Balancing Ties With Two Superpowers: Thailand

[webfact]

BURNING ISSUE

Balancing ties with two superpowers

Supalak Ganjanakhundee

BANGKOK: -- The government will need a keen sense of proportion this month when handling the flood of foreign missions - both arriving here and trips outside the country - to keep its balanced position in a world of rivalry.

At a special Cabinet meeting on Monday, before Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra departed to the United Kingdom, a lot of decisions were made that could be deemed to favour the United States amid preparations for an official visit by President Barack Obama on Sunday and Monday.

Cabinet endorsed the content of joint statements Yingluck will make with Obama during the visit on two matters. They will express readiness to join talks for the Washington-initiated Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a regional free-trade scheme, and to re-activate meetings of the Trade and Investment Framework Agreement Joint Council (TIFA JC), a bilateral free-trade set-up.

Free-trade initiatives with the US have been sensitive, and there have been longstanding protests by local civil groups. Negotiations on a free-trade agreement with the US failed years ago due to strong opposition over various items proposed for inclusion in the pact.

Shortly after Monday's Cabinet meeting, civic groups under the umbrella of FTA Watch raised concern about the government's position on the free-trade initiative with the US. They say the US proposed free-trade agreement, according to their studies, could harm local bio-diversity and limit access to patented drugs.

The TPP, which the US is negotiating with eight countries, currently requires partners to patent bio-varieties for American benefit, according to Chakchai Chomthongdee of FTA Watch. "US patented drugs are very expensive - beyond what local patients can afford," he said.

Strategically, Chakchai said, the US would use TPP to expand trade and political influence over Asian countries against China.

President Obama said during his re-election campaign that the TPP was "creating a trade bloc with other Asian countries to put pressure on China to play by our rules".

On the security front, which also has strategic implications for the region, the Cabinet agreed to join a Washington-sponsored Proliferation Security Initiative - (PSI) to cope with weapon of mass destruction.

The Defence Ministry also did it part with a 2012 Joint Vision Statement for the Thai-US Defence Alliance when Defence Secretary Leon Panetta arrives here on tomorrow. The Cabinet endorsed this, as proposed by the ministry.

The vision statement reaffirms the strategic military alliance between Thailand and the US for security and stability in Southeast Asia. Of course, it's no secret that Thailand and the US are long-time allies. And it's hardly strange for this country to have economic, political and military cooperation.

Unfortunately, the US is not the sole superpower in the world anymore. Giant neighbour China is emerging as a new powerhouse in the region, perhaps in coming years. The 21st century belongs to China. No country on earth could turn its back to China.

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao will visit Thailand on Tuesday and Wednesday next week to reaffirm Beijing's strategic interest in the country and the region.

Unlike the US, Beijing loves to show its "soft power". Premier Wen will highlight economic, social and cultural cooperation with Thailand, rather than political and military presence.

As the host country, Thailand should be well aware of the fact that Washington and Beijing are looking at and competing with each other in all sectors. China is really worried about the US's "return" to the Asia Pacific.

But it's not easy for a country like Thailand having to fine tune and balance relations with two superpowers. An easy way to handle this situation is to give equal treatment to both of them.

And that's exactly what Premier Wen, although set to step down early next year, will expect - ie. nothing less than what Obama gets when he is in Bangkok.

-- The Nation 2012-11-14

[keemapoot]

Unlike the US, Beijing loves to show its "soft power". Premier Wen will highlight economic, social and cultural cooperation with Thailand, rather than political and military presence.

Yes, for sure, China will be mostly interested in sending humble bespectacled Chinese language teachers to Thailand, tiny nimble Chinese acrobats to the Thai Cultural Center performances, and of course, China is not interested in political and military stuff as is the U.S..

[asiawatcher]

US = 300Million, declining dollar and half the country on handouts of some form or another. Printing money to meet debt etc. War mongers and self appointed police force of the world. Politically a two party circus.

China = 1Bn plus, strong economy and RMB, holds a lot of the debt belonging to the US. Has the military capacity to match US and the labour. Politically a one party circus.

Thailand is Asian, with China as its fellow Asian neighbour and having free trade without US sanctions close to its borders, seems obvious which horse to back...

