Thinking About Leaving? How About You....

[Felt 35]

The truth,and thanks for good info syd Barrett.

Nationalism is the problem.

I think Thailand was going on the right direction, some up and downs, but however slowly on the way to a democratic country.

But the last three years after "love us, love us" come to power its getting to nationalistic.

History show that extreme nationalism is a dangerous thing for a country with many nationalities and mixed religion.

Hopefully they will be enlighten before it goes to far and got their own problem!

[ChiangMaiThai]

Why even bother having to ponder whether or not to leave? My wife and I are grateful to be in the position to come and go between Sydney and Bangkok whenever we want and as frequently as we want. We maintain homes in both cities and if we feel like a bit of Thailand we fly back, if we feel like a bit of Aussie we fly back etc.. etc....

Air travel and communications have made the world so much smaller that this level of transientness is easily implemented.

Can you let me in on your secret?

[ChiangMaiThai]

I've been here nearly 5 years total and speak near fluent Thai. The more I get involved with business, the more I can't believe what goes on here. Time after time, a Thai looks you in the eye and gives you a guarantee and time after time, they don't come through. If something is going to be late, they don't call in advance to let you know and apologize, they wait til you call them. If something can't be done as agreed, they don't call to inform you... Many times, they just flat out lie and then avoid you when the lie is uncovered. Finally, I continually watch well qualified friends be turned down for jobs that inevitably go to hi-so's with connections, something which seems to be the norm here.

For now, I am going to try to stick with it here; I still prefer LOS to the USA, but my love of Thailand and of Thais has definitley diminished somewhat as I get more involved with business here.

A beach house in Sydney and a flash apartment in BKK would certainly help to ease my anxiety.

[mrvietnam2001]

Mr SunbeltAsia paints a fairly optimistic picture of Thailand in the hope it will positively affect his business. Thailand asked for more FDI from European countries such as Germany as they invested too little compared to other investments goals, not a sign that everything's going as planned. An American multinational withdrew its presence out of Thailand just last week. New workpermit laws do not promote the presence of farang in Thailand, it's estimated (There's an article out of the Phuket times somewhere on this board) that many foreigners will have to leave Thailand. I don't mind SunbeltAsia promoting its business, I do mind SunbeltAsia changing to the Thai way of doing business by lying and telling untruths to consumers.

Dutchy

Agreed Mr Dutchy

Rgrds

Mr Vietnam

[plachon]

5. More honest people, the Thais although they might not steal your motorcycle helmet are terribly dishonest, everything is a wall of lies, misinformation and double pricing and bull****. The women (of any age) are as bad as men for lies and untruths.

Who sez Syd? I've had 3 motorbike helmets nicked in the past year alone. I now can't leave it on the bike for fear of it not being there when I get back, which is a right pain in the butt for like going in the Post Office, disco, etc!

[dr_Pat_Pong]

Mr SunbeltAsia paints a fairly optimistic picture of Thailand in the hope it will positively affect his business. Thailand asked for more FDI from European countries such as Germany as they invested too little compared to other investments goals, not a sign that everything's going as planned. An American multinational withdrew its presence out of Thailand just last week. New workpermit laws do not promote the presence of farang in Thailand, it's estimated (There's an article out of the Phuket times somewhere on this board) that many foreigners will have to leave Thailand. I don't mind SunbeltAsia promoting its business, I do mind SunbeltAsia changing to the Thai way of doing business by lying and telling untruths to consumers.

Dutchy

That is an offensive post from a newbie with no tact and less brain

[Sunbelt Asia]

I do mind SunbeltAsia changing to the Thai way of doing business by lying and telling untruths to consumers.

Dutchy... Care to meet with me? Our office # is 02-642-0213 I know what I'm talking about when I say the Multi-national firms are moving people here at a record pace. The relocation firms we work with are flat out non stop busy as the large firms are expanding, at least for the past two months, this is even with the Bird Flu. They were affected last year with SARS, but not now.

To say I'm lying and telling untruths is very serious allegations. I for one am up to the challenge to prove what I state, and introduce you to people that work with these firms. I did not state that some people are not leaving. I stated others are replacing them, so how did I lie, when it’s fact? Just because what I say is different than your opinion? That’s not what a Forum is all about!

