GBP to THB Exchange Rate

[Forkinhades]

Sterling's "cliff fall" versus Thai Baht started already in 2004.

There's nothing like a good graph to prove .... anything you want.

The THB was 48 to the GBP in 1973 also.

nice graph

[phutoie2]

Lot's of negativity over mother sterling, BNP Paribas spokesperson on this mornings Today programme quoted as saying GBP being deliberately under valued and will recover strongly later this year. About the same time as this radio piece two RTAF F16's flew over our house followed by two flying pigs.

[yoshiwara]

Mark Carney, incoming Bank of England Governor, was reported on Bloomberg yesterday as having implied at Davos that using the exchange rate was one of the (few remaining) tools for restoring some growth to the battered UK economy. The interpretation put on that was that he may well steer policy toward one that favours competitive devaluation of GBP or at least would not support significant BoE intervention to prop it up.

Head for the hills if this interpretation is correct (living is cheap among the Karen tribes I hear).

What price 45 baht before the end of the quarter? I reset my 'bring loads more money into baht' target strike price form 49 to 47.5 having heard that (and I'll drop further if I don't see that rate by mid Feb). Luckily I have got several million baht left that was bought at 50 during the three spikes to that rate over the last 2 years.

Non-speculative market observer. [if I were a punter I would be shorting GBP this AM]

If you have several million baht left then presumably you have sufficient baht funds for your own personal spending for several years, so there is no need for a reset for you as far as putting money into baht. If you do then it is more of a speculative currency trade which for a few percent why bother? On the other hand holding sterling in a cash deposit account might turn out to be quite expensive. Canadian Dollars?

I expect to put a fairly heavy slug of dosh into Thai equities at some point, Yoshi. Currently my Thai exposure is through UK-based investment trusts (Aberdeen New Thai and a range of other Asia-Pac ITs (that tend to have quite an exposure to Thailand these days). But you are right, as soon as I wrote that I don't speculate I thought to myself - yes you do - but it's on the fringes. Any kind of investment activity could I guess be described as speculation when it is money you have not earmarked to spend. Fair challenge :-)

I don't regard speculation as a pejorative term, but I sometimes forget that others do. My own cash is in GBP, HKD and SGD. For the last 3 months I have been exchanging GBP for baht for spending money only. I will now switch to HKD for converting to baht while sterling struggles. You have already got yourself covered re currency needs so I think the real question is whether you want to buy into individual Thai stocks because again you have the SET covered in your UK-based funds.

[nong38]

I usually go back to see how much worse things have got in May, June, July period, in the last visits I have managed to transfer funds at the rate of 49.5 and that was in 2011 and 2010, so I hope that that will continue.

I will not know until I see the rates when I want to transfer. As Naam says the graphs are the facts if all the correct information is input, but they are the facts of what happened whenever, they are not aguide to the future, the future is speculation and hope, I have 6 moths to be in the right place at the right time, what happens inbetween is of more interest to our day to day living costs.

Do the BOT know how to intervene in the market or do they just talk and do little? Do they want to do anything?

The money printing appears to be not over in the west and then will not help any funds that you have there, it depends on the individual what course of action is followed right now and as we are here the question should be how stable are the finances here and do those in charge know what they are doing.

I saw a bit today on tv about the car buying programme where folks are encouraged to buy cars with a good rebate from the government, they have to keep the car for 5 years. In 5 years there will be flood of cars on the market IMHO as the buyers try and make some money, the 2nd car market well change drastically.

[reflectionx]

If you have several million baht left then presumably you have sufficient baht funds for your own personal spending for several years, so there is no need for a reset for you as far as putting money into baht. If you do then it is more of a speculative currency trade which for a few percent why bother? On the other hand holding sterling in a cash deposit account might turn out to be quite expensive. Canadian Dollars?

As a Canadian, I've been following closely the loonie. In theory, it has great potential - the most sound banking system in the world, rich in oil and other resources, has approximately 7% of the world’s renewable fresh water, sound agriculture sector. During the recession, the unemployment rate remain stable, etc ...

However, its economy is seen as highly dependant on the US economy. There have been days with great news about the Canadian economy, but the loonie went substantially down against the US$. I've seen the opposite too. They are trying to change this dependency - signed trade agreements with Brazil, China and India, but it will take time to change this perception.

Also, the housing market is seen at risk as many people took advantage of the record low mortgage rates - 3%. However, when the rates will go up (not likely in the next 1-2 years though), there might be a wave of foreclosures.