I also see the intrusion of the US into Myanmar and Thailand as grasping at straws and blind hope. Notwithstanding it is a powerful nation, its has spent way beyond its credit card limit with no hope of debt repayment and is about to get smacked across the back of its proverbial head. The US is fiscally bankrupt and for that they will pay a heavy price. I feel for all my mates there and I know many are leaving. The US may have finally realised the world does not revolve around its borders and are now scrambling to shore up the failings.

[fred007]

God Bless America.......and .......Mc Donalds

[bigbamboo]

Thailand balancing ties with superpowers? Sounds like someone's been secretly reading the King and I under the covers.

Doesn't really matter though. It's Mynamar that Obama is interested in.

[55Jay]

US' Pac Pivot efforts remind me of a clumsy teenage boy trying to remove a girls bra for the very first time, in the dark.

[Thai at Heart]

I love this phrase soft power.

One day, they will actually attack a Japanese vessel, or someone do something loopy with Taiwan, and then we see how soft their diplomacy can be.

[Thai at Heart]

I love this phrase soft power.

One day, they will actually attack a Japanese vessel, or someone do something loopy with Taiwan, and then we see how soft their diplomacy can be.

[keemapoot]

"Soft Power" has enabled China to pursue deep influence in Africa, and other developing areas. At the same time, it has enabled Chinese companies and entrepreneurs to quietly gain a strong foothold in these areas. China has been excellent in their execution of soft power, but anybody who believes it is actually "soft" should get his head examined. They will, and are, exacting their pound of flesh....

If Thailand thinks Chinese soft power is benign, they will be in for a rude awakening, as will any forum members who think big bad America is worse than "soft" China.

[timewilltell]

What's the point - the Chinese colonised Thailand many years ago and now hold the power politically and financially. Of course the masses do not know it, of course no one recognises it, but it is the reality. China has no problems here and their descendants are quite happy preventing any Westerners getting any semblance of power here by their corruption and biased laws - they truly control the Thai in every way. Of course what is a Thai now - so many (of the ones who you need to concern yourself with) - are Chinese Thai anyway - perhaps it is a whole new race within a race. More Luk Krung needed as a balance!

As for the US - they are still a real pain in the butt. Having sold the UK down the river in the 1st and 2nd World Wars, (horrible but I won't go into the politics because individuals gave their lives to help from the beginning), they are now trying to save themselves from their own demise and desperately supporting their evil financial institutions in the hope it will all go away. Time to start getting used to the taste of Chow Mein!

[tullynagardy]

Has the military capacity to match US

So far off the mark its hard to respond to. The US spends more on military than the rest of the world put together.

Chinas rise will undoubtedly slow over the next decade as the middle class grows and wage demands that go with it. (its already happening.) It will loose competitiveness and it will take some clever management to sustain its growth. Not impossible but not inevitable.

[Bagwan]

Has the military capacity to match US

So far off the mark its hard to respond to. The US spends more on military than the rest of the world put together.

Chinas rise will undoubtedly slow over the next decade as the middle class grows and wage demands that go with it. (its already happening.) It will loose competitiveness and it will take some clever management to sustain its growth. Not impossible but not inevitable.

Well their money didn't achieve much in Vietnam and isn't giving value in Afghanistan. As many a lady will tell you, it ain't what you've got that counts, it's what you do with it.

[fasteddie]

US = 300Million, declining dollar and half the country on handouts of some form or another. Printing money to meet debt etc. War mongers and self appointed police force of the world. Politically a two party circus.

China = 1Bn plus, strong economy and RMB, holds a lot of the debt belonging to the US. Has the military capacity to match US and the labour. Politically a one party circus.

Thailand is Asian, with China as its fellow Asian neighbour and having free trade without US sanctions close to its borders, seems obvious which horse to back...

I also see the intrusion of the US into Myanmar and Thailand as grasping at straws and blind hope. Notwithstanding it is a powerful nation, its has spent way beyond its credit card limit with no hope of debt repayment and is about to get smacked across the back of its proverbial head. The US is fiscally bankrupt and for that they will pay a heavy price. I feel for all my mates there and I know many are leaving. The US may have finally realised the world does not revolve around its borders and are now scrambling to shore up the failings.

'' Has the military capacity to match US''

Not even close, Americas battle fleet tonnage is greater than the next 13 largest navies combined!

War is natures way of teaching the Americans geography.

[asiawatcher]

US = 300Million, declining dollar and half the country on handouts of some form or another. Printing money to meet debt etc. War mongers and self appointed police force of the world. Politically a two party circus.

