Thaksin Should Use Own Money To Speculate On Crop, Thai Economist Says

[webfact]

Ammar slams rice 'blunders'

The Nation

Thaksin should use own money - not country's - to speculate on crop, economist says

BANGKOK: -- Outspoken economist Ammar Siamwalla on Friday lashed out at the government's "disastrous" rice-pledging scheme and dared former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra to use his own money to speculate in the rice market.

"The government has made many blunders with the rice policy," Ammar, from the Thailand Development Research Institute, said in an exclusive interview with Krungthep Turakij TV.

He blamed the government and Thaksin, who is believed to wield influence over the Yingluck Shinawatra government's policies, for the high cost of underpinning the price support scheme for rice while poor farmers barely see any benefit from it.

The government built up 10 million tonnes of rice stocks last year, but it could not push up world market prices, Ammar said.

The government bought rice from farmers at an average price of Bt15,000 per tonne, which was much higher than the market price, under the rice-pledging scheme, which was aimed at pulling world prices up, he said.

The government claims success in exporting seven million tonnes of rice via government-to-government contracts, but there was no evidence that the government shipped rice of out the country, he said.

Thaksin had recently urged the government led by his sister Yingluck to continue the rice subsidy scheme for two or three years, Amman said. Thaksin also urged the government to increase rice stocks by 20 million to 40 million tonnes over the next few years, as the global price would go up due to the possibility of some kind of natural disaster.

"Thaksin should buy rice from Thailand. As I have a stake in this country, I will fully support the government in selling rice at a loss to Thaksin," Ammar said.

He did not mind if Thaksin uses his own money to speculate on rice trading, but it is unfair to gamble with taxpayers' money.

"Why do we use tax money to fulfil Thaksin's dream?"

He estimated losses of Bt100 billion a year from the rice pledging scheme against the Finance Ministry's projection of about Bt40 billion in losses a year, at taxpayers' expense.

The scheme in the short run benefits rich farmers, but poor farmers representing 47 per cent of the total of four million farmer families got only 18 per cent of the gains, he said. Rich and middle-income farmer groups get the same share of the benefits, about 40 per cent.

In the long run, Thais and other people in Asia will consume less rice as their incomes improve, he said.

The effort by Thailand and other rice exporters to form a rice cartel similar to Opec's oil cartel would be an exercise in futility.

"It's a stupid idea", he said.

Rice is a perishable commodity. It cannot be stocked like crude oil, which can be kept underground, he said.

Opec is successful because Saudi Arabia, the largest oil exporter, sometimes cuts its production when others do not cut production as promised. But rice harvests flow to the market every year, he said.

The Thai and Vietnamese cabinets held a joint meeting in Hanoi on Saturday, but there was no solid agreement. They only decided to set up a committee to push for talks on rice trading.

As for how to stop the rice-pledging scheme, Ammar suggested it would self-destruct.

"When the fiscal [balloon] bursts, it may lead to the government's collapse … the government is playing a high stakes game," he added.

-- The Nation 2012-10-29

[asiawatcher]

It appears everyone agrees the rice scam is doomed but the Govt, in sheer stupidity and arrogance, continues to cling to the wishes of Thaksin who is trying to manipulate the global market. What greater proof can there be that this narcissistic maniac cares nothing about Thailand and simply directs his puppets to gamble on his behalf using tax payers money? Throw this bunch of incompetent criminals out on their ear now, before the losses and theft of public funds compounds. Impeachment of the PM, no confidence censure, coup - whatever works, get rid of them before it's too late.

[DP25]

Outspoken economist Ammar Siamwalla on Friday lashed out at the government's "disastrous" rice-pledging scheme and dared former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra to use his own money to speculate in the rice market.

In Thaksin's point of view, he already is using his own money to speculate on the rice market. Him and his cronies see little difference between taxpayer money and their own personal piggy bank.

[Ricardo]

Some might suspect that he is using his own money too, to speculate in the rice market, but when one is worth 'less than a million' (as quoted in that Korean interview a few months back) that just won't be enough to 'help the poor' with his personal version of the rice-pledge policy. Still, every little bit helps !

