Chances Of A Civil War Within The Next Year In Thailand?

[chiangmaikelly]

Would not expect civil war.

I would bet on things turning ugly, and probably worse than 2010, if the current mafia running the country railroad through a constitutional change away from the current status quo where senior judicary appointments are approved by the Monarchy as the people's independant safeguard. If the fugitive convicted criminal in Dubai tries that then the Army will step in. Apart from that the

Army will pretty well stay out of politics even to the extent of the criminals running the country to bankruptcy.

Ya the Army pretty much stays out of things. How many coups in the past few years? 18 I think. That's not very many is it?

So do the percentages on how many years per coup. Then look at how many coups in the last 15 years. One is it? And the reasons why for that one. And then listen to what the current General is saying which is no different to what the previous was saying. Not rocket science at all with a little thought applied.

I agree. How many coups has the British or Australian army had in the past few years? The Thai army has shown a lot of restraint.

[otherstuff1957]

18 coups from 1932 to 1992 - that's one coup every 3.3 years. Since then 1 coup in 20 years.

But if you're on a roll, don't let the facts stand in your way.

[chiangmaikelly]

18 coups from 1932 to 1992 - that's one coup every 3.3 years. Since then 1 coup in 20 years.

But if you're on a roll, don't let the facts stand in your way.

So are you. Tell us how many in Japan, Korea, Singapore and Australia since 1932.

[waza]

18 coups from 1932 to 1992 - that's one coup every 3.3 years. Since then 1 coup in 20 years.

But if you're on a roll, don't let the facts stand in your way.

So are you. Tell us how many in Japan, Korea, Singapore and Australia since 1932.

yes they are a good measure for Thailand

[chiangmaikelly]

18 coups from 1932 to 1992 - that's one coup every 3.3 years. Since then 1 coup in 20 years.

But if you're on a roll, don't let the facts stand in your way.

So are you. Tell us how many in Japan, Korea, Singapore and Australia since 1932.

yes they are a good measure for Thailand

1932 check the GNP's of Singapore, Korea, Taiwan and Thailand. And then tell me what the difference was in the past 80 years.

[Roadman]

Would not expect civil war.

I would bet on things turning ugly, and probably worse than 2010, if the current mafia running the country railroad through a constitutional change away from the current status quo where senior judicary appointments are approved by the Monarchy as the people's independant safeguard. If the fugitive convicted criminal in Dubai tries that then the Army will step in. Apart from that the

Army will pretty well stay out of politics even to the extent of the criminals running the country to bankruptcy.

Ya the Army pretty much stays out of things. How many coups in the past few years? 18 I think. That's not very many is it?

So do the percentages on how many years per coup. Then look at how many coups in the last 15 years. One is it? And the reasons why for that one. And then listen to what the current General is saying which is no different to what the previous was saying. Not rocket science at all with a little thought applied.

I agree. How many coups has the British or Australian army had in the past few years? The Thai army has shown a lot of restraint.

What the bejesus has other countries governance got to do with Thailand?

And yes with one coup in 21 years the current That Army is showing a lot of constraint?

[chiangmaikelly]

Ya the Army pretty much stays out of things. How many coups in the past few years? 18 I think. That's not very many is it?

So do the percentages on how many years per coup. Then look at how many coups in the last 15 years. One is it? And the reasons why for that one. And then listen to what the current General is saying which is no different to what the previous was saying. Not rocket science at all with a little thought applied.

I agree. How many coups has the British or Australian army had in the past few years? The Thai army has shown a lot of restraint.

What the bejesus has other countries governance got to do with Thailand?

And yes with one coup in 21 years the current That Army is showing a lot of constraint?

Thailand has had 18 coups other countries in the world and in SEA have not. Other countries were under much the same stresses as Thailand and made do without coups and relied on an elected or appointed governments. Thailand is one of a few countries who has been controlled by the military for the past 80 years. The bejesus is that it is impossible to evaluate a thing without comparing that thing to other things. Singapore has done a very good job. Thailand has done an OK job. Burma has done an awful job. Get it?

[sotsira]

Civil war in the next year? i would say no.

But why has the OP put a time frame of a year?

What i do see and hear is that the country is politically divided together with

an army that controls the country that also is or could become divided too.

So the recipe is in place with a possible civil war if things don't change in the future.

[JurgenG]

18 coups from 1932 to 1992 - that's one coup every 3.3 years. Since then 1 coup in 20 years.

But if you're on a roll, don't let the facts stand in your way.

So are you. Tell us how many in Japan, Korea, Singapore and Australia since 1932.

Thaksin is a great admirer of countries likes Singapore and Japan and always maintained excellent relation with them.

He was the only one who were able to lead a stable government that went to its term.

Thaksin doesn't think that an army coup is a solution to a political problem, unless some of his direct rivals.

I think we are on something here ...

[JeffreyMcCollum]

0%

[Ricardo]

Would not expect civil war.

I would bet on things turning ugly, and probably worse than 2010, if the current mafia running the country railroad through a constitutional change away from the current status quo where senior judicary appointments are approved by the Monarchy as the people's independant safeguard. If the fugitive convicted criminal in Dubai tries that then the Army will step in. Apart from that the

Army will pretty well stay out of politics even to the extent of the criminals running the country to bankruptcy.

Ya the Army pretty much stays out of things. How many coups in the past few years? 18 I think. That's not very many is it?

One in the past twenty years, which is a vast improvement on the old days, so low chance of a coup at present, unless the BB really wants to provoke one, which would be hard to understand with his own sister in-charge.

Also the 2006-coup, while peaceful, was not a notable success, and returned power to elections on a reasonable time-frame, which was good.

Civil war ditto, I don't see great animosity between the South and the North-East/West, and also don't see who it would benefit financially, to the point where it would pay to have a war. The oil is offshore, not in Isaan or the South, and there isn't that much (on present estimates AFAIK).

But I wouldn't discount heightened-uncertainty, when the big unwanted event takes place, hope that is long-delayed !

Edited August 24, 2012 by Ricardo

[harrry]

Thailand has had many coups but in most (NOT ALL) cases they were relatively benign, They usually were short lived regarding handing power back to a largely elected government. Some other countries have had less political turmoil because there it was suppressed more either by the military government or by the entrenched political leadership.

[PREM-R]

Civil war? No Chance. The "those that have" and held in awe by the "those that have naught" so in that regard this will never happen. Will there be a coup soon? If it floods again, and Thaksin comes back without doing some stir, then about a month later there will be a coup, elections 6 months later, a democrat win, a riot and some well financed protests, more elections, a coup..... one big circle. I think February / March will be coup time.

What ever makes you think that the Democrats would win an election?, they have been rejected at the ballot box at every election for the past 20 years,

[Jingthing]

I don't think it is a high chance at all. But I don't think it is NO chance either. It is in the realm of the possible, though very unlikely.

[JcCarlin]

I declare a state of Lawlessness. ... YEHAAAAA here come the cowboys!

[Tchooptip]

And the baht back to its "normal" level of 70 per Pound.

at least a positive thought on the subject thanks!

[cdnvic]

Some people couldn't keep comments about the Monarchy out of this. They have been removed, and this topic is closed.