Ayutthaya 'Will Be Submerged Again'

[webfact]

Ayutthaya 'will be submerged again'

Pongphon Sarnsamak

Experts warn that blocking water will only submerge several provinces

BANGKOK: -- Bangkok, Pathum Thani and Nonthaburi should not be affected too badly by floods this year because enough dykes and embankments have been built to protect them, though Ayutthaya will be under more than 3 metres of water, experts said yesterday.

This prediction was made by consulting company Team Group, which presented its findings at the "Knowing and Fighting against Flooding" seminar held yesterday at Bangkok's Emerald Hotel.

Team Group's managing director, Chawalit Chantararat, said a team of experts had used a model based on last year's volume of water in order to make this prediction. He said the team had discovered that many northern areas of Bangkok would be submerged, including sites around Rapeepat Rangsit and Prayoonrasak canals. In addition, Ayutthaya's Lat Bua Luang, Phak Hai, Bang Sai, Bang Lane, Bang Pla Mha, Sena, Bang Ban and Maha Rat districts will be affected as will Suphan Buri's Song Phi Nong district as well as Angthong's Pho Thong and Pa Moke districts. The flooding in these areas will up to 60 to 80centimetres deep, much higher than the level last year, while Ayutthaya's main town of Muang Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya will be under 3m of water.

Even though the rainfall will be less or the same as last year, water experts found that the level of flooding in some areas will be more than last year due to the many floodprevention measures taken to block runoffs to Bangkok, Nonthaburi and Pathum Thani. These floodprevention measures will divert floodwaters to other areas.

He added that areas in the west of Bangkok will be flooded this year such as the area between Khlong 13 canal and Nakhon Nayok's Ongkharak district as well as areas between Bangkok's Nong Chok district and Chachoengsao province's Bang Nam Prieo district. Other districts in Chachoengsao province will also be submerged as the government is planning to divert water to these areas.

Somchai Baimuang, deputy director of the Thai Meteorological Department, said the average rainfall since the start of this year was higher compared to the same period last year. However, he said, it was too early to say if the amount of rainfall this year will be higher than last year and that his agency would have to monitor the situation for another three months.

He added that he personally believes that flooding this year would be lower than last year because most of last year's flooding had been caused by heavy rainfall early in the rainy season. In addition, plenty of floodprevention measures have been taken to block the water flow, he said.

Pramote Maiklad, former irrigation chief and member of the Strategic Committee for Water Resources Management (SCWRM), said he was not confident about the government's floodprevention measures because very little progress has been made to construct embankments and other structures to prevent flooding.

"Just dredging canals across the upper and lower part of the North and Central regions will not stop the flooding," he said. Instead, he said, the government should construct floodways to divert floodwater to the sea instead of finding retention areas.

-- The Nation 2012-06-22

[MaiChai]

They built all those factories in Ayuttaya because the land was cheap. And why was it cheap? Because its a flood plain that regularly floods!

Its claimed that this land was sold at quite a good profit so quite likely some foreign companies paid over the odds.

[theblether]

I don't know about you but I wish I hadn't read that article.......talk about confusing and contradictory?? OH, Oh, I forgot.......It's Thailand.

Silly me

[chainarong]

Perhaps less talking and more action might solve a few problems, then again an earthquake, tsunami, volcano , prediction might help

[KED]

If the Three Stooges were a country - they would be Thailand.

[pipo1000]

If the Three Stooges were a country - they would be Thailand.

In thailand they have something like 35 stooges.................It's called the Cabinet

[jcw]

He added that areas in the west of Bangkok will be flooded this year

Must be a Democrat stronghold !!!!

Current MP's probably don't own much land there !!!

What a dodgy solution.

[h90]

He added that areas in the west of Bangkok will be flooded this year

Must be a Democrat stronghold !!!!

Current MP's probably don't own much land there !!!

What a dodgy solution.

I think both Dems and Red areas. Also the Prince has an palace here, which was flooded last year.

But most important h90 has his company there

[laurentbkk]

I dont think I can survive another flood ..my company as well ..maybe its time to move in another country with more city planing and more reliable information from government. in pathumtani area they are building a wall to prevent I dont know what ...time maybe to get help from professional people who know how to manage those crisis.

[saltandpepper]

Amazing !!! Not !!

YS said that there will be no floods, and now we learn that there will be 3 meters of water in Ayutthaya??? Where did she get her infos, if she got and understood any?

2 days ago, there was a thread saying that government is loosing race against floods, so nothing to make us feel a bit confident here

[h90]

I dont think I can survive another flood ..my company as well ..maybe its time to move in another country with more city planing and more reliable information from government. in pathumtani area they are building a wall to prevent I dont know what ...time maybe to get help from professional people who know how to manage those crisis.

The question is if the wall will prevent the water from going in or from going out.....

My company made October+December only half the turn-over and November we made 2000 Baht (we bring something per boat).

So basically the year had just 10 month. A lot of damage. While the domestic customer can wait because they have their own problems the international customer buy somewhere different.

[Pib]

First of all, what kind of company name is Team Group? Second of all, since Team Group is a consulting firm, the article didn't say who hired them to do this study. Their findings sound too doom and gloom...me think the findings are anti-govt (not to imply the govt did a good job in last year's floods because they didn't).

[givenall]

They built all those factories in Ayuttaya because the land was cheap. And why was it cheap? Because its a flood plain that regularly floods!

Its claimed that this land was sold at quite a good profit so quite likely some foreign companies paid over the odds.

These incompetent people in charge should be taken out in the middle of the ocean in a boat and left without any paddles. They are worse less. What happened for decade everything was fine suddenly from last year the officials tell us we have flood every years. <deleted>

[DP25]

He added that areas in the west of Bangkok will be flooded this year

Must be a Democrat stronghold !!!!

