Alert, Alert To All My Esarn Mates

[ShingDam]

Hello everybody

maybe i am wrong, but if you have a bigger abount in thai baht on your thai bankaccount you should watch the situation carefully and decide what to do.

The interest jumped the last days unusuall fast upwards and the banks dont want to serve with cash and credits.

I watched the int. market and till now there is not a significant movement but they just opened.

The markets need usually a bit time but they are never wrong.

If so and the hidden inflation is much more high (what i guess for sure) there is a suprise waiting for us.

You should be prepared to transfer your money "home", change in gold, buy traveller cheques or even land cows and so on.

Sorry if i make you worry but i thought it might be good to be warned

ShingDam

[LaoPo]

The interest jumped the last days unusuall fast upwards and the banks dont want to serve with cash and credits.

Any indication in % ?

LaoPo

[ShingDam]

The interest rate moved from 12% last wednesday to 16% today.

A banker was afraid to speak in public with me, but we have a date tomorrow.

I know this because my father in law wants to take a credit for update his cow bussiness and they agreed with 300.000 Baht one week ago.

Now they only want to give him 100.000 and that not sure.

All folks got crazy at the bank - so my wife - so this doesnt only comes over my dad in law

[Phil Conners]

Don't get the point.

Why would you want to take your money out of the bank just because interest rates may go up?

[LaoPo]

The interest rate moved from 12% last wednesday to 16% today.

A banker was afraid to speak in public with me, but we have a date tomorrow.

I know this because my father in law wants to take a credit for update his cow bussiness and they agreed with 300.000 Baht one week ago.

Now they only want to give him 100.000 and that not sure.

All folks got crazy at the bank - so my wife - so this doesnt only comes over my dad in law

Hmmmm....that's extreme, yes.

It could mean a few things and I'm not sure where it comes from.

Maybe some big bank-shots in BKK know more than the rest (in the country) and there could be going on something nationally (the unrest about the PM), not necessarily internationally...

You have to keep in mind that local bankers get their instructions on a daily basis (that's worldwide) from the Mother-Bank and can't act themselves anymore....in other words: their hands are tied.

Best advise for your dad-in-law: stay put and don't buy any cows for the moment.

Money + interest is too expensive!....let the others buy (at too high prices....) and the price will drop significantly, very soon

Just my 2 Satang.

LaoPo

[Guest endure]

http://www.bangkokpost.net/breaking_news/b...ws.php?id=83451

[ShingDam]

Hmmmm,

dont look only at one side of the interest dear friend.

Raising interests mean raising risk for the money value and this means if you have bigger amounts in bath that you could loose a lot of money if the situation becomes unstable.

Euro, dollar, pound go up and your bahts are less worth.

You might be unable to buy things in thailand at the same price than today. I think about people who transfer big amounts in order to built a house or so, like i worried 2 years ago - they might be unable to finshed the house with that amount, or the architekt broke or something else.

Sorry if i too pessimistic but its only a warning.

shingdam

PS I told my father hold on an wait with your bussiness, if the credit is cheap take it and buy your cows as fast as possible. (Cheap because we dont know how they will handle it because my dad started the contract 8 weeks ago).

Further the banker told me, in private (drunk already, gave him some lao for loosen his thounge, that there are many many AND maaany of copies of bad landpapers ?!?!?!)

[LaoPo]

http://www.bangkokpost.net/breaking_news/b...ws.php?id=83451

Thanks for the info!

Excerpt from your link:

******************************************************************************

Bank of Ayudhya, one of the leading commercial banks, said that it had increased its 12-month fixed deposit rate and also increased its lending rates by 0.25% effective from tomorrow.

“The increase this time is on both sides, deposits and lending, by 0.25% and follows the lead of Kasikornbank,” Mr. Tak Bunnag, executive vice president of BAY said.

BAY said that its interest rate for 12-month deposit would be 3.25 to 4.25%, while its 24-month deposit rate would stand at 4% and 36-month rates at 4.25%.

In regards to the lending rate, BAY said that its Minimum Lending Rate (MLR) would rise to 7.25%, while Minimum Overdraft Rate (MOR) and its Minimum Retail Rate (MRR) would rise to 7.75%.