China = 1Bn plus, strong economy and RMB, holds a lot of the debt belonging to the US. Has the military capacity to match US and the labour. Politically a one party circus.

Thailand is Asian, with China as its fellow Asian neighbour and having free trade without US sanctions close to its borders, seems obvious which horse to back...

I also see the intrusion of the US into Myanmar and Thailand as grasping at straws and blind hope. Notwithstanding it is a powerful nation, its has spent way beyond its credit card limit with no hope of debt repayment and is about to get smacked across the back of its proverbial head. The US is fiscally bankrupt and for that they will pay a heavy price. I feel for all my mates there and I know many are leaving. The US may have finally realised the world does not revolve around its borders and are now scrambling to shore up the failings.

'' Has the military capacity to match US''

Not even close, Americas battle fleet tonnage is greater than the next 13 largest navies combined!

War is natures way of teaching the Americans geography.

Ships can't do much over as much land as China has. Air supremacy will be the telling factor. But the only threat to world peace in the last 30 + years has been the US. Myanmar is open for the pickings and as already stated by other OP's that is Obama's next 'target' on behalf of the Industrial Complex.

[fasteddie]

US = 300Million, declining dollar and half the country on handouts of some form or another. Printing money to meet debt etc. War mongers and self appointed police force of the world. Politically a two party circus.

China = 1Bn plus, strong economy and RMB, holds a lot of the debt belonging to the US. Has the military capacity to match US and the labour. Politically a one party circus.

Thailand is Asian, with China as its fellow Asian neighbour and having free trade without US sanctions close to its borders, seems obvious which horse to back...

I also see the intrusion of the US into Myanmar and Thailand as grasping at straws and blind hope. Notwithstanding it is a powerful nation, its has spent way beyond its credit card limit with no hope of debt repayment and is about to get smacked across the back of its proverbial head. The US is fiscally bankrupt and for that they will pay a heavy price. I feel for all my mates there and I know many are leaving. The US may have finally realised the world does not revolve around its borders and are now scrambling to shore up the failings.

'' Has the military capacity to match US''

Not even close, Americas battle fleet tonnage is greater than the next 13 largest navies combined!

War is natures way of teaching the Americans geography.

Ships can't do much over as much land as China has. Air supremacy will be the telling factor. But the only threat to world peace in the last 30 + years has been the US. Myanmar is open for the pickings and as already stated by other OP's that is Obama's next 'target' on behalf of the Industrial Complex.

ONLY ships can project a nations military might around the world! America has 11 carriers each with superior aircraft and weaponry, they WILL have air supremacy.

And by the way, it's Burma!

[Stradavarius37]

If you guys are finished playing "Who's military d$ck is bigger?" I think the topic of the thread was about influence in the region.

[Pimay1]

I love this phrase soft power.

One day, they will actually attack a Japanese vessel, or someone do something loopy with Taiwan, and then we see how soft their diplomacy can be.

Point well taken. Just ask Tibet about their so called soft power.

[tzthib]

I love this phrase soft power.

One day, they will actually attack a Japanese vessel, or someone do something loopy with Taiwan, and then we see how soft their diplomacy can be.

Point well taken. Just ask Tibet about their so called soft power.

Myanmar got a good look at this "Chinese soft power" and look where they are today ( HINT: not closer to China)

Furthermore, World opinion of Chinese influence is on a downward trajectory.

The problem with this this thread thus far is the misuse of the word "soft power". Soft power is not economic power, which is what everyone seems to be getting it mixed up with. Soft power is the type of power that influences others to do what you want because they like you. Hard power is carrots and sticks. Soft power is charisma.

Anyone who thinks China has more soft power than the US is well...stupid.China is not gaining strength because of their "superior culture" or values. Governments like China because of the MONEY. Oh, and also the fact they look the other way while strongmen govern in any way they deem fit. I can't think of very many people who admire this type of thing.

[Thai at Heart]

I love this phrase soft power.

One day, they will actually attack a Japanese vessel, or someone do something loopy with Taiwan, and then we see how soft their diplomacy can be.

Point well taken. Just ask Tibet about their so called soft power.

Myanmar got a good look at this "Chinese soft power" and look where they are today ( HINT: not closer to China)

Furthermore, World opinion of Chinese influence is on a downward trajectory.

