The Condo Bubble

[thenervoussurgeon]

The problem with many condo blocks ,especially at the lower end is that what will they be like in 10/15 years time ,loads that i have seen look terrible and i for one would never live there ,obviously there are some good condo blocks ,but what happens when you want to sell?

[chiangmaikelly]

15 million Baht for 100 sqm in my vicinity (BKK). Crappy building standards made by cement and cheap Burmese labor. Cheapest kitchen, cheapest floor, smelly bathroom.

And 90+% empty building since more than a year.

Good business for the developer, bad for all the silly investors.

if its 90% empty, how would it be good business for the developer?

It's all sold in the hope of high rentals and/or even higher resale prices. Wet dreams of the clueless investors.

Haha I love these definite answers..

I bought a condo for 4.5M close to Thonglor sold it for 7.5M three years later. The condo I currently live in I was paying rent of 60 000bht bought it for 11M it's been two years now I am saving 6%, the building is full, and a similar unit recently sold for 15M. I didn't predict the invasion of russians in Pattaya but those who did will have easily doubled their money if they bought condos close to beach road.

Will it last forever? Of course not but like any market it's about when you get in and when you get out, some people will get burned but in the meantime there is also a lot of us "clueless investors" making great returns

Gee don't tell the Thai experts in town for two weeks and selling short.

[chiang mai]

Bangkok condo may seem high and close to bubble burst, but again is depending on location if we consider to rent it or sell. Chances of losing in say 5-10 years may be 10-20% from purchase price but consider possible value increase 30-50% on possible side. I bought a condo "again" in CM near to new Platinum mall and future central festival mall, looking for rental return 6% and I'll not hesitate to rent it for min of 3% which is much higher return as compare to fix deposit in bank.

I get 3.25% interest on my Thai bank account.

If I moved it to Australia, I would get 5%

What bank are you using?

Bank profits ..... interesting concept.

In Thailand when a bank forecloses on a property they won't sell the property for less than their loan value. The house sits empty until it falls down, but a loss is never recorded, and the value of the wrecked house is never reduced. I can see housing estates where 25% of the houses are deserted wrecks and have no value, but the bank books still record them at full price.

The ratio of delinquent loan to total loan fell to 2.0%, with the reduction noticeable in consumer loan.

Performance of Thai banking system first quarter 2012.

Source, please! I for one don't believe that only 2% of retail loans are non-performing.

[chiangmaikelly]

Bangkok condo may seem high and close to bubble burst, but again is depending on location if we consider to rent it or sell. Chances of losing in say 5-10 years may be 10-20% from purchase price but consider possible value increase 30-50% on possible side. I bought a condo "again" in CM near to new Platinum mall and future central festival mall, looking for rental return 6% and I'll not hesitate to rent it for min of 3% which is much higher return as compare to fix deposit in bank.

I get 3.25% interest on my Thai bank account.

If I moved it to Australia, I would get 5%

What bank are you using?

Bank profits ..... interesting concept.

In Thailand when a bank forecloses on a property they won't sell the property for less than their loan value. The house sits empty until it falls down, but a loss is never recorded, and the value of the wrecked house is never reduced. I can see housing estates where 25% of the houses are deserted wrecks and have no value, but the bank books still record them at full price.

The ratio of delinquent loan to total loan fell to 2.0%, with the reduction noticeable in consumer loan.

Performance of Thai banking system first quarter 2012.

Source, please! I for one don't believe that only 2% of retail loans are non-performing.

http://www.bot.or.th...BOTDefault.aspx

Or you could google Performance of Thai banking system first quarter 2012

The Bank of Thailand has published a report on the performance of the Thai banking sector in second-quarter 2012, finding significant increases in lending and profits. A steadily declining rate of non-performing loans is also demonstrated.

The ratio of gross non-performing loans to total lending showed further decreases over the quarter, falling by 10 basis points to 2.5%. The ratio has been falling steadily over the past few years, from 7.8% in 2007.

Now do you believe?

