When Will The Chiang Mai Building Bubble Burst?

[Thakkar]

Just because it's a bubble, doesn't mean it'll burst. That depends on leverage and bank balance sheets.

If buyers have bought with cash, or 50% down, you won't see defaults or panic selling or below cost distress sales. If bank balance sheets are healthy and majority shareholders are family members (which is mostly the case), there is no pressure to foreclose on properties or distress sell properties that are foreclosed. There could well be a long term leveling off, but maybe not a crash.

The biggest problem is that there are limited investment opportunities in Thailand. The stock market is too small with shares of listed companies too tightly held by families, bank deposit rates are lower than the inflation rate, most businesses monopolized by a handful of families...what's a guy with a couple of million burning a hole in his pocket supposed to do?

T

*BTW, I don't own any condos, so am not saying above to justify my own decisions.

[itsgottabedone]

itsgottabedone, how do you come up with your rule of thumb, "nothing in CM should be more than half the price of the equivalent in BKK"? I'm just curious why you think 50% is a good number. And how do you factor location into your equation?

Let's assume a developer builds the exact same building in Bangkok and in Chiang Mai. If the location in either one is much more desirable than the location in the other city, then wouldn't that effect your rule of thumb?

I'm just curious because I've never heard an idea like that before.

EDIT: Thanks for your post. Very interesting read

It's just a general rule i have regarding cost of living between CM and BKK. It's not an exact science but in general when i'm in BKK my daily expenses are double that of CM for similar activities (eating out, massage, beer, hospital expenses, room rent etc). Similarily i think the BKK thai community feel that much richer when in CM.

In my extreme example above of a CM high priced unit (88,000 bhat - Nimman). The same developer in a near equivalent location in BKK (low Suk soi) has an identical development which is currently selling at 158,000 bhat per sqm (same floor, same design, same furniture). Hence, approx. 56% and difficult to justify that rate in CM.

Of course there are other factors to consider and it's difficult to make like for like comparisons with location but there's enough information out there to gain some insight, particularly using BKK as a benchmark.

[WinnieTheKhwai]

Just because it's a bubble, doesn't mean it'll burst. That depends on leverage and bank balance sheets.

If buyers have bought with cash, or 50% down, you won't see defaults or panic selling or below cost distress sales. If bank balance sheets are healthy and majority shareholders are family members (which is mostly the case), there is no pressure to foreclose on properties or distress sell properties that are foreclosed. There could well be a long term leveling off, but maybe not a crash.

That may depend on someone's definition of a bursting bubble; you may very well be right that it won't cause a wider economic catastrophe. But having so many condominium units unneeded and empty may at some point lead to a sudden outbreak of common sense; where people scratch their heads and say '"Hm.. even as low as 15,000 baht I'm having trouble finding a renter for my 46 sq meter 4 million baht studio. Maybe I should have spent that money differently, given that it was an investment."

Edited April 9, 2013 by WinnieTheKhwai

[itsgottabedone]

• A breakdown of investors provides an interesting insight - on

  average approx. 50% are being purchased by BKK investors (not adverse to

  buying multiple units in the same development), 20% by a similar

  wealthy CM segment, 20% by 'other' SE Asian investors and at most 10% by

  westerners

• Approx. 80% are buying with cash (not finance)
• Many are being resold (still off plan) by investors looking on

  average to make 5,000 bhat per sqm profit i.e. buying early in the hope

  of turning a quick 200k profit on a 40sqm unit for example. I've

  witnessed this myself and units are indeed changing hands at least once,

  a full year before completion. Developers are starting to cash in on

  this practise by charging a 15,000-20,000 bhat fee for a change in

  contract ownership.

I'm curious where the above numbers, among others, come from.

Solely based on information provided by sales staff at each of the developments. Again these are approx. figures only. However in a few cases, where i was considering investing myself, i asked for an exact breakdown and they were happy to provide. I wanted to validate the trend: high % of BKK investors and low % of western investors.

[WinnieTheKhwai]

Of course there are other factors to consider and it's difficult to make like for like comparisons with location but there's enough information out there to gain some insight, particularly using BKK as a benchmark.

I'd use Pattaya as a benchmark, and then 1:1, with the understanding that the Chiang Mai unit really needs to be cheaper before it's a good deal, given that the price of land in sane locations is a bit lower. And Pattaya has a clear center where a good number of the people living there want to go to a lot (that's less clear in Chiang Mai.), and a demographic more inclined to condo living which increases demand.