And any profits he makes will of course be used to help the poor, as indeed the public-funds will be used for, whenever the scheme makes a profit on their speculation ? Which may however be some time in coming.

The world's former top rice-exporter cuts export-volumes by more than 50%, possibly by much more, but the world-price is still well below the price supposed to reach the Thai farmers, and then there's storage & milling-costs & transport and sales-commissions to pay-for, luckily the government-finances are in good shape and can afford it, no need to borrow from the banks.

[HiSoLowSoNoSo]

Thaksin Shinawatra to use his own money to speculate in the rice market

Try to get one Baht from him and his familly! Good luck I say.

[siampolee]

When one considers both the moral standards of the Thaksin family and their respect for the law the very idea the very concept of using Thaksins and the familys own money is a totally alien concept to them.

As has already been stated the Thaksin yardstick concerning money follows these rules below.

.'' What money is mine is mine ,what money is the country's is mine what money is yours is mine.

Render unto Thaksin that which is Thaksins and render unto Thaksin that which is not Thaksins.

Edited October 29, 2012 by siampolee

[lannarebirth]

I always imagined that the whole purpose of the rice pledging scam scheme is because Thaksin would use his own money to frontrun policy in the futures markets. Closely held information has great value, just like when he got richer when the Baht got devalued.

[LuckyLew]

Why is everyone bashing the rice scheme?

Thaksin says it will come good, he is always right

So the rice scheme must be a great idea

[fareastguy]

As the old adage goes:

You can fool some of the people all of the time

you can fool all the of people some of the time

but you can't fool all the people all of the time !!

The rice pledging scheme has from the very start been a means of corruption for the few "big" men with very little filtering down to the intended poor farmers. If the government was really sincere in helping them, then there were other more direct ways to pass on payments for their crops.

Putting the money in the hands of officials & middle men to officiate as we all know will only have one outcome.

To continue this scheme would be madness, but then again another couple of sayings come to mind..

Give them enough rope & they'll hang themselves.

Patience is a virtue..

[jerrysteve]

I couldn't agree more with the Economists...They are right on target.

It is unfortunate that the damage is already done, and there will be more damage to come.

The government in power has no idea how world markets run...They are the part of that 90% public that sells right when the hedge funds and a all the big boys are about to buy, and buys when the hedge funds and big institutions are about to sell which are always on the other side of the public's

trades transferring the dumb money from the public into to their own accounts...

And thats the ball game.

[whybother]

Is this government to government deal a deal from the Yingluck government to the Thaksin government? At a loss to the Yingluck government of course.

[jerrysteve]

LuckyLew: Scheme is the right word: The more elaborate the plan, the riskier it is..

Edited October 29, 2012 by jerrysteve

[nurofiend]

Why is everyone bashing the rice scheme?

bias.

[fokus]

Does any one know of a Rice Farmer who has been paid 15000 Baht per tonne ?, I Don't.

[Moruya]

Why is everyone bashing the rice scheme?

bias.

Common sense.

[h90]

It appears everyone agrees the rice scam is doomed but the Govt, in sheer stupidity and arrogance, continues to cling to the wishes of Thaksin who is trying to manipulate the global market. What greater proof can there be that this narcissistic maniac cares nothing about Thailand and simply directs his puppets to gamble on his behalf using tax payers money? Throw this bunch of incompetent criminals out on their ear now, before the losses and theft of public funds compounds. Impeachment of the PM, no confidence censure, coup - whatever works, get rid of them before it's too late.

Thaksin is the government and I am sure he earn good money on the expense of Thailand.

[p_brownstone]

An important side effect of this scheme is that it is further dividing Thai Society - more than likely a deliberate aim of Thaksin.

Even though the majority of Red Shirt farmers are not getting anywhere near the Baht 15,000 per tonne the scheme trumpets they firmly believe it is all designed by Thaksin and will eventually improve the lot of the Farming community.

Every time an Economist or even a body like TDRI or the Rice Exporters Association comes out and demonstrates the total unsustainability of the Pledging scheme the Red Shirts are instantly up in arms, claiming that attempts by these people to have the scheme rescinded are yet more proof that the "Amart" are determined to keep the "Prai" down and destroy anything done by Thaksin to improve their situation.