Edited October 21, 2012 by chiangmaikelly

[harryfrompattaya]

Depends a bit what type of condo you’re talking about.

I’m under the impression that the majority of condo’s being build are for the lower end Thai market.

Plenty of demand there and still a long way to go before Thailand reaches unemployment levels such as in Europe which would make people default on their payment.

Unemployment in Thailand DO NOT EXIST...I saw an The Economist survey 2 months ago stating TH unemployment at 0.5%!!!!

Talk about the wages. and the percentage of the people working to total population. Is working bar or street walking working?

I have a relative living in Harlem part of New York He claims he has been working for 64 years stealing and robbing is he working according to the Economist.

Edited October 21, 2012 by harryfrompattaya

[chiang mai]

Now do you believe?

I sense sleight of hand somewhere along the line:

NPL = 262.8 bill (2.6%) whilst the entire banking sector profits stand at (2Q12) - 49.1 bill. So NPL are equal to entire years banking sector profits, hmm!

Also, BOT reports loan/deposit ratio of 92.4% in August whilst the Asian banker reports that same ratio in September is 114%. So NPL is declining whilst the loan/depsoit ratio is increasing, significantly, unlikely I would have thought. (http://www.thaivisa....ailand-bubbles/)

Do I believe? Probably not either the message or the detail, my guess is that NPL is being hived off and classified elsewhere.

This is a bit like the current account issue, how much debt does Thailand carrry. Why non and they even have substantial holding of foriegn reserves. But dig a little deeper and we find the reclassified and oustanding IMF loans that are now owned by the BOT, 1.3 trillion!.

Edited October 21, 2012 by chiang mai

[davejones]

And you have lived in Thailand how long?

What's that supposed to mean? No country is exempt from the law of supply and demand. No group is exempt from the pain of getting overleveraged.

I've lived on this globe for 66 years and I've studied history. The US has had two major crashes in just the last 100 years, and it has been thought to have a strong economy. Both times the crashes came after great booms.

Look all over the world. We're in a global recession that many call a depression. China is in a world of hurts.

What law of economics makes Thailand exempt from the price paid by excesses?

I'll be happy to be the first to tell you that I told you so.

For a start, there isn't a global recession. The world economy is actually growing. So if you don't even know basic facts like that, then it will probably make people wonder about what else you have to say. The Asian economy is growing quite well, as is China.

You're right that no economy is exempt from the laws of supply and demand and property can bust anywhere. But you obviously don't realise that things in Thailand are a lot different from the US. In the US lenders have been lending to people that have no hope whatsoever of paying the money back. That just doesn't happen here. Also, there are a lot more cash buyers than in the US. That doesn't mean that property prices here won't crash. But it does mean that they won't crash as easily as in the US. If you have millions of people who have bought property that can't pay the mortgages, then a crash is inevitable. When there are many cash buyers and next to no unemployment, then there aren't so many people defaulting on mortgages. And family are a lot more likely to help out with mortgage payments here than they are in the US. There is a huge difference between the economies of Thailand and the US which you just don't seem to grasp.

I think prices here are more likely to stagnate for years than to crash. There is lots of building going on, but that can be seen as a good thing because it keeps prices down and more affordable for the population. Despite what many people in the west seem to think, property isn't all about investment and continuing price rises. For most people, property is a home. They buy a property because they want somewhere to live and see ownership as a better bet than rental. If anyone mentions buying a condo, others on this forum always talk about whether it's a good investment or not. But if you are buying a property of your own long-term use, then whether you make money on it or not is irrelevant. I haven't bought any property here yet, but when I do I will by in an area that I want to live long-term, and I won't care if I pay over the odds. A great home in a great location is more important to me than whether I can sell at a profit at some point in the future. I might never sell, so whether the prices rises is completely irrelevant. As long as I have a great home, that will be all that matters to me.

[chiangmaikelly]

Depends a bit what type of condo you’re talking about.

I’m under the impression that the majority of condo’s being build are for the lower end Thai market.