If I wanted to invest 4million on a condo it probably wouldn't be in Chiang Mai, and it would be two separate (but adjacent) units which gives you the option of renting them out separately to a lower priced segment.

Edited April 9, 2013 by WinnieTheKhwai

[itsgottabedone]

Thanks for the long....but I thought very worthwhile.....post.

It is obvious you have some insight into this area.

Just to add one or two bits:

Swimming pools: how right many have token pools. The only worthwhile pool is rectangular and a decent enough size to do meaningful laps. Kidney shaped and circular cr*p with steps getting in the way ain't my idea of fun.

Common Area fees: I am all for scrupulous maintenance, but i think the CAFs being asked are too high especially as the buildings are new and will be saving on any large maintenance for some time. I favour special assessments for unexpected items as otherwise if the money's in the kitty, someone will find a way to spend it. Also very easy for developers who will probably carry the vote for the first year or two to do their snagging with CAFs why tempt them?

Mountain view: You're so right about having a garden or pool view being a good option I very much think so with the exception of some older condos where you can sometimes know you're OK for mountain views as you now have judgeable mature areas around.

Quality of construction materials: I've visited a few new buildings and though as you say in the more upmarket ones some things like doors have been custom made and of a moderately OK quality with good hardware, and there are usually a reasonable if not great number of power points, it's almost ubiquitous to see the 40 baht light fittings everywhere, and kitchen units in places like one-plus seem to still be of chipboard type base. Laminated floors and in The Resort they seemed to have some sort of plastic planking but haven't seem any real laid wood or marble floors these may be restricted to the older buildings, odd as they are not so terribly expensive.

I still don't think I've seen a slope inwards on a roof surround of outsanding horizontal surfaces to stop black staining in future and I can honestly say i have never seen a birdsmouth or any type of drip edge so water will hang under edges and eventually eat into the underlying mortar as well as go black. Basically most new units still have lots of exposed horizontal surfaces and it's not exactly cutting edge architecture more like primitive. I would also not fancy "modern" shapes as at one particular new condo. It will look modern for a very limited time then will look bloody awful. Classical....even if it's classical modern.....will endure much better.

BTW, where is this statement relating to:

The above is purely based on my observation from a number of visits but the general pattern seems to align with recently reported numbers from the Thai Real Estate Info Centre claiming: Of 3,000 units launched in the first 5 months to Feb 2013 there has been a 72% take up rate.

???

Again, thanks for the thoughts!

Here

There's a more detailed breakdown in another report from the same source ..will try to find.

[itsgottabedone]

I recently viewed a condo which was 46sqm and priced at 4m bhat. It worked out to be 88,000 bhat / sqm. This per sqm price was unimaginable just a couple of years ago but is a reality today.

• These units are indeed selling and at an incredible rate. This is not just a marketing ploy. Many developments not only sell out prior to construction but many near sell out prior to even a showroom being built or any extensive marketing. As has been reported some developments have sold out in a matter of days.
• A breakdown of investors provides an interesting insight - on average approx. 50% are being purchased by BKK investors (not adverse to buying multiple units in the same development), 20% by a similar wealthy CM segment, 20% by 'other' SE Asian investors and at most 10% by westerners
• Conversely this mad rush to buy is not matched by a mad rush to sell. These cash rich investors are happy to sit on these units until they receive an acceptable level of profit in resale or rental. The overall impact on the market, where this attitude prevails, can not be understated.

Super post! The above points specifically though, really sound like a textbook 'bubble'. People snapping it up for the fun of it (as 'investments') with no immediate need to actually live there or any immediate prospect to turn it into solid rental income. Then for investors from Bangkok, do those truly understand which are indeed desirable locations; hard to say without living here long term and knowing, for example, what traffic can be like in the Canal Rd/Huay Kaew/Nimman area. Which may then mean that developers can be less critical about location in turn, knowing that they'll sell out before a single spade goes into the ground. That in turn could less high-quality developers giving it a go.

