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Posted

chiang mai:

Elton John is very close friends with the royals hence his appointment was

not political, I believe the friendship originated with Dianna.

Presumably your questions are an exploration as to how you might acquire

a knighthood, the bigger challenge might be convincing Prince Charles

to come to Pattaya to administer the award and say, arise Sir Naam.

i'm not a Brit and could only get awarded with an honourary

knighthood which would be a demotion as i was fully knighted by Mrs Naam

a long time ago.

for what it's worth... check the root of the word "knight" and learn that it is the ancient germanic "Knehtaz", modern German "Knecht" meaning "serf / servant".

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Posted

""""Brit Banks In £1bn-Plus 'Asian Sibor Probe'

Last Updated 20:26 14/06/2013

British banks have been ordered to set aside more than £1bn over suspected rate manipulation in Singapore.

At least three UK-based global banks have been told to allocate the provision over the Singapore Interbank Offered Rate (Sibor).

The decision comes less than a year after the banking industry was rocked over rate manipulation in London-based Libor.

The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) ordered Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) to set aside £510m to £612m, while Barclays and Standard Chartered have been told to prepare a provision of between £200m to £300m each.

The money is being set aside to cover "deficiencies and risks" as part of the Singaporean review of activity between 2007 and 2011.

The money will be held at 0% interest rates for a year while the MAS considers how to improve controls on benchmark rates.

The MAS says 133 traders between these banks were found to have tried to influence these benchmarks.

The MAS says it will make rate-rigging a criminal offence.

Standard Chartered told Sky News: "We accept the findings of the MAS review."

In a statement, RBS added: "RBS has co-operated fully with MAS on its review of benchmark submissions and will comply with any required regulatory, capital and remedial measures."

Barclays declined to comment when approached by Sky News."""""

Posted

"""""

Co-op Bank To Fill £1.4bn Hole By 2015

Last Updated 01:58 17/06/2013

Mark Kleinman, City Editor

The Co-operative Group will be given until 2015 to complete a £1.4bn repair job on the balance sheet of its struggling bank under a deal to be announced on Monday.

Sky News has obtained key details of the mutual's agreement with the Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA), which follows weeks of crisis talks triggered by a six-notch downgrade by the credit ratings agency Moody's.

The plan will involve investors in existing Co-op Bank debt being asked to swap their holdings for a new equity instrument in the lender as well as new debt being taken on by the parent group.

That two-for-one proposal involving thousands of external investors will seek to fill roughly one-third of the £1.4bn capital hole. The remainder will come from the sale of the Co-op's general insurance business and portfolios of loans, and the parent group's participation in the debt and equity exchange.

The PRA has agreed that the Co-op can implement the measures through this year and next, although the bulk will take place through the exchange offer later this year.

Monday's announcement will not contain comprehensive details of all of the capital-raising measures, according to one insider.

"It is a roadmap designed to reassure customers, employees and debt investors that the bank has a secure future," the person said.

Under the deal, investors in the new parent group's debt would be repaid over a five-year period, although the exact repayment structure has yet to be finalised.

People close to the talks said the deal would be announced at 7am on Monday.

The banking regulator has been reassured by the installation of a heavyweight new management team at the Co-op's banking arm, led by Richard Pym, former boss of Alliance & Leicester, and Niall Booker, former head of HSBC's North American business.

The Co-op faces further embarrassment over the state of its banking arm this week when the chairman and chief executive of Lloyds Banking Group appear before the Treasury Select Committee to give evidence on the aborted deal to sell 632 of its branches to the mutual.

The Co-op and PRA both declined to comment.

"""""

Sky news app

Debt for equity - hmm yes I can see how that will fill investors with "confidence" , not

And contrary to the previous talk of how the parent group can just plug the whole with profits from the other business it now turns out they need to take on more debts themselves and sell completely the insurance side.

Tip ice berg ?

And how on earth management could of been so close to expanding to take over half of lloyds branches while not noticing the 1.4bl £ hole in the balance sheet !

Posted

Back to GBP/THB:

All the technical indicators this morning say it's a strong buy which suggests that THB is going to strengthen, it'll be interesting to see if that turns out to be good advice:

http://www.investing.com/currencies/gbp-thb-technical

The strength of that advice will be determined by the position you take.