Plenty of demand there and still a long way to go before Thailand reaches unemployment levels such as in Europe which would make people default on their payment.

Unemployment in Thailand DO NOT EXIST...I saw an The Economist survey 2 months ago stating TH unemployment at 0.5%!!!!

Talk about the wages and the price of rice and cars.

Wages are up. Rice exports are 10% of GNP. Auto business is 10% of GNP. Tourism is 10% of GNP. And it is getting hard to find Burmese to take care of my lawn. Thanachart Bank booked over 30 billion baht in car loans in the first quarter.

[davejones]

There are lots of Thais with serious money and/or are able to get high loans. And some more foreign investors (not so much Farang, but Chinese).

And those people believe 2 mantras:

1. Prices in Thailand always go up.

I have heard it from Thais. When I mentioned the bubble crash in US or even Hongkong, I hear "yes, but this is Thailand, prices always go up".

2. You can rent out your property for 7-8% p.a.

So the basic believe is, you can get rental income of 7% and say 5% property increase per year which makes roughly 12% per year. Not bad, compared with low interest bank accounts.

The only problem with that dream: it doesnt work out. Of course, everybody knows some "friend" who bought 10 years ago and made some serious profit since then. So we can make it too....

Finally, all those "12%" investments stay empty, they have to pay for loans and maintanace fees, nobody rents and nobody buys (people buy new condos).

Instead of lowering rents or selling with a loss, they just keep the place empty and/or increase prices for the loss they have already. This is how it works in Thailand and that's a reason the bubble will not burst soon. But some day it will.

I totally agree with this, as it is exactly what I have seen in my time here. I once offered 25,000 for a condo that was advertised at 30,000 and had been empty for over a year. The owner said no. So rather than get 300,000 a year rent from me, they get nothing. Same with properties for sale. I know a condo that was on sale 2 years ago for 5.4m. A year later they put the price up to 5.7m. A year later it's still empty and unsold. But they probably tell their friends that it's increased in value from 5.4m to 5.7m. It's probably worth around 4m.

[chiang mai]

Depends a bit what type of condo you’re talking about.

I’m under the impression that the majority of condo’s being build are for the lower end Thai market.

Plenty of demand there and still a long way to go before Thailand reaches unemployment levels such as in Europe which would make people default on their payment.

Unemployment in Thailand DO NOT EXIST...I saw an The Economist survey 2 months ago stating TH unemployment at 0.5%!!!!

Talk about the wages and the price of rice and cars.

Wages are up. Rice exports are 10% of GNP. Auto business is 10% of GNP. Tourism is 10% of GNP. And it is getting hard to find Burmese to take care of my lawn. Thanachart Bank booked over 30 billion baht in car loans in the first quarter.

You mean the Thanachart whose predecessor company was almost single handedly repsonsible for the Asian crisis of 1997, until its status got changed from a credit company to a bank! Funny they should extend such a large volume of loans!

[Chicog]

in CM if you don't buy in advance you're going to miss probably all the best view best floor and mountain side units, because so far they've just been selling all these out early.

But depositing in advance does open you to uncertainty....

I think of that every time I go down that road past Foxy Lady (keeping it on your left) and on the same side, look at what once appears to have been an attractive "investor opportunity".

[TommoPhysicist]

Wages are up. Rice exports are 10% of GNP. Auto business is 10% of GNP. Tourism is 10% of GNP. And it is getting hard to find Burmese to take care of my lawn. Thanachart Bank booked over 30 billion baht in car loans in the first quarter.

Volume of Thailand rice exports decreases 44% in first nine months this year

.....oh dear!

Edited October 21, 2012 by bonobo
changed font size and de-bolded

[davejones]

its not like in the west, there isnt a state system were if you dont work you go and sign on and get money

That's simply not true. If you work and become unemployed you will get money for 6 months. Not sure how much, but it's a percentage of the salary when you worked. I know people who got this money. But people tend to still look for a job as quickly as possible. It's not like the west where millions are happy not to work.