With a price of 88K / sq meter, that is actually higher than the price of LAND around (or just outside) the superhighway/Aom Muang ring. As the scale of everything is much smaller in CM compared to Bangkok, that is a big premium to pay to be (wild guess) on Chang Klan Road or Nimmanhaemin, vs. mere minutes away from there just off Aom Muang or up/down the Canal Road. In Bangkok, youbetcha that's worth it to be in the inner city on a Skytrain stop vs way out in Minburi or beyond the airport. For Chiang Mai however you're talking a difference of about 3-4 minutes. And then, 3-4 minutes in which direction: if you're just outside of the ring you may very well be actually closer to many of the places you typically go to, such as schools, malls and hypermarkets, compared to having to get there from Chang Klan or Nimman.

So I'd say 'hm' before paying more for a square meter condo space than I would for a square meter empty land, in a similarly convenient location, no matter how luxurious. I'd have to be a full-time Nimman-bar-tiger before that starts making sense.

Agreed for that kind of money some land and a house slightly further out should be considered. However, a desirable location is subjective. Traffic and lack of transport options is a huge factor. For me, and i would imagine for much of the target market being close to a school is not an immediate imperative. My next move and / or investment would be somewhere in around Nimman / Huay Keaw in the knowledge i would have the option to walk to most of my daily venues. Kids will no doubt change my thinking.

[Thakkar]

Just because it's a bubble, doesn't mean it'll burst. That depends on leverage and bank balance sheets.

If buyers have bought with cash, or 50% down, you won't see defaults or panic selling or below cost distress sales. If bank balance sheets are healthy and majority shareholders are family members (which is mostly the case), there is no pressure to foreclose on properties or distress sell properties that are foreclosed. There could well be a long term leveling off, but maybe not a crash.

That may depend on someone's definition of a bursting bubble; you may very well be right that it won't cause a wider economic catastrophe. But having so many condominium units unneeded and empty may at some point lead to a sudden outbreak of common sense; where people scratch their heads and say '"Hm.. even as low as 15,000 baht I'm having trouble finding a renter for my 46 sq meter 4 million baht studio. Maybe I should have spent that money differently, given that it was an investment."

If there's no wider economic catastrophe, there's no major dive in the property market. Here's why: When a property is sold, the money has to go somewhere. As leverage is low, that will be a lot of cash. If interest rates remain low, as they most likely will through 2015 (as the FED has promised) with even the Japanese government now throwing money out of helicopters, there's no choice but to invest in another property. That could mean location-specific slumps, but, in the aggregate, no bursting. Now, granted, 'location-specific slump' could mean much of Chiangmai. However the choicest locations (wherever they are—I'm not familiar with this market) will remain mostly safe bets. Even if money is invested elsewhere, it generates economic activity, and that's a support for property prices.

My feeling is that the current crop of Thai property buyers are different from HK or London property buyers; they don't suffer from fight-or-flight syndrome and are not prone to panic on the downside. Partly, this is because of low leverage and partly because they're just cooler cucumbers and less stressed.

You've said elsewhere that you wouldn't invest in CM Condo. I'd agree. There seems to be a glut developing. For reasones I've stated, the glut will not lead to a price dive, but certainly plenty of empty condos producing little return.

T

[WinnieTheKhwai]

^ Yes, agree with all that.

BTW I guess 'm not saying I'd never invest in a condo in Chiang Mai, but rather that they don't build them in places where I'd really be interested. (Possible exception: Rim Ping Condominium) I'd love for example a low-rise (due to regulations would need to be maximum of 4 floors I believe) condominium on the land opposite Wat Chedi Luang. Or next to Wat Chiang Man where Glass House is.  Or Life in Town, Amora Thapae, the President or Anodard Hotels (renovated and) converted into condominium units.

To me the heart of town is the old city and along the river roughly in between Nakorn Ping Bridge and the Iron Bridge.

Nimman.. sure it's trendy and all but it's being turned in a miniature Bangkok traffic mess. There's nothing there that says 'Chiang Mai'. to me. (Well, CMU maybe)

There's only one condominium that I know of that I would consider truly central (Rim Ping).  With that in mind, something like this (2 bedroom, 2 bathroom) is worth considering at 3.5 mil: http://www.house-chiangmai.com/2-bed-2-bath-condo-at-rimping-condominium that would be a more solid bet (I think) than any new luxury condominium. (No it's not my place; dug it up as an example.