The way, I see it. It’s easy to hide behind a computer and call someone a liar. I'm not hiding and I am even willing to meet you to prove a different side of the story. Sure I could be wrong in the long term but in the short term, the large firms are moving their managers in.

My belief is Thailand is changing… some people would like to believe that the economy will be hurt because of the bird flu and midnight closings of bars. In the big picture it simply won’t. It may have a temporary blimp but in the worse case scenario you still are looking at 6% growth this year. Thailand lets face it, does have an excellent infrastructure and low cost over many other SE Asia countries. They did have the best performing stock market in the World last year for a reason. Again thats my belief but I’m putting my mouth where my money is. I’m expanding as well by going into two more ventures on Sukhumvit. I for one believe in the future Thailand and I know other companies do as well.

By the way, a good economy does not help Sunbelt Asia... believe or not. A recession is better for the business brokerage as people are laid off and are looking for security. They then decide to become the Boss. Twenty years I've been in this industry and more business transfers take place when the economy turns down and buyers become more motivated as they want to buy low. Good times and no one wants to leave their job as they have big bonuses. I for one, don't worry about it, cycles come and go. It’s the big picture I look at.

Greg Lange

02-642-0213

[ChiangMaiThai]

My belief is Thailand is changing… some people would like to believe that the economy will be hurt because of the bird flu and midnight closings of bars. In the big picture it simply won’t. It may have a temporary blimp but in the worse case scenario you still are looking at 6% growth this year. Thailand lets face it, does have an excellent infrastructure and low cost over many other SE Asia countries. They did have the best performing stock market in the World last year for a reason. Again thats my belief but I’m putting my mouth where my money is. I’m expanding as well by going into two more ventures on Sukhumvit. I for one believe in the future Thailand and I know other companies do as well.

I know people who would argue just as passionatley as Sunbelt Asia that this booming economy is all the product of a credit bubble that will soon burst. I myself have no idea so I'll keep quiet on the subject. However, what is clear is that the longer you stay here and the more Thai you speak, the more you realize how much deception, lying and avoidance of problems that there is. There also seems to be a real problem here in accepting personal responsibility for one's actions or standing by what one says. As I've said, I still prefer LOS to USA, but the romantic stage has long since passed.

[Sunbelt Asia]

As for your personal feelings on Thais in general. Yes I've heard this before and even have experienced it. Still the violence here is a lot less than LA and pick up the paper in LA, you'll find just as much deception, if not more. I have found though many Thais though to be good people. Several times by accident, I've drop money on the street and Thais pointed out I had done so.

As for the bubble, there is established economic theory on the nature of long economic cycle swings – whether driven by asset-credit expansion or by real gains in productivity and productive wealth. Thailand is not passing through a pure asset and credit bubble driven by a pure monetary phenomenon, in my view. I believe Thailand is creating real productive wealth through capital creation. It is starting to reap productivity gains from the newly created productive wealth, niche winners in non-mass manufacturing, and greater economic efficiency through government reforms. The super economic cycle created by Khun Thaksin is a real and very strong business cycle, in my view. You cannot rule out sporadic overheating in the asset markets, this is a byproduct rather than a source of the strong upswing. Thailand is in the golden years at least until 2008 in my opinion. Time will tell, if I'm right.

[ChiangMaiThai]

As for your personal feelings on Thais in general. Yes I've heard this before and even have experienced it. Still the violence here is a lot less than LA and pick up the paper in LA, you'll find just as much deception, if not more. I have found though many Thais though to be good people. Several times by accident, I've drop money on the street and Thais pointed out I had done so.

I'm scared to even drive through LA at night, while I would feel fine walking in bangkok...

Of course there is deception everywhere. But here it seems to be a special breed, especially to the naive farang who sees a big smile and a hears a big promise and is put at ease.

[Sunbelt Asia]

But here it seems to be a special breed, especially to the naive farang who sees a big smile and a hears a big promise and is put at ease.

Yes, I agree... this I've seen happen. I've even seen it up close and personal. Too close, I might add :-)

But live and learn.