[davejones]

i wonder how many thai workers pay tax and are employed properly, paying tax ?

i dont think there would be to many,

you cant say the girls in the bar have a proper job, do they pay tax are they all registerd?

there is to many questions about thais being in work,

They don't pay tax because their income is too low. 10-20000 Baht is enough for a simple life, but not enough to buy a condo. Unless a boyfriend comes into the game of course.

On the other hand, there is a serious middle/upper class of people who do have money. It may be less than 10% of the population, but that still makes hundreds of thousands. That's what the bubble lives from.

20,000 baht is enough to buy a condo. Many, many people that earn 20,000 buy condos. Obviously they don't buy 5-10m baht condos in central Bangkok, but there are plenty of condos that Thais earning 20,000 can afford to buy.

[davejones]

Bangkok condo may seem high and close to bubble burst, but again is depending on location if we consider to rent it or sell. Chances of losing in say 5-10 years may be 10-20% from purchase price but consider possible value increase 30-50% on possible side. I bought a condo "again" in CM near to new Platinum mall and future central festival mall, looking for rental return 6% and I'll not hesitate to rent it for min of 3% which is much higher return as compare to fix deposit in bank.

Wrong. Bangkok Bank pays 3.25% interest on 5-month fixed deposit. In UK I get over 3% on a 1-year fixed rate savings account.

[chiang mai]

in CM if you don't buy in advance you're going to miss probably all the best view best floor and mountain side units, because so far they've just been selling all these out early.

But depositing in advance does open you to uncertainty....

I think of that every time I go down that road past Foxy Lady (keeping it on your left) and on the same side, look at what once appears to have been an attractive "investor opportunity".

Those units were very popular at one time although they were never available for purchase but instead could be rented from the owning company on a monthly basis, it's unclear to me why the company folded or what thw story was.

[HardenedSoul]

I don't know enough about the market here to say with any personal certainty the market will/won't crash but, looking back on two crashes in the UK, both occurred following unprecedented expansion in credit. In '89, lenders were offering deferred, low start mortgages to enable borrowers to afford overpriced property.

The crash came soon after

In 2007, the lenders were offering 125% mortgages, high income multiples and multiple applicant loans where 4 friends could club together to afford overpriced property.

The crash came soon after.

If lending criteria in Thailand has gotten anywhere near as reckless as those two UK examples then I'd be more inclined to say the end is not too far away and even more so if the instances of modestly-paid Thais buying new cars on huge finance deals is anything to go by. The fact that a lot of these poorly-constructed, poorly-located condo buildings are sprouting up like triffids doesn't inspire confidence.

[davejones]

Haha I love these definite answers..

I bought a condo for 4.5M close to Thonglor sold it for 7.5M three years later. The condo I currently live in I was paying rent of 60 000bht bought it for 11M it's been two years now I am saving 6%, the building is full, and a similar unit recently sold for 15M. I didn't predict the invasion of russians in Pattaya but those who did will have easily doubled their money if they bought condos close to beach road.

Will it last forever? Of course not but like any market it's about when you get in and when you get out, some people will get burned but in the meantime there is also a lot of us "clueless investors" making great returns

You bought in a great area, so you did well. But beware that "clueless investors" often make money in boom times but get completely wiped out in the following bust because they think the market will go up for ever and fail to leave the market in time. I don't think that will happen to you, but if if prices dropped 50%, then your current condo will be worth 7.5m, and you'll have made a 0.5m loss in total. That's not likely at all in a god area, but it very likely for people that bought in bad areas. I've seen it happen many times around the world. And if you are leveraged you could lose everything, and even been declared bankrupt. "clueless investors" are very prone to this outcome.

[davejones]

The problem with many condo blocks ,especially at the lower end is that what will they be like in 10/15 years time ,loads that i have seen look terrible and i for one would never live there ,obviously there are some good condo blocks ,but what happens when you want to sell?