Edited April 9, 2013 by WinnieTheKhwai

[richard10365]

I'm glad to see the new malls. The one we have is so packed on the weekends. It's almost impossible to find parking. We need new malls.

Many of the new houses, which are very nice, are being bought by people from Bangkok. There are lots of people with lots of many there who are buying houses here. How long will this continue? Well.....Bangkok is sinking. I imagine as things get worse in Bangkok that demand in Chiang Mai will grow. Better buy now.

[Thakkar]

-snip-

There's only one condominium that I know of that I would consider truly central (Rim Ping).  With that in mind, something like this (2 bedroom, 2 bathroom) is worth considering at 3.5 mil: http://www.house-chiangmai.com/2-bed-2-bath-condo-at-rimping-condominium that would be a more solid bet (I think) than any new luxury condominium. (No it's not my place; dug it up as an example.

I'm glad to know that the linked condo pics is not your place. I would've lost all respect for you if it were. Those paintings on the walls, and the sofas are crimes against good taste.

T

[Thakkar]

After some years, a property is only as good as its

1) Maintenance

2) Location

The quality of maintenance can't be judged if you buy off plan unless the developer is known for sure to have a reputation for quality maintenance. Otherwise, buying an older condo that has proven to be well maintained over many years is a good choice.

Choosing the best location is a bit of a crapshoot. Bob Hope, who I think made way more money from his property investments than his entertainment career is reputed to have said: 'I buy at the end of the street and wait for the town to come to me.' Of course, he lived to be about 100, so he could afford to wait!

T

[cheeryble]

As predicted by Cheeryble the Chinese are indeed coming with extraordinary tourist numbers this year. I am surrounded by them as I write in Nimmanhemin CM.....they verge on the impolite as they order their ice drinks.

Tourism Statistics for March 2013 | Thai Travel News by Paknam Web

• Tourism statistics for March 2013 show a 19.19% increase in international travelers compared to the same month last year.
• In March 2013 there were 2,259,237 tourists arriving in Thailand compared to 1,895,560 the year before. So far this year there has been an 18.94% increase
• main group of visitors during March 2013 were Chinese at 396,895 tourist
• incredible 99.68% increase on this time last year.
• The second biggest group of tourists were Russians (190,816), followed by Malaysians (175,628), Japanese (133,650), Koreans (102,769), Germans (89,558), Indians (89,043), British (82,246), Americans (73,463) and Australians (71,935).

CM guesthouses and hotels are getting Chinese as their main group of guests.

This may have real effects on the condo market in CM, the nearest international destination.

Edited April 26, 2013 by cheeryble

[heybruce]

As predicted by Cheeryble the Chinese are indeed coming with extraordinary tourist numbers this year. I am surrounded by them as I write in Nimmanhemin CM.....they verge on the impolite as they order their ice drinks.

Tourism Statistics for March 2013 | Thai Travel News by Paknam Web

• Tourism statistics for March 2013 show a 19.19% increase in international travelers compared to the same month last year.
• In March 2013 there were 2,259,237 tourists arriving in Thailand compared to 1,895,560 the year before. So far this year there has been an 18.94% increase
• main group of visitors during March 2013 were Chinese at 396,895 tourist
• incredible 99.68% increase on this time last year.
• The second biggest group of tourists were Russians (190,816), followed by Malaysians (175,628), Japanese (133,650), Koreans (102,769), Germans (89,558), Indians (89,043), British (82,246), Americans (73,463) and Australians (71,935).

CM guesthouses and hotels are getting Chinese as their main group of guests.

This may have real effects on the condo market in CM, the nearest international destination.

If correct this means the Chinese outnumber German, British, American, and Australians combined in March. Based on what I saw during Songkran the trend continued into April.

The Chinese certainly have a right to travel (even their government has finally agreed to that) but they are upsetting the business model of a number of guesthouses. Many, perhaps all, guesthouses rent rooms at or below the break-even point and count on selling food, drink and tours to make a profit. Unfortunately the Chinese, or those who stay in guesthouses, tend to be extremely frugal and don't spend money on the profit makers. In spite of all the tourists, this was a disappointing Songkran for some businesses.

[heybruce]

I just realized the above is way off topic, so to bring it back in line: Any evidence the Chinese are buying any of these condos?

[OldChinaHam]

Heybruce, you pointed out that, "Unfortunately the Chinese, or those who stay in guesthouses, tend to be extremely frugal and don't spend money on the profit makers."

