Are Older Men in Thailand Trading Love for Financial Ruin

[Bpuumike]

the dollar is a safe haven currency. the buck goes down when money goes into risk assets like stocks. when the stock market tanks the buck goes up. look at the financial crisis when stocks crashed and the buck went to 36 vs the baht. it's really quite simple.

Stay with the USD if you like but check how many have been printed since 'the financial crash' and with nothing to back them.

[mccw]

the dollar is a safe haven currency. the buck goes down when money goes into risk assets like stocks. when the stock market tanks the buck goes up. look at the financial crisis when stocks crashed and the buck went to 36 vs the baht. it's really quite simple.

Yeah; it will keep working like that... Until it doesn't

[Naam]

the dollar is a safe haven currency. the buck goes down when money goes into risk assets like stocks. when the stock market tanks the buck goes up. look at the financial crisis when stocks crashed and the buck went to 36 vs the baht. it's really quite simple.

Stay with the USD if you like but check how many have been printed since 'the financial crash' and with nothing to back them.

the USD has one big advantage, id est no other currency offers the same variety of asset classes and risks demanded by a diversified global investor.

[Bpuumike]

the dollar is a safe haven currency. the buck goes down when money goes into risk assets like stocks. when the stock market tanks the buck goes up. look at the financial crisis when stocks crashed and the buck went to 36 vs the baht. it's really quite simple.

Stay with the USD if you like but check how many have been printed since 'the financial crash' and with nothing to back them.

the USD has one big advantage, id est no other currency offers the same variety of asset classes and risks demanded by a diversified global investor.

Agree with the risks but surely a diversified global investor is by definition also diversified outside the USD?

[Naam]

the dollar is a safe haven currency. the buck goes down when money goes into risk assets like stocks. when the stock market tanks the buck goes up. look at the financial crisis when stocks crashed and the buck went to 36 vs the baht. it's really quite simple.

Stay with the USD if you like but check how many have been printed since 'the financial crash' and with nothing to back them.

the USD has one big advantage, id est no other currency offers the same variety of asset classes and risks demanded by a diversified global investor.

Agree with the risks but surely a diversified global investor is by definition also diversified outside the USD?

that goes without saying.

[BEENTHEREDONETHAT]

Unemployment depends a lot on how the numbers are compiled. Wages going up a little while the cost of life's essentials rises a lot = real disposable incomes falling. But I agree a couple points of GDP is not the be all and end all BUT the perseptions and sentiment from that word "recession" can have much wider consequences than the actual points first under review did themselves. Q1 results will be interesting indeed.

If its avoided from the Q1 posting marginal gains I predict it coming with in 13 or early 14 ie the contraction sparking to the final unravelling / next crises on a larger scale than 07/08 because no policy tools left for delay; when it comes it will be the Big One.

More crystal balls.

big ones?

My thoughts exactly. Western politicians don't have the cojones to confront their electorates with the truth (don't claim Merkel can't have them when Maggie Thatcher was always admired for hers). Their only objectives seem to get re-elected

And to makes heaps of money from the lobbyist.

[kblaze]

Sorry OP you are wrong to say the baht isn't soaring.

Record capital inflows are being seen. If they weren't being seen and the baht was still appreciating then yes, you could say the baht is simply strengthening due to weakness of safe haven currencies (usd gbp jpy).

However the baht is strengthening against safe havens AND risk-on currencies (aud, cad, sgd, etc) while the dollar index hasnt fallen out of its channel. The thai baht however has jumped out of the channels it was trading in.

Look at the chart below, the one outlier that I have been able to find against the baht is the EURO, and that currency is f****up that Im not going to try to explain why ( i dont know ). The rest of the currency pairs THBUSD THBAUD THBCAD

are all being beat up by the baht.

Money is flowing into Thailand, there is hard data to back this up. When money flows into Thailand it means people must be trading their home currencies for baht. Thus, the baht strengthens.

[manarak]

Sorry OP you are wrong to say the baht isn't soaring.

Record capital inflows are being seen. If they weren't being seen and the baht was still appreciating then yes, you could say the baht is simply strengthening due to weakness of safe haven currencies (usd gbp jpy).

However the baht is strengthening against safe havens AND risk-on currencies (aud, cad, sgd, etc) while the dollar index hasnt fallen out of its channel. The thai baht however has jumped out of the channels it was trading in.

Look at the chart below, the one outlier that I have been able to find against the baht is the EURO, and that currency is f****up that Im not going to try to explain why ( i dont know ). The rest of the currency pairs THBUSD THBAUD THBCAD

are all being beat up by the baht.

Money is flowing into Thailand, there is hard data to back this up. When money flows into Thailand it means people must be trading their home currencies for baht. Thus, the baht strengthens.

Errr, you mean I'm wrong because you demonstrated that the THB is strong against USD-correlated currencies?

Look at the following pairs: THBCNY, THBEUR, THBCHF, THBRUB and speaking of safe havens, especially THBNOK, THBSEK.

Nothing happens in Norway and Sweden, why would their currency lose ground to the THB?

