oanda is 50.22 so figure that the bank takes about 50 satang per Pound for their exchange fee, that makes 49.76 look quite healthy.

[Billmont]

I transferred my money GBP the other day and got 50.17 TT to my Bangkok Bank account I have just had a quick check and it is down to 49.97 I think that this must be the first time I managed to do a transfer at the right time to benefit me, if I transfer GBP generally just drops like a stone

http://www.bangkokba...s/FX_Rates.aspx

I did exactly the same and like you the rate usually moves against me after I have dealt, on this occasion we have both experienced the other side of the coin. Makes a pleasant change.

[chiang mai]

625]

Posted 14 minutes ago

anterian, on 20 minutes ago, said:

Is it not possible the the increased tourism this year in England with both the Olympics and the Jubilee are having an effect on the Pound?

I would guess the impact will be negligible, despite them both being very worthwhile events, neither of them has any serious impact on the overall economy outside of hotels and restaurants.

Chiang Mai, I totally disagree, read this http://www.visitbrit...acts/index.aspx

8.6 of GDP is not negligible.

I agree that 8.6% of GDP is significant but the UK will see that through tourism anyway each year, the question is, how much more will the Jubillee and the Olympics add and my guess is that it'll only be a further couple of percent at best. Remember, 8.6% is for a full year, the two key events this year are only for a few weeks.

[emibel]

yes, sure, but bigger inflation means weaker baht, or higher pound as you like to see it.

The chairman of the Thai Central Bank has just been replaced and the new appointed one, Virabongsa, has declared yesterday that he is in favour of easing the interest rates in order to keep pace or further boost the economy.

If that happens, I think we will see a weaker baht in a mid term.

Lower interest rates means higher inflation, can't see that being a winner.

[wotaplonker]

pleeeeeze can it get back to 74 to the £, as it was when i first visited 8 years ago !!

[crazykopite]

Here's my guesswork:

all things being equall the Pound should be around USD 1.50 (ish) and THB 45 (ish), so what we're seeing now is an aberation because of unusual circumstances. For my part I fully intend to transact any remaining GBP/THB transactions at the current levels because I don't expect to see the levels levels last for very long, OK, maybe there will be small amounts of movement upwards but the trend is unquestionably downwards, as far as I am concerned.

Hmmmm. It's been trending up ever so slightly for a long time, but you may be right about it being an abberation.

Decisions decisions.

Thanks to both that answered so far.

Take the money and run this is miracle Thailand it does not change by the day but by the hour !!!!!!!!

[HardenedSoul]

pleeeeeze can it get back to 74 to the £, as it was when i first visited 8 years ago !!

Look on the bright side. Anyone earning money in Thai baht can buy significantly more of their home currency now

[crazykopite]

Here's a way to sort out which of you are currency experts. Which one of you is living off the proceeds of all the cash you made in forex trade?. There are so many 'experts' on here that there must be numerous millionaires here. So own up and let us know how much you made?

My guess is none of you made money and maybe many of you lost money.

No-one knows what GBP vs. THB will be in the future. If you think the current rate is good then take it. Don't waste your life listening to 'experts' on here and trying to wait for a perfect rate.

Reading these posts just shows how little people know, but how much they think they know. If people were as clever as they thought they were they could make a few GBP million overnight.

Actually the answer to a part of that question is that it doesn't have to have been done through straight forex trades. One example is those individuals who bought property in Thailand when the rate was 1:70 for the pound. They are now sitting on a sizeable appreciation if they just sell the property at the same baht value they bought it at.

If I sold my property for less than I paid for it I would still make a very good profit on it providing I exchanged it back into sterling but as I have no intentions of returning back to the UK I would rather stick it in a savings account and get a much better % rate than if it was sitting in my UK bank account. After 6 years of living in Thailand I avoid trying to work out between currencies and now accept the rate when needing to send out more sterling . If the rate is 50 to the £ then it has been a long time coming but hey ho that is better than 47.5 . 6 years ago I remember getting 1. 74.5 to the £ I think those days are well gone What I do hate is that the 65,000 baht per month retirement requirement remains the same and is never tied into the exchange rate and that sucks !!!!!!

[Nigel1500]

I'd wait until it hits parity with the AUD$.