There is no surprise there. But one suggestion might be to start selling or supplying whatever it is that they want to buy which will make more of a profit. There are plenty of business people making a great deal of money off the Chinese from China. Maybe you need to hire a few Chinese to learn how to do it. I do not know if this might be true, but it is just a thought.

[Thakkar]

I too would like to know, if anyone has the info, whether the Chinese are buying condos in any numbers. If so, there may be major distortions in store. The Chinese tend to distort any markets they enter, be it property, gold, or baby milk formula. This is because of the sheer numbers involved.

T

[heybruce]

Heybruce, you pointed out that, "Unfortunately the Chinese, or those who stay in guesthouses, tend to be extremely frugal and don't spend money on the profit makers."

There is no surprise there. But one suggestion might be to start selling or supplying whatever it is that they want to buy which will make more of a profit. There are plenty of business people making a great deal of money off the Chinese from China. Maybe you need to hire a few Chinese to learn how to do it. I do not know if this might be true, but it is just a thought.

I'm not in the guesthouse business, I have friends who are. Hiring a few Chinese would double the staff of a small guesthouse, not a smart thing to do when struggling with finances, and not easy to do legally in terms of work visas. I'm sure people are making good money off of well-off Chinese tourists, but I'm not so sure anyone is doing well off of the guesthouse Chinese tourists.

Of course if the business model isn't working, the business must evolve or die. However I don't see an easy evolution for those catering to budget travelers and I'm afraid a lot of businesses will die. A lot of people may be happy to see fewer budget travelers in Chiang Mai, but the truth is that even though they don't spend a lot they still create a lot of jobs.

[cheeryble]

Many, perhaps all, guesthouses rent rooms at or below the break-even point

Must say I'm surprised Bruce.......why would they not charge to fit the market when they have high occupancy rates?

(Certainly true of the 3Sisters boutique hotel and the guest house I stay in CR is full or near full all year round and just put tehir prices up to where i think they're kinds expensive and i've moved.)

As for buying condos.

As I have mentioned before, about a year ago when I asked the Thai friend who partly ran the 3Sisters ....him having told me the Chinese were now his main guests......if he thought they were the type to buy property he told me he had been asked about the law several times.

Who knows, and of course it may take time. And of course we don't know it's not a flash in the pan due to the movie.

Personally I think they will come more and more, and I don't really like it. They will push prices up and I would be tempted to move.

Edited April 26, 2013 by cheeryble

[WinnieTheKhwai]

Frugal or not, they got to spend somewhere. And it would take some doing to manage to be more frugal than backpackers were 10-15-20 years ago.

In the end they need to spend on accommodation and food. And shopping; they do buy stuff. Businesses that aren't doing well just need to figure out how to cater to the changing market; they did it before, they can do it again.

This is probably worthy of a separate topic.

[elektrified]

Frugal or not, they got to spend somewhere. And it would take some doing to manage to be more frugal than backpackers were 10-15-20 years ago.

In the end they need to spend on accommodation and food. And shopping; they do buy stuff. Businesses that aren't doing well just need to figure out how to cater to the changing market; they did it before, they can do it again.

This is probably worthy of a separate topic.

Again, as has been said before, they may be frugal on accommodation but spend big at places like Central's all over Thailand and the C.M. Night Bazaar where they consider goods "cheap" and much cheaper than Hong Kong. And yes some are staying in small guest houses but others (many others) are staying at places like Khum Phaya for a few grand a night. Jan 1-March 1 the g/f was called in to help at the Spa there as they were overwhelmed and needed more spa technicians. She said on a daily basis the breakdown was about 40% Chinese, 30% Thai, 20% Japanese, and a mere 10% "farang" guests at the hotel and the spa.

I've been saying for more than a year now whenever this comes up and TV members who own businesses whine about how their Western tourist oriented businesses are doing poorly, that they need to adapt to changing times and demographics. The business is there, they just need to go out and get it. Actually I have learned a lot from my observation and although I am not involved in hospitality or any kind of business in Thailand, I can use a lot of what I learn and see to implement in my own business.

[hellodolly]

Many, perhaps all, guesthouses rent rooms at or below the break-even point

Must say I'm surprised Bruce.......why would they not charge to fit the market when they have high occupancy rates?

