STREETWISE

The New Year looms frighteningly

Achara Deboonme

BANGKOK: -- There are three weeks to go before New Year arrives, but some executives of foreign companies have already left the office and will return only after the end of December. They have jobs that most of us envy, having so much time to unwind after the long year and prepare for the next one ahead.

As the year ends, many people with savings are busy looking for the best long-term equity funds or retirement mutual funds, to reduce their tax burden. Many have already ordered cars, before the government's first-buyer scheme ends. Some individuals and companies are busy looking at lists of charitable organisations, to see if donations to them can be tax deductible.

To some, the New Year is full of promises. Like many other countries in Asia, Thailand's economic outlook is bright. Brokerage houses forecast the SET index to surpass 1,400 points next year. Though the baht may appreciate against the US dollar the economy as a whole should show grow by 4-5 per cent. That's a big growth rate, considering that the euro zone will show a contraction.

Next year, labourers nationwide will enjoy a big wage hike, while many young workers may land a new job with better pay, even in light of the tight labour market in some fields. While engineers fresh from university earn more than Bt20,000 a month, a seasoned graphic designer can make as much as Bt50,000 now, according to a pay survey released last week. Some accountants can make Bt200,000 a month. Some may look forward to starting a new and better-paid job next year.

Yet, not everyone will be that happy. According to the Bank of Thailand's labour survey, export-oriented manufacturing firms have already downsized their workforces to cope with falling export demand. Needless to say, the US economy will zigzag between optimism and pessimism. To date, it remains unclear whether the Democrats and Republicans can reconcile on the "fiscal cliff", which could suck some US$600 billion out of the US economy next year and shave the country's economic growth by as much as 2 per cent.

With prolonged negotiations as well as split opinions among euro-zone finance ministers and the International Monetary Fund over the previous bailout to Greece, it seems the euro's day is numbered. Both the IMF and European Central Bank foresee economic contraction next year, but the contraction will be far less worrying than the repercussions of a euro-zone breakup.

In the end, all eyes will remain on China, the engine of growth for Asia and the world. It will be a big challenge for China to rebalance its growth, to reduce its dependence on exports. In addition, rising inequality also poses an acute challenge for the country.

At home, Thais could soon suffer more political conflict, as Pheu Thai renews its bid to amend the Constitution. We well remember that the last attempt brought about heated debate in Parliament as well as public dissent. How this will affect the country and the general mood, particularly when Thailand is falling in the competitiveness rankings, nobody yet knows. Certainly, the power blackout in Koh Samui served as a crucial reminder: Thailand's infrastructure is still in poor condition, as the political power struggle makes long-term planning impossible. Will renewed fighting affect the planned infrastructure investment that should lift Thailand's attractiveness among foreign investors?

To a journalist like me, 2013 looms dreadfully. External factors aside, I have to deal with a frightening internal feud. It was just last week that I was officially named the fifth editor of The Nation, which this year celebrated its 42th anniversary. It is a big challenge. On the face of it, a job promotion is always good. But looking at what is coming next year, I feel a heavy burden now. Yes, to all my sources, they should be prepared for frequent calls from me.

To prepare for the new job, I have found myself extremely busy over the past month as the transition kicked off. The what-to-do list is lengthy and I feel that my blood pressure is rising.

For now, I feel I have so little time to relax, let alone time to shop for LTFs or to make donations. Reviewing my resolutions for 2012 is absolutely out of question. Well, that can wait and should wait, given that I believe I have achieved so few things.

Hopefully, I can finish the to-do list in time for 2013. Somehow, late Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping set a good example: he said leaders in his time should not worry much about the conflict over territorial claims in the South China Sea, which could be passed on to later generations. The issue had been dead for decades, only to come alive again suddenly.

Still, I believe that we all deserve to anticipate something better to come with the New Year.

-- The Nation 2012-12-11

If things don't change ,they will remain the same , happy 2013 to all political parties and all their members, especially the current members in government, I am looking forward to you keeping us all entertained in the coming year L.O.S.

Thread of the year last year was all the TV experts predicting that TS would be home by December 2011.

I've decided to not listen to predictions from TV members.

That's my New Year resolution.

I'm so tired of the picking on foreigners in Thailand. From double pricing to blaming us for all sorts of ills - it is so tedious. And now we have Khun Achara, soon to be Editor of The Nation, starting the article with the dig that foreign executives have already left for a long Christmas break. Completely irrelevant to anything else written, a gross generalization and such bad journalism. I would expect better from an Editor.

What a funny Editorial. So we have the new Editor, kicking off by writing an article, saying that he faces the job with trepidation, he feels a heavy burden before the job starts, he is frightened, he is of a nervous disposition, he is medically unfit, he is unable to delegate, he is unable to find capacity for even the simplest of mental processes such as review resolutions for 2012 (don't know about you, but for me it takes as much time as a coffee would do...yep done that, nope didn't do that, why, now what etc), and seems to write an entire Editorial so that he can fit one random quote in from a Chinese Leader at the end. It seems the staff of the Nation should be facing the next year with a 'looming sense of fright'.

