GBP to THB Exchange Rate

[onewhowalkswithbuffalo]

Thailand has one of the biggest house hold debts in Asia, Thailand has from what I can see a serious housing bubble. Thailand's currency is being proped up by foreign money invested only due to higher return on investment rates than the west, Thailand's world reputation is becoming more and more tarnished see "Don't THAI to me" article in Bangkok post today, Thailands political situation is pitiful at best, Thailand has an endenmic problem with corruption which in recent years has seen the corrupt pockets deepen in expected gratuity.

The UK has a proper economy which is rising from the trough and will climb fast in 2014.

Expect to see 55baht to the pound by new year, this will remain the same give or take a few baht until next September when we will see another spike. Pound to hit 65 by 2015.

[Naam]

Thailand has one of the biggest house hold debts in Asia, Thailand has from what I can see a serious housing bubble. Thailand's currency is being proped up by foreign money invested only due to higher return on investment rates than the west, Thailand's world reputation is becoming more and more tarnished see "Don't THAI to me" article in Bangkok post today, Thailands political situation is pitiful at best, Thailand has an endenmic problem with corruption which in recent years has seen the corrupt pockets deepen in expected gratuity.

The UK has a proper economy which is rising from the trough and will climb fast in 2014.

Expect to see 55baht to the pound by new year, this will remain the same give or take a few baht until next September when we will see another spike. Pound to hit 65 by 2015.

75 by 2020 and 100 by 2033 (mid/end january)

[chiang mai]

Thailand has one of the biggest house hold debts in Asia, Thailand has from what I can see a serious housing bubble. Thailand's currency is being proped up by foreign money invested only due to higher return on investment rates than the west, Thailand's world reputation is becoming more and more tarnished see "Don't THAI to me" article in Bangkok post today, Thailands political situation is pitiful at best, Thailand has an endenmic problem with corruption which in recent years has seen the corrupt pockets deepen in expected gratuity.

The UK has a proper economy which is rising from the trough and will climb fast in 2014.

Expect to see 55baht to the pound by new year, this will remain the same give or take a few baht until next September when we will see another spike. Pound to hit 65 by 2015.

A good post, welcome!

Agreed on the household debt but I'm very unclear about the housing bubble here (as indeed I am in some other countries also), however we're still able to buy decent property here on good sized lots fairly inexpensively, something we can't do back in the UK!

The US Fed's QE boost in 2007 was exactly that, a boost, the degree to which the Thai currency is being "propped up" by this today is likely to surprise many to the upside - withdrawal of QE though remains a concern I agree although it's an unknown entity in terms of impact and timing.

Thai PR and corruption: I agree, the country sometimes doesn't do itself any favours, sadly, but it's been this way since time began so nothing new here.

The UK economy: the deficit and the debt are what they are and the consumer is being squeezed, the economy isn't being rebalanced in any sensible or meaningful way, inflating an already overinflated housing market and placing a massive debt burden on the younger generation is not the answer, unfortunately there doesn't seem to be an alternative but that doesn't mean it's going to fly past the short/medium term either!

A question for you: the UK deficit will be reported today as having been beaten down by circa £160 mill. to £8.1 bill, how do you think the "proper economy" in the UK is going to bridge that gap?

EDIT: for the avoidance of doubt for those people reading this and trying to understand the different arguments, that's £8.1 billion per month.

Edited November 21, 2013 by chiang mai

[Huayrat]

Thailand is in a far worse state than the UK now.. The Amenesty bill will be brought back in 6 months and people here will go crazy if it is.. As the days go on a military coup is looking more and more likely.. They are ignoring the rule of law laid down by the top Judges so its inevitable where this is going.. The GBP will remain strong for along time against the baht that's for sure.. Certain people on here are still knocking the pound as to when it was 43 baht to the pound.. Funny they are still here saying its in bad shape and are blind to the events that are happening in Thailand right now.. Asking as Thaskin is in power then this country is in big trouble.. Once Myanmar becomes open then Thailand will sink fast as everybody will jump ship..