*****************************************************************************

Hmmm...that doesn't really explain the extreme rise on interest-rates from the OP...does it? (from 12 to 16% in a few days...)

LaoPo

Edited March 6, 2006 by LaoPo

[ShingDam]

this isnt a fake I insure you, my rates was us told today at the kasikornbank on our place, thats why i got droven crazy

[Guest endure]

The bank obviously thinks that the loan is high risk.

[ShingDam]

I stay close to that Kasikornbank where we had an article about the manager which robbed a lot of money, maybe its because of that ....

Now i am confused.

At all watch out

[LaoPo]

this isnt a fake I insure you, my rates was us told today at the kasikornbank on our place, thats why i got droven crazy

Sorry if you misunderstood me. I believe you!

It's just odd...very odd indeed.

I hardly believe the sharp rise of the interest rates is just because of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting scheduled for later this week.

I (and that's just my opninion) believe it has more to do with the heavy unrest in the country right now and the banks are afraid - VERY AFRAID - of what's coming next and want to be on the safe side....can't blame them for that.

AND: 'Endure's comment: The bank obviously thinks that the loan is high risk. could also be true (to a certain point) and again: the local banks have to follow the instructions from the Mother-Bank.

You and your dad in law are wise to stay put for now.

LaoPo

Edited March 6, 2006 by LaoPo

[ShingDam]

Yes and the rating of my dad in law was A++ in the process.

At least him doesnt made a decission already (didnt signed the paper).

I only had the intention to warn some of yours maybe I got nuts a bit, but i really worry.

With or without Mr. T (PM) it looks stormy .

Best regards

shingdam

sorry i have to go out, my inetpacket is out.

stay outside via mobilephone and laptop

[LaoPo]

I stay close to that Kasikornbank where we had an article about the manager which robbed a lot of money , maybe its because of that ....

Now i am confused.

At all watch out

Are you sure this 'manager' is not family-of-family of the neighbours of your Dad in Law?

sorry for the joke

LaoPo

[ShingDam]

He he he,

yes i am sure, i am not involved in any way (financial i meant), it his bussiness i only worry about my savings in baht, thats all. And the story with my dad in law and the other angry people in front of the bank here ....

At least, if i look at that clear, i stay with my warning.

If i dont response again i kicked out ok

shing dam

[Kf6vci]

Well, don't overreact nad rush to the market to convert your THB into lean hogs or whatever :-) 1.) Has the Thai Central Bank raised its rates? There is a difference between the rates one gets as a borrower to the ones one gets as someone keeping money in a savings account or bond. When bond prices fall, the yield goes up. / Regarding that loan, it seems far more likely that the borrower is considered a shaky customer. Some sort of money crunch would have reverberrated throughout the financial markets. ** THB 100,000 is such a small amount that it would be futile to get excited about any currency fluctuation - but the Baht is certainly not particularly weak these days.

[LaoPo]

Regarding that loan, it seems far more likely that the borrower is considered a shaky customer.

Hmmm...it doesn't fit with the quote of the OP about his Dad in Law:

""the rating of my dad in law was A++ in the process.""

Therefore it must be another reason, also because many more customers (with this particular bank) are worried...

But, what reason(s)?

LaoPo

[gburns57au]

Usually political unrest would cause that nations currency to take a bit of a dive....I have wondered why the Baht has held so strong against other currencies in light of the recent events....

It seems to me that the baht is being propped up somewhere.....Could this be an indication that the baht is in for one hel_l of a dive....

[Gary A]

All I now for sure is that I wish I had a lot of baht right now. I have to make a wire transfer from the US soon and the exchange rate is 38.76 to a dollar. My last transfer was 40.5 and the one before that was 41.6.

I think as soon as the dust settles regarding Toxin's funds the rate will improve to around 40. Before Toxin made the deal the government panicked when the rate got down to about 40. It seems things have changed.

[sezzo]

All I now for sure is that I wish I had a lot of baht right now. I have to make a wire transfer from the US soon and the exchange rate is 38.76 to a dollar. My last transfer was 40.5 and the one before that was 41.6.

I think as soon as the dust settles regarding Toxin's funds the rate will improve to around 40. Before Toxin made the deal the government panicked when the rate got down to about 40. It seems things have changed.

