Do You Think Thailand Could Go The Same Way As Cyprus

[MrWorldwide]

Cyprus's problems were caused by the Euro Zone. They were doing well until the Greek debt slate was wiped clean.Cyprus had bought a lot of that debt.

Wrong. Cyprus caused its own problems by putting all its eggs in one basket. They put the whole country at risk by investing in one dodgy country (Greece). A country that everyone knew was dodgy. But they didn't care. What did they expect to happen? People have been warning about this for years before the current crisis. No excuse for their bad decision.

FWIW Cyprus was the last Net Contributor to join the EU. The Euro was an idea based on idealism instead of finance.

IMO, it was Germany's attempt to exert financial control over countries it had no political control over - and now the Germans are reaping the reward for that short-sightedness. Its well documented that countries like Greece lied through their teeth in their submission to join the Euro zone, but Germany was desperate to get as many aboard as possible.

[Naam]

Cyprus's problems were caused by the Euro Zone. They were doing well until the Greek debt slate was wiped clean.Cyprus had bought a lot of that debt.

Wrong. Cyprus caused its own problems by putting all its eggs in one basket. They put the whole country at risk by investing in one dodgy country (Greece). A country that everyone knew was dodgy. But they didn't care. What did they expect to happen? People have been warning about this for years before the current crisis. No excuse for their bad decision.

FWIW Cyprus was the last Net Contributor to join the EU. The Euro was an idea based on idealism instead of finance.

IMO, it was Germany's attempt to exert financial control over countries it had no political control over - and now the Germans are reaping the reward for that short-sightedness. Its well documented that countries like Greece lied through their teeth in their submission to join the Euro zone, but Germany was desperate to get as many aboard as possible.

ze Tchermanns never learn zeir lessons. vhy don't zey realise zat zey receive alvays a bloody nose and luhs vhen zey vant to konker ozzer kountries?

[Naam]

Cyprus is living from money laundering for Russian mafia and only in a smaller part they are getting money from tourists while Thailand is earning money from agriculture, tourists, and production. In Cyprus locals do not work even in hotels. They use Philippians to clean after the tourists.

Cypriots are basically Greek and the banks invested almost exclusively in Greek debt that is the reason their banks have failed and put the island in a big hole everything else has been a contributory factor, including the money laundering.

[MrWorldwide]

Laugh if you must naam, but my analysis happens to be shared by folk with a lot of letters after their names, and not all of those designations amount to 'SOB'

[bonzersmom]

Anyone who thinks that any government cannot do whatever it wants with people's bank accounts is living in a dream world.

[cmsally]

This is going to be interesting because it has to be connected to Russian influence in the Mediterranean and arms supply to Syria. I believe Gazprom is already offering to bail out the Cypriots. Cyprus could offer them another naval base in Med. (I think they already have one in Syria).

The EU has already bailed out quite a few already, why not the Cypriots. Is this an open offer to the Russians or simply an admission of had enough, so make the investors pay. Surely the EU can't be so stupid as to think the Cypriots will accept it. Don't the Russians end up on top whatever the ball game?

[davejones]

Europe and the UK will go down the road of Cyprus long before Thailand would

If you mean taxing people's savings, I doubt the UK would ever take that option. They would rather print money. The UK can print money, but Cyprus can't. That is a huge difference. Same with Thailand - they can also print money.

Having said that, I still have more faith in financial institutions in UK than Thailand. If I had £1 million in cash, I'd sleep better knowing it was in UK rather than Thailand. I think Thailand is fairly stable, but you never know when things will kick off. Thailand has a small possibility of falling apart. I doubt the UK would.

If you had 1 million quid you would be a very silly person to keep it all in one financial institution in one country anyway...eggs in one basket etc etc whether Thailand or the UK, but would morons in the British goverment try and pull a stunt like cyprus...of course they would if they thought they could get away with it

It was a hypothetical example. Of course I wouldn't keep £1 million in cash in one institution. I was just using it as an example to show that I though the UK was safer than Thailand. Yes, the UK government would do it if they thought they could get away with it. But the reality is that they couldn't. If any major country in Europe tried this, they would literally be thrown out. Governments want to be re-elected and stay in power. There are plenty of other ways for them to steal from their citizens, so they wouldn't be so stupid as to be so blatant. It just wouldn't happen in the UK. I am confident of that, though others may not be. So just my opinion. If I turn out to be wrong, then that's just life.

[davejones]

Sorry but the poll is stupid! The situation in Cyprus and in Thailand is as different as chalk and cheese. Thailand did not lend Billions to Greece, they have not lost Billions in poor banking loans. Thai banking sector is the envy of many nations caught up in the Euro dept problem. Thailand has an inflow of funds hence the strength of the Baht. If Thailand implodes and I cannot see any reason why it would then it certainly will not be because od the problems being experienced by Cyprus!