[Ticker2000]

QE on its way out, Asia stalling, Thailand economy stalling, political instability here, western economies rebounding, safer and better investments elsewhere - no brainer really.

I do still not believe that most of the removal of US QE has been priced in - some for sure but not all. The market know is going to happen and it will near term so will over the nest 3-6 months continue to adjust

Its been my line of argument for a while. Let hope I am correct for my sakes!!!

Let me correct your post, for the sake of accuracy and because I think it is a brainer:

US Fed's QE may be on the way out, when that will happen remains as unclear as ever.

Thailand's economy is slowing but GDP still remains about 3% above that of most Western countries.

Political instability, an everyday feature of Thailand rears it's head again, it's unlikely this will have an impact on the currency although it may well cause a temporary drop in GDP.

Safer investment opportunities exist elsewhere although not in many places where the returns can easily be free of tax. Europe may have opportunities although since rates there are likely to turn negative it may well be that at least some of the money that would ordinarily have been invested there will now be looking perhaps East for a new investment home.

Only time will tell the degree to which the removal of QE has been priced in, other countries in the region appear far more exposed than Thailand in this respect hence it is not a foregone conclusion that the Thai economy will suffer as a result.

There, I think that's a more accurate and unbiased reflection of where we are.

Opening line should have read - "Let me reiterate your post in verbose and patronising prose...."

But appreciate your explanation. It cleared a few things up for me...

[Ticker2000]

Thailand has one of the biggest house hold debts in Asia, Thailand has from what I can see a serious housing bubble. Thailand's currency is being proped up by foreign money invested only due to higher return on investment rates than the west, Thailand's world reputation is becoming more and more tarnished see "Don't THAI to me" article in Bangkok post today, Thailands political situation is pitiful at best, Thailand has an endenmic problem with corruption which in recent years has seen the corrupt pockets deepen in expected gratuity.

The UK has a proper economy which is rising from the trough and will climb fast in 2014.

Expect to see 55baht to the pound by new year, this will remain the same give or take a few baht until next September when we will see another spike. Pound to hit 65 by 2015.

To 55 yes and maybe spike to 60 when US QE kicks in. 65 I would love but doubt it despite my previous thoughts. Might but there is a lot of new money in all its forms flushing through the system.

The "might" relates to the swelling credit issue in Thailand (that you alluded to) and the fact that the ill informed mass here are being sold credit in fashion not dissimilar to the west pre 2008. If indeed there is a bubble on this front and it bursts in conjunction with the phasing out of QE then potentially you could be right with the 60 - 65. I hope you are.

[Ticker2000]

There are no support or resistance levels on GBP/THB so why do you think breaching 51 is technically important?

You need to return to school. Lol never read anything so ill informed

[Ticker2000]

GBP ended fairly strong again at close. And this being above 51. Would anticipate another shift up tomorrow as I predicted today - no promises - but with the idiotic language coming out of PTP today it is a fairly good bet. The world markets will not be impressed.... particularly with the back drop of QE, Thai economy waining, western economies moving in the right direction, credit bubble here etc etc...

Edited November 21, 2013 by Ticker2000

[mccw]

""""In the Budget the Chancellor forecast that he would earn £7.7bn in property-related stamp duty this year. He looks likely to beat this estimate by more than a billion pounds.

However, news that stamp duty revenues have exceeded the pre-crisis peak will also cause further concerns among economists, who have warned that the property market is becoming inflated in much the way it did before the crash.

They warn that, far from rebalancing, Britain's economy is becoming reliant, once again, on debt and the housing market.

The Chancellor has also enjoyed an extra fillip from new measures aimed at preventing property investors avoid stamp duty by “wrapping” their investment properties up in a company.

The punitive fees levied on these investors generated £78m for the Exchequer in September and October alone.

