Thailand Sees Potential As Regional Hub With Future Hi-Speed Train

[planr]

When pigs fly.

As far as the Shawshank quote, it's not being obtuse, it's being realistic. Which obviously is a trait sorely lacking in Thailand.

How can Thailand be the hub of hi-speed rail when they don't even have one, nor do they design, engineer or manufacture any hi-speed rail equipment?

What is hard to comprehend is your belief that this will actually come to pass.

If the government really wants it to happen and makes the project the center of an economic development proposal rather than an expensive piece of infrastructure, it could be hugely beneficial to the country. A great example is the domestic auto industry. Until the late 1980s, the industry produced less than 100,000 vehicles per year on average, now its on pace to top 2 million this year. At present the industry directly employs 400,000 people (manufacturing) and indirectly employs at least another 300,000 in terms of raw material suppliers and other supporting services like car dealerships, etc. The combined 700,000 figure is nothing to sneeze at.

One way to start building a rail manufacturing industry here would be to begin by supporting the idea from Khun Prapat, the former MRTA governor, who proposed established production facilities for mass transit rolling stock in Thailand. That way, domestic jobs are created, Chinese quality issues are avoided, and money is saved over buying German / French / Canadian / Japanese transets.

Great ... a Thai company doing a research on Thailand

and saying that Thailand has potential ...

What else are they suppose to say?

TDRI is a non-profit think-thank, not a for-profit private firm.

Right now, there are no plans, nor is there capital, to add cars to the BTS system to coping with rapidly increasing demand.

Sorry, but this is plain wrong. There are 35 additional cars coming starting this month to increase capacity on the Sukhumvit line (making 3-car sets into 4-car sets) and separate orders already for 4-car sets to add to the Silom line in the next year or two.

[Lannig]

Thailand is very politically unstable; Carrefour pulled out last year completely. A number of other companies have done likewise.

As much as I think there's quite some truth in what you wrote, citing Thailand's political instability as the reason for Carrefour to pull out is incorrect. Carrefour has pulled out from Thailand just like they are pulling out from several other countries right now and for the same reasons:

- they're losing money fast and they seriously need some cash, even in their home country (France) they're being eaten alive by competitors and losing market share. So they've decided to concentrate more on France and a few specific other countries

- it's their public policy to pull out from a country if they don't achieve a status of market leader within a given time frame (I could probably find a reference for this, I remember I've read a statement from them, but I can't be bothered right now). In Thailand they were hopelessly trailing Tesco (Lotus) and Casino (Big C)

As for the high-speed train... I don't hold a MBA but even put aside the enormous technical challenges, I don't see a viable business model for this in Thailand. It will be too expensive for the masses, not meshed enough to be a global alternative to road and if it doesn't carry massive amounts of freight it just won't pay for itself. They're making an even bigger mistake than we've made in France by concentrating only on the too expensive TGV and letting regional train lines and freight slowly die down.

Thailand would very, very much more need a solid, meshed network of normal passenger and freight trains that would be a real alternative to road transport, especially in these times of raising fuel costs.

Oh... and no comment on the "hub" laughable nonsense. We've missed the "IT hub" in the long list of "wannabe hubs" mentioned above. How can someone with a vague respect of himself still can utter something so gross?

Edited July 31, 2012 by Lannig

[jerrysteve]

Thailand Sees Potential As Regional Hub With Future Hi_Speed Train.

When they let conviced murderers that are sentenced to die by a Thai Court of Law out on BAIL,

People see Thailand as a REGIONAL BOOB!

[Boss]

It's the same old bla bla. Now they are spending all the money on populistic stuff like tablets to too young children with no internet and no educated teachers, discounts for first buy house, car. Credit cards for farmers and two extra holidays for the governmental employed staff on the last day of the Ramadan on dec 25th. Do the Buddhistic, Christian and muslim people really ask for this ???

Do they even bother to ask what 2 extra public holidays cost the Thai BNP ??? Bananas $^@Q9+->?$aarddrr

So where the money come from to this great project ???