It imploded in the past (late 90s), so could certainly implode again. Thailand has an inflow of funds, but these can easily turn to an outflow of funds. Bust always follows boom, and Thailand will have a bust one day, just as every country will.But they aren't like Cyprus. Cyprus had a banking sector 8 times the size of it's economy, and was happy to be a haven for laundered money. Much of it is their own fault.

[davejones]

Europe and the UK will go down the road of Cyprus long before Thailand would

If you mean taxing people's savings, I doubt the UK would ever take that option. They would rather print money. The UK can print money, but Cyprus can't. That is a huge difference. Same with Thailand - they can also print money.

Having said that, I still have more faith in financial institutions in UK than Thailand. If I had £1 million in cash, I'd sleep better knowing it was in UK rather than Thailand. I think Thailand is fairly stable, but you never know when things will kick off. Thailand has a small possibility of falling apart. I doubt the UK would.

When will people ever learn ? Moved here 10 years ago, put my money in Thai banks, invested on SET, opened a business here. And today I am in a situation, where I don't have worry for the rest of my life. Not Champagne and kaviar, but a good normal life without financial worries. Have an English friend, very cautious economically, who actually was brave enough to listen to me, so he bought CPNRF about 3 years ago @ around 11, today the unitprice is 20, and is still giving a healthy yield every 3 months. Have recomended CPNRF here on TV a few times in the past and ofcourse no one took notice! Your loss.

BTW UK is falling apart already, so open your eyes and realise, that this is going to be the century of Asia. So why not look for investment-opportunities here ? Right in front of you.

I agree with most of what you say, and also have investments here. I just think UK banks are safer. Just check the many articles of expats losing money from fraudulent transactions in Thai banks. That is very rare indeed in the UK, as you would usually get refunded quite quickly. These types of things don't make me want to have large amounts of cash in a Thai bank. Investments here are slightly different.

I don't think UK is falling apart as much as you think. Asia is on the up, and I think it will continue, but many of the wonder stories (e.g. India) are already coming apart. When times are good, people always think they will last forever. UK will recover; I have no doubt about that. In fact, I have made quite a large amount of profit in the last few years just from my London properties. Puts your investments here to shame. Some things are better in the UK. Property investment is one. Prime London prices are up over 30% in about 3 years, and still rising. I couldn't get that type of profit here, and feel secure.

But I still agree that Asia is catching up with Europe. I would rather invest in Thailand than Greece for example. But Thailand as a country is only rated a few notches above junk status. UK has one of the best ratings in the world. You would do well to remember that. Just because you have done well for 10-20 years or whatever, does not make it super-safe here. Far from it. But heading in the right direction. Thailand will never overtake the UK in our lifetimes. The UK is still a very rich country. In fact, it's only about 3% behind its all-time peak. Many forget that.

The world is full of people that have made money over 10 years that think they know it all, only to get wiped out soon after. Don't forget that. It seem like you think that because your shares have done well, you think they will always do well. Many, many peiople had the same story. Now they are broke.

Edited March 19, 2013 by davejones

[belg]

rice scam is certainly helping the country into bankrupcy, spêcially when all the costly stocked rice will seem to be ROTTEN

infrastructure scam 2.200 billion in loans for unforseen works ?

floodscam ... 350 billion disappeared and nothing was done ...

wait till the 800.000 to 1.000.000 new car owners start not being able to pay back their loans, because they had to buy a new car for prestige

[kblaze]

LoL @ "my analysis" ...you mean "my thoughts"

[Commander Tamson]

The shady people were in Thailand long before you arrived.

How would you know how long I have been in Thailand?.

You must be at least a couple of hundred years old then

[fletchsmile]

Almost anything's possible. Very unlikely Thailand would go this way:

Thailand:

Much stronger and better regulated banking system.

Much less scope for money laundering as a result of better regulator and more restrictions. While people do complain about regulations and restrictions in banking here, the upside is they make it more difficult for foreign money launderers.

Most important part omitted in the poll. Banking sector size as multiple of GDP. Thailand's banking sector size is nowhere near 8 x Thailand's GDP !!!

Fletch

[BlackPuddingBertha]

Most important part omitted in the poll. Banking sector size as multiple of GDP. Thailand's banking sector size is nowhere near 8 x Thailand's GDP !!!

This I mentioned.

Much less scope for money laundering as a result of better regulator and more restrictions.

This I doubt. Thailand has made some minor improvements over the last few months, as a result of being named and shamed globally.

[MrWorldwide]

LoL @ "my analysis" ...you mean "my thoughts"

I don't even claim they are my thoughts - the voices often tell me to 'kill them - kill them all !'

[yoshiwara]

Laugh if you must naam, but my analysis happens to be shared by folk with a lot of letters after their names, and not all of those designations amount to 'SOB'

[yoshiwara]

Cyprus is living from money laundering for Russian mafia and only in a smaller part they are getting money from tourists while Thailand is earning money from agriculture, tourists, and production. In Cyprus locals do not work even in hotels. They use Philippians to clean after the tourists.