According to the Office for National Statistics, the overall government deficit dropped from £8.2bn in October 2012 to £8.1bn this October.""""

From sky news app.

Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[Ticker2000]

A pounding for sterling in 2013?

The year has begun with mutterings about the pound - with some suggesting that it is about to fall off a cliff.

http://www.bbc.co.uk...siness-21059213

I thought it fell off the cliff in 2008.

Sterling's "cliff fall" versus Thai Baht started already in 2004.

Well the opposite seems to have happen - This was posted in Jan 2013

[chiang mai]

There are no support or resistance levels on GBP/THB so why do you think breaching 51 is technically important?

You need to return to school. Lol never read anything so ill informed

OK so inform me, show us that you're not just full of bluster with no substance! Here's the thing, THB is a managed peg currency against USD where the value of THB is measured against USD in the first instance, THB is also a semi closed currency in that it is not widely available outside of Thailand, currency controls by BOT restrict the export of THB, clear so far?

So whilst GBP/USD and USD/THB are actively traded and have support and resistance levels, GBP/THB is a bi-product of GBP/USD and indeed if you check their trading profiles, they are almost exactly the same.

So, let me ask you again, what technical breach of GBP/THB occurred at 51 and what are the other resistance support levels at this time? If you tell me that you were actually referring to a GBP/USD I will understand!

[chiang mai]

QE on its way out, Asia stalling, Thailand economy stalling, political instability here, western economies rebounding, safer and better investments elsewhere - no brainer really.

I do still not believe that most of the removal of US QE has been priced in - some for sure but not all. The market know is going to happen and it will near term so will over the nest 3-6 months continue to adjust

Its been my line of argument for a while. Let hope I am correct for my sakes!!!

Let me correct your post, for the sake of accuracy and because I think it is a brainer:

US Fed's QE may be on the way out, when that will happen remains as unclear as ever.

Thailand's economy is slowing but GDP still remains about 3% above that of most Western countries.

Political instability, an everyday feature of Thailand rears it's head again, it's unlikely this will have an impact on the currency although it may well cause a temporary drop in GDP.

Safer investment opportunities exist elsewhere although not in many places where the returns can easily be free of tax. Europe may have opportunities although since rates there are likely to turn negative it may well be that at least some of the money that would ordinarily have been invested there will now be looking perhaps East for a new investment home.

Only time will tell the degree to which the removal of QE has been priced in, other countries in the region appear far more exposed than Thailand in this respect hence it is not a foregone conclusion that the Thai economy will suffer as a result.

There, I think that's a more accurate and unbiased reflection of where we are.

Opening line should have read - "Let me reiterate your post in verbose and patronising prose...."

But appreciate your explanation. It cleared a few things up for me...

Well let me clear something else up for you, I think you're full of air and not much else, an expat wannabe most likely! You're too ready to critic the poster and the style but you're real light on content and meaningful challenges to data, fact and views!

[Naam]

A pounding for sterling in 2013?

The year has begun with mutterings about the pound - with some suggesting that it is about to fall off a cliff.

http://www.bbc.co.uk...siness-21059213

I thought it fell off the cliff in 2008.

Sterling's "cliff fall" versus Thai Baht started already in 2004.

Well the opposite seems to have happen - This was posted in Jan 2013

the present GBPTHB of 51 does not change the fact that the "cliff fall" started in 2004.

[Ticker2000]

For Naam - Post 1844

Dont disagree and was not disagreeing with you post - just the 2013 headline

GBP off to a flying start yet again.

[Huayrat]

Up up and away woohoo

[Naam]

For Naam - Post 1844

Dont disagree and was not disagreeing with you post - just the 2013 headline

GBP off to a flying start yet again.

understood

[mccw]

My latest research for hedging income, through overseas property, as previously discussed, is looking at Aukland, NZ. 8-10% net pa available on city apartments; tax brackets starting at 10.5% with costs deductible, no capital gains tax, no inheritance tax, full foreign ownership.

