The Bt2 Trillion Shame: Views From The Future

[webfact]

STOPPAGE TIME
The Bt2 trillion shame: views from the future
Tulsathit Taptim

BANGKOK: -- The following conversation takes place in the year 2063. A five-year-old boy, his 25-year-old father and 50-year-old grandpa are having a virtual get-together one day ahead of the child's neurological implant that will make him 100 times smarter than the ancient Alan Greenspan.

Boy: Do I really need to do it, Dad? My friends all say the economics implant sucks. It gets all those statistics swirling in their heads. And anyway, I've just had political science implanted. Why do I have to know everything?

Father: Like our ancestors always said: if you don't know your history, you are a leaf that doesn't know it's a part of a tree. You already know everything about our political past, so it's time to complete the picture with all the economic numbers.

Grandpa: In other words, you need to know, for example, why we - our government and us - still can't shake off a Bt2-trillion debt some people created long before our time.

Boy: I thought they did it in your time.

Grandpa: Nope. This is why you need the implant, as it will make you get all the key dates right. The infrastructure development bill, or whatever they called it, was passed weeks before I was born, which is a minor comfort really, because it completely separated me from that generation of shame.

Boy: Is it true that much of the money was spent on railway overhaul? How silly. Didn't they anticipate the exponential growth of air travel? Didn't they know a genetics revolution was coming and that agricultural logistics would depend less and less on trains?

Father: Are you alluding to that famous "Veggies won't rot" defence of the Bt2 trillion borrowing?

Boy: I have all political quotes already embedded in my brain, remember?

Father: Whether or not Bt2 trillion saved vegetables from rotting, I'm not quite sure, but it's the borrowers whom the later generations wanted to see rotting in hell. How the hell they could put all the borrowed eggs basically in one railway basket is beyond me.

Boy: On the bright side, we are supposed to pay off that massive debt this year, aren't we?

Grandpa: After your economics implant tomorrow, you'll know that borrowing such a gigantic sum has to be religiously followed by what they call refinancing.

Boy: What's refinancing?

Father: You borrow again to pay off, or partially pay off, what you borrowed earlier.

Grandpa: And on and on it goes.

Boy: So, Grandpa, it sounds like you borrowed and left the burden of repayment to Dad, and Dad borrowed some more and left the burden to me. Is that what the Bt2 trillion thing is all about?

Father: Yes and no. Of course, it's like you keep passing on the burden to the next generation, but in this case you are both creditors and debtors. To be more specific, the government borrowed the money from the people, and had to tax the people to pay back the loans.

Boy: So, refinancing means they borrow more from us, and our so-called "debt" gets bigger?

Grandpa: You got it, kid. This is how economics and democracy work together. Best part is, all the real spenders do is borrow, spend and die. They don't have to account for anything.

Boy: At least our economy hasn't collapsed, has it?

Father: Oh, it must have in some alternate universe. Either we are lucky or we are damned to suffer longer than others.

Boy: I've changed my mind. I'll run to the neurological implant centre first thing tomorrow. Economics sounds like fun.

Grandpa: Don't take the train. Flying is faster and cheaper, unless you've got bored of bird's-eye views. And I've heard that NIC branches are opening up near your place and the downloads will be equally efficient. Check it out.

Boy: I will.

Father: I can't wait to see how you think about all this after implantation. There are other fascinating things as well. For example, you'll know how an entirely different situation all but wrecked the US economy.

Boy: My world history implant has that one, Dad. You mean when the ancient Americans were lured into borrowing like crazy and then couldn't pay back banks that had lent out money like crazy?

Father: Yes. It always amazes me how the ancients often lent or borrowed themselves into a financial mess. The economy is so easy to sustain. All you have to do is avoid reckless lending and reckless borrowing.

Boy: Maybe they didn't have the benefit of implants like we do.

Grandpa: You are too sympathetic, son. Let's see what you'll say after tomorrow. I think you'll come back calling a spade a spade, and greedy fools greedy fools.