Cypriots are basically Greek and the banks invested almost exclusively in Greek debt that is the reason their banks have failed and put the island in a big hole everything else has been a contributory factor, including the money laundering.

Except for the Turkish ones who are basically Turkish.

[Naam]

Laugh if you must naam, but my analysis happens to be shared by folk with a lot of letters after their names, and not all of those designations amount to 'SOB'

i don't laugh, i have to hold back my tears

[Naam]

Cyprus is living from money laundering for Russian mafia and only in a smaller part they are getting money from tourists while Thailand is earning money from agriculture, tourists, and production. In Cyprus locals do not work even in hotels. They use Philippians to clean after the tourists.

Cypriots are basically Greek and the banks invested almost exclusively in Greek debt that is the reason their banks have failed and put the island in a big hole everything else has been a contributory factor, including the money laundering.

Except for the Turkish ones who are basically Turkish.

but not many of the 17% ethnic Turks who live in the southern Greek part nor the 99% ethnic Turks who live in "Northern Cyprus" have invested in Greek debt.

[wellred]

Fingers crossed it goes down the same route in the near future. Would be nice to get more bhat for my pound next time I holiday there.

Sent from my GT-I9300 using Tapatalk 2

[chainarong]

The lending requirement in Thailand alone would put most world banks to shame , there's no point in comparing, there's no comparison between cyprus and Thailand.

[NeverSure]

The lending requirement in Thailand alone would put most world banks to shame , there's no point in comparing, there's no comparison between cyprus and Thailand.

Yer kidding, right? Consumer debt soaring as no-down home loans and government subsidized car prices and smartphones put the Thai population into record debt.

Thai banks have 40% of their loans in real estate which I say is in a bubble. Certainly there are too many vacancies with many more developments online.

Do you know what fractional reserve banking is? Do you then know what happens to Thai banks if the real estate market hiccups? Have you thought about how fast foreign deposits would flee at the first sign of that hiccup, unwinding the fractional reserve system? Do you realize that the baht is strong because so much foreign money is flowing into Thailand and being exchanged for baht? What happens to the baht if the foreign money gets nervous and flees? What happens to the banks?

[chainarong]

The lending requirement in Thailand alone would put most world banks to shame , there's no point in comparing, there's no comparison between cyprus and Thailand.

Yer kidding, right? Consumer debt soaring as no-down home loans and government subsidized car prices and smartphones put the Thai population into record debt.

Thai banks have 40% of their loans in real estate which I say is in a bubble. Certainly there are too many vacancies with many more developments online.

Do you know what fractional reserve banking is? Do you then know what happens to Thai banks if the real estate market hiccups? Have you thought about how fast foreign deposits would flee at the first sign of that hiccup, unwinding the fractional reserve system? Do you realize that the baht is strong because so much foreign money is flowing into Thailand and being exchanged for baht? What happens to the baht if the foreign money gets nervous and flees? What happens to the banks?

We will see

[Naam]

Laugh if you must naam, but my analysis happens to be shared by folk with a lot of letters after their names, and not all of those designations amount to 'SOB'

being a European i have 8 letters in front of my name. when i introduced myself to Jedi Master Yoda this was his reaction:

[hawker9000]

Why is the question even being asked??

[MrWorldwide]

Fingers crossed it goes down the same route in the near future. Would be nice to get more bhat for my pound next time I holiday there. Sent from my GT-I9300 using Tapatalk 2

I wish for no such thing - the strong economy and full employment gives various political agitators in Thailand a whole lot less to work with. We aren't allowed to talk about the elephant in the room here, but when the inevitable does happen, I don't want to be in Thailand - esp if the economy is in the toilet. Having more baht in your pocket is absolutely useless if they blockade the airports.

[MAJIC]

Could they go the same way as Cyprus? NO,If they went the same way as the Financial state of Cyprus,would they levy a 10% penalty off of Foreigners Bank Accounts,in similar circumstances to those of Cyprus? IMHO? YES!

[MAJIC]

Tanks will roll before anyone touches 10% of anyones savings in this country

Including foreigners Bank Accounts?

[MAJIC]

Europe and the UK will go down the road of Cyprus long before Thailand would

Yet another reason for the UK to pull out of Europe,the weak will always drag down the strongest,how many more Bankrupt nations must be bailed out before the strongest learn their lesson,while the strongest are growing weaker!

[MAJIC]

Europe and the UK will go down the road of Cyprus long before Thailand would

Yet another reason for the UK to pull out of Europe,the weak will always drag down the strongest,how many more Bankrupt nations must be bailed out before the strongest learn their lesson,while the strongest are growing weaker!

No I can't see Thailand going the way of Cyprus,Thailand doesn't have the EEC Burden i.e being dragged down by other Bankrupt Nations who only joined the EEC for Handouts to rebuild their crumbling infrastructure,freabies,and social payments to thier people,the scale of which they could never provide for themselves! and now this year it's welcome to the gravy train Bulgaria and Rumania,need I say more?