Thai Consumer Confidence Rises But May Be Short-Lived

[webfact]

Consumer confidence rises but may be short-lived

PETCHANET PRATRUANGKRAI

THE NATION

BANGKOK: -- Thai consumer confidence is on the rise again, thanks to less concern about a repeat of last year's flood disaster and better sentiment arising from the current economic growth. However, this trend could be ruined early next year as worries about political stability escalate and higher wages affect some businesses.

The University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) yesterday announced that the Consumer Confidence Index in October climbed for the first time in four months, to 77.8 points from 77 in September. Most sub-indices related to confidence also increased.

Increasing confidence was attributed to less concern about floods, a positive outlook on the country's economic growth, lower fuel prices, lower interest rates, and recovered export growth in September along with expected stronger growth to come.

"However, confidence might grow only for a short period, as Thais have started to show more concern about political stability with the return of anti-government activists and expectation of rising activities late this month," said Thanavath Phonvichai, director of the UTCC's Economic and Business Forecasting Centre.

He said the chamber might lower its economic forecast for this year from 5.6-per-cent growth in gross domestic product given the worry over political conflict as well as concern on the global economy.

However, the chamber still projects that GDP in the final quarter of this year will grow strongly, by 13-14 per cent year on year. This is mainly due to strong growth of tourism. Next year, income from tourism is expected to reach between Bt900 billion and Bt1 trillion.

The chamber found that the index on political confidence had dropped to the lowest figure in almost two years, from 70.3 points in September to 67.1 points last month.

An index score above 100 points means high consumer confidence, while figures below 100 show weak confidence. The university surveyed 2,252 respondents across the country on their confidence in the economy in October.

Other factors that could affect consumer sentiment in the near future include the government policy to raise the minimum daily wage to Bt300 nationwide early next year, uncertainty over the global economy, particularly the euro-zone debt problem, and the expected higher cost of living next year.

The chamber has consistently opposed improving labourers' wages. Thanavath claimed that consumers were increasingly worried that higher wages would cause some businesses to close down or lay off workers to cut costs. Goods prices are expected to increase in line with the higher cost of labour.

However, other sub-indices related to confidence went up in October.

Confidence in future income grew slightly from 94.8 points in September to 95.3 last month, while the index for future employment opportunities rose from 68.9 points to 69.8.

-- The Nation 2012-11-03

[asiawatcher]

"... An index score above 100 points means high consumer confidence, while figures below 100 show weak confidence".

So if the index shows income at 95 and employment at 69, the basis is clearly made confident on the 300 baht scheme, but no real improvement in employment. Does this mean people think income is not directly related to work In the govt that is the case - skimming is much easier than working.

[MEL1]

It's so much easier to get a credit card now, or three or four, even for rice farmers.

Of course spending will rise, and debt is increasing. Thais are not very well educated when it comes to finances, as it's mostly get what you can whilst it's available, and worry afterwards.

I wonder how soon it will be before credit cards here are levied against cars and homes, and not income.

Re-possessions will be a big thing of the future here, for the blind, unfortunately. That's a fact, only if Thailand bases it's lending according to worldwide standards.

The majority will crap themselves, and theft and stealing will be on a massive increase to meet personal needs.

Happened in Europe, happened in US, is happening globally in 3rd worlds, and ready to hit here.

Fair play to the House. They're making a fortune, and won't be here to pick up the pieces.... bastards!

-mel.

[chiangmaikelly]

You wonder how all these people can live in Thailand surrounded by a boom unprecedented in the past 10 years and not notice it. The Nation sooner or later will run out of bad things to say about the economy as the GNP keeps going up and unemployment keeps going down.

[jbrain]

Bad news for the Thai Visa doom and gloom squad.

but may be short-lived

I guess everything isn't lost yet

[ratcatcher]

Bad news for the Thai Visa doom and gloom squad.

It's so much easier to get a credit card now, or three or four, even for rice farmers.

Of course spending will rise, and debt is increasing. Thais are not very well educated when it comes to finances, as it's mostly get what you can whilst it's available, and worry afterwards.

I wonder how soon it will be before credit cards here are levied against cars and homes, and not income.

Re-possessions will be a big thing of the future here, for the blind, unfortunately. That's a fact, only if Thailand bases it's lending according to worldwide standards.

The majority will crap themselves, and theft and stealing will be on a massive increase to meet personal needs.

