Which Currency Is A Safe Haven

[Litlos]

I used to have an account with Citibank in Aust and they would send me a newsletter every now and again that used to have forward looking predictions on the AUD vs USD, generally pretty accurate. I once in about 2008 had an opportunity to speak to one of their currency guru's and he correctly predicted the AUD going to parity with the USD and the timeframe. Unfortunately the rest of their business was not up to scratch so I closed the account.

A couple of things on the China area as well as that is likely to have a big impact on the AUD. I was reading an article on the Chinese government and how their economy is going to really slow down, but they are artificially holding it up until the change of leader which is due shortly, hard call on whether this is accurate but with the Chinese all about not loosing face it could be a real scenario. There was something else about 6 months ago in a similar vein.

For the iron ore prices there is plenty of reading about how the Chinese are peed off with the trio of BHP, Rio and Vale with their pricing antics. I also hold shares in an Australian company called Sundance Resources ASX:SDL. They are in the process of being bought out by Hanlong mining of China. The SDL group has a major iron ore discovery in Cameroon and initially it was proposed to share a rail line and port with the Chinese discovery in nearby Congo, instead they are buying out SDL. So yes the Chinese are definitely looking to secure their own sources of raw materials and cut out the western suppliers, or at the least bring them under control. The wages etc in Africa are tiny compared to Aust and the fact that the Chinese will use their own ships to transport the ore will make it viable.

I have been doing my numbers a bit more and they look like this as a rough distribution of net worth at present - THB 5% USD 10%, AUD 85% . So I am really exposed to any falls in the AUD. These assets are spread across mutual funds, cash, equities and housing. Nothing specific in precious metals, though some of the shares are gold miners and I have had the gains that way.

Thinking about what has been said so far is it practical to buy some form of gold/silver certificate in say CHF? Just thinking outside the box a bit on that one, and if the answer is yes where would be a good place to look at procuring this. Any hints on websites would help me to do the research.

Cheers

Edit for spelling

Edited October 12, 2012 by Litlos

[how241]

The Aussie $ will rock on... at unprecedented high levels....

Could be right. They have things to sell that the world needs and uses.

[churchill]

It's Getting More Expensive To Sit On 'Safe Haven' Currencies

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/bny-state-street-to-charge-on-krone-franc-deposits-2012-10#ixzz294POnbbk

[Naam]

It's Getting More Expensive To Sit On 'Safe Haven' Currencies

Read more: http://www.businessi...0#ixzz294POnbbk

The Danish kroner and Swiss franc are often seen as safe havens assets, or low volatility assets that don't lose value.

Demand for these currencies has been huge as many investors flee the euro.

= business "insider" rubbish²

during the last twenty-three years the high/low difference DKK (Danish Crown) vs. €UR was 0.8% (low 7.4152 / high 7.4784).

the same applies, albeit during a much shorter period to CHF €UR since the peg.

but "hats off" to Churchill who seems to be the most qualified picker of rubbish published by obscure media with fancy names. i am counting his #6 pick during the last several weeks.

[Naam]

Rowdy100, on 2012-10-09 22:43:47, said:

The Aussie $ will rock on... at unprecedented high levels...

rumour has it that by Christmas Eve 2049 one AUD will buy 729 Cowrie Shells. some experts disagree and forecast lower rates, placing the Roo Dollar in the range of CSH 699-711.

whom to believe?

[farang000999]

the notion of a safe haven currency is quite silly. you are either speculating on currency fx or you are in cash because you are conservative or because you are worried about the markets, in which case, why not be in several different currencies? there are a zillion currency etfs.

eventually the politicians are going to give in, or they are going to be unelected and we are going to have some real jobs stimulus/money printing. the academic and banking communities are clearly in favor of this and the politicians can only fight them and the public for so long.

debts are much easier to pay when your currency is devalued and the government has hired millions of workers,

[yoshiwara]

Looking for a 'safe haven' is flawed in its definition. It implies that one should buy into that currency at all times whether up or down. The concept is equally flawed with gold (which is where the idea probably comes from). The problem with gold and cash is that they generate little income. If you take the interest eg in AUD then you are locked in for the period of that deposit. Not a bad thing in itself but....

[damo]

Yap donut stones.

Seriously, Gold XAU/USD.

I have the same feeling about shorting the AUD. The FX rate is killing exporters. RBA is useless, banks unregulated laughing thier <deleted> off. Fuel price crippling alot of Aussies allready with the AUD > 1$ USD. China is the bottom line with our resourses boom and its flow-on including the domestic housing market. I'm thinking along the lines of getting cash over to LOS very soon and securing some nice land, (wife I meant).

AUD is oversold anyway. fuc_k predictions, scalp the noise.