Future Population Structure Are The Keys To Achieving Sustainable Prosperity: Thailand

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Changes urged to 11th NESDB plan

Saowanee Nimpanpayungwong

The Nation

BANGKOK: -- Development of Thai citizens' quality of life and a clearer picture of Thailand's future population structure are the keys to achieving sustainable prosperity - and to achieve these goals, the National Economic and Social Development Board's 11th Plan will need to be adjusted, a hearing on the plan was told.

The 11th NESDB plan is due to be implemented at the end of this year and to be in effect through 2016.

Populist projects - the mainstay of the current government's policy platform - will weaken the country and individual citizens' economic stability and could eventually result in collapse like the one that befell Greece, former deputy prime minister Kosit Panpiemras said at the hearing in Bangkok. Kosit heads the Commission on Thailand Population Projection under the NESDB.

Looking at the economic aspects of population, the reduction in the age range of the working population will mean less interest from local and foreign investors, who foresee that older people will have less buying power than the younger ones, he said. By 2040, 32.1 per cent of people living in Thailand will be older than 60, while another 55.1 per cent of people will be in the working age range between 15 and 59, and 12.8 per cent will be under 14. The total estimated resident population is 63.9 million, he said.

The figure of 63.9 million has been reduced from a current estimate of 67 million, which includes not only Thais but also migrant workers, of whom there around 2.1 million in Thailand now. The number is expected to decline as a result of migration of workers between many countries, including those outside Asean, after the Asean Economic Community takes effect in 2015.

The plan still adheres to a philosophy associated with Thai people's habits and culture, Kosit said. "The majority of Thai people are by default under the influence of Thai norms which the Plan still follows, categorised as 'getting rich after getting old', while other [developed] countries' policies are the other way around: Their plans are aimed at making the most of their people, or 'getting rich before getting old'," he said.

NESDB secretary-general Arkhom Termphitthayaphaisit said the hearing would collect feedback from Kosit and other participants - who include NGO officials, activists and policy makers from both private and other government think-tanks - and analyse them, while the board was willing to readjust certain policies under the plan.

-- The Nation 2012-08-18

[MEL1]

Development of Thai citizens' quality of life and a clearer picture of Thailand's future population structure are the keys to achieving sustainable prosperity ... foresee that older people will have less buying power than the younger ones.

and to achieve these goals, the National Economic and Social Development Board's 11th Plan will need to be adjusted, a hearing on the plan was told.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

So a National Board's (Committee's) 11th guess is a mile off the mark, again.

Where do they get these people, to pay small fortunes to, for coming up with nothing?

This reads like a social study from a Grade 7 kid, except the G7 kid would have got it right in G5.

Amazing Ministries - the hub of useless information.

-mel.

[Orac]

Changes in demographics due to ageing populations and longer lifespans coupled with reduced fertility rates will probably be one of the biggest global issues of the next 50 years and not just in Thailand with countries competing for working age immigrants. Thailand is nowhere near in the worst position when you look at countries like China who, with their one child policy, are already starting to see signs of strain and more developed countries in Europe with large social security and socialised health schemes to fund.

[MEL1]

Changes in demographics due to ageing populations and longer lifespans coupled with reduced fertility rates will probably be one of the biggest global issues of the next 50 years and not just in Thailand with countries competing for working age immigrants. Thailand is nowhere near in the worst position when you look at countries like China who, with their one child policy, are already starting to see signs of strain and more developed countries in Europe with large social security and socialised health schemes to fund.

China doesn't have a complete 'one child' policy!

If you both come from parents as an only child, as a couple who marry, then you can have 2 children no ifs - even maybe 3 children - if you can afford to pay taxes for an extra child. Even if you come from a family of 2 children, and marry, if you are wealthy you may pay extra taxes for as many kids as you like!

-mel.

[Orac]

Changes in demographics due to ageing populations and longer lifespans coupled with reduced fertility rates will probably be one of the biggest global issues of the next 50 years and not just in Thailand with countries competing for working age immigrants. Thailand is nowhere near in the worst position when you look at countries like China who, with their one child policy, are already starting to see signs of strain and more developed countries in Europe with large social security and socialised health schemes to fund.

China doesn't have a complete 'one child' policy!

If you both come from parents as an only child, as a couple who marry, then you can have 2 children no ifs - even maybe 3 children - if you can afford to pay taxes for an extra child. Even if you come from a family of 2 children, and marry, if you are wealthy you may pay extra taxes for as many kids as you like!

-mel.