The very simple answer is not to buy at the low end of the market. Always buy from a reputable developer and go see their past projects from years ago to see what they look like. I agree that most 1-15 year old condos and a right state, but I think standards have improved enormously over the last decade or so. The building I live in is around 7-8 years aold and looks almost perfect. It's very well maintained and almost completely full. It's very rare to see any units for sale or rent. Perfect location and almost all Thai owners.

[chiang mai]

Bangkok condo may seem high and close to bubble burst, but again is depending on location if we consider to rent it or sell. Chances of losing in say 5-10 years may be 10-20% from purchase price but consider possible value increase 30-50% on possible side. I bought a condo "again" in CM near to new Platinum mall and future central festival mall, looking for rental return 6% and I'll not hesitate to rent it for min of 3% which is much higher return as compare to fix deposit in bank.

Wrong. Bangkok Bank pays 3.25% interest on 5-month fixed deposit. In UK I get over 3% on a 1-year fixed rate savings account.

Not as of today. BBL's 5 month fix is now 3% and the best 1 year in the UK is 2.7%, notoce the trend.

[davejones]

Bangkok condo may seem high and close to bubble burst, but again is depending on location if we consider to rent it or sell. Chances of losing in say 5-10 years may be 10-20% from purchase price but consider possible value increase 30-50% on possible side. I bought a condo "again" in CM near to new Platinum mall and future central festival mall, looking for rental return 6% and I'll not hesitate to rent it for min of 3% which is much higher return as compare to fix deposit in bank.

Wrong. Bangkok Bank pays 3.25% interest on 5-month fixed deposit. In UK I get over 3% on a 1-year fixed rate savings account.

Not as of today. BBL's 5 month fix is now 3% and the best 1 year in the UK is 2.7%, notoce the trend.

Looks like I got in at the right time.

I think your strategy is well thought out, so don't think you will have a problem.

Too many people see this as a yes/no type of debate, but the fact is that it all depends on individual circumstances. I think someone with only 2m baht savings investing in a condo here would be made. But a multi-millionaire investing 5% of net worth wouldn't really be taling much risk at all. Even if they lost half their investment they'd only lose 2.5% of their net worth, so no big deal. Also depends if you're ever likely to need the money back in a hurry. Also your age. If I was 20, I'd buy a few condos because I'd be pretty sure they'd do well over 30-40 years. But for someone over 60 I'm not so sure. All depends on individual circumstances and their attitude to risk.

There seem to be all sorts on here. The completely reckless who buy overpriced condos in bad areas - they will surely lose money. Then there are the ones that have an opportunity to buy a great condo in a great area at a bargain price, but they turn it down because they are too frightened to take even a small risk - this is a big lost opportunity for them. Then you have the sensible investors who buy good condos in good locations at a good price - they are more likely to make money, although nothing in life is guaranteed.

So there is no right/wrong that suits every individual. Of course buying a condo is a bad bet fore some. But of course it's a good bet for others.

Some say there are better property investments in other countries. But this misses the point that it is easier to buy and manage a property that you live near. I would rather buy and investment condo in Thailand that I can manage myself than buy one in the US, where I'm unable to manage it or even visit it. Even if prospects were slightly better in USA, I'd still buy here.

But at the moment I'm really undecided. Bangkok property is massively oversupplied and seems way overpriced to me. Pattaya and Chiang Mai are both growing cities and I think there could be opportunities there. But in both cities it still means buying well in good areas.

[firestar]

You bought in a great area, so you did well. But beware that "clueless investors" often make money in boom times but get completely wiped out in the following bust because they think the market will go up for ever and fail to leave the market in time. I don't think that will happen to you, but if if prices dropped 50%, then your current condo will be worth 7.5m, and you'll have made a 0.5m loss in total. That's not likely at all in a god area, but it very likely for people that bought in bad areas. I've seen it happen many times around the world. And if you are leveraged you could lose everything, and even been declared bankrupt. "clueless investors" are very prone to this outcome.