(Certainly true of the 3Sisters boutique hotel and the guest house I stay in CR is full or near full all year round and just put tehir prices up to where i think they're kinds expensive and i've moved.)

As for buying condos.

As I have mentioned before, about a year ago when I asked the Thai friend who partly ran the 3Sisters ....him having told me the Chinese were now his main guests......if he thought they were the type to buy property he told me he had been asked about the law several times.

Who knows, and of course it may take time. And of course we don't know it's not a flash in the pan due to the movie.

Personally I think they will come more and more, and I don't really like it. They will push prices up and I would be tempted to move.

Is there a building boom in Chiang Rai?

[AnotherOneAmerican]

I'm glad to see the new malls. The one we have is so packed on the weekends. It's almost impossible to find parking. We need new malls.

Many of the new houses, which are very nice, are being bought by people from Bangkok. There are lots of people with lots of many there who are buying houses here. How long will this continue? Well.....Bangkok is sinking. I imagine as things get worse in Bangkok that demand in Chiang Mai will grow. Better buy now.

How do you know this?

I have just bought a house on a new mooban of 250 houses, half have been sold, not met anyone from BK.

Typical purchase is by CM DINKYs with a bit of help from mum and dad.

Jobs in CM pay minimum wage to 50% more, nobody in BK is going to give up their job to work for minimum in CM.

No expat packages, no multi-nationals. No one who works for a living will be leaving BK.

Repeating this same old load of rubbish isn't going to make it true.

[cheeryble]

. Is there a building boom in Chiang Rai?

There seems to be quite a lot of potential moo bahn sites being filled and a handful of condos going up.A mini-boom?Will they sell? Who knows.....but I know of an older condo building where prices have really gone up a lot.Must bear in mind the money is much scarcer in CR.

. Repeating this same old load of rubbish isn't going to make it true.

I can't speak for BKKians in moo bahns but they do love to have pied a terres here and a fair few condo rooms are undoubtedly owned from BKK.They also strive to get back to their roots and whenever a holiday comes just look at the number plates to see Bangkok Mahanakorn on every third or fourth car.You think the flooding is irrelevant? Maybe. But it did seem to be coincident with a recent period of lots of BKK number plates looking around the countryside in CM. Edited April 27, 2013 by cheeryble

[binjalin]

^ Yes, agree with all that.

BTW I guess 'm not saying I'd never invest in a condo in Chiang Mai, but rather that they don't build them in places where I'd really be interested. (Possible exception: Rim Ping Condominium) I'd love for example a low-rise (due to regulations would need to be maximum of 4 floors I believe) condominium on the land opposite Wat Chedi Luang. Or next to Wat Chiang Man where Glass House is.  Or Life in Town, Amora Thapae, the President or Anodard Hotels (renovated and) converted into condominium units.

To me the heart of town is the old city and along the river roughly in between Nakorn Ping Bridge and the Iron Bridge.

Nimman.. sure it's trendy and all but it's being turned in a miniature Bangkok traffic mess. There's nothing there that says 'Chiang Mai'. to me. (Well, CMU maybe)

There's only one condominium that I know of that I would consider truly central (Rim Ping).  With that in mind, something like this (2 bedroom, 2 bathroom) is worth considering at 3.5 mil: http://www.house-chiangmai.com/2-bed-2-bath-condo-at-rimping-condominium that would be a more solid bet (I think) than any new luxury condominium. (No it's not my place; dug it up as an example.

I think skybreeze is just about top of the pile next to CMU (near Nimman) which, like it or not, IS trendier, sleeker has nicer bars, restaurants and the rest. Rim Ping is run-down, noisy and personally I don't like the location - each to his/her own i guess - link (nothing to do with me - an example) 3.1m 2 beds/1 bath

http://www.rentinchiangmai.com/rent-in-chiang-mai/buy-a-chiang-mai-apartment/chiang-mai-apartments-scb004.html

Edited May 14, 2013 by binjalin

[cheeryble]

I'm with Binjalim.

Skybreeze has a terrific and quiet backstreet position....great mountain views across CMU to west and south and pleasant outlook to east.....and is close to a quiet rather unknown university gate. Close to Nimman but too far for that lovely PrasertLand noise.

Possibly the best pool in any condo (saltwater) is lit up at night, and a good survey for the structure.