[NedKelly]

It does not matter where in the world we go. Home will always be where we started and if we return home after sometime away we will always leave part of us behind in the other place. So, it is normal to have feelings that unsettle us. I dont believe that all this deception and so on people have mentioned is aimed at foreigners alone. I beleive it is an ingrained phenomena that will affect all people - thai included ! We are the lucky ones who can get pissed off and make a decisionto return home. If yo uwere Thai and got pissed off becasue someone ripped you off, there would probably be no option but to get on with life. You would not be thinking - oh Thailand has changed I'm goin home !!

Ever noticed how Thai people might appear to be quite rude to others - for example in a restaurant when ordering, the interaction at times seems a bit blunt - well there may be a number of reasons for this and one of them is that if you are outside the circle of friends and family then you are not of great value. So my poiunt is that even Thai people will cheat each other or at least be ruthless in dealings when it comes to money. To us it may appear horribly rude, but to them it is normal. For farang to adapt to this way would be extremely difficult.

[penelope]

Why even bother having to ponder whether or not to leave? My wife and I are grateful to be in the position to come and go between Sydney and Bangkok whenever we want and as frequently as we want. We maintain homes in both cities and if we feel like a bit of Thailand we fly back, if we feel like a bit of Aussie we fly back etc.. etc....

Air travel and communications have made the world so much smaller that this level of transientness is easily implemented.

Can you let me in on your secret?

No secret, just common sense and elbow grease.

Study hard,work hard,set goals,invest your money wisely,generate passive income etc.......

[davidm]

I believe Thailand is creating real productive wealth through capital creation. It is starting to reap productivity gains from the newly created productive wealth, niche winners in non-mass manufacturing, and greater economic efficiency through government reforms. The super economic cycle created by Khun Thaksin is a real and very strong business cycle, in my view. You cannot rule out sporadic overheating in the asset markets, this is a byproduct rather than a source of the strong upswing. Thailand is in the golden years at least until 2008 in my opinion. Time will tell, if I'm right.

You've given an honest opinion in a clear and straightforward manner, but I believe you are wrong. More than wrong. Misled.

For the past 20 years, Thailand's economy has gradually shifted from primarily agriculture to a combination of agro-industry and assembly of goods manufactured in Japan, Taiwan and a few other developed countries. Many other third world countries have followed this route to prosperity, and so did Japan and Taiwan for that matter.

They key to further progress from cheap labour assembly to more advanced industry is investing profits from the assembly joints into educating workers to be more productive and R&D in new industries and locally made goods. Thais splurged the money made from the good times on concrete and corruption. And ran up huge debts in the process.

The average factory worker is still semi-literate and operates at practically the same productivity levels as his predecessor 10-15 years ago. If productivity hasn't improved how can you have sustainable economic growth? If the business leaders haven't learnt enough of the lessons from the previous crisis who is to say history won't repeat itself in the near future?

One other point. There are no economic figures for Thailand. Period. They are all made up. If you don't believe me, go to whichever government department you want and ask for the latest figures for whatever. Those latest figures are probably a couple of years old, by the way. Then, cross check with another department and see if the figures match, or even come close. (Figures from foreign companies about what they are doing are an exception.) Without reliable figures, how can we be sure what is really happening?

niche winners in non-mass manufacturing

are all very well, but no replacement for real industry. The entire country can't make handicrafts.

[Dutchy]

I believe Thailand is creating real productive wealth through capital creation. It is starting to reap productivity gains from the newly created productive wealth, niche winners in non-mass manufacturing, and greater economic efficiency through government reforms. The super economic cycle created by Khun Thaksin is a real and very strong business cycle, in my view. You cannot rule out sporadic overheating in the asset markets, this is a byproduct rather than a source of the strong upswing. Thailand is in the golden years at least until 2008 in my opinion. Time will tell, if I'm right.

Nice words but not realistic again, the well known economist Dr. Ammar Siamwalla has a different vision of the Thai economy and populist policies of Thaksin. Thai productivity has been given the lowest rating in an article in the Bangkok Post today out of a three point scale, Japanese investors complain about Thai productivity. Could you suport your opinion with some fact or research please?

What you mean with productive wealth is further a mystery to me and what you call the 'super economic cycle' need further explanation. Thaksin's populist policies have one thing in common, they're not funded out of participants' performance, the governmnet subsidizes everything, from hospitals to small villages. And appointing village headmen instead of electing them by a democratic process is the latest outrageous proposal of our dear leader. Thais fall for it because of the money, foreign reporters are more critical.