Oh wait... it doesn't.

Edited February 5, 2013 by manarak

[kblaze]

You don't believe that domestic economic factors have anything to do with the bahts appreciation?

CHF, NOK, and SEK all lost ground to the THB when it exploded the first half of January this year - the same time when almost everything else was losing to the baht (see the chart), how do you explain that? Sure the baht retraced in the latter half of January, but its now starting to climb again.

I don't know what you are talking about regarding THBCNY...the baht has been dominating all along..look below.

the top two are the Thai baht vs China renminbi and Thai baht vs indian rupee

bottom two are thbchf and thbnok (thbsek and thb nok are virtually the same)

[rsokolowski]

The US Federal Reserve is printing money out of thin air to the tune of 85,000,000,000 (85 billion) USD every single month and will continue this "quantitative easing" for as long as required the get the US economy going again. I would expect the USD to tank. Eventually the USD will likely not be worth the paper it is printed on, but then again it is probably already there.

[Naam]

The US Federal Reserve is printing money out of thin air to the tune of 85,000,000,000 (85 billion) USD every single month and will continue this "quantitative easing" for as long as required the get the US economy going again. I would expect the USD to tank. Eventually the USD will likely not be worth the paper it is printed on, but then again it is probably already there.

why don't you find out how much the USD is worth genius? go to a bank or money changer, buy some and report back.

[Bpuumike]

The US Federal Reserve is printing money out of thin air to the tune of 85,000,000,000 (85 billion) USD every single month and will continue this "quantitative easing" for as long as required the get the US economy going again. I would expect the USD to tank. Eventually the USD will likely not be worth the paper it is printed on, but then again it is probably already there.

If you don't have a bum-gun then it will eventually be a cheaper alternative - just you wait and see.

[manarak]

You don't believe that domestic economic factors have anything to do with the bahts appreciation?

CHF, NOK, and SEK all lost ground to the THB when it exploded the first half of January this year - the same time when almost everything else was losing to the baht (see the chart), how do you explain that? Sure the baht retraced in the latter half of January, but its now starting to climb again.

I don't know what you are talking about regarding THBCNY...the baht has been dominating all along..look below.

the top two are the Thai baht vs China renminbi and Thai baht vs indian rupee

bottom two are thbchf and thbnok (thbsek and thb nok are virtually the same)

I like to look at currencies using 3 year charts.

I wouldn't call an appreciation of 2 or 3% an "explosion", otherwise there would only be explosions all around the market.

My point is that the THB is in the middle ground of what happened in the last 2-3 years against the currencies I mentioned:

THBCNY: Min: 0.1982 Max: 0.2190 Now: 0.21

THBCHF: Min: 0.0259 Max: 0.0357 Now: 0.0307

THBEUR: Min:0.0224 Max: 0.0262 Now: 0.0248

THBRUB: Min: 0.9027 Max: 1.0652 Now: 1.0087

THBNOK: Min: 0.1757 Max: 0.2073 Now: 0.1845

=> it is very clear that the Thai Baht didn't reach extraordinary levels against any of the above currencies, rather the THB is currently in the middle of the field it traded in within the past 2-3 years in these currencies.

But the Baht reaches 5 year highs against GBP, USD, JPY...

[manarak]

Second thoughts about the current situation:

The US, GB and Japan are clearly printing money - not with the goal to get their economies going, but I suspect them to do it to lower their currency's exchange rate to boost their exports and to lower the cost of their debt.

And the Eurozone doesn't do it - yet.

This could be a problem for Germany.

The question is about when the EU will follow by printing money as well.

And Dragon currencies like the Baht will be forced to follow.

Will this initiate a new rush on gold?

That would be my best guess.

[Bpuumike]

Second thoughts about the current situation:

The US, GB and Japan are clearly printing money - not with the goal to get their economies going, but I suspect them to do it to lower their currency's exchange rate to boost their exports and to lower the cost of their debt.

And the Eurozone doesn't do it - yet.

This could be a problem for Germany.

The question is about when the EU will follow by printing money as well.

And Dragon currencies like the Baht will be forced to follow.

Will this initiate a new rush on gold?

That would be my best guess.

The EU already is.

In an earlier post I expressed the hope that Ms. Y/T will not follow the same route.

In any case, buy yourself some gold, and right now is a good time.

[yoshiwara]

Second thoughts about the current situation:

The US, GB and Japan are clearly printing money - not with the goal to get their economies going, but I suspect them to do it to lower their currency's exchange rate to boost their exports and to lower the cost of their debt.

Will this initiate a new rush on gold?

That would be my best guess.

Which hasn't been a very good one recently.

[manarak]

Second thoughts about the current situation:

The US, GB and Japan are clearly printing money - not with the goal to get their economies going, but I suspect them to do it to lower their currency's exchange rate to boost their exports and to lower the cost of their debt.

Will this initiate a new rush on gold?

That would be my best guess.

Which hasn't been a very good one recently.

there has been no gold rush recently

[manarak]

still sitting quietly on my CHF, waiting on developments...