Like most of Thaksins' Populist and equally unsustainable policies this scheme will be very difficult to dismantle without creating substantial social unrest.

I am coming more and more to the conclusion that all these schemes are not just a deliberate, vengeful attempt by Thaksin to bankrupt the Country which rejected him (and at the same time enriching himself and his family of course) but are also designed to drive deeper and deeper wedges into the fabric of Thai society.

Patrick

[Nickymaster]

Why is everyone bashing the rice scheme?

Thaksin says it will come good, he is always right

So the rice scheme must be a great idea

Come good for who?

[p_brownstone]

The basic premise, the rationale offered by Thaksin for stockpiling vast amounts or Rice is also patently unrealistic.

We are told that in the (unspecified) future there will be a disaster - man-made or natural, we are not told - and as a result there will be a major shortage of important Foodstuffs. This is what Thailand has been planning for and will immediately offer its Stockpile of Rice to the world at a price which will make a profit even after the high prices paid to Farmers.

What nonsense!

Imagine the worldwide reaction to Thailands' greedy exploitation of a disaster in this way! International condemnation, Trade and Tourism boycotts possibly even UN Sanctions.

Thaksins' whole Business life has been built on greed protected by his own impunity, and he imagines that model can be projected into the world Commodities Market just as easily and without adverse effects on a Country.

Patrick

[asiawatcher]

It appears everyone agrees the rice scam is doomed but the Govt, in sheer stupidity and arrogance, continues to cling to the wishes of Thaksin who is trying to manipulate the global market. What greater proof can there be that this narcissistic maniac cares nothing about Thailand and simply directs his puppets to gamble on his behalf using tax payers money? Throw this bunch of incompetent criminals out on their ear now, before the losses and theft of public funds compounds. Impeachment of the PM, no confidence censure, coup - whatever works, get rid of them before it's too late.

Thaksin is the government and I am sure he earn good money on the expense of Thailand.

My point exactly - get rid of it - him - same same...

[tragickingdom]

The Nation should stop quoting economists. For any elite economist ten real economist can be found also outside the country. Thai economists and scholars make a bad example they cannot even take care of education. The average Thai iQ i still sinking. We know how it comes. That of the poor is rising but is offset by heirs of the rich who kill policemen while under influence of drugs and alcohol and Thai academics and police cheat to make it through their exams.

[eddie61]

It appears everyone agrees the rice scam is doomed but the Govt, in sheer stupidity and arrogance, continues to cling to the wishes of Thaksin who is trying to manipulate the global market. What greater proof can there be that this narcissistic maniac cares nothing about Thailand and simply directs his puppets to gamble on his behalf using tax payers money? Throw this bunch of incompetent criminals out on their ear now, before the losses and theft of public funds compounds. Impeachment of the PM, no confidence censure, coup - whatever works, get rid of them before it's too late.

Thaksin is wrong more often than he is right, but he gambles with other peoples money. He cant lose.......Heads he wins, tails we lose.

[Thaddeus]

The Nation should stop quoting economists. For any elite economist ten real economist can be found also outside the country. Thai economists and scholars make a bad example they cannot even take care of education. The average Thai iQ i still sinking. We know how it comes. That of the poor is rising but is offset by heirs of the rich who kill policemen while under influence of drugs and alcohol and Thai academics and police cheat to make it through their exams.

His qualifications come from The London School of Economics and Harvard.

Ammar attended St. Paul's School, Darjeeling in India, he went on to receive a B.Sc. in Economics from the London School of Economics and a Ph.D. in Economics from Harvard University. His teachers at Harvard were Alexander Gerschenkron, Wassily Leontief and Edward Chamberlin among others.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ammar_Siamwalla

[Tatsujin]

As the old adage goes:

You can fool some of the people all of the time

you can fool all the of people some of the time

but you can't fool all the people all of the time !!

They've been doing a pretty good job of it for 100's of years here so far . . . I don't see it changing anytime soon . . .