Oh I agree, there is no such thing as certainty. My post was only in response to blanket-statements presented as absolute truths by some members here.

[TommoPhysicist]

Some say there are better property investments in other countries. But this misses the point that it is easier to buy and manage a property that you live near. I would rather buy and investment condo in Thailand that I can manage myself than buy one in the US, where I'm unable to manage it or even visit it. Even if prospects were slightly better in USA, I'd still buy here.

How easy would it be to manage a condo in Thailand if your VISA was refused, you were deported, or you could no longer meet the requirements to get a VISA? I would rather have my investments in a country where I had the right to live or could divest myself of in a hurry. A condo in Thailand meets neither of these requirements.

Edited October 21, 2012 by TommoPhysicist

[KhunMoo]

Ahh....Here we go again

Same guys repeating the same nonsense.

1. Not looking at the poor quality of the condo's here.

2. Not looking at the oversupply of condo's here, and that it's getting even worse as we speak...

3. Not looking at the poor management of most projects.

4. Not looking at the assembly of initial investors - and the lack of them, even before the project is ready to move in.

5. Not looking at the overrepresentation of the same bandits in many projects.

6. Not looking at the price pr. SQM - Compared to the general price-level here. 100-150.000/SQM is out of this world for BKK.

7. Not looking at how the banks don't mind lending, most people here more than 100% of value, and writing that it's 80%: The worst sign of them all.

8. I could keep on going...there are so many reasons, that investing in condo's in Thailand is a poor choice, if you are looking for an investment where risk is equivalent to the gain.

Another thing, if you look at the prospects and numbers that; BOT,Thai banks and developers provide, and eat it raw - you are nothing but an idiot, and diden't learn anything about Asia or Thailand while you where here...go home, before you one day loose everything. If people really think that those numbers, is something that shows economical security, you need to go back to university again. Almost anything from these institutions, should make people, bang their head in the wall...

And yes, of course you can make money on real estate in Thailand and every where else - I know several people making good money on real estate, especially in Pattaya.

Most of it is off-plan condo's, that are sold 3-4 times before the project is finished, with illegal set up's, illegal investment funds, no tax on gain etc.

Is that good factors for solid, sound investments? No...There are so many other things, that are so much better, safer, and with a better return.

So when looking at all the normal factors for a good investment, the numbers here does not add up - when it comes to real estate.

I could be funny, if anyone else participating in these debates, actually also have any relevant, solid, academic background to base their nonsense on? In solid, i mean, more that the crappy 3 years educations, that most in the financial sector, in the US have.

I'm talking min. 5 years university education, in economics + teaching/or publishing research in macroeconomics.

Anyone? Or is one just arguing with Cliff Clavin from Cheers?

It seems someone here, simply doesn't understand the basics in economics.

[Rancid]

It all depends on where you think the world economy is going. There are reputedly real estate bubbles in Australia and Canada yet at least in Australia's case it has been easing off rather than crashing. I look around and see the mess in Europe with Portugal, Spain, Ireland and Greece in serious financial trouble, and Italy and France also looking a bit suspect. Also the UK is far from a shing pillar of financial strength, and when China sneezes commodity countries all catch a cold. I see the US with trillions in debt and unemployment supposedly falling as food stamps and disability is on the rise, also a shift to part time workers, something seems a bit optimistic in their numbers. Many large companies there are also holding cash which is not a sign of optimism. China also has a serious real estate bubble, how long can the communists there string that Ponzi along?

In Thailand I see massive development going on all over the place, bank profits are up because they are handing out more loans. So what happens to Thailand when the West finally has to pay the piper? If full recession hits, many think it will actually be much worse, then what happens to demand for Thai exports? Who will buy the cars, electronics, who will be holidaying? This place has been hit before, what happens around Thailand directly affects Thailand. Toss the extra debt the government is currently taking on for their infrastructure bonus bonanza, that also gives them less room to move later.