[Cardiff1963]

Hope it works and gets lorries off the roads

[mac1970]

And it might be a good to ask .... where the money goes?

Study this, study that, buy this, buy that...who's company is doing this and that? Or friends or cousins or ...

It does not matter if things take time, as long as money flows from one pocket to the other. More HUB's and

plans equals more money

[noitom]

Thailand - the high speed hub.

[Radar501]

Typicaly negative TV responses.

A high speed train will be running in Thailand in the near future and it will continue Thailands status as a hub of the region.

Whats so dificult to comprehend?

To quote The Shawshank Redemption "Are you being deliberately obtuse?"

Thailand's ability to succeed in a major project like this without it being mired in set-backs and corruption is difficult to comprehend.

Or am I just being obtuse?

[Thai at Heart]

Well, there is a very practical problem with this.

To be a hub, you have to have spokes that reach the edge of the wheel. Are they going to offer tickets from Phnom Penh to Bangkok, Yangon to Bangkok, direct, or is everyone going to go through an immigration check? This isn't Europe you know, or does anyone really believe that Thailand within Asean 2015 is going to willy nilly allow millions of so called aliens to get into their hub without checks?

As for freight, last I heard, they were planning to open a port in Myanmar to offer shipment from the Indian ocean side of the peninsular to avoid going through Singapore. This would probably work alsofor most shipments coming into China from Europe, unload in Daiwei, and put it on the spoke of the wheel into China if the system ever got built.

So, yup, the hub may well actually end up in Daiwei, and the Thais can watch the containers flash across the countryside as they go North.

Edited August 1, 2012 by Thai at Heart

[Keesters]

Thailand ... the HUB of HUBS

HUBBA HUBBA don't you just love it.....

[Morakot]

Excellent! Scientists have discovered Thailand has potential!

Now, they are working on the part that deals with unforeseen factors.

[SuneeTH]

Bangkok is the epic center of ASEAN.

So Bangkok should be ASEAN capital, and its financial and logistic hub.

Very logical.

[Reasonableman]

Bangkok is the epic center of ASEAN.

So Bangkok should be ASEAN capital, and its financial and logistic hub.

Very logical.

Gotta agree with you there!

[Greer]

The implementation of high speed train services is inevitable. High speed movement of goods and people is desirable, in the same way as the changes that brought the Skytrain (by the way, the photo posted earlier is not the Skytrain, it is of the failed BERTS from Hopewell).

A lot of people do keep knocking Thailand, but unless the country actually tries to make an effort to implement something, when will we see change, and how would we see it?

How could the country ever improve if every time they want to try some new project, they are told not to bother; just continue to do nothing - the knockers are the ones who want to continue to see no change and no improvement.

I am realistic enough to know full well that there will be rampant corruption, there will be failure, and there will be problems, but look at some of the things everyone complained about in the past - the Skytrain - "it will never be finished, too much corruption", "no-one will ever use it because its too expensive for Thai people", etc...its hugely successful and very popular among tourists and locals - yes a lot of people cant afford it, but an awful lot can, and do!

Complaining that a project will be subject to corruption so should not be started, is like saying that if you work in the sun, you will get hot and sweaty... yes, it happens, its not going to change in a hurry, but in the meantime we still need these projects, so lets at least get something under way - the toll road system is another that is/wasplagued by corruption according to many reports, but what would you rather - pretend that the corruption was halted by not building the toll roads, and have the horrendous traffic problem being dozens of times worse, or at least know that yes - someone is getting rich, but in the meantime, our lives are easier too.

Its not a perfect world, but its the one we have, and if you think that corrupt practices are limited to Asia, you are walking around with a bag on your head.

Thailand needs these large projects, and despite the problems, the learning curve and the eventual benefits are worth it in the long run.

[Morakot]

The implementation of high speed train services is inevitable.

Why is it inevitable?

Edited August 1, 2012 by Morakot

[lungmi]

Bangkok is the epic center of ASEAN.

So Bangkok should be ASEAN capital, and its financial and logistic hub.

Very logical.

