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Posted

Little tit bit from the reuters article I just posted in regards to the application of TA in evaluating currency movements..

The Thai currency may depreciate to 32.460, its September
low, with little intervening support, if it clears the 76.4
percent Fibonacci retracement at 32.087 of its September
appreciation, they added.

Posted

There was no reason for the baht to pair losses during the day given the back drop - so there you have it the bank stepped in.

However still ended up pretty much where it started at the start of play which is weaker than while the CB was intervening.

They will obviously have to step in again tomorrow.... That is unless the opposing parties kiss and make up in Bangkok tomorrow which I doubt will happen

Posted

Cheers ticker;

And good to hear some reasoned views with accompanying links.

How is your out look on across a wider time scales?

Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

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Posted

I'm afraid I can't find any such good rates as the ones ticker keeps quoting. Guess he's got some special links, skills and/or experience.

My big transfers GBP to THB are done for the time being. Any advice for getting the best rates when sending back the other way?

Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

Posted (edited)

I'm afraid I can't find any such good rates as the ones ticker keeps quoting. Guess he's got some special links, skills and/or experience.

My big transfers GBP to THB are done for the time being. Any advice for getting the best rates when sending back the other way?

Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

Sorry to hear that.

Re latter point - keep your transfer slips to thailand and make sure they were listed as investment from the outset (sure you are aware of this - make it easier to return more than you sent)- make a friend with a branch manager here who will hopefully like you and call bkk on your behalf and hope for the best. If you have large amounts then call a major Thai bank HQ directly - they all have in house currency dealing departments - just down to whether it is enough for them to be interested. I have not asked to use or used but the better brokers back home have funds placed all over the globe - its how they make their money.

Good luck and hope to hear how you get on - out of Thailand is always more tricky than inbound

Edited by Ticker2000
Posted

Cheers ticker;

And good to hear some reasoned views with accompanying links.

How is your out look on across a wider time scales?

Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

If government is supporting - no idea today. Will watch and think. Me still feeling greedy...

Posted

There's a piece in the Business Section of a national newspaper who may not be named here that discusses the impact of the current situation, it's entitled Baht spirals past 32...

The gist of the article is that the political uncertainty combined with the threat to begin tapering QE have combined at the start of the tourist season, the worst possible time in economic terms, the effect is that overseas investors are withdrawing bond funds to the tune of 40 bill. last month. Markets continue to perceive tapering as a risk although increasingly less so, the balance is tipped negatively by events in Bangkok and the perceived threat to earnings from high season.

Another layer on the above is the delay caused to the THB 2 trill. spending program as MMB points out, this means the stimulus is delayed hence a delay in any boost to future GDP.

The effect of all of that is that THB continues to weaken. Looking at the BOT Foreign Reserves numbers (which are delayed by two weeks) up to 15th November, reserves stood at USD 169.8 bill. vs USD 172.9 bill on 18 October. Once again, I don't know enough about the mechanics of the reserves system to usefully comment further.

Which ever way you look at it, the developments in Bangkok are not helping the economy, no doubt people in government will have noticed this also and things will settle down before too long (we hope).

Posted

There's a piece in the Business Section of a national newspaper who may not be named here that discusses the impact of the current situation, it's entitled Baht spirals past 32...

The gist of the article is that the political uncertainty combined with the threat to begin tapering QE have combined at the start of the tourist season, the worst possible time in economic terms, the effect is that overseas investors are withdrawing bond funds to the tune of 40 bill. last month. Markets continue to perceive tapering as a risk although increasingly less so, the balance is tipped negatively by events in Bangkok and the perceived threat to earnings from high season.

Another layer on the above is the delay caused to the THB 2 trill. spending program as MMB points out, this means the stimulus is delayed hence a delay in any boost to future GDP.

The effect of all of that is that THB continues to weaken. Looking at the BOT Foreign Reserves numbers (which are delayed by two weeks) up to 15th November, reserves stood at USD 169.8 bill. vs USD 172.9 bill on 18 October. Once again, I don't know enough about the mechanics of the reserves system to usefully comment further.

Which ever way you look at it, the developments in Bangkok are not helping the economy, no doubt people in government will have noticed this also and things will settle down before too long (we hope).

This is fairly much what I have been saying for the last month. The perfect storm.....

Posted

There's a piece in the Business Section of a national newspaper who may not be named here that discusses the impact of the current situation, it's entitled Baht spirals past 32...

The gist of the article is that the political uncertainty combined with the threat to begin tapering QE have combined at the start of the tourist season, the worst possible time in economic terms, the effect is that overseas investors are withdrawing bond funds to the tune of 40 bill. last month. Markets continue to perceive tapering as a risk although increasingly less so, the balance is tipped negatively by events in Bangkok and the perceived threat to earnings from high season.

Another layer on the above is the delay caused to the THB 2 trill. spending program as MMB points out, this means the stimulus is delayed hence a delay in any boost to future GDP.