Current MP's probably don't own much land there !!!

What a dodgy solution.

It is actually, every district west of the river voted for Dems last election.

[Crushdepth]

There will be no floods. The PM said so, I believe her.

[slapout]

Understanding comes when you take into account the Thai people who have been tasked to solve the flooding problem have no training nor have they experienced it personally.

The expertese which has been offered and then ignored, then the lip service of be sprayed about, we are doing our best, I ordered Somchai to take care of the problems, etc the odds of any one knowing enough to forecast are slanted toward the house.

[h90]

First of all, what kind of company name is Team Group? Second of all, since Team Group is a consulting firm, the article didn't say who hired them to do this study. Their findings sound too doom and gloom...me think the findings are anti-govt (not to imply the govt did a good job in last year's floods because they didn't).

You know that there are already some floodings NOW. Means now while Yingluck says there will be no floods there are already some. There is a complete agreement that the dams have too much water at the moment. So if everything continues like it is now and there is plenty of rain like normal we'll have exactly the same as last year.

If there are drastic changes, if there is less rain we'll be better off

If nothing changes and it will rain more, it will be worse.

Beside, if you block the water it will raise higher.......

[h90]

Understanding comes when you take into account the Thai people who have been tasked to solve the flooding problem have no training nor have they experienced it personally.

The expertese which has been offered and then ignored, then the lip service of be sprayed about, we are doing our best, I ordered Somchai to take care of the problems, etc the odds of any one knowing enough to forecast are slanted toward the house.

+ they are not motivated.

[Moruya]

3m high in Ayuttaya?

How tall were those dikes? (positively Amazonian he says).

[Thaddeus]

Team Group's managing director, Chawalit Chantararat, said a team of experts had used a model based on last year's volume of water in order to make this prediction.

And if we don't get last year's volume of water?

[ratcatcher]

"He added that areas in the west of Bangkok will be flooded this year such as the area between Khlong 13 canal and Nakhon Nayok's Ongkharak district as well as areas between Bangkok's Nong Chok district and Chachoengsao province's Bang Nam Prieo district. Other districts in Chachoengsao province will also be submerged as the government is planning to divert water to these areas. "

More geographically incorrect information.

Klong 13 runs south from klong Rapheepat in Nong Suea district of Pathum Thani, which is adjacent to Ongharak district, Nakhon Nayok northeast of Bangkok.

Chachoengsao province is east of Bangkok.

Not sure where they mean "west of Bangkok"?

[Thaddeus]

Chachoengsao province is east of Bangkok.

Not sure where they mean "west of Bangkok"?

They were probably holding the map the wrong way up.

[CaptHaddock]

I don't think there will be a flood this year in Central Thailand. Last year was a La Nina year which causes excess rainfall in the Western Pacific including SE Asia. But La Ninas do not come two years in a row, which is why the Thai Meterological Department is predicting normal rainfall levels for the rainy season, except in the South:

http://www.tmd.go.th/en/

However, rainfall year to date is up in the North and Northeast. So, it's still a ball game.

http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=thailand%20monthly%20weather%20summary%20may%202012&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CFkQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.tmd.go.th%2Fprograms%255Cuploads%255CyearlySummary%255CMay%25202012.pdf&ei=yfrjT-2ME8_QrQeknZj7CA&usg=AFQjCNFDue_cYMJzo0fsXkCPpGbenAu5MQ

[swillowbee]

... the political ramifications could be significant ... two possible cases, neither of which are particularly hopeful ... in one worst case, the flood victims clamor even more loudly for Toxin's return to save them ... in another worse case, Toxin senses he is losing the support of the flood victims and steps-up the controntation in a desperate attempt to return before his political base abandons him.

[Farang0tang]

Chachoengsao province is east of Bangkok.

Not sure where they mean "west of Bangkok"?

They were probably holding the map the wrong way up.

because then the water flow back up to the North.

[h90]

3m high in Ayuttaya?

How tall were those dikes? (positively Amazonian he says).

I think last year they had 2+ meter, so 1 meter more.

[h90]

Chachoengsao province is east of Bangkok.

Not sure where they mean "west of Bangkok"?

They were probably holding the map the wrong way up.

That would explain many things

[h90]

... the political ramifications could be significant ... two possible cases, neither of which are particularly hopeful ... in one worst case, the flood victims clamor even more loudly for Toxin's return to save them ... in another worse case, Toxin senses he is losing the support of the flood victims and steps-up the controntation in a desperate attempt to return before his political base abandons him.

I can almost hear it: The Amart make the floods because the don't like the poor. Suthep made the floods (no explanation how they can do that magic) because they can't win the election blablabla

[sportsman69]

Amazing !!! Not !!

YS said that there will be no floods, and now we learn that there will be 3 meters of water in Ayutthaya??? Where did she get her infos, if she got and understood any?

2 days ago, there was a thread saying that government is loosing race against floods, so nothing to make us feel a bit confident here

[.........] This prediction was made by consulting company Team Group, which presented its findings at the "Knowing and Fighting against Flooding" seminar held yesterday at Bangkok's Emerald Hotel.

Don't know who, what, where or why, but I guess it was a sumptuous luncheon with free flow. Then they announce the findings which are as always totally contradictory to the acts.

[HUAHIN62]

The question is what these guys can gain from writting such a nonsense story. Firstly last year the average rainfall was 1800 mm and the projection for this year is 1500 mm. 300 mm doesn't sound much but over the whole country it's billions of cubic metres. Secondly the Dems neglected to drain the dams last year, this year it was done. Thirdly the retentions areas will absorb much of the water. These areas are a good idea as this is the natures way prevent flooding. The consultants used a simmulation program, but any computer program = GIGA = garbage in garbage out.