[midas]

Will the pound fall below parity with the US dollar?

http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/currencies/will-the-pound-slump-against-the-dollar-62430

[SantiSuk]

Will the pound fall below parity with the US dollar?

http://www.moneyweek...he-dollar-62430

Typical journo carp on the internet. Float a catchy contentious headline and then show not one iota of evidence in support of it, let alone any intelligent journalism. I know there's some rubbish in the printed press, but these internet jocks really take the biscuit. Applies more widely than financial journalism - sports website journalism is also full of nonces that are simply click- salesmen.

[Naam]

Will the pound fall below parity with the US dollar?

http://www.moneyweek...he-dollar-62430

Typical journo carp on the internet. Float a catchy contentious headline and then show not one iota of evidence in support of it, let alone any intelligent journalism. I know there's some rubbish in the printed press, but these internet jocks really take the biscuit. Applies more widely than financial journalism - sports website journalism is also full of nonces that are simply click- salesmen.

agreed! but some resident experts will soon refer to that journàsslistic report or present the gist in this thread as "i think" or "i have it from the horse's mouth".

[IMA_FARANG]

I asked essentially the same question about the sudden change in the USD and Baht exchange rates a few days ago. The dollar/baht rate went from 30 point (high something) to 29 point ( low something) in only a week or less.

Same mix of educated guesses were given as the "true answer".

Best "true answer" in my opinion was that a mix of reasons is making Thailand and particularly the SET seeming to be a relatively better short term profitable investment than other options for funds being invested in Asia.

As one poster also mentioned in this topic, Thai bonds also are at a good rate compared to other local Asian alternatives.

Basically I guess, right now, investment in Thailand looks slightly better as a return than other alternatives ,,, and therefore investors want THB and the demand for THB is making it stronger against other currencies.

But, all it will take is one political crisis in Thailand and .... who knows what will happen.

[Forkinhades]

I asked essentially the same question about the sudden change in the USD and Baht exchange rates a few days ago. The dollar/baht rate went from 30 point (high something) to 29 point ( low something) in only a week or less.

Same mix of educated guesses were given as the "true answer".

Best "true answer" in my opinion was that a mix of reasons is making Thailand and particularly the SET seeming to be a relatively better short term profitable investment than other options for funds being invested in Asia.

As one poster also mentioned in this topic, Thai bonds also are at a good rate compared to other local Asian alternatives.

Basically I guess, right now, investment in Thailand looks slightly better as a return than other alternatives ,,, and therefore investors want THB and the demand for THB is making it stronger against other currencies.

But, all it will take is one political crisis in Thailand and .... who knows what will happen.

too early for another coup?

[Naam]

I asked essentially the same question about the sudden change in the USD and Baht exchange rates a few days ago. The dollar/baht rate went from 30 point (high something) to 29 point ( low something) in only a week or less.

Same mix of educated guesses were given as the "true answer".

Best "true answer" in my opinion was that a mix of reasons is making Thailand and particularly the SET seeming to be a relatively better short term profitable investment than other options for funds being invested in Asia.

As one poster also mentioned in this topic, Thai bonds also are at a good rate compared to other local Asian alternatives.

Basically I guess, right now, investment in Thailand looks slightly better as a return than other alternatives ,,, and therefore investors want THB and the demand for THB is making it stronger against other currencies.

But, all it will take is one political crisis in Thailand and .... who knows what will happen.

too early for another coup?

Thai Baht strengthened considerably vs. most currencies since the coup.

SET strenghtened too, lost of course during "Lehman 2008) but more than doubled since the coup.

[morrobay]

Thai Baht strengthened considerably vs. most currencies since the coup.SET strenghtened too, lost of course during "Lehman 2008) but more than doubled since the coup.

Cant you take the other side for a change ? Scenarios where the baht devalues due to : two trillion for infrastructure projects, they could print some baht for that.Household debt , the problems with the rice buying populist policy ...And isnt it only the very wealthy minority who benifit from a strong baht ?Of course the real problem is the debasement of the U.S. dollar for export advantage. Has a country ever debased its currency to prosperity ? This quantitative easing bs is great for the financial sector where they can speculate on assets in countries like Thailand At the expense of eveyrone else. In my book Bernanke and these other jerkoffs should be in prison for treason. Edited January 31, 2013 by morrobay

[exeter]

Will the pound fall below parity with the US dollar?

http://www.moneyweek...he-dollar-62430

Typical journo carp on the internet. Float a catchy contentious headline and then show not one iota of evidence in support of it, let alone any intelligent journalism. I know there's some rubbish in the printed press, but these internet jocks really take the biscuit. Applies more widely than financial journalism - sports website journalism is also full of nonces that are simply click- salesmen.

agreed! but some resident experts will soon refer to that journàsslistic report or present the gist in this thread as "i think" or "i have it from the horse's mouth".