[CHANGOVER]

Yes 72/3- £ was good but as it's been dropping since then it's easier to live just NOT making the mental conversion! After enough time most people think in Baht and not £'s (or their home currency).

!0/12 years ago diesel was12 baht/litre, it's now nearly 31/litre here! I still drive as far.

I won't even mention the price for a case of Chang ;-) but ....yes I still drink it!

Edited May 16, 2012 by CHANGOVER

[chiang mai]

Here's a way to sort out which of you are currency experts. Which one of you is living off the proceeds of all the cash you made in forex trade?. There are so many 'experts' on here that there must be numerous millionaires here. So own up and let us know how much you made?

My guess is none of you made money and maybe many of you lost money.

No-one knows what GBP vs. THB will be in the future. If you think the current rate is good then take it. Don't waste your life listening to 'experts' on here and trying to wait for a perfect rate.

Reading these posts just shows how little people know, but how much they think they know. If people were as clever as they thought they were they could make a few GBP million overnight.

Actually the answer to a part of that question is that it doesn't have to have been done through straight forex trades. One example is those individuals who bought property in Thailand when the rate was 1:70 for the pound. They are now sitting on a sizeable appreciation if they just sell the property at the same baht value they bought it at.

If I sold my property for less than I paid for it I would still make a very good profit on it providing I exchanged it back into sterling but as I have no intentions of returning back to the UK I would rather stick it in a savings account and get a much better % rate than if it was sitting in my UK bank account. After 6 years of living in Thailand I avoid trying to work out between currencies and now accept the rate when needing to send out more sterling . If the rate is 50 to the £ then it has been a long time coming but hey ho that is better than 47.5 . 6 years ago I remember getting 1. 74.5 to the £ I think those days are well gone What I do hate is that the 65,000 baht per month retirement requirement remains the same and is never tied into the exchange rate and that sucks !!!!!!

I did the same thing, I bought my car and my condo with Baht at 74, I sold my car six years later when the Baht was 45, that's almost free driving for six years and even if I sell my condo at a loss, I still make a profit in GBP terms.

[CHANGOVER]

CM - same timing i bought 2 houses at 74/£ and we're selling both for more than double. The truck also has only depreciated 50% after 9 years!!

EDIT to add - and as I am not intending to return to the UK the baht / £ rate doesn't really affect me as I can now buy more here now than I could with what I paid for then!

It also means I do not need to trs money from UK as often as I have all I need here.... mostly ;-)

Edited May 16, 2012 by CHANGOVER

[RaoulDuke]

No one can say anything for sure regarding currency rates, if you did have the power to predict it properly, you could be a billionaire. But I find it odd that everyone mentions the UK and EU, but very little mention is made of Thailand in this argument. The upcoming minimum wage hike COULD result in inflation, which may affect the exchange rate. If the price of goods and services go up locally because of the minimum wage, the exchange rate could very well change, as well, possibly weakening the baht. Of course, hikes in minimum wage do not guarantee inflation, but I find it odd that no one even considered this in the argument, especially since inflation seems to be a very hot issue in recent news out of Thailand.

[CHANGOVER]

Anyway to answer the OP, I have borrowed Khun Thaksin's shiny balls and predict 55 is the lucky number and will be reached before the last full moon in 2555!

[chiang mai]

No one can say anything for sure regarding currency rates, if you did have the power to predict it properly, you could be a billionaire. But I find it odd that everyone mentions the UK and EU, but very little mention is made of Thailand in this argument. The upcoming minimum wage hike COULD result in inflation, which may affect the exchange rate. If the price of goods and services go up locally because of the minimum wage, the exchange rate could very well change, as well, possibly weakening the baht. Of course, hikes in minimum wage do not guarantee inflation, but I find it odd that no one even considered this in the argument, especially since inflation seems to be a very hot issue in recent news out of Thailand.

If you read through the thread that has been considered.

[tdm]

Hi,

you've asked for experts, and I'm no expert but do have a view.

If a large US institution can lose over 1 billion on a trade, then this tells me that even the 'experts' aren't too sure whats gonna happen next in the world financial markets, let alone one currency pair. Depending on the amounts to be changed, 50 baht as opposed to 46 baht could mean a big deal, or not. You say you feel the rate has been so low, but it has been lower so it's all relative as I'm sure you are aware. You'd hate to change now and see the rate going up. How about if you don't change now, then you see the rate go down? Which scenario would bother you more?