-- The Nation 2013-04-03

[LuckyLew]

Greece ... Spain ... Ireland .. Italy ... Portugal ... Thailand

Living and spending beyond their means

KABOOM ... like a house built with a deck of cards

Only a matter of time

But the current puppets do not care as they are feeding on a kitty if 600 billion

[RickBradford]

An editorial in the mass daily Khao Sot put it like this:

This [2 trillion baht infrastructure] project will either turn out to be a visible turning-point in the life and economy of Thailand or it will be a project which creates an enormous debt which will be a heavy burden to be passed down to our children and grandchildren.

In general, the writer didn't sound very optimistic, more world-weary and cynical.

[Mampara]

Excellent, makes one think doesn't it?

[kotsak]

I wonder how much they paid for that train model at Toys'R'Us :>

[chainarong]

The BKK chamber of Commerce looks like it has made its mind up, no fourthought, no future.

[slapout]

Trust me/us:

We will make you rich post haste

We will provide all students with notebooks to further their education

We will control the world price of rice

We will improve health care for all Thai people

We will repair all the problems the country has, due to the Democrats influence (all problems solveable)

We will turn Thailand into a International hub for everything that you can imagine

We will place our most qualified people in all positions of authority

The secret to personal success is the accumulation of money via borrowing, from any and all entities

I will be home this year to lead you in the fight for justice, Shin style

Be Patient, we have a few details to work out, to ensure those dedicated to the cause (my family included) receive.

[hellodolly]

An editorial in the mass daily Khao Sot put it like this:

This [2 trillion baht infrastructure] project will either turn out to be a visible turning-point in the life and economy of Thailand or it will be a project which creates an enormous debt which will be a heavy burden to be passed down to our children and grandchildren.

In general, the writer didn't sound very optimistic, more world-weary and cynical.

I vote for realistic.

Perhaps if they had spent some time into investigating where the need for that much money would be best used it would make sense.

But to arbitrarily with out any planning for the future just pick a project that should have been here for years and bring it up to standards for today and no thought for the needs of tomorrow is ludicrous.

But then again this is the easiest way to skim the money of the top to fill there pockets.

[hellodolly]

Trust me/us:

We will make you rich post haste

We will provide all students with notebooks to further their education

We will control the world price of rice

We will improve health care for all Thai people

We will repair all the problems the country has, due to the Democrats influence (all problems solveable)

We will turn Thailand into a International hub for everything that you can imagine

We will place our most qualified people in all positions of authority

The secret to personal success is the accumulation of money via borrowing, from any and all entities

I will be home this year to lead you in the fight for justice, Shin style

Be Patient, we have a few details to work out, to ensure those dedicated to the cause (my family included) receive.

You could have added

Give me six months.

[Ianatlarge]

I don't blame the economic woes of Greece, Cyprus and the others on the people of these countries. Most of these people, like most people everywhere, are diligent and productive. I blame these problems on a handful of bankers and financiers who play games with other peoples money, make huge non-productive profits, and then have themselves bailed out and protected by governments.

As for trains, Europe is demonstrating that train travel is a better alternative to air travel in many cases. Spending money on infrastructure is usually a good idea, though I don't know enough of the details of this proposal to give a judgement.

[siampolee]

Indeed the easiest task in this world is to get into debt. The hardest part is to climb out of that pit of debt.

The people of Thailand are as I've said before are being pushed into a debt bondage sentence of many years so as the select few can further enrich themselves.

At my age the debt bondage sentence it will not really affect me, however my all of our children and their children are going to be picking up the bill.

Not one set of feasible plans or projects have been presented,all the hyperbole is gas bag rhetoric and still the people cannot understand the trap that is being set for them in the pursuit of riches for the selected corrupt few.

The alarm bells are already ringing yet the population in generalslumbers on peacefully due to crass ignorance and the idea that this debt will not asffect me.

Hmm, let's see why not take a survey team to Southern Ireland, Iceland, Greece to name bet a few nations to see what the man and the woman in the street think now regarding the mismanagement of their countries fiscal matters.