I'm a bit surprised to see such an optimistic picture based on what actually?

Cheers

Dutchy

[Georgie-Porgie]

I believe Thailand is creating real productive wealth through capital creation. It is starting to reap productivity gains from the newly created productive wealth, niche winners in non-mass manufacturing, and greater economic efficiency through government reforms. The super economic cycle created by Khun Thaksin is a real and very strong business cycle, in my view. You cannot rule out sporadic overheating in the asset markets, this is a byproduct rather than a source of the strong upswing. Thailand is in the golden years at least until 2008 in my opinion. Time will tell, if I'm right.

Nice words but not realistic again, the well known economist Dr. Ammar Siamwalla has a different vision of the Thai economy and populist policies of Thaksin. Thai productivity has been given the lowest rating in an article in the Bangkok Post today out of a three point scale, Japanese investors complain about Thai productivity. Could you suport your opinion with some fact or research please?

What you mean with productive wealth is further a mystery to me and what you call the 'super economic cycle' need further explanation. Thaksin's populist policies have one thing in common, they're not funded out of participants' performance, the governmnet subsidizes everything, from hospitals to small villages. And appointing village headmen instead of electing them by a democratic process is the latest outrageous proposal of our dear leader. Thais fall for it because of the money, foreign reporters are more critical.

I'm a bit surprised to see such an optimistic picture based on what actually?

Cheers

Dutchy

Excuse me guys, but I think that I am lost. Where the he11 is the Bear-pit?

[Sunbelt Asia]

With all due respect to Dr. Ammar Siamwalla, two main reasons why these are the Golden Years…

1. . In the past several years, projects have been targeted either at converting dead capital into productive capital, or enabling the capital-deficient areas to form capital. These sectors include the urban poor, rural, resources, SME, and government ie: the Village Fund project, the Capital Creation Scheme; Housing Projects, One Tambon Project, SME Development Initiatives, State-Enterprise Privatization , Vayupak Mutual Fund.

All these projects are either in the process of being implemented or are still in their early years, and as they are structured for a multiple year lifespan, the impact has not exerted its full force yet. As well, these capital creation projects are substantial in size, and in their durable impact on the economy and market which will be enormous, around USD75 billion into the economy.

#2 Thailand is reforming the mass manufacturing export model with a thriving collection of local enterprises offering new “exportable” goods and services. These local economic winners are leveraging Thailand’s local skills and resources to differentiate themselves in world markets and thus exert pricing power Both the export trend and contribution of SMEs to the economy are providing encouraging signs that are not hard to decipher. First, goods exports expanded 11.3% in 2002, and despite the setback of SARS, it grew a respectable 11.8% in 1H2003 and 16.6 % in 2H2003. In December exports were up 31%! It looks to grow 15% this year even with the Bird Flu. SMEs now account for about 40% of exports and, more importantly, SME exports expanded at a faster rate than those from the mass-manufacturing sector.

These factors support a long upswing, I see the Thai economy, which only started to speed up in 2002, continuing to grow swiftly until at least 2007-08. GDP growth should be at least 7% this year and possibly 10% next year. This is why the multi-national firms are expanding their staff in Thailand and the energy is in the air.

[Maverick]

I'm a bit surprised to see such an optimistic picture based on what actually?

Cheers

Dutchy

It would appear that Sunbelts views are based on Sunbelts business activity rather than published and verifiable stats. I am hearing conflicting comments about the future recruitment plans of overseas companies but I guess one can at the end of the day only judge by the information available and if it happens to be via a business buying and selling businesses thats a pretty good source (of those available). Recruitment firms are excellent barometers for overeas recruitment activity - why not conduct a survey Mr Sunbelt?

[mrvietnam2001]

Still the violence here is a lot less than LA

I believe Thailand is creating real productive wealth through capital creation.Time will tell, if I'm right.

Depends on where in LA you're thinking about obviously. Or is it, obvious to you?

#2 Capital Creation? How so?

Off topic, no I don't have interest or time to meet you.

Mr Vietnam

[davidm]

Nothing to do with me, Dutchy. I was arguing that productivity in Thailand hasn't improved in years.

[DaveYo]

I read of the posts Syd, Ken and DavidM wrote about the Philippines.