Cue, drama music, followed by violins and sympathy....not! Mr Editor, how about you just get some journalists to investigate the hundreds of stories out there, offered on a plate by the politicians, and get the journo's to tell the truth. When I think of some quality journo's now back in the UK, ready to take their own lives because they have to run another story on what is on the christmas shopping list of Mrs Rooney or Beckham, when out here in Thailand there is enough opportunity for a real investigative journalist to last a full career.

First I would say that the article reads well, BUT when I got to this ... " Some accountants can make Bt200,000 a month."... well you lost me. Just a nicely worded crock of buffalo manure! Keep up the good work and happy New Year!

here in Thailand there is enough opportunity for a real investigative journalist to last a full career.

Except when they start digging too deep they will be killed or disappeared. The golden rule is never break someone's rice bowl here.

Not to mention they will be criminally charged for anything they say about people with power and influence. They can't name names or point fingers.

In fact, in Thailand the only opportunity to stay alive and out of prison is to not be an investigative type of journalist.

Even here in the food forums they do not allow negative reviews of restaurants.

That's the reality folks.

What a funny Editorial. So we have the new Editor, kicking off by writing an article, saying that he faces the job with trepidation, he feels a heavy burden before the job starts, he is frightened, he is of a nervous disposition, he is medically unfit, he is unable to delegate, he is unable to find capacity for even the simplest of mental processes such as review resolutions for 2012 (don't know about you, but for me it takes as much time as a coffee would do...yep done that, nope didn't do that, why, now what etc), and seems to write an entire Editorial so that he can fit one random quote in from a Chinese Leader at the end. It seems the staff of the Nation should be facing the next year with a 'looming sense of fright'.

Cue, drama music, followed by violins and sympathy....not! Mr Editor, how about you just get some journalists to investigate the hundreds of stories out there, offered on a plate by the politicians, and get the journo's to tell the truth. When I think of some quality journo's now back in the UK, ready to take their own lives because they have to run another story on what is on the christmas shopping list of Mrs Rooney or Beckham, when out here in Thailand there is enough opportunity for a real investigative journalist to last a full career.

Actually Achara Deboonme, the new editor is a Thai lady. If you read the Opinion pages of The Nation she is there and the photo in the article is not the same as the one in the thread, or at least it wasn't at 6.30 this morning.

Edited by me for terrible spelling errors.

Edited December 11, 201213 yr by billd766

Up here in Chiang Mai so many small businesses are on the verge of going under. A lot of yesterday's unsold food being sold today....Well at least the vendor's are trying to sell it. The joint is really in hock and it's going to an interesting 2013.

I'm so tired of the picking on foreigners in Thailand. From double pricing to blaming us for all sorts of ills - it is so tedious. And now we have Khun Achara, soon to be Editor of The Nation, starting the article with the dig that foreign executives have already left for a long Christmas break. Completely irrelevant to anything else written, a gross generalization and such bad journalism. I would expect better from an Editor.

I don't feel someone picking on me and it is true that many start early.....I leave on the 15th....

What a funny Editorial. So we have the new Editor, kicking off by writing an article, saying that he faces the job with trepidation, he feels a heavy burden before the job starts, he is frightened, he is of a nervous disposition, he is medically unfit, he is unable to delegate, he is unable to find capacity for even the simplest of mental processes such as review resolutions for 2012 (don't know about you, but for me it takes as much time as a coffee would do...yep done that, nope didn't do that, why, now what etc), and seems to write an entire Editorial so that he can fit one random quote in from a Chinese Leader at the end. It seems the staff of the Nation should be facing the next year with a 'looming sense of fright'.

Cue, drama music, followed by violins and sympathy....not! Mr Editor, how about you just get some journalists to investigate the hundreds of stories out there, offered on a plate by the politicians, and get the journo's to tell the truth. When I think of some quality journo's now back in the UK, ready to take their own lives because they have to run another story on what is on the christmas shopping list of Mrs Rooney or Beckham, when out here in Thailand there is enough opportunity for a real investigative journalist to last a full career.

What's so great about UK-related journalism? I wouldn't exactly call it "quality."

I thought we all die on 21st December?

Thread of the year last year was all the TV experts predicting that TS would be home by December 2011.

I've decided to not listen to predictions from TV members.

That's my New Year resolution.

You're right! The anti-Thaksin sentiment in the country is indeed stronger than even TV members anticipated.

here in Thailand there is enough opportunity for a real investigative journalist to last a full career.

Except when they start digging too deep they will be killed or disappeared. The golden rule is never break someone's rice bowl here.

Not to mention they will be criminally charged for anything they say about people with power and influence. They can't name names or point fingers.

In fact, in Thailand the only opportunity to stay alive and out of prison is to not be an investigative type of journalist.

Even here in the food forums they do not allow negative reviews of restaurants.

That's the reality folks.

True much as I dislike the phoniness in the articles the Nation puts out they are indeed handicapped. I much prefer the paper sold in Bangkok that we are not supposed to quote out of.

They at least do a little research before they post an item. The nation has a policy of make the headline attention grabbing and then meander around in the article.

Thread of the year last year was all the TV experts predicting that TS would be home by December 2011.