Maybe things will stay rosey for ever, but the life of me I can't see how. After the last crash as things were starting to stabilize again I bought bank repossessions and did pretty well. If the econoomy slows due to an external black swan then a lot of those loans are going to default. Thing about Thais is seems many would rather default on a loan than sell at a loss and save some of their investment. That seems to be why prices don't drop as dramatically as in the West, but plenty end up with the banks.

[davejones]

Some say there are better property investments in other countries. But this misses the point that it is easier to buy and manage a property that you live near. I would rather buy and investment condo in Thailand that I can manage myself than buy one in the US, where I'm unable to manage it or even visit it. Even if prospects were slightly better in USA, I'd still buy here.

How easy would it be to manage a condo in Thailand if your VISA was refused, you were deported, or you could no longer meet the requirements to get a VISA? I would rather have my investments in a country where I had the right to live or could divest myself of in a hurry. A condo in Thailand meets neither of these requirements.

That has to be taken into consideration, but I think that chances of that happening to me are negligible. At the moment I'm here and not in any other country. So I'd buy here based on the fact that I'm here and intend on staying. I can't see the point of buying in UK just in case I get deported one day. There is so little chance of that happening that it's not really worth considering. And if it did happen I'd deal with it at the time. I live in the present, not in some if/maybe kind of future. My money, my risk, and I'm happy with that. If others aren't then that's for them to decide. I don't decide what other people should do and I don't let other people decide for me. I would be very poor now if I'd listened to all the doom merchants with their what if so and so happens scenarios. I was making lots of money while they were so worried to do anything. And they still don't get it. Investing in property has it's risks, but there are ways to mitigate them. Buying a condo with 5% of my net worth is not really a risk for me. If I lose it all, so what. Life is for living, not for worrying all the time.

[KhunMoo]

Some say there are better property investments in other countries. But this misses the point that it is easier to buy and manage a property that you live near. I would rather buy and investment condo in Thailand that I can manage myself than buy one in the US, where I'm unable to manage it or even visit it. Even if prospects were slightly better in USA, I'd still buy here.

How easy would it be to manage a condo in Thailand if your VISA was refused, you were deported, or you could no longer meet the requirements to get a VISA? I would rather have my investments in a country where I had the right to live or could divest myself of in a hurry. A condo in Thailand meets neither of these requirements.

That has to be taken into consideration, but I think that chances of that happening to me are negligible. At the moment I'm here and not in any other country. So I'd buy here based on the fact that I'm here and intend on staying. I can't see the point of buying in UK just in case I get deported one day. There is so little chance of that happening that it's not really worth considering. And if it did happen I'd deal with it at the time. I live in the present, not in some if/maybe kind of future. My money, my risk, and I'm happy with that. If others aren't then that's for them to decide. I don't decide what other people should do and I don't let other people decide for me. I would be very poor now if I'd listened to all the doom merchants with their what if so and so happens scenarios. I was making lots of money while they were so worried to do anything. And they still don't get it. Investing in property has it's risks, but there are ways to mitigate them. Buying a condo with 5% of my net worth is not really a risk for me. If I lose it all, so what. Life is for living, not for worrying all the time.

That is something completely different, than stating that: Investing in condo's in Thailand is a good idea.

I believe that everyone should have a "lottery ticket" in their portfolio - something that you think, only you have seen - and something that you can afford, to go wrong. But with interests of 5, 10, 20 PPA - it's not a very good lottery ticket

[Happyman108]

Some say there are better property investments in other countries. But this misses the point that it is easier to buy and manage a property that you live near. I would rather buy and investment condo in Thailand that I can manage myself than buy one in the US, where I'm unable to manage it or even visit it. Even if prospects were slightly better in USA, I'd still buy here.

How easy would it be to manage a condo in Thailand if your VISA was refused, you were deported, or you could no longer meet the requirements to get a VISA? I would rather have my investments in a country where I had the right to live or could divest myself of in a hurry. A condo in Thailand meets neither of these requirements.