The problem with this this thread thus far is the misuse of the word "soft power". Soft power is not economic power, which is what everyone seems to be getting it mixed up with. Soft power is the type of power that influences others to do what you want because they like you. Hard power is carrots and sticks. Soft power is charisma.

Anyone who thinks China has more soft power than the US is well...stupid.China is not gaining strength because of their "superior culture" or values. Governments like China because of the MONEY. Oh, and also the fact they look the other way while strongmen govern in any way they deem fit. I can't think of very many people who admire this type of thing.

What exactly does "soft" power mean anyway? It is simply buying your way to what you want, whilst making it appear that the deal is evenly balanced even though it isn't.

So great, go to Africa, promise bazillions in development, plus a few transfers to Switzerland, but at the end, it all comes at a cost. So, yes, China appears to have used its "soft power" to gain influence around the world, but it actually comes at a significant cost in quite short time, because it ends up annoying the locals who know that the reason for granting these so called "favours" is largely corrupt.

http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/asia-pacific/myanmar/121026/myanmar-power-play-on-irrawaddy-river?page=0,1

This helps explain why much of Burma remains dark, and why so much internal resentment has begun to build up against the Chinese. Hard figures are hard to come by, but a visitor to Burma can recognize the tell-tale click of the electrical grid shutting down and a nearby generator kicking into gear. Blackouts are common in Yangon, Mandalay and other urban centers. Meanwhile, rural Burma remains without any power at all, giving rise to a cottage industry in solar panels used to charge cell phones and computers.

So far as Burmese hydropower projects go, it appears the villagers of Pein got off light. The villagers we spoke with insisted that no physical violence ever accompanied the forced relocation of the village. According to human rights groups, this stands in stark contrast to projects within those states dominated by ethnic minorities such as the Kachin, the Shan, or the Karen peoples.

More from GlobalPost: Chasing riches in Burma? Mind the Karen guerrillas

“The military usually accompanies the Chinese as soon as they go in to do feasibility studies,” says Mang. In the past, locals have often been conscripted into hard, unpaid labor, and their villages uprooted without either compensation or, as in the case of Pein, the provision of an alternative site.

There is anecdotal evidence that this may have changed as Burmese president Thein Sein began orchestrating a rapid turn toward the West after his 2011 appointment by Senior General Than Shwe, who ruled the country for 19 years.

So at the end of it all, so called "soft power" only goes so far, because it is not far from a basic colonisation of part of a country, with very few benefits for the locals. It needs to move to a more mutually beneficial balance to work in the long run.

[tzthib]

I love this phrase soft power.

One day, they will actually attack a Japanese vessel, or someone do something loopy with Taiwan, and then we see how soft their diplomacy can be.

Point well taken. Just ask Tibet about their so called soft power.

Myanmar got a good look at this "Chinese soft power" and look where they are today ( HINT: not closer to China)

Furthermore, World opinion of Chinese influence is on a downward trajectory.

The problem with this this thread thus far is the misuse of the word "soft power". Soft power is not economic power, which is what everyone seems to be getting it mixed up with. Soft power is the type of power that influences others to do what you want because they like you. Hard power is carrots and sticks. Soft power is charisma.

Anyone who thinks China has more soft power than the US is well...stupid.China is not gaining strength because of their "superior culture" or values. Governments like China because of the MONEY. Oh, and also the fact they look the other way while strongmen govern in any way they deem fit. I can't think of very many people who admire this type of thing.

What exactly does "soft" power mean anyway? It is simply buying your way to what you want, whilst making it appear that the deal is evenly balanced even though it isn't.

So great, go to Africa, promise bazillions in development, plus a few transfers to Switzerland, but at the end, it all comes at a cost. So, yes, China appears to have used its "soft power" to gain influence around the world, but it actually comes at a significant cost in quite short time, because it ends up annoying the locals who know that the reason for granting these so called "favours" is largely corrupt.

http://www.globalpos...-river?page=0,1

So at the end of it all, so called "soft power" only goes so far, because it is not far from a basic colonisation of part of a country, with very few benefits for the locals. It needs to move to a more mutually beneficial balance to work in the long run.

The post you made about China's dealing with Burma are spot on. The Burmese grew tired of what they felt were one way agreements reminiscent of the sort "signed" in the 19th century between the imperial powers and their targets.

Economic power is hard power because you are offering the other side the "carrot" of monetary reward for going along with your plans. Joseph Nye himself said that soft power is something different. Money does not equal soft power.