The effect of all of that is that THB continues to weaken. Looking at the BOT Foreign Reserves numbers (which are delayed by two weeks) up to 15th November, reserves stood at USD 169.8 bill. vs USD 172.9 bill on 18 October. Once again, I don't know enough about the mechanics of the reserves system to usefully comment further.

Which ever way you look at it, the developments in Bangkok are not helping the economy, no doubt people in government will have noticed this also and things will settle down before too long (we hope).

This is fairly much what I have been saying for the last month. The perfect storm.....

People who get paid in the pound hope it continues for along time so we hope it continues..nearly 52 woohooo

Posted

BTW yesterday mornings see saw rates look like profit taking although intervention is a possibility, business papers reporting it as the former.

Posted

BTW yesterday mornings see saw rates look like profit taking although intervention is a possibility, business papers reporting it as the former.

I posted this earlier for you in particular as I thought it might be of interest to you.

You are right and the government has started to intervene according to the markets. It was not profit taking yesterday.

http://in.reuters.co...N0JB0IS20131126

Posted

And for their sake I do too, but let's deal in reality shall we - average GBP/THB TT rate at start of business is 51.59.

http://bankexchangerates.daytodaydata.net/default.aspx

The best rate on free access www to use the 50 sterling rate at Superrich as it is always the best rate and will hence be more reflective of the money market rates. It is more reflective as they are not going to buy your 50's at higher than the wholesale rates as they would be making a ........???

The buying price is 51.8 and mid spread is 51.9 for 50's as I write.

http://www.superrich1965.com/?gclid=CJWCmYOd6LoCFSUF4godrG0ARw

Posted

And for their sake I do too, but let's deal in reality shall we - average GBP/THB TT rate at start of business is 51.59.

http://bankexchangerates.daytodaydata.net/default.aspx

The best rate on free access www to use the 50 sterling rate at Superrich as it is always the best rate and will hence be more reflective of the money market rates. It is more reflective as they are not going to buy your 50's at higher than the wholesale rates as they would be making a ........???

The buying price is 51.8 and mid spread is 51.9 for 50's as I write.

http://www.superrich1965.com/?gclid=CJWCmYOd6LoCFSUF4godrG0ARw

Q: how relevant is Superrich for the overwhelming majority of foreigners concerning its exchange rate?

A: as relevant as the uterus of a nun who has vowed eternal celibacy.

source: www.naams-bullsh*t.org

Posted

And for their sake I do too, but let's deal in reality shall we - average GBP/THB TT rate at start of business is 51.59.

http://bankexchangerates.daytodaydata.net/default.aspx

The best rate on free access www to use the 50 sterling rate at Superrich as it is always the best rate and will hence be more reflective of the money market rates. It is more reflective as they are not going to buy your 50's at higher than the wholesale rates as they would be making a ........???

The buying price is 51.8 and mid spread is 51.9 for 50's as I write.

http://www.superrich1965.com/?gclid=CJWCmYOd6LoCFSUF4godrG0ARw

Q: how relevant is Superrich for the overwhelming majority of foreigners concerning its exchange rate?

A: as relevant as the uterus of a nun who has vowed eternal celibacy.

source: www.naams-bullsh*t.org

Many on here spend hours debating which is the most accurate source of for the actual wholesale market rate - this is the most accurate that Joe Bloggs is able to access.

Posted

For the purpose of this thread we said much earlier that we'd use SCB Thailand's exchange rate as our reference point, subsequently we seem to have moved to the average rate of all Thai banks as shown on the bankexchangerates site.

The reason we've done this is because most resident expats will do a bank to bank transfer hence the rate needs to reflect the rate offered by Thai banks. Many tourists will of course be able to use the services of Superich but I suspect it's only a small percentage of the overall total since most do not care to transport large sums of cash and to walk around the streets of Bangkok carrying the Baht they've converted - the issue of the wholesale funds rate is I believe an unnecessary distraction in this thread.

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Posted

For the purpose of this thread we said much earlier that we'd use SCB Thailand's exchange rate as our reference point, subsequently we seem to have moved to the average rate of all Thai banks as shown on the bankexchangerates site.

The reason we've done this is because most resident expats will do a bank to bank transfer hence the rate needs to reflect the rate offered by Thai banks. Many tourists will of course be able to use the services of Superich but I suspect it's only a small percentage of the overall total since most do not care to transport large sums of cash and to walk around the streets of Bangkok carrying the Baht they've converted - the issue of the wholesale funds rate is I believe an unnecessary distraction in this thread.

1. I am not saying you have to use this a the forums standard. I am just saying it is the most reflective rate of the wholesale market rate available on the net for public access. Do you agree or not?

2. To use the published rate of SCB is is misleading as it is possible to achieve better rates through a broker in the UK who buys your baht for you and sends the amount in Thai baht as I do. I achieve a rate around that of Superich.

I thought the idea of this thread was all things around the GBP/THB. I am trying to explain to all how to get more for the GBP accessible by all.

Is developing peoples knowledge that horrifying.........

Posted

Were you aware that you can negotiate your rate in SCB in HQ by phone as well.