If no take then the advice weak.

All my deals are done hence I have no position to take, but I still view direction with the same seriousness as though I were taking a position.

Posted

Back to GBP/THB:

All the technical indicators this morning say it's a strong buy which suggests that THB is going to strengthen, it'll be interesting to see if that turns out to be good advice:

http://www.investing.com/currencies/gbp-thb-technical

The strength of that advice will be determined by the position you take.

If no take then the advice weak.

All my deals are done hence I have no position to take, but I still view direction with the same seriousness as though I were taking a position.
If you have exposure to THB which you are going to hold that is a position, but if you don't then the advice doesn't hold.
Posted

Back to GBP/THB:

All the technical indicators this morning say it's a strong buy which suggests that THB is going to strengthen, it'll be interesting to see if that turns out to be good advice:

http://www.investing.com/currencies/gbp-thb-technical

The strength of that advice will be determined by the position you take.

If no take then the advice weak.

All my deals are done hence I have no position to take, but I still view direction with the same seriousness as though I were taking a position.
If you have exposure to THB which you are going to hold that is a position, but if you don't then the advice doesn't hold.

I currently hold equal ammounts of THB and GBP, exactly 50/50. I can't imagine the circumstances under which I would want to change those ratio's since that balance adequately addresses my needs in both locations/curencies, any loss in either currency is countered by a gain in the other thus I am full hedged.

Posted

First Libor, then Sibor , now Hibor

"The SFO said its investigation into the manipulation of Libor was continuing.

In a separate development amid the wider world probe into the alleged fixing of bank rates, authorities in Hong Kong confirmed that its investigation into possible benchmark rate manipulation had been extended to include HSBC and a number of other banks.

Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) announced in December that is was investigating UBS about possible misconduct relating to its submissions for the Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (Hibor).

Last week, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) claimed that traders from 20 banks, including HSBC, had tried to inappropriately influence benchmark rates in the Southeast Asia city-state.""""

-sky news app

Related law suites to follow, no?

How is the capital ratios of these banks doing these days? A few billion here , a few billion there. My pen lie?

£ printing again to prop them all up?

Posted

It's diificult to see the case for further QE at this time, inflation is up, all the Markit reports are all positive, US QE is comming to an end hence rates will have to rise and so on, it's not as clear cut on this aspect as it was say six months ago..

Posted

I currently hold equal ammounts of THB and GBP, exactly 50/50. I can't imagine the circumstances under which I would want to change those ratio's since that balance adequately addresses my needs in both locations/curencies, any loss in either currency is countered by a gain in the other thus I am full hedged.

If you think that the baht is definitively going to strengthen, eg going to 42.5 then you would change some sterling to baht now. If you are on 50%/50% with no intention to change, then your position indicates that in practice you don't anticipate much of a change at all whatever you might argue on this forum.
Posted

I currently hold equal ammounts of THB and GBP, exactly 50/50. I can't imagine the circumstances under which I would want to change those ratio's since that balance adequately addresses my needs in both locations/curencies, any loss in either currency is countered by a gain in the other thus I am full hedged.

If you think that the baht is definitively going to strengthen, eg going to 42.5 then you would change some sterling to baht now. If you are on 50%/50% with no intention to change, then your position indicates that in practice you don't anticipate much of a change at all whatever you might argue on this forum.

This is where we diverge in our opinions, it is not necessary to take an active position in order to hold a firm belief that XY or Z is likely to happen since investor timeline is key to the need to take that position, Also, you're speaking from the position of an investor who is trying to maximise their returns rather than from the position of someone who is simply preserving wealth. My current Baht holdings are adequate for the next nine years and my GBP is adequate for six years (the spend rate is different between locations), whilst I might decide at some point in the future to live full time in one location or the other and as a consequnece, convert all my holdings into a single currency, it would be foolish to try and imagine what the investment and currency exchange picture might look like six years hence..

Posted (edited)

I currently hold equal ammounts of THB and GBP, exactly 50/50. I can't imagine the circumstances under which I would want to change those ratio's since that balance adequately addresses my needs in both locations/curencies, any loss in either currency is countered by a gain in the other thus I am full hedged.