I myself was married to a Philippino for 13 years!!! So I know Manila very well and also know that some of the things in the Philippines that were said is true and others not true.

Being a foreigner in the Philippines they still look at you like the ATM machine period. They double or triple prices once they see your face. I know so because it always happened to me.

Secondly if you travel to the outskirts outside of Manila you better know the region you are going to, because when you exit Manila the language changes to different dialects and the people outside of Manila if your not careful can harm you in many more ways than I care to think.

Pick pockets in Manila is so common you cannot put your money in a wallet. They are better than the gypsys in Italy.

The Government is much more stable now than in Thailand. It is a Democratic process. Reason for the revolt, was Dictatorship. People got tired of it and the curfews and lack of freedom.

PNP is one of the best there. They do not like foreigners getting ripped from their locals. I know so because I have a sister in law that works for them under the Generals. And I know those Generals there personally. As of the Police they have several kinds, one is the Brown and the other is the Chocolate boys. Try messing with the Chocolate boys. They have a height criteria and weight criteria. None of them are under 6'2" tall and none of them weigh less than 210 pounds. The Brown boys are similar to the traffic cops in Bangkok.

As of money, Philippines is half less than in USA. In other words going the USA standard, say item here costs 600, in manila it is around 350. With the currency exchange rates, now it favors the dollar. You get more peso for the dollars, but you still have to pay almost the same for goods in terms of usa money.

Pollution in Manila, at one time it was so bad one got sick within two weeks of carbon monoxide poisoning from diesel fumes. Now that is changing for the better.

Traffic jams used to be really bad, now it is getting much better with better highways being built.

Overall living, yes if you live on the outskirts of Manila, it is nice and of course they have a sewer and water system like usa, and thailand is still a ways down the road in this department.

You can open a business in Philippines, or work for someone in the Philippines without a problem and the rules are not as strict as it is in Thailand. You can own property and homes in the Philippines where as in thailand you cannot do.

So one has to balance out things but the cultures between Thailand and Philippines is different and beliefs are different. Philippines follow the Catholic theology where as Thailand follows Buddism.

Depends on how one looks at the two countries. Overall if one wants property and homes in their names and some decent income, to stay long term without hassles leaving and returning, to open a business and own it without hassles, then Philippines is the choice. Only draw back is your income and the goods is not stretched as far as it is in Thailand. Philippines uses 220 volts as their electricity and they are under the PAL system as of entertainment. Their phone system is totally different too.

I can vouch for this much and other things which is too numerous to mention here.

Oh also I have tried to convince my current wife of this, but she does not like the Philippines for reasons not mentioned. So in a sense I am in the middle regarding the living arrangements. Also you are dealing with an earthquake country since the country is right smack on the Ring of Fire line.

Daveyoti

[mrvietnam2001]

Hi Dave,

Thank you for your report on the PI. I was at one point looking to buy an island there. I would have happily done so until I found out that you cannot own property in the PI (we can't) It's the same scam as Thailand in that you can certainly put up the money, and have it in your "wifes" name.

That's not cool.

Rgrds

Mr V

[davidm]

Very slick and lucid response, Sunbelt, but do you really believe these programmes will have a major, positive impact on the economy? The village funds have been spent and now the villagers are one million baht in debt. What have they got to show for it?

As I said before, the entire country can't make handicrafts. Even if they could, Indonesia and Burma are cheaper and make nicer crafts. In fact, a lot of the handicrafts exported from Thailand originated in Burma, Indonesia or Vietnam. I speak as one of the importers/exporters.

On the same subject, one should bear in mind that productivity in this sector is extremely hard to improve because of the nature of the work. This also limits the growth potential.

Housing projects are part of a property speculation cycle. Most of these buildings will remain unoccupied like their predecessors. They will not benefit the economy.

As you point out, these programmes are still at a fairly early stage, so their full impact on the economy won't be felt for a while longer. Agreed. But the impact of debt and speculation will be negative.

The figures you quote are impressive. Until you bear in mind that they were made up and bear little or no resemblance to reality. As I said before, there are no reliable figures and you should know better than to quote government statements ad verbatim. This is the same mistake a number of so-called analysts made during the previous stock market boom. Look what happened later.