Hence achieving a better rate than the published rate by SCB. Would have to be a reasonable amount.

Still not as good through private brokers that have stocks of THB.

Does anyone here want to get more their pound??????????

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Posted

Were you aware that you can negotiate your rate in SCB in HQ by phone as well.

Hence achieving a better rate than the published rate by SCB. Would have to be a reasonable amount.

Still not as good through private brokers that have stocks of THB.

Does anyone here want to get more their pound??????????

that is correct. i always manage to get a few Satang more after a bit of negotiating when they call me. but then i make only two transfers per year to cover my expenses in Thailand. only the purchase of a car (which doesn't happen very often) requires a third transfer.

look at the various threads (their zillion replies and godzillion hits) concerning ATM fees and you'll find that average Joe Farang and his friends Bill and Buck do not negotiate with any bank headquarter and neither do they travel from Nakhon Nowhere a few hundred miles to the next Superrich to exchange their foreign currency into Thai Baht.

p.s. those mentioned above will also not contact private brokers to change their weekly £250.

Posted

Were you aware that you can negotiate your rate in SCB in HQ by phone as well.

Hence achieving a better rate than the published rate by SCB. Would have to be a reasonable amount.

Still not as good through private brokers that have stocks of THB.

Does anyone here want to get more their pound??????????

that is correct. i always manage to get a few Satang more after a bit of negotiating when they call me. but then i make only two transfers per year to cover my expenses in Thailand. only the purchase of a car (which doesn't happen very often) requires a third transfer.

look at the various threads (their zillion replies and godzillion hits) concerning ATM fees and you'll find that average Joe Farang and his friends Bill and Buck do not negotiate with any bank headquarter and neither do they travel from Nakhon Nowhere a few hundred miles to the next Superrich to exchange their foreign currency into Thai Baht.

p.s. those mentioned above will also not contact private brokers to change their weekly £250.

So what you are saying is that I should not post information of relevance to some (interesting to more) because it is not relevant for all..... hmmmm

More flawed logic.

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Posted

Typically, from experience, Thai banks Treasury Depts will not contact the customer and notify the rate (and offer a chance for negotiation) for amounts under USD20k equivalent. It is however possible to be proactive and ask in advance, in practice this is usually only successful where large amounts are involved.

  • Like 1
Posted

Were you aware that you can negotiate your rate in SCB in HQ by phone as well.

Hence achieving a better rate than the published rate by SCB. Would have to be a reasonable amount.

Still not as good through private brokers that have stocks of THB.

Does anyone here want to get more their pound??????????

that is correct. i always manage to get a few Satang more after a bit of negotiating when they call me. but then i make only two transfers per year to cover my expenses in Thailand. only the purchase of a car (which doesn't happen very often) requires a third transfer.

look at the various threads (their zillion replies and godzillion hits) concerning ATM fees and you'll find that average Joe Farang and his friends Bill and Buck do not negotiate with any bank headquarter and neither do they travel from Nakhon Nowhere a few hundred miles to the next Superrich to exchange their foreign currency into Thai Baht.

p.s. those mentioned above will also not contact private brokers to change their weekly £250.

So what you are saying is that I should not post information of relevance to some (interesting to more) because it is not relevant for all..... hmmmm

More flawed logic.

i fail to see any "information of relevance" and presented logical reasons.

but whatever... it should not stop you to post whatever you think is relevant even if it's the price of yesterday's som tam of your nearest vendor expressed in Scottish Pence. not relevant for all but perhaps for some.

Posted (edited)

Were you aware that you can negotiate your rate in SCB in HQ by phone as well.

Hence achieving a better rate than the published rate by SCB. Would have to be a reasonable amount.

Still not as good through private brokers that have stocks of THB.

Does anyone here want to get more their pound??????????

that is correct. i always manage to get a few Satang more after a bit of negotiating when they call me. but then i make only two transfers per year to cover my expenses in Thailand. only the purchase of a car (which doesn't happen very often) requires a third transfer.

look at the various threads (their zillion replies and godzillion hits) concerning ATM fees and you'll find that average Joe Farang and his friends Bill and Buck do not negotiate with any bank headquarter and neither do they travel from Nakhon Nowhere a few hundred miles to the next Superrich to exchange their foreign currency into Thai Baht.

p.s. those mentioned above will also not contact private brokers to change their weekly £250.

So what you are saying is that I should not post information of relevance to some (interesting to more) because it is not relevant for all..... hmmmm

More flawed logic.

i fail to see any "information of relevance" and presented logical reasons.

but whatever... it should not stop you to post whatever you think is relevant even if it's the price of yesterday's som tam of your nearest vendor expressed in Scottish Pence. not relevant for all but perhaps for some.

Good try but smacks of bit of..... and has whiff of....

Edited by Ticker2000
Posted (edited)

You can't buy GBP or THB from XE, and even if you could they wouldn't charge the mid rate! 51.65 average TT bank rate currently.

BTW I took you off ignore because it looked like you were starting to debate sensibly, T2000 took your place!

Edited by chiang mai
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