If you think that the baht is definitively going to strengthen, eg going to 42.5 then you would change some sterling to baht now. If you are on 50%/50% with no intention to change, then your position indicates that in practice you don't anticipate much of a change at all whatever you might argue on this forum.

This is where we diverge in our opinions, it is not necessary to take an active position in order to hold a firm belief that XY or Z is likely to happen since investor timeline is key to the need to take that position, Also, you're speaking from the position of an investor who is trying to maximise their returns rather than from the position of someone who is simply preserving wealth. My current Baht holdings are adequate for the next nine years and my GBP is adequate for six years (the spend rate is different between locations), whilst I might decide at some point in the future to live full time in one location or the other and as a consequnece, convert all my holdings into a single currency, it would be foolish to try and imagine what the investment and currency exchange picture might look like six years hence..

Yes we do diverge in our opinions. Agree you have plenty of folding money for living expenses. However on currency pairs acting or not acting on a position tells me what I need to know about the strength of that opinion and if someone says they are 'strongly of the opinion' that baht is going to trend up 5-10%%+ against sterling (not a short-term volatility) but then sits on their hands well......... Edited by yoshiwara
Posted

I currently hold equal ammounts of THB and GBP, exactly 50/50. I can't imagine the circumstances under which I would want to change those ratio's since that balance adequately addresses my needs in both locations/curencies, any loss in either currency is countered by a gain in the other thus I am full hedged.

If you think that the baht is definitively going to strengthen, eg going to 42.5 then you would change some sterling to baht now. If you are on 50%/50% with no intention to change, then your position indicates that in practice you don't anticipate much of a change at all whatever you might argue on this forum.

This is where we diverge in our opinions, it is not necessary to take an active position in order to hold a firm belief that XY or Z is likely to happen since investor timeline is key to the need to take that position, Also, you're speaking from the position of an investor who is trying to maximise their returns rather than from the position of someone who is simply preserving wealth. My current Baht holdings are adequate for the next nine years and my GBP is adequate for six years (the spend rate is different between locations), whilst I might decide at some point in the future to live full time in one location or the other and as a consequnece, convert all my holdings into a single currency, it would be foolish to try and imagine what the investment and currency exchange picture might look like six years hence..

Yes we do diverge in our opinions. Agree you have plenty of folding money for living expenses. However on currency pairs acting or not acting on a position tells me what I need to know about the strength of that opinion and if someone says they are 'strongly of the opinion' that baht is going to trend up 5-10%%+ against sterling (not a short-term volatility) but then sits on their hands well.........

Just because I know the sun is going to shine today doesn't mean I have to go and sunbathe.

Posted

Just because I know the sun is going to shine today doesn't mean I have to go and sunbathe.

“Truth is like the sun. You can shut it out for a time, but it ain't going away.”

― Elvis Presley

Posted

Just because I know the sun is going to shine today doesn't mean I have to go and sunbathe.

“Truth is like the sun. You can shut it out for a time, but it ain't going away.”

― Elvis Presley

He who knows when he can fight and when he cannot will be victorious - Sun Tzu

Posted

Just because I know the sun is going to shine today doesn't mean I have to go and sunbathe.

“Truth is like the sun. You can shut it out for a time, but it ain't going away.”

― Elvis Presley

He who knows when he can fight and when he cannot will be victorious - Sun Tzu
Opportunities multiply as they are seized.

Sun Tzu

Posted

Just because I know the sun is going to shine today doesn't mean I have to go and sunbathe.

“Truth is like the sun. You can shut it out for a time, but it ain't going away.”

― Elvis Presley

He who knows when he can fight and when he cannot will be victorious - Sun Tzu
....so in this case a position not strongly held (as I thought)
Posted

Just because I know the sun is going to shine today doesn't mean I have to go and sunbathe.

“Truth is like the sun. You can shut it out for a time, but it ain't going away.”

― Elvis Presley

He who knows when he can fight and when he cannot will be victorious - Sun Tzu
....so in this case a position not strongly held (as I thought)

Actually no, I just got tired of looking at the same quotes page that you were also using.biggrin.png

But, if you use the word "position" to mean a view or opinion then I tell you I have the courage of my convictions and am firm in my belief. But if you want me to back that belief up with a financial bet before you will be convinced of the strength of my belief I will tell you that it is not necessary to always back opinions with money, that is illogical.