Any experience; opinions?

Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[mccw]

NZ debt to GDP under 40%

Thailand under 40%

Britain approaching 100 rapidly.

What happens to economies with over 100% according to other recent examples? Stagnation like Japan, or collapse like the med, how are the probabilities? Stagflation

Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[Naam]

Sir John Major: US and UK Will Lead Global Growth

http://www.thefinancialist.com/sir-john-major-u-s-and-uk-will-lead-global-growth/

[Naam]

NZ debt to GDP under 40%

Thailand under 40%

Britain approaching 100 rapidly.

What happens to economies with over 100% according to other recent examples? Stagnation like Japan, or collapse like the med, how are the probabilities? Stagflation

Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

debt/gdp = irrelevant!

what counts is revenue/debt service.

Thailand under 40%

Britain approaching 100 rapidly.

that must be the reason why GBP is strengthening and THB is weakening

[Jip99]

Thailand under 40%

Britain approaching 100 rapidly.

Does that include village loans, black market loans, rice loans, syndicate loans, pawn shop loans - or would they be outside the official numbers.

[mccw]

NZ debt to GDP under 40%

Thailand under 40%

Britain approaching 100 rapidly.

What happens to economies with over 100% according to other recent examples? Stagnation like Japan, or collapse like the med, how are the probabilities? Stagflation

Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

debt/gdp = irrelevant!

 

what counts is revenue/debt service.

 

 

Thailand under 40%

Britain approaching 100 rapidly.

 

 

that must be the reason why GBP is strengthening and THB is weakening 

 

Faith of market participants - the only reason Japan, US and UK didn't go the way of Greece or Argentina already.

I read that since QE, if we separate the circlular gov printed/ owner debt (costing nothing), from the foriegn / private held debt (ie that which actually costs the gov money) then the real debt to GDP of UK is actually now back around 40% , neet trick that, obviously they don't display that in the total, but if that's true then really UK stands just fine in my view and can afford to stimulate as needed going forward. The rhetoric of cuts is more politics to change the rotten dysfunctional welfare/ benifits system, over regulation on SMEs and the rest of it.

Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[mccw]

Thailand under 40%

Britain approaching 100 rapidly.

 

 

Does that include village loans, black market loans, rice loans, syndicate loans, pawn shop loans  -  or would they be outside the official numbers.

Would you include all mortgage, personal loans, credit cards, payday lenders etc etc- if u did for UK I think you'd find it far far higher

Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[mccw]

Also naam is say debt service is what matters- so yes, on such a huge debt wich needs servicing the interest rates need to be super low and the way to maintain them so low is for printing/ market manipulation, which is what QE is doing, money printing, increased supply of money / printing leads to depreciating currency. The question is, have they done enough? With out the intervention how affordable / serviceable will it be?

Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[Jip99]

Thailand under 40%

Britain approaching 100 rapidly.

Does that include village loans, black market loans, rice loans, syndicate loans, pawn shop loans - or would they be outside the official numbers.

Would you include all mortgage, personal loans, credit cards, payday lenders etc etc- if u did for UK I think you'd find it far far higher

Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

Yes. In the UK ALL those things you mentioned are regulated and appear in official borrowing figures.

So - do you think my list is included in Thailand's official figures ?

[mccw]

 

 

Thailand under 40%

Britain approaching 100 rapidly.

 

 

Does that include village loans, black market loans, rice loans, syndicate loans, pawn shop loans  -  or would they be outside the official numbers.

 

Would you include all mortgage, personal loans, credit cards, payday lenders etc etc- if u did for UK I think you'd find it far far higher

Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

 

 

Yes. In the UK ALL those things you mentioned are regulated and appear in official borrowing figures.

 

So - do you think my list is included in Thailand's official figures ?

