Wanted: A Roadmap Out Of The Middle Of Nowhere: Thai Talk

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THAI TALK

Wanted: A roadmap out of 'the middle of nowhere'

Suthichai Yoon

The Nation

Somkiat Tangkitvanij

BANGKOK: -- A sage told me recently, in describing how depressed he was over the future of Thailand: "I can't say Thailand is marching forward. Neither can I say it's lagging behind. I can't say Thais are stupid. Neither can I say my fellow countrymen are bright

A few days after that, I read an enlightening story in a similar vein.

Somkiat Tangkitvanij, the new director of the Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI), says the country's development efforts have hit a dead end.

"Thailand can't hope to grow as before," he said. "We have used up our old fortunes. If we don't try to find a new way out, the country stands to suffer."

The country's old development model has run its course. The three major pillars of development strategy are industrial development, exports and cheap labour. Now, without a proper technological development plan, Thailand can't move forward.

"We can't hope to rely on exports," said Somkiat. "The world demand for our goods is declining. The US, Europe, Japan and China aren't going to buy more from us."

Two serious issues have arisen to make the whole scenario worse: shrinking education quality and deepening corruption.

These three negative factors won't plunge the country into an abyss right away, but a fourth issue - the government's troublesome financial position - could cause Thailand to stumble, and that could trigger a sudden fall.

In other countries facing a similar malaise, when public debt has climbed to a dangerous level, public confidence has eroded - prompting the government to print more money, pushing up inflation and burdening the country's debt burden proportionately.

The next two years won't see a crisis here. Thailand's public debt still stands at around 40 per cent. But the trend has delivered some worrisome signs. These, according to the TDRI president, stem from the political game being played by all the major parties.

It doesn't matter which party wins the election because the rules of the game have more or less been set: The winning party, in order to stay in power and to win the next election, will have to adopt the populist way.

"It is clear that the path has been set for all political parties to please the electorate the easy and highly visible way," Somkiat explained. "The ruling party feels obliged to spend tax money to please the voters - instantly and tangibly. The real cost will surface over the longer term. That's when the problem emerges."

The crux of the problem, therefore, lies in the fact that Thai politicians tend to play the short-sighted game. "The voters have been spoiled," he said. "They demand the goodies from their politicians today or tomorrow. If they tell the people to wait two or three years, they might stand to lose the next elections."

As a result, no government is interested in long-term, sustainable development plans. Governments rarely last the full four-year term, and even if they do, Cabinet members need to be moved around every few months so that political debts are paid and scores settled.

"If a minister has six months to one year in his or her position, how can they get anything done in a serious way?" asked the high-profile academic.

These are questions that have haunted the country for a long time. Any academic or research institute attempting to brainstorm the country's best minds for a proposed roadmap to get the country out of the political deadlock runs the risk of being accused of being dogmatic and theoretical.

But the issues are real and the dilemma is serious. The stalemate has been compounded by the prolonged social conflict fuelled by the pro-Thaksin and anti-Thaksin factions.

The paradox is glaringly clear: Thailand has managed to survive despite its intractable political problems. The people have somehow muddled through despite the rotten system.

But the "inventory of good luck plus pure charm" is undoubtedly running low. Only a real political, economic and social reform movement can prevent an imminent breakdown.

How we can get out of the "middle of nowhere" is at the crux of the country's real problems.

-- The Nation 2012-10-25

[hellodolly]

Yes Thailand can never move ahead any farther than they are now unless they improve the education system and come up with some of their own technology. Their ability to use other peoples thinking has gone about as far as it can go.

For a academic I have to admit he make a lot of sense. I notice he did not even consider cheap pads for all school children as a saving grace.

[MaxLee]

The rich and powerful high status people and politicians try to hold down the really revolutionary educated people, in order TO SAVE FACE!!!! For many centuries this crap is going on…

[Tatsujin]

Nicely written piece ... thumbs up!

[asiawatcher]

A good summary of Thailand, its problems and its future. To start a road to recovery Thailand MUST revoke the powers of the politicians in handling money and its disbursement. There will always be corruption and those who are a party to it, will fight tooth and nail to retain it. But it has to be reduced and it needs to start now.

[chainarong]

I'm on the road to nowhere can I help.