Bangkok or Dubai?

[rreddin]

"due to the country's oceanic geography linking Laos and China through Singapore"

If that's the kind of reasoning behind this project, god help us

That is precisely the thinking behind the project, only it was the Chinese doing the strategic thinking. There will be Chinese locomotives pulling Chinese trains carrying Chinese made goods over track laid and maintained by a Sino-Thai company. You can also expect a freight depot to be built at the point where the railway track and the proposed trans Vietnam/Loas/Thailand/Myanmar highway meet. That would enable Chinese freight to be transported by road to a deep water port on the Andaman Sea, where, coincidentally, there will be a Chinese naval base. All Thailand will be doing is footing the bill for laying and maintaining the track.

[rreddin]

Typicaly negative TV responses.

A high speed train will be running in Thailand in the near future and it will continue Thailands status as a hub of the region.

Whats so dificult to comprehend?

To quote The Shawshank Redemption "Are you being deliberately obtuse?"

The difficult part to comprehend is how you've somehow come to perceive Thailand as Southeast Asia's regional hub (you said "a hub", so perhaps you mean somewhat significant country?)?! You must not be paying attention. Thailand is very politically unstable; Carrefour pulled out last year completely. A number of other companies have done likewise. Singapore is home to most, if not all, multinational corporations operating in SE Asia. Everyone knows that. If you want to develop a career or work with large companies, you want to be in Singapore (if you want a bevy of prostitutes and the associated scams, then Thailand is paradise). SIngapore also has the region's only good universities, unless you're including Hong Kong. Right now, there are no plans, nor is there capital, to add cars to the BTS system to coping with rapidly increasing demand. If you think there will be a high-speed rail in Thailand in the next 10+ years, you're insanse. If you think there'll be one in 20+, you're an optimist. In that timeframe, even talking about this is practically absurd for most of TV's posters.

The reality is that China needs and wants these high speed rail links to get its manufactured goods to more convenient deep water ports at Singapore and on the Andaman Sea. However, I will not be surprised if the only links that are built are the ones linking the border at Nong Kai with Singapore and to the Myanmar border.

[Thai at Heart]

"due to the country's oceanic geography linking Laos and China through Singapore"

If that's the kind of reasoning behind this project, god help us

That is precisely the thinking behind the project, only it was the Chinese doing the strategic thinking. There will be Chinese locomotives pulling Chinese trains carrying Chinese made goods over track laid and maintained by a Sino-Thai company. You can also expect a freight depot to be built at the point where the railway track and the proposed trans Vietnam/Loas/Thailand/Myanmar highway meet. That would enable Chinese freight to be transported by road to a deep water port on the Andaman Sea, where, coincidentally, there will be a Chinese naval base. All Thailand will be doing is footing the bill for laying and maintaining the track.

Absolutely, the time it adds to export from South West China to Europe involving trucking to Huangpu, then transhipping in Singapore, is massively reduced if they can get the goods out through Myanmar. It has little or nothing to do with Thailand looking at this as some kind of hub for Thailand's benefit, and most likely they lines won't even stop at Laem Chabang port, just one going West to Daiwei and another going South to Singpore. Actually, what this all means for Laem Chabang in the long run is a little worrying, but TIT.

[Lannig]

It's the same old bla bla. Now they are spending all the money on populistic stuff like tablets to too young children with no internet and no educated teachers, discounts for first buy house, car. Credit cards for farmers and two extra holidays for the governmental employed staff on the last day of the Ramadan on dec 25th. Do the Buddhistic, Christian and muslim people really ask for this ???

Do they even bother to ask what 2 extra public holidays cost the Thai BNP ??? Bananas $^@Q9+->?$aarddrr

So where the money come from to this great project ???

That's something that keeps amazing me about Thailand, especially in these times of several EU countries going more or less bankrupt. Where does their money come from? So many people don't pay taxes at all and the one who do (like I did) don't pay much, really. So much business goes on tax-free in cash (not big business, but millions of purchases every day). Not to mention the big business that goes underground. With the himalayan amounts of money that get wasted by the various governments, how come Thailand isn't bankrupt yet, how come the Baht keeps being so strong?