I hope you are right. My monthly Oz dollar transfers have dived in value over the past couple of months.

Have to cut back to only 6 changs per day now.

Very sad indeed

[phibunmike]

If the lending base rate is, say 7.5%, that doesn't mean you can borrow at that rate - as Endure says, the manager wiill assess the risk, look at his overall portfolio, and offer base + x % - in the OP's example somthing like base + 5% changing to base + 8%. Doesn't necessarily imply base rate has gone up.

If base rate does go up, the currency becomes more attractive to all and either the baht gets stronger, or they use it to try to stop a weakening baht (two sides of the same coin).

That's how I understand it anwyay

[ShingDam]

Hello i am back,

i agree with gburns57au and phibunmike, it confuses me that the baht is so strong and that the int. markets dont react to the unstable situation ?

I know further from that bank that over a time period of 1 month they wont give any credit to anybody and wait the outcome of the political situation ?!

Please understand the credit story about my dad in law is only a hint which makes me confused, it isnt soooo important at all.

shing dam

[ShingDam]

... would like to add a statement of a professional analyst about the financial market situation :

"We expect that after the PMs stepdown the baht could be in a free fall. I

f that doesnt happen we expect that the currency will tend further to be strong maybe raise a bit in value. "

Like everything nobody knows for sure, na ?!

Only i guess if Mr. Toxin will step down its likely to his character to let the country back in the worst situation it could be, only for the rembering how good it was with him.

But besides i dont believe there is a future without T. and then it might be dangerous time for the brave folks today.

..... it reminds me about (not so) good old germany a time ago. Dont forget we had democratic elections then, after him raised to absolute power.

[ShingDam]

A short watch at the Thai stockmarket tell us today ..... it starts !

[jts-khorat]

I guess there will be some time of insecurity until the elections are over; especially in places like Isan, expect a lot of weird things to go on. Just something that will (hopefully) blow over...

[Guest endure]

... would like to add a statement of a professional analyst about the financial market situation :

"We expect that after the PMs stepdown the baht could be in a free fall. I

f that doesnt happen we expect that the currency will tend further to be strong maybe raise a bit in value. "

Blimey, that's called having your forecasting cake and eating it. 'It might get weaker but if it doesn't it might get stronger'

[ShingDam]

Thats why the profis are never wrong, I mostly listen or read trash like that what drives me crazy

[boppia]

Living in Bangkok, I have seen prices rising for a few years. But in the past six months the changes are really starting to show. Just today I jumped on a non air bus and was surprised to see a higher priced ticket. . It was five baht a few years ago. Today the new tickets are stamped 8 baht. I took the bus only about a kilometer to a place where I could get a taxi. Eigth baht is not a lot of money for me but for some of the poor people that little bit will take away a lot of money especially if they have to jump on and off buses to go here and there throughout the day. Lots of things seem expensive nowadays. I wrote in a different thread, Lotus seems to have hiked a lot of its prices as well. Wine prices seem to be outrageous compared to a year a ago. I think a lot of increases are working their way into the prices of everyday products. As prices increase and people feel the pinch. Workers will want more and small businesses will have to increase their prices. The price of gas in Thailand is up or going up to.

[ShingDam]

Thats exactly what i realize and sorry i have no statistic but the inflation how i feel is much more higher than the inflation of the public statistics. I easily cant believe it.

I built my house 2 years ago and still have contact to my architekt. Him told me the same house would cost me 3 times more today.

I know this is only a sectoral inflation but whats about oil, wages and the example boppia just brought in.

Thats why i am so full of worries

shingdam

[dereklev]

Thats exactly what i realize and sorry i have no statistic but the inflation how i feel is much more higher than the inflation of the public statistics. I easily cant believe it.

I built my house 2 years ago and still have contact to my architekt. Him told me the same house would cost me 3 times more today.

I know this is only a sectoral inflation but whats about oil, wages and the example boppia just brought in.

Thats why i am so full of worries

shingdam

I checked the exchange rate (Thai Baht / UK Pound) when this thread started and it was 67.76.

I have checked it again and it is now 67.89. (Exchange rate source XE.com)

So no massive movements there.......

As for the cost of building a house trebling in 2 years.........well IMHO that is the biggest load of bullsh*t I have heard for many a year! !