Australian Scientist Warns Superflu Pandemic

[george]

Australian scientist warns superflu pandemic 1,000 times worse than SARS

SYDNEY (AFP) - An Australian scientist involved in the World Health Organisation fight against SARS in China said Friday a new pandemic resulting from bird flu combining with a human flu could be a thousand times worse than SARS.

Professor John MacKenzie of Brisbane's University of Queensland, said the chances of a new pandemic strain arising are still ''very small,'' but the chances of a new pandemic starting now are greater than at any time since the last one in 1968.

''Things are happening with the bird flu which are unprecedented and we have far more outbreaks and in more countries than is usual,'' he told AFP. ''I think this is the worst scenario possible and it does concern me enormously.''

He described Severe Acute Respiratory Sydnrome (SARS), which killed some 700 people in Asia, as ''a wake-up call'' about what could happen with influenza.

''What I'm saying is that a new pandemic strain of flu, should it arise, would be a thousand times worse than SARS,'' he said.

MacKenzie, a microbiologist, led the first World Health Organisation mission to Beijing in March last year as international fight against the pneumonia-like virus was stepped up.

His latest warning came as the death toll from the bird flu crisis rose to 17 after a 16-year-old girl died in Vietnam's southern capital of Ho Chi Minh City, taking the number of human infections in the country to 16, all but four of whom have already died. Two have recovered and two remain in hospital.

Thailand, where five people have died, is the only other country to have so far confirmed human infections of the highly pathogenic H5N1 strain of bird flu.

Although health authorities are confident Australia's defences against bird flu are such that it is highly unlikely it will reach Australia, MacKenzie says no country will be spared if a global pandemic arises. ''Every country would get it,'' he said.

He said there had been no pandemic since the 1968 Hong Kong flu which was believed to have originated from a cross-infection of human and avian virus strains in Asia.

''The risks are hard to define, but nevertheless the risks have to be greater when you can actually see large outbreaks occurring of an avian virus affecting humans.''

--AFP 2004-02-06