They even have a public health system to pay for. It's not comparable to what we have here in EU, but it's better than what can be found in countries with the same level of development as Thailand.

I'm sure that a seasoned economist could explain this clearly. I can't. I guess that having almost no retirement pension system, no unemployment compensation scheme could be a start.

[Thai at Heart]

It's the same old bla bla. Now they are spending all the money on populistic stuff like tablets to too young children with no internet and no educated teachers, discounts for first buy house, car. Credit cards for farmers and two extra holidays for the governmental employed staff on the last day of the Ramadan on dec 25th. Do the Buddhistic, Christian and muslim people really ask for this ???

Do they even bother to ask what 2 extra public holidays cost the Thai BNP ??? Bananas $^@Q9+->?$aarddrr

So where the money come from to this great project ???

That's something that keeps amazing me about Thailand, especially in these times of several EU countries going more or less bankrupt. Where does their money come from? So many people don't pay taxes at all and the one who do (like I did) don't pay much, really. So much business goes on tax-free in cash (not big business, but millions of purchases every day). Not to mention the big business that goes underground. With the himalayan amounts of money that get wasted by the various governments, how come Thailand isn't bankrupt yet, how come the Baht keeps being so strong?

They even have a public health system to pay for. It's not comparable to what we have here in EU, but it's better than what can be found in countries with the same level of development as Thailand.

I'm sure that a seasoned economist could explain this clearly. I can't. I guess that having almost no retirement pension system, no unemployment compensation scheme could be a start.

Because relative to the extravagant waste in Europe, the Thai government actually spends relatively little a a percentage of the "official economy" and its borrowings were/are under control. Lets see if this changes enormously with the rice system. They take their share of VAT, excise, and employee tax contributions, although if they took what they should according to the law, there would be a large government tax surplus, of that I am absolutely sure.

[belg]

a question about the trains and stuff... when for example, goods will pass thailand, will they ask tax to let the goods go trough... let's say, mr x in singapore wants to buy a new BMW in china.... will it get taxed 307% in thailand for passing the border ? loooooooooooooooooooooool

thailand, hub of hubs

[chotthee]

The Oriental Express will soon do London-Bangkok, very likely.

[SantiSuk]

Better to spend the money on building regional hubs within the country rather than making the country a regional hub, which implies making Bangkok even more important.

I have nothing against Bangkok - like it so much I bought a condo there, but it is plainly ridiculous that the country's second city is smaller than a quarter of a million souls and after that you have to struggle to find towns larger than 150,000 people.

Bangkok will strangle (and thus will Thailand) if Thais do not develop a better balance between capital and regions. Say what you like about Pheu Thai - I am no apologist for them, but at least they seem to have an inkling of doing this - even if it is based on dislike of the Bangkok-based ruling elites.

[Unkomoncents]

The implementation of high speed train services is inevitable. High speed movement of goods and people is desirable, in the same way as the changes that brought the Skytrain (by the way, the photo posted earlier is not the Skytrain, it is of the failed BERTS from Hopewell).

A lot of people do keep knocking Thailand, but unless the country actually tries to make an effort to implement something, when will we see change, and how would we see it?

How could the country ever improve if every time they want to try some new project, they are told not to bother; just continue to do nothing - the knockers are the ones who want to continue to see no change and no improvement.

I am realistic enough to know full well that there will be rampant corruption, there will be failure, and there will be problems, but look at some of the things everyone complained about in the past - the Skytrain - "it will never be finished, too much corruption", "no-one will ever use it because its too expensive for Thai people", etc...its hugely successful and very popular among tourists and locals - yes a lot of people cant afford it, but an awful lot can, and do!

Complaining that a project will be subject to corruption so should not be started, is like saying that if you work in the sun, you will get hot and sweaty... yes, it happens, its not going to change in a hurry, but in the meantime we still need these projects, so lets at least get something under way - the toll road system is another that is/wasplagued by corruption according to many reports, but what would you rather - pretend that the corruption was halted by not building the toll roads, and have the horrendous traffic problem being dozens of times worse, or at least know that yes - someone is getting rich, but in the meantime, our lives are easier too.