Maybe so but the figures/projections are not good for China:

In 2009 there were 167 million over-60s, about an eighth of the population. By 2050 there will be 480 million, while the number of young people will have fallen.

and

In 2000 there were six workers for every over-60. By 2030, there will be barely two.

Source: http://www.guardian....eing-population

[Mosha]

Changes in demographics due to ageing populations and longer lifespans coupled with reduced fertility rates will probably be one of the biggest global issues of the next 50 years and not just in Thailand with countries competing for working age immigrants. Thailand is nowhere near in the worst position when you look at countries like China who, with their one child policy, are already starting to see signs of strain and more developed countries in Europe with large social security and socialised health schemes to fund.

China doesn't have a complete 'one child' policy!

If you both come from parents as an only child, as a couple who marry, then you can have 2 children no ifs - even maybe 3 children - if you can afford to pay taxes for an extra child. Even if you come from a family of 2 children, and marry, if you are wealthy you may pay extra taxes for as many kids as you like!

-mel.

Another way round it is fertility pills

[Ricardo]

Development of Thai citizens' quality of life and a clearer picture of Thailand's future population structure are the keys to achieving sustainable prosperity ... foresee that older people will have less buying power than the younger ones.

and to achieve these goals, the National Economic and Social Development Board's 11th Plan will need to be adjusted, a hearing on the plan was told.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

So a National Board's (Committee's) 11th guess is a mile off the mark, again.

Where do they get these people, to pay small fortunes to, for coming up with nothing?

This reads like a social study from a Grade 7 kid, except the G7 kid would have got it right in G5.

Amazing Ministries - the hub of useless information.

-mel.

"would have got it right in G5"

Well perhaps, if the kid was in an international-school, not a current Thai one. Otherwise do even Grade-7s understand this sort of thing ?

I guess there is a need, for this kind of big-picture planning, it sets the back-ground for all sorts of government & business long-term strategic-planning, for example the future market for homes/support-services for the elderly, or the need to increase the spending-power of the elderly by increasing the state-pension where it can be afforded.

Also for forecasting the number of places which will be required, in schools and universities, or to track the movement of the population from rural to urban areas, which will impact on major infrastructure-plans.

But the idea that the poo-yais of the NESDB are somehow in control through these plans, and that everything will work out fine because their documents say they will, or that anyone is actually basing the country's future-development on them, well perhaps in 'cloud-cuckoo-land' but not likely in the real world.

I hope that I'm wrong.

[PeaceBlondie]

Thai Fertile 1980-1985 2.95 1985-1990 2.30 1990-1995 1.99 1995-2000 1.77 2000-2005 1.68 2005-2010 1.63 2010-2015 1.57 2015-2020 1.51 2020-2025 1.47 2025-2030 1.44 2030-2035 1.40 2035-2040 1.38 2040-2045 1.37 2045-2050 1.35

[seminomadic]

Wrong again. The key to Thailand's development potential and improvement in Thai people's quality of life involves tackling the traffic problem which is slowly choking the urban centers to death rather than the 'mai ben rai' attitude towards it what with this dunce in office incentivizing people to buy cars.

Tackling, I said, not putting a bandaid on a sliced artery, which is what the MRT and BTS extensions are.

[Ricardo]

Perhaps the NESDB might do better, and save some money, if they sub-contracted this sort of forecasting/planning to Singapore, and made forecasts every decade-or-so, rather than just every few years. These trends can't change much within a few years, can they ?

And am I the only one to notice, that the guy collecting leaves for burning-in-April (or better composting), has stacked the blocks in his wall one-on-top-of-the-other, which is inherently weaker, rather than staggering them to produce a stronger structure ?

What on earth does this photo have to do with macro-economic forecasting ?

Amazing Thailand !

Edited August 18, 2012 by Ricardo

[h90]

Changes in demographics due to ageing populations and longer lifespans coupled with reduced fertility rates will probably be one of the biggest global issues of the next 50 years and not just in Thailand with countries competing for working age immigrants. Thailand is nowhere near in the worst position when you look at countries like China who, with their one child policy, are already starting to see signs of strain and more developed countries in Europe with large social security and socialised health schemes to fund.

But imagine the strains on China WITHOUT the one child policy......They would be double of them and half wouldn't have enough food....destroying the nature complete...

[PeaceBlondie]

Thai Fertile

1980-1985 2.95

1985-1990 2.30

1990-1995 1.99

1995-2000 1.77

2000-2005 1.68

2005-2010 1.63

2010-2015 1.57

2015-2020 1.51

2020-2025 1.47

2025-2030 1.44

2030-2035 1.40

2035-2040 1.38

2040-2045 1.37

2045-2050 1.35