Although a lot has been done there it undoubtedly needs prettying work to be done in public areas, but I am told big improvements are being planned.

Hillside is well positioned, near the new mall, and has a certain peaceful air and is well run I know several people who are very happy there .

Rimping is quite nice but a lot more expensive and I also don't favour downtown.....but that's just taste.....some people will love it. Pool mediocre.

As for the general story in CM I can only say when I go past the condos which have already gone up recently they seem to have a full complement of cars underneath and blinds at the windows. Whether levels of occupation will keep up or whether a bit of catching up will need to happen later who knows, but so far looks certainly like the ones truly in CM are filling.

Have heard the latest going up Nimmana is 60% booked off plan no footings in yet. I have been told it's 76,000 psm.

Edited May 14, 2013 by cheeryble

[mascarakatze]

Of course there are other factors to consider and it's difficult to make like for like comparisons with location but there's enough information out there to gain some insight, particularly using BKK as a benchmark.

I'd use Pattaya as a benchmark, and then 1:1, with the understanding that the Chiang Mai unit really needs to be cheaper before it's a good deal, given that the price of land in sane locations is a bit lower. And Pattaya has a clear center where a good number of the people living there want to go to a lot (that's less clear in Chiang Mai.), and a demographic more inclined to condo living which increases demand.

If I wanted to invest 4million on a condo it probably wouldn't be in Chiang Mai, and it would be two separate (but adjacent) units which gives you the option of renting them out separately to a lower priced segment.

another incredibly valuable contribution DUH

[heybruce]

As for the general story in CM I can only say when I go past the condos which have already gone up recently they seem to have a full complement of cars underneath and blinds at the windows. Whether levels of occupation will keep up or whether a bit of catching up will need to happen later who knows, but so far looks certainly like the ones truly in CM are filling.

Have heard the latest going up Nimmana is 60% booked off plan no footings in yet. I have been told it's 76,000 psm.

I've lived in three different condominiums in Chiang Mai, in every one the parking was full but most of the units empty. I suspect this is a result of insufficient parking for the number of units, some unit owners rarely in Chiang Mai but using it's parking for long-term parking, and lax security letting people with no association with the condo using it for convenient parking. All finished units will have blinds in the windows regardless of occupancy or sales status.

Lots of "I heard" numbers on condo bookings, but no verifiable sources. Maybe the booking numbers are correct, that doesn't preclude the reckless speculation characteristic of a bubble.

[cheeryble]

I've lived in three different condominiums in Chiang Mai, in every one the parking was full but most of the units empty.

You managed to choose the three condominiums where "most of the units were empty"?

I wouldn't be able to take you to ONE like that.....certainly after it's had time to sell.

(unless you mean empty as in residents were away a lot)

ps: If I see a variety of different blinds and curtains at the windows I draw the obvious conclusion.

pps: actually I heard the Unique hadn't filled up yet, but that might not be surprising givenonly three months old and it's lousy location feet from next door condo and there's a Unique 2 now on plan which will steal the view of Unique 1 the other way!!

Edited May 15, 2013 by cheeryble

[heybruce]

I've lived in three different condominiums in Chiang Mai, in every one the parking was full but most of the units empty.

You managed to choose the three condominiums where "most of the units were empty"?

I wouldn't be able to take you to ONE like that.....certainly after it's had time to sell.

(unless you mean empty as in residents were away a lot)

ps: If I see a variety of different blinds and curtains at the windows I draw the obvious conclusion.

pps: actually I heard the Unique hadn't filled up yet, but that might not be surprising givenonly three months old and it's lousy location feet from next door condo and there's a Unique 2 now on plan which will steal the view of Unique 1 the other way!!

Have you lived in any condos in Chiang Mai? I've lived in Hillside 4, Cityview Condo, and Hillside 3, each for at least a year, most of rooms empty on the floors I lived on. That doesn't mean they weren't owned, but they were empty. Different blinds and curtains means that the owners chose not to put the same blinds and curtains in every unit. Wnen I open my curtains in my current Hillside 3 unit I have an excellent view of the new Punna Condo, and over the past four years I've seen activity in only a small number of the rooms.

The fact that units are owned does not mean there isn't a bubble. Most of the houses were owned when the bubble burst in the U.S. and many parts of Europe.