Its not a perfect world, but its the one we have, and if you think that corrupt practices are limited to Asia, you are walking around with a bag on your head.

Thailand needs these large projects, and despite the problems, the learning curve and the eventual benefits are worth it in the long run.

Good points, but the Hopewell Project is proof of what can happen when corruption, mismanagement, and poor planning get out of hand. Suvarnabhumi has been in headlines dozens of times over the past several months because of structural problems that are quite likely the result of corruption and incompetence. All of Thailand's low-cost carriers had to move back to Don Muang despite the fact that Suvarnabhumi was supposed to centralize air traffic and Thailand and provide one convenient airport for use. The track record in Thailand makes a high-speed rail proposal look dubious, at best, and at worst a complete waste of government funds so that a few individuals at the top can collect off of it. There were initially supposed to be a number of crisscrossing BTS lines when the BTS project was first proposed. They all fell flat eventually because wealthy Thai landowners refused to give up plots of land so the project could go forward. These are the kinds of problems that make large infrastructure projects in Thailand very difficult (and they make infrastructure projects in Thailand different from similar initiatives in other developing countries like China). How are they going to overcome these kinds of challenges? Is there really a market in the short, medium, long-term? What are the total project costs? Who is behind this and who will provide the funds to get the project started? Will this be a traditional BOT (build-operate-transfer) scenario or is China going to put up the money for the rail links? If the Chinese do put up the funding, what will they want in return? Will Thais be able to accept the (financial/business) compromises that China will require in order to put up the finances for something like this? It all just seems ridiculous in the context of the fact that Thailand faces enormous challenges, not least of which are the rapidly increasing infrastructure demands in Bangkok.

[Morakot]

the country's second city is smaller than a quarter of a million souls and after that you have to struggle to find towns larger than 150,000 people.

To end your struggle!

#2 Nonthaburi: 262,158

#3 Pak Kret: 178,114

#4 Hat Yai: 158,007

Edited August 1, 2012 by Morakot

[Moruya]

Typicaly negative TV responses.

A high speed train will be running in Thailand in the near future and it will continue Thailands status as a hub of the region.

Whats so dificult to comprehend?

To quote The Shawshank Redemption "Are you being deliberately obtuse?"

There's no benefit to be given.

For a country that floats the concept of hubs around as frequently as a bowl of noodles is prepared, it has little credibility. For a nation that puts its woeful aviation industry forward as a regional it has even less. And to now promote its archaic rail system as a potential hub is hysterical. The rail system is of the same level of sophistication as the one one step up by the cowboys in the wild west and the rolling stock is one step up from steam.

While we're on about transport, the creaking bus system must be about the most dangerous in the world, the deep sea port can't contain anything deep and being a pedestrian or cyclist is like playing Russian roulette.

[Thai at Heart]

the country's second city is smaller than a quarter of a million souls and after that you have to struggle to find towns larger than 150,000 people.

To end your struggle!

#2 Nonthaburi: 262,158

#3 Pak Kret: 178,114

#4 Hat Yai: 158,007

Ah I see, number 2, North Bangkok, and #3 even a little bit further North Bangkok.

[chooka]

Is it that time of the month again?? Another HUB?? When will they ever STOP using the word HUB??

When they actually establish one hub. I think it's a little like registering a patent, get in 1st with the name Hub of "$##@" and then they think they own it. Ideas that never evolve.

Edited August 1, 2012 by chooka

[Moruya]

the country's second city is smaller than a quarter of a million souls and after that you have to struggle to find towns larger than 150,000 people.

To end your struggle!

#2 Nonthaburi: 262,158

#3 Pak Kret: 178,114

#4 Hat Yai: 158,007

Ah I see, number 2, North Bangkok, and #3 even a little bit further North Bangkok.

Nonthaburi town?

Pakkret is in Nonthaburi province