Happened in Europe, happened in US, is happening globally in 3rd worlds, and ready to hit here.

Fair play to the House. They're making a fortune, and won't be here to pick up the pieces.... bastards!

-mel.

chiangmaikelly, the above post is probably your idea of a 'doom and gloom' post, however, sadly it is pretty well stating the obvious. The ones who will suffer will be exactly those whom the government purportedly is trying to help.

[chiangmaikelly]

Bad news for the Thai Visa doom and gloom squad.

It's so much easier to get a credit card now, or three or four, even for rice farmers.

Of course spending will rise, and debt is increasing. Thais are not very well educated when it comes to finances, as it's mostly get what you can whilst it's available, and worry afterwards.

I wonder how soon it will be before credit cards here are levied against cars and homes, and not income.

Re-possessions will be a big thing of the future here, for the blind, unfortunately. That's a fact, only if Thailand bases it's lending according to worldwide standards.

The majority will crap themselves, and theft and stealing will be on a massive increase to meet personal needs.

Happened in Europe, happened in US, is happening globally in 3rd worlds, and ready to hit here.

Fair play to the House. They're making a fortune, and won't be here to pick up the pieces.... bastards!

-mel.

chiangmaikelly, the above post is probably your idea of a 'doom and gloom' post, however, sadly it is pretty well stating the obvious. The ones who will suffer will be exactly those whom the government purportedly is trying to help.

What is happening in Thailand has nothing in common with what happened in the US. Thai banking system is nowhere near sophisticated enough to handle what happened in the US. They would not have a clue how to do it even if it was legal here.

[metisdead]

Nonsense posts have been removed.

[jbrain]

It's so much easier to get a credit card now, or three or four, even for rice farmers.

Of course spending will rise, and debt is increasing. Thais are not very well educated when it comes to finances, as it's mostly get what you can whilst it's available, and worry afterwards.

I wonder how soon it will be before credit cards here are levied against cars and homes, and not income.

Re-possessions will be a big thing of the future here, for the blind, unfortunately. That's a fact, only if Thailand bases it's lending according to worldwide standards.

The majority will crap themselves, and theft and stealing will be on a massive increase to meet personal needs.

Happened in Europe, happened in US, is happening globally in 3rd worlds, and ready to hit here.

Fair play to the House. They're making a fortune, and won't be here to pick up the pieces.... bastards!

-mel.

Re possesions are no thing of the future in Thailand, they have been going on as long as I remember and on a big scale.

You would be surprised if you could have a look at some bank books how much they actually own.

They own entire streets and buildings.

Only thing I don't get is why they actually sell so little and prefer to keep it on the books.

I guess it must have to do something with their balance sheets as they make massive profits and otherwise would have to pay too much taxes.

And as you say, the population will be in huge debts, but isn't that the intention.

I always remember the phrase I heard in my homecountry several decades ago.the government keeps them stupid while the church keeps them poor.

Overhere it is not different. If you can keep them poor and stupid, they are all yours.

[rubl]

It's so much easier to get a credit card now, or three or four, even for rice farmers.

Of course spending will rise, and debt is increasing. Thais are not very well educated when it comes to finances, as it's mostly get what you can whilst it's available, and worry afterwards.

I wonder how soon it will be before credit cards here are levied against cars and homes, and not income.

Re-possessions will be a big thing of the future here, for the blind, unfortunately. That's a fact, only if Thailand bases it's lending according to worldwide standards.

The majority will crap themselves, and theft and stealing will be on a massive increase to meet personal needs.

Happened in Europe, happened in US, is happening globally in 3rd worlds, and ready to hit here.

Fair play to the House. They're making a fortune, and won't be here to pick up the pieces.... bastards!

-mel.

Re possesions are no thing of the future in Thailand, they have been going on as long as I remember and on a big scale.

You would be surprised if you could have a look at some bank books how much they actually own.

They own entire streets and buildings.

Only thing I don't get is why they actually sell so little and prefer to keep it on the books.

I guess it must have to do something with their balance sheets as they make massive profits and otherwise would have to pay too much taxes.

And as you say, the population will be in huge debts, but isn't that the intention.

I always remember the phrase I heard in my homecountry several decades ago.the government keeps them stupid while the church keeps them poor.

Overhere it is not different. If you can keep them poor and stupid, they are all yours.