From a techical point of view the pair has been in a range between approx 46 to 50 for the last 2.5 years ie sideways, or going nowhere, but seems to be consolodating and not yet seeing signs of dropping further. Currently at the top of that range, so for some, a good time to change money, but no real indication as yet that it's going to go higher.

Just one view.

[skills32]

It seems to me that the exchange rates also depend on the financial policies of the country involved.

Switzerland has been artificially keeping the Euro at 0.83 for weeks or months now, in order to keep exports on an even keel. (When we were getting 1 Euro for a Frank I, along with many other people living near the borders, went to France to do my shopping). This indirectly also affects the Thai Baht rate, which after jumping to 41 last August has been hovering around 33/34 for a long time now.

Switzerland does have the reserves to do this of course, but they will be back tracking some day I should imagine, something to look forward to in a selfish way for me.

If you can get 1 Euro for a Frank what is a Bruce worth?

[moonbarman]

Here's my guesswork:

all things being equall the Pound should be around USD 1.50 (ish) and THB 45 (ish), so what we're seeing now is an aberation because of unusual circumstances. For my part I fully intend to transact any remaining GBP/THB transactions at the current levels because I don't expect to see the levels levels last for very long, OK, maybe there will be small amounts of movement upwards but the trend is unquestionably downwards, as far as I am concerned.

I always think it is dangerous to use 'unquestionably' in a statement.

Totally agree, I remember when the interest rates in the UK were rising past the 18% and another so called 'expert' tried to convince me to invest money as the rates would continue to rise and never go lower. Boy was he wrong and was I glad my money ended up only in short term agreements. 55GBP to the baht by years end possible.

I certainly hope not i could'nt afford to live on less than 10baht a week for sure, it would make all the brit bashers happy though that we'd all have to leave los.

[chiang mai]

Any number of opinions, but no one has any real idea as to the direction of either currency. One post suggests a USD rate of 1.50, ignoring the fact that the USD/GBP rate has fluctuated for many years, moving over time between 1.38 and 2.10. Thailand government policies threaten massive debt obligations vs a low tax inflow, and a strong likelihood of quantitative easing - printing money.

In most countries, a combination of coups, airport seizures, street occupations, political musical chairs, dubious government policies, etc would have impacted on the currency. But foreign inflows have helped to keep the THB strong - I'd suggest overly so. Question is, how much of those inflows are speculative? And what happens if - or when - the speculators decide - as in 1997 - it's time to pull the plug?

Any number of opinions, but no one has any real idea as to the direction of either currency. One post suggests a USD rate of 1.50, ignoring the fact that the USD/GBP rate has fluctuated for many years, moving over time between 1.38 and 2.10. Thailand government policies threaten massive debt obligations vs a low tax inflow, and a strong likelihood of quantitative easing - printing money.

In most countries, a combination of coups, airport seizures, street occupations, political musical chairs, dubious government policies, etc would have impacted on the currency. But foreign inflows have helped to keep the THB strong - I'd suggest overly so. Question is, how much of those inflows are speculative? And what happens if - or when - the speculators decide - as in 1997 - it's time to pull the plug?

I can remember GBP/USD at 1.o and also at 2.60, all that really confirms is that the rate moves with the economic climate in both countries and that range has little to do with today.

But I'm curious, why do you think that Thailand is ready to begin QE, is there a supportable reason for this or merely an odd wish?

I don't think so. I believe the lowest point was $1.07. The good old days.

"Sterling fell sharply after 1980; at its lowest, the pound stood at just $1.03 in March 1985, before returning to the US$1.70 level in December 1989".

[01322521959]

Leave Del Boy alone! If he said it would get stronger last year, then he is quite correct. It certainly has got stronger.

[TommoPhysicist]

From a techical point of view the pair has been in a range between approx 46 to 50 for the last 2.5 years ie sideways, or going nowhere,

Alternatively, the pair has been in a range between 35 and 90 for the last 15 years.

(or in a range between 35 and 90 in a one year period during the last 15 years)

Why restrict your period of time to one that suits your views.

Also if you pick another currency pair, say UKP and USD, the variations have been to similar scales in the same time frames.