But hey, how's about we agree to disagree on this point, it's all getting a bit airy fairy, don't you think.

Posted

Just because I know the sun is going to shine today doesn't mean I have to go and sunbathe.

“Truth is like the sun. You can shut it out for a time, but it ain't going away.”

― Elvis Presley

He who knows when he can fight and when he cannot will be victorious - Sun Tzu
Opportunities multiply as they are seized.

Sun Tzu

a German bratwurst without any soy content is preferable to any Thai sausage.

my dogs

Posted

Well we started our little wager as to the direction and destination of GBP/THB over a week ago when it was at 48.5 and here today we're broadly the same, albeit we've strengthened a little to 48. It seems to me from watching buiy/sell activity that BOT doesn't want to be much below 48 and of course today is the day when Ben sends his message around the world, will it go up or down as a result I wonder. I think the answer is pretty clear and that is that QE by the Fed is not going to dissappear overnight and the impact of that will be THB positive, as a result I am that 50 will be filed under the heading, fairy tales. giggle.gif

Posted

Well we started our little wager as to the direction and destination of GBP/THB over a week ago when it was at 48.5 and here today we're broadly the same, albeit we've strengthened a little to 48. It seems to me from watching buiy/sell activity that BOT doesn't want to be much below 48 and of course today is the day when Ben sends his message around the world, will it go up or down as a result I wonder. I think the answer is pretty clear and that is that QE by the Fed is not going to dissappear overnight and the impact of that will be THB positive, as a result I am that 50 will be filed under the heading, fairy tales. giggle.gif

Better to link the Fed comments with the USDTHB or HKDTHB rate.

Posted

Well we started our little wager as to the direction and destination of GBP/THB over a week ago when it was at 48.5 and here today we're broadly the same, albeit we've strengthened a little to 48. It seems to me from watching buiy/sell activity that BOT doesn't want to be much below 48 and of course today is the day when Ben sends his message around the world, will it go up or down as a result I wonder. I think the answer is pretty clear and that is that QE by the Fed is not going to dissappear overnight and the impact of that will be THB positive, as a result I am that 50 will be filed under the heading, fairy tales. giggle.gif

Better to link the Fed comments with the USDTHB or HKDTHB rate.

Go for it if you wish, the ultimate focus of our little wager here is GBP/THB.

Posted

Well we started our little wager as to the direction and destination of GBP/THB over a week ago when it was at 48.5 and here today we're broadly the same, albeit we've strengthened a little to 48. It seems to me from watching buiy/sell activity that BOT doesn't want to be much below 48 and of course today is the day when Ben sends his message around the world, will it go up or down as a result I wonder. I think the answer is pretty clear and that is that QE by the Fed is not going to dissappear overnight and the impact of that will be THB positive, as a result I am that 50 will be filed under the heading, fairy tales. giggle.gif

Better to link the Fed comments with the USDTHB or HKDTHB rate.

Go for it if you wish, the ultimate focus of our little wager here is GBP/THB.
I don't make predictions which appears to be as a rather irrelevant binary forecast. The trade would be how much do I change at 47/48 and how much should I hold back at the possibility of hitting 50? Since I mostly change HKD and we are almost at 4, buying baht in advance of current consumption needs will be an option for me at the beginning of July if the USD holds up. Sterling has other factors also pushing it around.
Posted

Well we started our little wager as to the direction and destination of GBP/THB over a week ago when it was at 48.5 and here today we're broadly the same, albeit we've strengthened a little to 48. It seems to me from watching buiy/sell activity that BOT doesn't want to be much below 48 and of course today is the day when Ben sends his message around the world, will it go up or down as a result I wonder. I think the answer is pretty clear and that is that QE by the Fed is not going to dissappear overnight and the impact of that will be THB positive, as a result I am that 50 will be filed under the heading, fairy tales. giggle.gif

Better to link the Fed comments with the USDTHB or HKDTHB rate.

Go for it if you wish, the ultimate focus of our little wager here is GBP/THB.
I don't make predictions which appears to be as a rather irrelevant binary forecast. The trade would be how much do I change at 47/48 and how much should I hold back at the possibility of hitting 50? Since I mostly change HKD and we are almost at 4, buying baht in advance of current consumption needs will be an option for me at the beginning of July if the USD holds up. Sterling has other factors also pushing it around.