"The results of the analysis suggest that changes over the past 65 years in the top marginal tax rate and the top capital gains tax rate do not appear correlated with economic growth. The reduction in the top tax rates appears to be uncorrelated with saving, investment, and productivity growth. The top tax rates appear to have little or no relation to the size of the economic pie."

Oh, sorry, upon reading it seems the quote is not related to Thailand

http://politics.slas...ublican-protest

[kimamey]

You wonder how all these people can live in Thailand surrounded by a boom unprecedented in the past 10 years and not notice it. The Nation sooner or later will run out of bad things to say about the economy as the GNP keeps going up and unemployment keeps going down.

On a purely personal level, if things are going so well why didn't my gf, who works in local government, get her pay rise this year?

I don't think the Nation is saying bad things about the economy. They're merely reporting what has been said by others which is generally good but with the possibility of problems later. I wouldn't put too much faith in the unemployment figures as I often see wildly different numbers quoted and they're not going to be as accurate as those from countries where it's worth telling the government you're out of work as you will get money whilst you're unemployed. The figures I've seen would count as full employment in most developed nations as there are always some people not in work not least because there is often a small period of unemployment between jobs. It would be very difficult to start a new business if there were no unemployed workers able to join your company.

I do wonder sometimes about the upbeat messages coming from the Thai government. I won't be surprised to see the following.

Massive asteroid on course to destroy the Earth tomorrow.

Thai PM assures Thai people that it won't affect the kingdom as measures have been put in place to deal with it.

Thai tourist minister predicts 50% increase in tourists next year.

[Markaew]

What does confidence have to do with it? Every Thai I have ever seen spends their money as soon as they get it then looks to borrow from friends. Maybe they have more money now, but they sure aren't hanging on to it.

[chiangmaikelly]

It's so much easier to get a credit card now, or three or four, even for rice farmers.

Of course spending will rise, and debt is increasing. Thais are not very well educated when it comes to finances, as it's mostly get what you can whilst it's available, and worry afterwards.

I wonder how soon it will be before credit cards here are levied against cars and homes, and not income.

Re-possessions will be a big thing of the future here, for the blind, unfortunately. That's a fact, only if Thailand bases it's lending according to worldwide standards.

The majority will crap themselves, and theft and stealing will be on a massive increase to meet personal needs.

Happened in Europe, happened in US, is happening globally in 3rd worlds, and ready to hit here.

Fair play to the House. They're making a fortune, and won't be here to pick up the pieces.... bastards!

-mel.

Re possesions are no thing of the future in Thailand, they have been going on as long as I remember and on a big scale.

You would be surprised if you could have a look at some bank books how much they actually own.

They own entire streets and buildings.

Only thing I don't get is why they actually sell so little and prefer to keep it on the books.

I guess it must have to do something with their balance sheets as they make massive profits and otherwise would have to pay too much taxes.

And as you say, the population will be in huge debts, but isn't that the intention.

I always remember the phrase I heard in my homecountry several decades ago.the government keeps them stupid while the church keeps them poor.

Overhere it is not different. If you can keep them poor and stupid, they are all yours.

Like you said, you heard the saying in your home country and I imagine it applies to your home country. Dorothy this ain't Kansas. You're home country probably has unemployment because of poverty and stupidity. This is Thailand and we don't have that problem, unemployment that is.

[chiangmaikelly]

What does confidence have to do with it? Every Thai I have ever seen spends their money as soon as they get it then looks to borrow from friends. Maybe they have more money now, but they sure aren't hanging on to it.

No all Thais are low class farmers. There are 130 universities in Thailand that are turning out graduates as fast as they can.

[chiangmaikelly]

You wonder how all these people can live in Thailand surrounded by a boom unprecedented in the past 10 years and not notice it. The Nation sooner or later will run out of bad things to say about the economy as the GNP keeps going up and unemployment keeps going down.

On a purely personal level, if things are going so well why didn't my gf, who works in local government, get her pay rise this year?

I don't think the Nation is saying bad things about the economy. They're merely reporting what has been said by others which is generally good but with the possibility of problems later. I wouldn't put too much faith in the unemployment figures as I often see wildly different numbers quoted and they're not going to be as accurate as those from countries where it's worth telling the government you're out of work as you will get money whilst you're unemployed. The figures I've seen would count as full employment in most developed nations as there are always some people not in work not least because there is often a small period of unemployment between jobs. It would be very difficult to start a new business if there were no unemployed workers able to join your company.