 

Eer sorry but your completely wrong. UK debt to GDP figures are for government borrowing- not all total public and private debt! (This is true of Thailand and every other country when generally talking about debt to GDP its meaning government debt to GDP)

Take a look at this:

http://www.independent.co.uk/money/loans-credit/1430000000000-britains-personal-debt-timebomb-8950372.html

Public sector debt here (see the methodological differences at the bottom):

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/psa/public-sector-finances/july-2013/sty-public-sector-debt.html

Your very naive if you think the west doesn't engage in accounting tricks.

See this compiled from the governments own figures:

http://www.iea.org.uk/blog/true-level-of-uk-government-debt-exceeds-£5-trillion

Almost 400% and that's just the public sector; what do you think it would be if including the private sector?

Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[MichaelJackson]

Amazing! You guys, its like written in English but a different language somehow, seldom do I read a paragraph of text and I am left thinking, nothing was said at the end of it.

Totally mystified and admire your apparent knowledge of the subject and interest in it. To me its a string of words that have little meaning, just too complicated. But on the upside I can read numbers and the current rate of 51+ looks great, havnt seen that for some time, hope it continues as some have suggested.

Just cant seem to get to grips with the technicalities, leave that to you, its way over my head and comprehension, I'll stick with simple numbers, know my capabilities and all that.

[Huayrat]

Amazing! You guys, its like written in English but a different language somehow, seldom do I read a paragraph of text and I am left thinking, nothing was said at the end of it.

Totally mystified and admire your apparent knowledge of the subject and interest in it. To me its a string of words that have little meaning, just too complicated. But on the upside I can read numbers and the current rate of 51+ looks great, havnt seen that for some time, hope it continues as some have suggested.

Just cant seem to get to grips with the technicalities, leave that to you, its way over my head and comprehension, I'll stick with simple numbers, know my capabilities and all that.

Simply do as I do.. Ignore them all as day on day they post figures and the pound still goes up and up..

[Ticker2000]

Amazing! You guys, its like written in English but a different language somehow, seldom do I read a paragraph of text and I am left thinking, nothing was said at the end of it.

Totally mystified and admire your apparent knowledge of the subject and interest in it. To me its a string of words that have little meaning, just too complicated. But on the upside I can read numbers and the current rate of 51+ looks great, havnt seen that for some time, hope it continues as some have suggested.

Just cant seem to get to grips with the technicalities, leave that to you, its way over my head and comprehension, I'll stick with simple numbers, know my capabilities and all that.

Open a conversation with the boards resident non wannabe expat (CM) with a very hurt ego at the moment (yet again). He could do with a friend such as you whose knowledge of the technicalities is on par with his!!!!!

Being offered 51.4 with broker in UK - glad I held off transferring.

[chiang mai]

Amazing! You guys, its like written in English but a different language somehow, seldom do I read a paragraph of text and I am left thinking, nothing was said at the end of it.

Totally mystified and admire your apparent knowledge of the subject and interest in it. To me its a string of words that have little meaning, just too complicated. But on the upside I can read numbers and the current rate of 51+ looks great, havnt seen that for some time, hope it continues as some have suggested.

Just cant seem to get to grips with the technicalities, leave that to you, its way over my head and comprehension, I'll stick with simple numbers, know my capabilities and all that.

Open a conversation with the boards resident non wannabe expat (CM) with a very hurt ego at the moment (yet again). He could do with a friend such as you whose knowledge of the technicalities is on par with his!!!!!

Being offered 51.4 with broker in UK - glad I held off transferring.

I see you've ducked the technical questions, yet again, just a stream of meaningless noise now, at least you've learned something useful about the composition of GBP/THB, I would imagine and will start to follow USD more closely so it's not been a complete waste of time!

EDIT: BTW it's clear that you're really not interested in the GBP/THB background debate but like many others your main focus is on abuse and posturing hence you've just graduated to my "ignore" list, byee!

Edited November 22, 2013 by chiang mai