The horses mouth might be mistaken for the Tesco meat counter though!

[Naam]

Thai Baht strengthened considerably vs. most currencies since the coup.SET strenghtened too, lost of course during "Lehman 2008) but more than doubled since the coup.

Cant you take the other side for a change ? Scenarios where the baht devalues due to : two trillion for infrastructure projects, they could print some baht for that.Household debt , the problems with the rice buying populist policy ...And isnt it only the very wealthy minority who benifit from a strong baht ?Of course the real problem is the debasement of the U.S. dollar for export advantage. Has a country ever debased its currency to prosperity ? This quantitative easing bs is great for the financial sector where they can speculate on assets in countries like Thailand At the expense of eveyrone else. In my book Bernanke and these other jerkoffs should be in prison for treason.

you have given already the answer (Bernanke / QE) why i have a problem to "take the other side".

-there's no need to print Baht for the projected "2trn for infrastructure" if that sort of (necessary) investment is spread over a reasonable period because it can be financed with debt and paid back with revenue as it takes anyway years to spend that kind of money. moreover, afore-said amount represents less than 20% of Thailands GDP per annum and it's a fair estimate that, if spread over a decade additional debt the 1.8% of GDP and the fact that Thailand's GDP shows a healthy growth is very much affordable.

-household debt does not affect the THB exchange rate and the same applies to "who benefits from a strong Baht".

-as far as the rice buying scheme is concerned i am lost because i've read too many contradicting statements and figures.

[Naam]

the thread were the real experts discuss the Baht exchange rates

http://www.thaivisa....-the-thai-baht/

Edited January 31, 2013 by Naam

[midas]

Will the pound fall below parity with the US dollar?

http://www.moneyweek...he-dollar-62430

Typical journo carp on the internet. Float a catchy contentious headline and then show not one iota of evidence in support of it, let alone any intelligent journalism. I know there's some rubbish in the printed press, but these internet jocks really take the biscuit. Applies more widely than financial journalism - sports website journalism is also full of nonces that are simply click- salesmen.

agreed! but some resident experts will soon refer to that journàsslistic report or present the gist in this thread as "i think" or "i have it from the horse's mouth".

The horses mouth might be mistaken for the Tesco meat counter though!

Or even the blue screen they recently caught Anderson Cooper in front of on CNN Instead of being on location. Or even the recent editing CNBC was recently caught out doing regarding the gun massacre hearing.

Bottom line is you can't really believe anyone

[Naam]

Or even the blue screen they recently caught Anderson Cooper in front of on CNN Instead of being on location. Or even the recent editing CNBC was recently caught out doing regarding the gun massacre hearing.

Bottom line is you can't really believe anyone

is your posting also available in English?

[midas]

Or even the blue screen they recently caught Anderson Cooper in front of on CNN Instead of being on location. Or even the recent editing CNBC was recently caught out doing regarding the gun massacre hearing.

Bottom line is you can't really believe anyone

is your posting also available in English?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rxAWy_bUuio

[midas]

Or even the blue screen they recently caught Anderson Cooper in front of on CNN Instead of being on location. Or even the recent editing CNBC was recently caught out doing regarding the gun massacre hearing.

Bottom line is you can't really believe anyone

is your posting also available in English?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rxAWy_bUuio

Bottom line is you can't really believe anyone

" On Monday’s edition of “Martin Bashir,” MSNBC ran footage of the testimony of Neil Heslin, the father of a Sandy Hook victim, in which it appears he is heckled by gun rights activists. MSNBC’s accompanying graphics box read “Mocked and Loaded. Sandy Hook Victim’s Father Heckled by Gun Rights Advocates.”

In reality, Heslin was not heckled. He posed a challenge to the audience, and the audience responded. The MSNBC version deliberately cut out Heslin’s challenge to make it appear as though he was interrupted by heckling gun advocates."

http://www.mrc.org/p...y-heckler-story

Edited January 31, 2013 by midas

[Naam]

in what way does Anderson Cooper or his nose affect the exchange rate of the Thai Baht vs Sterling?

[mccw]

Stronger bht "should" make imported products cheaper/ less expensive- ie helping not just "a very small elite" who have money to invest overseas but also the lower classes buying cheap imported Chinese products or transport costs or imported fertilisers, feeds etc leading through to more affordable prices for every one earning bht. This is why strong £ dollar people's lived do well for so long. Thailand is a the early stages of the debt road compared to west. If following the same model they could enjoy probably 20years of debt fuelled growth until running in to the wall like west has now. West looks set to devalue in to a lowly third world currency and try to export to the east. Genius.