I do wonder sometimes about the upbeat messages coming from the Thai government. I won't be surprised to see the following.

Massive asteroid on course to destroy the Earth tomorrow.

Thai PM assures Thai people that it won't affect the kingdom as measures have been put in place to deal with it.

Thai tourist minister predicts 50% increase in tourists next year.

You don't have to be unemployed to get a new job. You steal employees from another business and pay them more money.

Tell the GF that private industry like Ford and GM are hiring and pay a lot more than the government for good workers.

[Markaew]

What does confidence have to do with it? Every Thai I have ever seen spends their money as soon as they get it then looks to borrow from friends. Maybe they have more money now, but they sure aren't hanging on to it.

No all Thais are low class farmers. There are 130 universities in Thailand that are turning out graduates as fast as they can.

Granted, there a few university grads that get it, but you are assuming that university students as a whole are improved responsible citizens. Not happening. The no-fail policy ensures irresponsible behavior.

[chiangmaikelly]

What does confidence have to do with it? Every Thai I have ever seen spends their money as soon as they get it then looks to borrow from friends. Maybe they have more money now, but they sure aren't hanging on to it.

No all Thais are low class farmers. There are 130 universities in Thailand that are turning out graduates as fast as they can.

Granted, there a few university grads that get it, but you are assuming that university students as a whole are improved responsible citizens. Not happening. The no-fail policy ensures irresponsible behavior.

I suppose all the medical schools and pilot schools also have a no fail policy? I taught at government schools for years for the Thai Navy and was encouraged to fail students that did not meet my standards.

[metisdead]

A completely off topic bickering session has been removed.

[kimamey]

You wonder how all these people can live in Thailand surrounded by a boom unprecedented in the past 10 years and not notice it. The Nation sooner or later will run out of bad things to say about the economy as the GNP keeps going up and unemployment keeps going down.

On a purely personal level, if things are going so well why didn't my gf, who works in local government, get her pay rise this year?

I don't think the Nation is saying bad things about the economy. They're merely reporting what has been said by others which is generally good but with the possibility of problems later. I wouldn't put too much faith in the unemployment figures as I often see wildly different numbers quoted and they're not going to be as accurate as those from countries where it's worth telling the government you're out of work as you will get money whilst you're unemployed. The figures I've seen would count as full employment in most developed nations as there are always some people not in work not least because there is often a small period of unemployment between jobs. It would be very difficult to start a new business if there were no unemployed workers able to join your company.

I do wonder sometimes about the upbeat messages coming from the Thai government. I won't be surprised to see the following.

Massive asteroid on course to destroy the Earth tomorrow.

Thai PM assures Thai people that it won't affect the kingdom as measures have been put in place to deal with it.

Thai tourist minister predicts 50% increase in tourists next year.

You don't have to be unemployed to get a new job. You steal employees from another business and pay them more money.

Tell the GF that private industry like Ford and GM are hiring and pay a lot more than the government for good workers.

If you steal employees from another business that business shrinks and so the overall economy stagnates. The other thing that happens is that wages increase rapidly as companies struggle to keep and attract workers which fuels inflation. Not everyone leaves a job one day and starts another the next. This is particularly true in times of high employment when workers have more bargaining power and savings to allow them to wait a while for the job and terms they want.

I'm no economics expert and there are different measures of unemployment but I believe a figure of around 3% is considered good. I seem to remember one set of figures I saw for Thailand was around this level. This isn't a bad thing and if it's true then the government have got it about right. However for various reasons including the issue of accurate recording as I mentioned as well as my lack of confidence in the truthfulness of the government makes me unsure if it's true. Maybe it is.

As for my gf she has worked around the country including in Bangkok but she''s got a daughter and mother to look after and I'm not sure what opportunities there are in Mahasarakham. Besides which my comment was merely to question the strong financial position that you mentioned based on the fact that the salary increase she was supposed to receive in April didn't happen. I'm assuming this is due to the government trying to cut back. This would seem logical given that keeping the sort of promises the PTP made will have cost considerable sums. The rice pledging which I admit I don't understand is the obvious one but I know there are government funded training schemes to help increase productivity ahead of the rise in the minimum wage. It all costs.