This is exactly my conundrum right now - I have moved across a pile of cash in GBP - I might change a quarter of it now at 48 if I can (It's still a damn sight better than the 44 I was expecting before coming to Thailand)

Looking at the charts, there is definite support around the 48 level (GBP / THB) but longer term it looks highly probable that it will creep back up to 50.

Bear in mind, I have zero experience as a Forex trader so I could be talking complete BS.

Chok dee krap!

Posted (edited)

I don't make predictions which appears to be as a rather irrelevant binary forecast. The trade would be how much do I change at 47/48 and how much should I hold back at the possibility of hitting 50? Since I mostly change HKD and we are almost at 4, buying baht in advance of current consumption needs will be an option for me at the beginning of July if the USD holds up. Sterling has other factors also pushing it around.

This is exactly my conundrum right now - I have moved across a pile of cash in GBP - I might change a quarter of it now at 48 if I can (It's still a dam_n sight better than the 44 I was expecting before coming to Thailand)

Looking at the charts, there is definite support around the 48 level (GBP / THB) but longer term it looks highly probable that it will creep back up to 50.

Bear in mind, I have zero experience as a Forex trader so I could be talking complete BS.

Chok dee krap!

Let's say that the amount you have in sterling is 100,000. So the difference between 48 and 50 is ~4%. So potential loss if you change at 48 and it goes to 50 is 4000 pounds. However if you sit on the sterling you get ~ 0%, but you could get ~ 2% interest if you deposited the cash converted to baht. So that potential loss not 4% but around 2% (subject to time considerations)and that is without thinking about the risk of GBPTHB retreating. You said yourself that you had expected 44 before the current storm broke, so the question might be do you want to sleep a little more relaxed at night? Or do you want to 'play' in the FX world? Maybe it is a case of a bird in the hand and all that. Remember even if it goes above 50 this is not going to affect you. You are all in at 50 anyway.

Edited by yoshiwara
Posted

I don't make predictions which appears to be as a rather irrelevant binary forecast. The trade would be how much do I change at 47/48 and how much should I hold back at the possibility of hitting 50? Since I mostly change HKD and we are almost at 4, buying baht in advance of current consumption needs will be an option for me at the beginning of July if the USD holds up. Sterling has other factors also pushing it around.

This is exactly my conundrum right now - I have moved across a pile of cash in GBP - I might change a quarter of it now at 48 if I can (It's still a dam_n sight better than the 44 I was expecting before coming to Thailand)

Looking at the charts, there is definite support around the 48 level (GBP / THB) but longer term it looks highly probable that it will creep back up to 50.

Bear in mind, I have zero experience as a Forex trader so I could be talking complete BS.

Chok dee krap!

Let's say that the amount you have in sterling is 100,000. So the difference between 48 and 50 is ~4%. So potential loss if you change at 48 and it goes to 50 is 4000 pounds. However if you sit on the sterling you get ~ 0%, but you could get ~ 2% interest if you deposited the cash converted to baht. So that potential loss not 4% but around 2% (subject to time considerations)and that is without thinking about the risk of GBPTHB retreating. You said yourself that you had expected 44 before the current storm broke, so the question might be do you want to sleep a little more relaxed at night? Or do you want to 'play' in the FX world? Maybe it is a case of a bird in the hand and all that. Remember even if it goes above 50 this is not going to affect you. You are all in at 50 anyway.

Thanks, well, I might not go all-in at 50. I might do another quarter then and see if it continues up. Worst case if it was at 50, is that it drops back to 48 and maybe I go all in then.

As for the interest... which accounts pay 2%? I've always assumed bank interst payments to be a joke anyway in the UK, unless we are talking millions.

My Barclays current account paid 0.03% , something like that. (but of course happy to charge 20% on their credit cards)

Yes, some savings accounts once paid 5% (like ING) but pretty bad now. 1 or 2%? Besides, this money of mine will all be spent within a year, I'll be constantly transferring it out of savings into my current account (ATM) so I doubt it would ever have time to accrue the interest.

Anyway, I digress!

So, another quick question - as my money has now arrived and is sitting in the FDC as GBP, will I get the exchange rate of "cash" or "TT" when I change it into THB?

Thanks very much.

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