[mccw]

I just heard from the farmers complaining the rice garrantee price is not getting paid to them, the labour has gone up so much to make the vegetable growing hardly profitable and the debt levels are soaring to buy fertiliser/ chemicals. Many are now selling land. Not sure how this will affect the bht but it doesn't sound good.

[mccw]

47.22

[reflectionx]

-as far as the rice buying scheme is concerned i am lost because i've read too many contradicting statements and figures.

On the rice:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-30/thailand-set-to-reclaim-top-rice-exporter-slot-as-sales-advance.html

“A sharp rise in baht in recent weeks has made buyers hesitant to place orders as the price in dollar terms has increased,” Korbsook said. “This is a key obstacle in addition to the state purchase program, which has raised costs.”

[Naam]

-as far as the rice buying scheme is concerned i am lost because i've read too many contradicting statements and figures.

On the rice:

http://www.bloomberg...es-advance.html

“A sharp rise in baht in recent weeks has made buyers hesitant to place orders as the price in dollar terms has increased,” Korbsook said. “This is a key obstacle in addition to the state purchase program, which has raised costs.”

i fail to see the impact on the Baht exchange rate.

[exeter]

Well at least some good news today and the rate seems to started to rise, the days of noodles might be numbered!

[fletchsmile]

My views and explanations already earlier in the thread. I see this as a continuing trend. What people should be thinking about and planning for just in case is where it would cause you further problems, or if things go further against you. These include:

- What would Bank of Thailand do if anything? Their policy is to smooth movements rather than set fixed targets, so don't expect any big defences or large scale currency purchases/sales, like in 1997 which then went pear shaped. Not much they can do either vs the major currencies given the relative sizes. They are more likely to benchmark vs regional (Asian) currencies and competitors so those are worth watching and consider holding as alternatives, eg SGD CNY (or CNH)

- Two ways to adjust money flows vis capital controls:

1) Make it easier to transfer money out of the country - not a problem to most expats and if anything welcomed

2) Make it more difficult to transfer money into the country, eg levying taxes and further exchange controls again on bringing money in. Remember a few years back when the THB and THO rates diverged by 10%? or What would you do if Thailand levies a withholding tax on any money brought in to the country.

Point is not always what direction it will go and whether some of these will happen or not or how likely. But what will you do if the rate continues to go against you and/or measures are taken to make your life more dificult. Better to have thought and planned ahead

- Imagine further what you'd do if Thailand got tough on taxes. e.g. actually taxing people's pensions or other income being brought into the country regardless of when earned. Many people just ignore the rules. Some play by them and ensure they don't bring income here in the year earned....The US is a nightmare on this whole area of worldwide income, imagine if Thailand starts moving in this same direction

Again building THB assets here makes sense for many people.

Of course if it goes in your favour, then no worries, but don't leave yourself open to the whims of governments and FX markets

Fletch

Edited February 1, 2013 by fletchsmile

[yoshiwara]

Stronger bht "should" make imported products cheaper/ less expensive- ie helping not just "a very small elite" who have money to invest overseas but also the lower classes buying cheap imported Chinese products or transport costs or imported fertilisers, feeds etc leading through to more affordable prices for every one earning bht. This is why strong £ dollar people's lived do well for so long. Thailand is a the early stages of the debt road compared to west. If following the same model they could enjoy probably 20years of debt fuelled growth until running in to the wall like west has now. West looks set to devalue in to a lowly third world currency and try to export to the east. Genius.

Would that be the socialist road to capitalism or the capitalist road to socialism?

[yoshiwara]

Again building THB assets here makes sense for many people.

Of course if it goes in your favour, then no worries, but don't leave yourself open to the whims of governments and FX markets

Fletch

Not everybody is in the position to do so ie build up Thai assets and are primarily reliant on an overseas cash income stream.

[meatboy]

Stronger bht "should" make imported products cheaper/ less expensive- ie helping not just "a very small elite" who have money to invest overseas but also the lower classes buying cheap imported Chinese products or transport costs or imported fertilisers, feeds etc leading through to more affordable prices for every one earning bht. This is why strong £ dollar people's lived do well for so long. Thailand is a the early stages of the debt road compared to west. If following the same model they could enjoy probably 20years of debt fuelled growth until running in to the wall like west has now. West looks set to devalue in to a lowly third world currency and try to export to the east. Genius.

yippee hp.sauce,spam,branston pickle,lamb and not forgetting my cider all down in price,as much chance as getting a tuk tuk ride for a fair price in phuket.