[jonclark]

Wonder if the sage he consulted was a TV member? & should we listen to people who consult sages? (yes I know pretty much all politicians in Thailand and Asia consult sages of various forms) its a rhetorical question

[Tatsujin]

Wonder if the sage he consulted was a TV member? & should we listen to people who consult sages? (yes I know pretty much all politicians in Thailand and Asia consult sages of various forms) its a rhetorical question

It was me!

[redroo]

Don't worry thailand ,

the world's slipping into a blackhole,

past the event horizon....

[noitom]

The article repeats and dwells on the issue of "political squabbling." Thailand's problems existed long before these politicians were elected to office after 1932. Thailand's problems were proliferated through the years by greed, corruption, and pecking order long before elected politicians. No way out for Thailand. The Road To Serfdom by Hayek is very appropriate in Thailand's case.

[Dap]

Yes Thailand can never move ahead any farther than they are now unless they improve the education system and come up with some of their own technology. Their ability to use other peoples thinking has gone about as far as it can go.

For a academic I have to admit he make a lot of sense. I notice he did not even consider cheap pads for all school children as a saving grace.

Yes Thailand can never move ahead any farther than they are now unless they improve the education system and come up with some of their own technology. Their ability to use other peoples thinking has gone about as far as it can go.

For a academic I have to admit he make a lot of sense. I notice he did not even consider cheap pads for all school children as a saving grace.

And because of this gross inconsideration, no one will pay any attention. So goes the show.

[sirchai]

"I can't say Thais are stupid. Neither can I say my fellow countrymen are bright."

"We can't hope to rely on exports," said Somkiat. "The world demand for our goods is declining. The US, Europe, Japan and China aren't going to buy more from us."

​ There're not too many items Thailand could sell to European countries. Regarding their educational systems, they'll have to change a lot. No more loss of face, kids have to fail to be good etc...

Take all the teachers down of their thrones. They should start to understand that hitting kids doesn't help.

Send those who want to become English teachers abroad to study, it will pay back soon.

Most of them don't even know much about the subject they're teaching.

Changes have to be made almost everywhere. ASEAN will over roll Thailand like a big snowball.

Neither Thais. nor their government justice etc will be ready for the big disaster.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_exports

[fire and ice]

Very well put, except this bit:

The paradox is glaringly clear: Thailand has managed to survive despite its intractable political problems. The people have somehow muddled through despite the rotten system.

Actually they are where they are because of problems highlighted here. Thailand would be (and could be) in a much better position if it were managed properly (as opposed to it going down the drain).

[attento]

His comments could be said for many Western countries too, with slightly differing emphases here and there.

And those countries haven't found the answer either.

[khunken]

His comments could be said for many Western countries too, with slightly differing emphases here and there.

And those countries haven't found the answer either.

Not true. Western countries found numerous answers. From the Industrial Revolution through tecnological discoveries they reached a level of development that Thailand only aspires to.

The current pause in western countries development has it's roots in many of the problems facing Thailand today. Political division, rich getting richer, overspending are major factors in the west & those are some of the same factors holding Thailand back. The Thai educational system needs drastic reform as do the police as ill-educated young people are not equipped to move thailand up the economic chain & the serious level of corruption needs a much cleaner police force to tackle it.

This is a very good article but needs to be broadcast widely through the Thai media.

[sunshine51]

Let me see here...Middle of nowhere...hmmmmmm

where have I seen or heard that before?

Oh....maybe here....

and also here....

[khaowong1]

I'm with Khunken.. This message should be brought before the Thai public. But from what I see, nobody wants to hear this stuff. The Thai way is, if you do nothing, nothing bad will happen. Of course nothing good will happen either, but hey.

[EvilDrSomkid]

Remind me, who are the readers of The Nation? Westerners? English speaking Thai?

There are plenty of Thai who are aware of these issues.

They are the new generation of modern, (self-)educated Thai.

They are the people who do not fall into the yellow or red camps.

They are the people who often have their own companies.

They are the Thai who are stuck in the middle. Stuck between the old generation and the too young to care.

They are the men and and women who every day try to get on with their lives and try to improve themselves.

They love their country, even with all it's problems

I have spoken to several and they don't know the way out either.

Excellent article, by the way.

Edited October 25, 2012 by EvilDrSomkid

[yoshiwara]

The rich and powerful high status people and politicians try to hold down the really revolutionary educated people, in order TO SAVE FACE!!!! For many centuries this crap is going on…

and who would that be?