[SICHONSTEVE]

It appears everyone agrees the rice scam is doomed but the Govt, in sheer stupidity and arrogance, continues to cling to the wishes of Thaksin who is trying to manipulate the global market. What greater proof can there be that this narcissistic maniac cares nothing about Thailand and simply directs his puppets to gamble on his behalf using tax payers money? Throw this bunch of incompetent criminals out on their ear now, before the losses and theft of public funds compounds. Impeachment of the PM, no confidence censure, coup - whatever works, get rid of them before it's too late.

I think this governments doing a splendid job. They have clearly got their fingers on the pulse and are making all the right moves. They have able people at the helm of every ministry and those ministers are worthy and honest people, not capable of entering into corrupt practices of any description as their consciences wouldn't allow them to as they are there solely to serve the people.

Oh sorry, I forgot, we've had an election since!!! I think its about time we had another one, don't you?.

[allan michaud]

It appears everyone agrees the rice scam is doomed but the Govt, in sheer stupidity and arrogance, continues to cling to the wishes of Thaksin who is trying to manipulate the global market. What greater proof can there be that this narcissistic maniac cares nothing about Thailand and simply directs his puppets to gamble on his behalf using tax payers money? Throw this bunch of incompetent criminals out on their ear now, before the losses and theft of public funds compounds. Impeachment of the PM, no confidence censure, coup - whatever works, get rid of them before it's too late.

This is all being done to wreck the economy so when the Baht collapses (again) Thaksin's billions in foreign currency will be worth even more. After all he already has great experience of doing this in 97 when he, allegedly, shipped all his money off shore just before the collapse.

[Anon999]

The Nation should stop quoting economists. For any elite economist ten real economist can be found also outside the country. Thai economists and scholars make a bad example they cannot even take care of education.

Maybe you can get your facts right sometimes but I will not hold my breath.

Edited October 29, 2012 by Anon999

[Baerboxer]

The basic premise, the rationale offered by Thaksin for stockpiling vast amounts or Rice is also patently unrealistic.

We are told that in the (unspecified) future there will be a disaster - man-made or natural, we are not told - and as a result there will be a major shortage of important Foodstuffs. This is what Thailand has been planning for and will immediately offer its Stockpile of Rice to the world at a price which will make a profit even after the high prices paid to Farmers.

What nonsense!

Imagine the worldwide reaction to Thailands' greedy exploitation of a disaster in this way! International condemnation, Trade and Tourism boycotts possibly even UN Sanctions.

Thaksins' whole Business life has been built on greed protected by his own impunity, and he imagines that model can be projected into the world Commodities Market just as easily and without adverse effects on a Country.

Patrick

Is it really nonsense? The whole financial and trading world act on rumour, predictions, insdier knowledge and speculation. I know from experience the Saudis are very concerned about the future supply of food staples in KSA. That's why they were buying up vast tracts of farmland all over the place.

Future food and water shortages are a common prediction amongs economists and climate change pundits just as much as energy shortages and the prediction of WW3.

Do you think anyone really cares about the UN? They are not exactly the most effective organization. Thaksin knows that the ME will pay high prices for food should these predictions come true. They won't care about the UN or anyone else and they have the money. Thaksin's gamble is that this will happen but no one knows the timing. Rice can't be kept for ever so he may get caught out. I have said Thaksin because I can't believe any of the other numpties could work a strategy like this out.

Edited October 29, 2012 by Baerboxer

[maidu]

a few years ago, I went around to rice millers in my area of northernmost Thailand. I was looking for composted rice hulls to mix with garden soil. At one place, I found a big pile of it in the far reaches of the property, which the mill management didn't even know about. When I came back a couple of days later, it was all gone - sold.

All the rice milling companies I found were Chinese-Thai owned. How do I know? They all had chinese writing on their office walls, and other chinese paraphanalia all over. Rice millers are getting rich on this stupid rice pledging scam. Thaksin and his family are Chinese Thai. Go figure.

[virtualtraveller]

Thaksin might retort ; I'm only using up money stolen from me in the ASC case'. There's only two ways he or Yingluck will be held accountable; 1) a vote of no confidence in parliament from his own allied MPs (fat chance) and the electorate shunning PT at the next election because they realise all the state's money has been wasted (fat chance). But if, say, there was a financial collapse like '97 triggered during a world recession, it might indeed be a rather costly but effective way of confining the Shinawatra economic gurus to the dustbin of history.