I think 2007, maybe a year earlier, is when everything will unravel. It takes time for a speculative bubble to reach bursting point. In the run up, we shall probably be bombarded with articles about how the Thai economy will breach the G7 within the next ten years and similar nonsense.

It's safe to say we disagree. I respect the fact that you have interpreted data differently to me based on your own extensive experience in Thailand. Let's see who's right.

[Dove]

Have been considering moving on to Malaysia. Been spending some time there.

I guess the novelty of exotic Thailand is wearing out as it modernizes, the culture is fairly westernize in the city. People are getting very materialistic.

Malaysia although Westernize is quite laid back, despite what it is said about extremist religious behaviour in some parts in the North, the states of Johore, Malacca, Penang are alright. If you like the sea Kuantan is beautiful.

Almost everybody speaks English, education for the kids is alright too although better in Singapore but then again Singapore is too much of a city. However, it is a very safe country.

No, it is not that I am starting to dislike Thailand, I still love the place but I sometimes feel that it is time to be moving on again.

Kuala Lumpur is a nice place too but very much more expensive than Bangkok. Very cosmopolitan, good nite spots, land of opportunity if you where to dig for 'gold', also the goverment is changing and housing is cheap.

[Sunbelt Asia]

Recruitment firms are excellent barometers for overeas recruitment activity - why not conduct a survey Mr Sunbelt?

Yes I agree and the well respected ones along with relocation firms here in Bangkok are very busy at this time and have been since November 2003.

[Sunbelt Asia]

#2 Capital Creation? How so?

For example, the state enterprise privatization and recap program is expected to create US$20 billion worth of newly listed or unlisted financial capital for the Thai market till 2005.

The Housing Project for the low income masses will potentially expand aggregate output by about US$25 billion from 2003 to 2007.

The Capital Creation Scheme, in the next 6-7 years, could convert at least US$10 billion of dead capital into pledgible capital and transfer US$15 billion worth of black economy activities into the real economy.

The latest Vayupak initiative could eventually convert several US$ billion worth of dead capital held by the government and mobilize an additional several US$ billion worth of excess liquidity from the banking system. In all, it could add US$7-8 billion, or an additional 10% to the market cap of Thailand.

USD75 Billion, this is lot of money for a small country like Thailand!

[Sunbelt Asia]

Thai productivity has been given the lowest rating in an article in the Bangkok Post today out of a three point scale

You misred the catagory. It's " Productive labor practices" They were not grading productivity.

http://www.bangkokpost.com/120204_Business...b2004_biz61.php

[wcr]

This just goes to show how people can read different things into the same set of figures or cicumstances. This is the same the world over. So called experts will take a set of facts and turn them into something to suit thier own arguments.

I am a business owner in Thailand, I started 10 months ago. I have had many frustrations doing business here, and working within the Thai structure which is so different to Europe. However I am settling down now and my business is doing ok. I have actually just listed my business with Sunbelt looking for a partner to join me to develop my business further.

I can understand some posters comments here about the corruption etc in this country. It is truely frightening to me. I was a police officer in the UK for a few years and this countrys way of working goes against the grain for me. However for the time being Thailand is where I choose to be and would rather be here than in the UK at the moment. I am not sure what I will feel in 2 or 3 years time. I have heard to many stories, (true ones), about things that have happened to individuals as the have upset someone at some stage. Just today I decided not to get involved in a project being run in Pattaya to help ex-pats/tourists who get into trouble with the law as it would expose me to the powers that be. Not that I am doing anything illegal, (far from it), but that is what this country is like. You have to be very carefull who you talk to, or get involved with as you can be completely ruined here very easily. This is what makes me feel uneasy about living in this country and to have a police force you cannot trust is completely alien to me.

[Bluecat]

I have heard too many stories, (true ones),

Me, too,...

And even untrue ones,...

Scary, isn't it?

I'm packing. See you in Cambodia,...

[mrvietnam2001]

I have heard too many stories, (true ones),

Me, too,...

And even untrue ones,...

Scary, isn't it?

I'm packing. See you in Cambodia,...

From the frying pan to the fire? An uncle of my wife was heavily involved in silk trading in Cambodia. He was also a "somebody" in the government there.

His entire family was murdered. He is now in Australia.

Be careful man.

Rgrds

Mr Vietnam