I've decided to not listen to predictions from TV members.

That's my New Year resolution.

Thread of the year last year 2 years ago was all the TV experts predicting that TS would be home by December 2011. 2010.

Is the New Year looming frighteningly? I don't think so.

The pessimism in this article takes a different view of Political interaction between an elected Government and Opposition than I would.

This is not political conflict, no-body's suffering due to political intrigue, there is no political power struggle, renewed fighting, frightening internal feud....It is Politics as usual, and occurs in most Parliamentary Democracies. Why should the Thai context be characterized as armageddon......Whoa, time for perspective here.

Sure, constitutional reform brought heated debate in Parliament...so what. Doesn't everything.

Is there a tad of a sense that when this Opposition is not governing, everything must be going to ".... in a hand-basket".

Ms. Y and company are doing just fine, and should that change, the next election will take care of it.

Wot's the problem?

Edited December 11, 201213 yr by righteous

Is the New Year looming frighteningly? I don't think so.

The pessimism in this article takes a different view of Political interaction between an elected Government and Opposition than I would.

This is not political conflict, no-body's suffering due to political intrigue, there is no political power struggle, renewed fighting, frightening internal feud....It is Politics as usual, and occurs in most Parliamentary Democracies. Why should the Thai context be characterized as armageddon......Whoa, time for perspective here.

Sure, constitutional reform brought heated debate in Parliament...so what. Doesn't everything.

Is there a tad of a sense that when this Opposition is not governing, everything must be going to ".... in a hand-basket".

Ms. Y and company are doing just fine, and should that change, the next election will take care of it.

Wot's the problem?

Yep.

Is the New Year looming frighteningly? I don't think so.

The pessimism in this article takes a different view of Political interaction between an elected Government and Opposition than I would.

This is not political conflict, no-body's suffering due to political intrigue, there is no political power struggle, renewed fighting, frightening internal feud....It is Politics as usual, and occurs in most Parliamentary Democracies. Why should the Thai context be characterized as armageddon......Whoa, time for perspective here.

Sure, constitutional reform brought heated debate in Parliament...so what. Doesn't everything.

Is there a tad of a sense that when this Opposition is not governing, everything must be going to ".... in a hand-basket".

Ms. Y and company are doing just fine, and should that change, the next election will take care of it.

Wot's the problem?

Yep.

yep 2

...no-body's suffering due to political intrigue..

That has got to be the understatement of the decade.

Since 2000 - Thailand has had a poorer performance, in relative terms, compared to it's neighbours.

Have a look at http://www.indexmundi.com/facts/indicators/NY.GNP.PCAP.CD/compare?country=th#country=kh:id:my:th

Since 2000, up until now, Thai minimum wages were practically at a stand still.

In fact, in real value terms, minimum wages declined during 2000 - 2011.

Do you think the situation was the same in neighbouring countries?

And since 2000 - political violence, division of people and political manipulation has been an everyday story.

Not to mention extra-judicial killings, violent unconstitutional and undemocratic attempts to throw out the opposition from office (UDD 2010), numerous manipulations of the courts (Thaksin 2001, Cake Bribe 2008 etc etc) and countless lies to everyone and anyone.

Nobody's suffering due to political intrigue, huh?

Me thinks that the poor people of Thailand, and in fact probably all Thais(except maybe the Thaksin gang) would have been far better off without that "political intrigue".

What a funny Editorial. So we have the new Editor, kicking off by writing an article, saying that he faces the job with trepidation, he feels a heavy burden before the job starts, he is frightened, he is of a nervous disposition, he is medically unfit, he is unable to delegate, he is unable to find capacity for even the simplest of mental processes such as review resolutions for 2012 (don't know about you, but for me it takes as much time as a coffee would do...yep done that, nope didn't do that, why, now what etc), and seems to write an entire Editorial so that he can fit one random quote in from a Chinese Leader at the end. It seems the staff of the Nation should be facing the next year with a 'looming sense of fright'.

Cue, drama music, followed by violins and sympathy....not! Mr Editor, how about you just get some journalists to investigate the hundreds of stories out there, offered on a plate by the politicians, and get the journo's to tell the truth. When I think of some quality journo's now back in the UK, ready to take their own lives because they have to run another story on what is on the christmas shopping list of Mrs Rooney or Beckham, when out here in Thailand there is enough opportunity for a real investigative journalist to last a full career.

What's so great about UK-related journalism? I wouldn't exactly call it "quality."

Compared with?

What's the end of the year without a bit of pessimism?

Thread of the year last year was all the TV experts predicting that TS would be home by December 2011.

I've decided to not listen to predictions from TV members.

That's my New Year resolution.

Be nice. The gloomers and doomers are having a rough time everywhere except posting on Thai Visa. Reality is starting to rear it's ugly successful head as the end of the year nears and tourist numbers, industry numbers, and the general well being of the Thai economy make its way in even the most strident of the anti government newspapers. Check out the 23 million tourist arrival thread. It's killing em. Tears, tears and more tears. Thailand is OK. Ve ver wrong Hansel und Gretel vot vill ve do?