Edited May 17, 2012 by TommoPhysicist

[blackthorn2005]

How long do you want to wait?

At least at 50 it makes it easier to work out the price of a beer

RAZZ

Good point, what more do you need?

[chiang mai]

I have a partial answer TP:

market trends are usually plotted on a 30 or 200 day moving average basis hence looking at a slightly longer period of say two years, confirms the usually reliable answers shown in the 200 MA. But looking at 15 years shows a series of trends which simply confuse the picture.

Edited May 17, 2012 by chiang mai

[matt111]

Id be happy at 52-53baht/GBP,seem to be this about three years ago, once you take the commission, one baht for greedy bwanker A and another for B, plus some dropped change, then its everything a straight forward calcalution of doubles or halves. On a serious note, with all the major events in last 3.5years it has stayed within a relative small window, 46-54, so unless we have some major major major events I dont see anything that will push up back up to these magical 70 figures

Edited May 17, 2012 by matt111

[Naam]

"Sterling fell sharply after 1980; at its lowest, the pound stood at just $1.03 in March 1985, before returning to the US$1.70 level in December 1989".

let's rather put it this way: the US-Dollar appreciated sharply vs. virtually all currencies in 1985 whereas Sterling remained rather steady vs. other currencies.

[chiang mai]

"Sterling fell sharply after 1980; at its lowest, the pound stood at just $1.03 in March 1985, before returning to the US$1.70 level in December 1989".

let's rather put it this way: the US-Dollar appreciated sharply vs. virtually all currencies in 1985 whereas Sterling remained rather steady vs. other currencies.

I'll make wiki aware.

[Thongkorn]

The Pound has risen against 80% of the worlds currency. Offical

[chiang mai]

Ouch, I just read this about China and didn't realise the situation was that dire, it doesn't bode well for Thailand I would guess since there are similarities:

"In China: Year-on-year sales in Q1, for all real estate, were down 14.6%. Residential property sales were down 17.5% Office sales were down -10.2% Sales in January-February were a disaster, falling 20.9% overall, compared to the first two months of 2011, -24.7% for residential. Total amount of floor space “for sale” was up 35.5%, compared to the same date last year Floor space of residential units “for sale” grew 47.4%".

The full article is found on Mish's blog.

[tdm]

From a techical point of view the pair has been in a range between approx 46 to 50 for the last 2.5 years ie sideways, or going nowhere,

Alternatively, the pair has been in a range between 35 and 90 for the last 15 years.

(or in a range between 35 and 90 in a one year period during the last 15 years)

Why restrict your period of time to one that suits your views.

Also if you pick another currency pair, say UKP and USD, the variations have been to similar scales in the same time frames.

I have a partial answer TP:

market trends are usually plotted on a 30 or 200 day moving average basis hence looking at a slightly longer period of say two years, confirms the usually reliable answers shown in the 200 MA. But looking at 15 years shows a series of trends which simply confuse the picture.

Hi Tommo,

You're quite right that for different timeframes different trends may be apparent. While Chiang Mai's point is on the ball, the Op seemed to be looking to change currency in the near future, in which case 'recent history' of the pair might be more relevant.

Edited May 17, 2012 by tdm

[TommoPhysicist]

From a techical point of view the pair has been in a range between approx 46 to 50 for the last 2.5 years ie sideways, or going nowhere,

Alternatively, the pair has been in a range between 35 and 90 for the last 15 years.

(or in a range between 35 and 90 in a one year period during the last 15 years)

Why restrict your period of time to one that suits your views.

Also if you pick another currency pair, say UKP and USD, the variations have been to similar scales in the same time frames.

I have a partial answer TP:

market trends are usually plotted on a 30 or 200 day moving average basis hence looking at a slightly longer period of say two years, confirms the usually reliable answers shown in the 200 MA. But looking at 15 years shows a series of trends which simply confuse the picture.

Hi Tommy,

You're quite right that for different timeframes different trends may be apparent. While Chiang Mai's point is on the ball, the Op seemed to be looking to change currency in the near future, in which case 'recent history' of the pair might be more relevant.

Not if we are at the point of a violent change, which I suspect we might be.

I'm currently betting on an imminent financial crises in Thailand ...... time frame 0-3 years.

Edited May 17, 2012 by TommoPhysicist