That has to be taken into consideration, but I think that chances of that happening to me are negligible. At the moment I'm here and not in any other country. So I'd buy here based on the fact that I'm here and intend on staying. I can't see the point of buying in UK just in case I get deported one day. There is so little chance of that happening that it's not really worth considering. And if it did happen I'd deal with it at the time. I live in the present, not in some if/maybe kind of future. My money, my risk, and I'm happy with that. If others aren't then that's for them to decide. I don't decide what other people should do and I don't let other people decide for me. I would be very poor now if I'd listened to all the doom merchants with their what if so and so happens scenarios. I was making lots of money while they were so worried to do anything. And they still don't get it. Investing in property has it's risks, but there are ways to mitigate them. Buying a condo with 5% of my net worth is not really a risk for me. If I lose it all, so what. Life is for living, not for worrying all the time.

Agree !!

Hope not all go for buying a property in Thailand, just enjoy staying and pay some rent.....I hope to have more people renting my condo and I'll keep buying smaller (45sqm 1 bedroom type) and of cheaper value (2-5% of my net worth) condo

[davejones]

I agree that Thailand is not a great place for property investment, but the mistake you're making is that different people have different circumstances. It's not wrong for everyone to buy a condo. If everyone listened to you, then we'd all be living on the streets because there wouldn't be any condos to buy or rent. Many people have a long-term perspective and I think it is a near certainty that property prices in Thailand will rise over the next 30 years.

And for the people that mention low quality, bad management, etc. Then buy a high-quality condo with great management in a great area. Yes, they do exist. There are plenty of great, sold out and full condos in Bangkok. There are also lots of not so good quality, empty, bad location condos.

If you don't want to invest here, then don't. It's obviously not for you. If you're happy investing in the USA, then invest there and let the people who are happy to invest here get on with it. Not sure why you're so worried about people you don't know investing here.

[davejones]

Some say there are better property investments in other countries. But this misses the point that it is easier to buy and manage a property that you live near. I would rather buy and investment condo in Thailand that I can manage myself than buy one in the US, where I'm unable to manage it or even visit it. Even if prospects were slightly better in USA, I'd still buy here.

How easy would it be to manage a condo in Thailand if your VISA was refused, you were deported, or you could no longer meet the requirements to get a VISA? I would rather have my investments in a country where I had the right to live or could divest myself of in a hurry. A condo in Thailand meets neither of these requirements.

That has to be taken into consideration, but I think that chances of that happening to me are negligible. At the moment I'm here and not in any other country. So I'd buy here based on the fact that I'm here and intend on staying. I can't see the point of buying in UK just in case I get deported one day. There is so little chance of that happening that it's not really worth considering. And if it did happen I'd deal with it at the time. I live in the present, not in some if/maybe kind of future. My money, my risk, and I'm happy with that. If others aren't then that's for them to decide. I don't decide what other people should do and I don't let other people decide for me. I would be very poor now if I'd listened to all the doom merchants with their what if so and so happens scenarios. I was making lots of money while they were so worried to do anything. And they still don't get it. Investing in property has it's risks, but there are ways to mitigate them. Buying a condo with 5% of my net worth is not really a risk for me. If I lose it all, so what. Life is for living, not for worrying all the time.

That is something completely different, than stating that: Investing in condo's in Thailand is a good idea.

I believe that everyone should have a "lottery ticket" in their portfolio - something that you think, only you have seen - and something that you can afford, to go wrong. But with interests of 5, 10, 20 PPA - it's not a very good lottery ticket

I don't believe that investing in a condo in Thailand is a good idea in general, and I've never said that. But there are some good investments here, but are a little harder to find. There is no way I would consider Thailand in general to be good for property investment. You have to be very careful about what you buy. The other thing is that if I buy it is more likely to be a home than an investment. I haven't ruled out an investment though. If I come across a great investment I will take it. But equally, I'm happy to not invest here at all. There are good and bad investments in every country.

But I would rather have some property rather than money sitting in the bank. Inflation can easily wipe out cash in a matter of a few years.