The politicians and the bankers and the speculators all staggered away, that staggering was due to the fact that their pockets were full of ill gotten financial and business and property gains, those gains were at the expense of the man and the woman in the street who were staggering under the delights of the financial burden they had received which was not of their making.

All we can hope for is the fact that this whole 2 trillion loan affair becomes a damp squib, thus saving Thailand and its peoples from a life of servitude in debt bondage courtesy of the P.T.P. (Parasites and Ticks Party) puppets whose strings are being pulled by their puppet master for his,and his family and their brown nosing acolytes sole benefits only.

[rametindallas]

I blame the people who elected politicians who promised the government would do everything for them and they wouldn't have to pay for it. Their governments borrowed, in their name, huge sums of money, refinanced older debts, lowered retirement age (even though people live longer; in Greece it was lowered to 57 years of age), free this and subsidised that, putting off the inevitable pain of 'paying the piper' and, the populace, with their heads buried in the sand, let them and reelected them. Yes, the voters are responsible for the mess they are in; not the bankers who gladly financed the politicians schemes (it they hadn't, there would be no free government programs that were so popular), not the politicians who only did what they promised the voters they would do. Most of these people are shocked to find that they can't pass the debt to their children and that they, now, have to pay the price, feel the pain. 'The chickens have come home to roost'.

edited for clarity

Edited April 3, 2013 by rametindallas

[Thailaw]

Greece ... Spain ... Ireland .. Italy ... Portugal ... Thailand

Living and spending beyond their means

KABOOM ... like a house built with a deck of cards

Only a matter of time

But the current puppets do not care as they are feeding on a kitty if 600 billion

To bundle Thailand in with the likes of Greece is complete nonsense. The problem in Thailand is not spending beyond its means, but rather spending that provides very little benefit to the people of Thailand.

[Thaddeus]

Greece ... Spain ... Ireland .. Italy ... Portugal ... Thailand

Living and spending beyond their means

KABOOM ... like a house built with a deck of cards

Only a matter of time

But the current puppets do not care as they are feeding on a kitty if 600 billion

To bundle Thailand in with the likes of Greece is complete nonsense. The problem in Thailand is not spending beyond its means, but rather spending that provides very little benefit to the people of Thailand.

The similarity is in spending money they don't have.

[redroo]

Their will be no fuel for any plane left in 50 years,

plus most of thailand and the world will be "under water world" with severe climate changes.

Good luck

[drdoom6996]

Trust me/us:

We will make you rich post haste

We will provide all students with notebooks to further their education

We will control the world price of rice

We will improve health care for all Thai people

We will repair all the problems the country has, due to the Democrats influence (all problems solveable)

We will turn Thailand into a International hub for everything that you can imagine

We will place our most qualified people in all positions of authority

The secret to personal success is the accumulation of money via borrowing, from any and all entities

I will be home this year to lead you in the fight for justice, Shin style

Be Patient, we have a few details to work out, to ensure those dedicated to the cause (my family included) receive.

You could have added

Give me six months.

Chalerm only needs 3 months and he hasn't fixed anything he has boasted about yet.

[Globeman]

Excellent, makes one think doesn't it?

I think this approach to political commentary is cheap, cheesy and stupid.

[xkmasada]

Phua Thai just doesn't have any vision of the future: a future where air transport uses less fuel than rail transport, where fuel is cheap and limitless, where government borrowing is recognized as being worse for the economy than private borrowing.

[belg]

the good thing for the government here is, even you pay tax, they don't give you a pension in return ... (if you don't work for the governement)

work hard, save good, than you can have a good retirement?

do nothing and you can be dependend on your children to provide you with the needed montly handout

[SOTIRIOS]

I wonder how much they paid for that train model at Toys'R'Us :>

.....no, that's it....that is all they get for the 2T.......

[maidu]

Subsequent Thai political administrations for the next 60 years: Two possible scenarios:

if the politicians are responsible - When someone proposes an infrastructure project, no matter the merits, that proposal will be shouted down, "we are still up to our necks in debt, from the Shinawatre debts from 2013 - we can't take on any more debt until this is paid off."

If the politicians are irresponsible, as they always have been: When someone proposes an infrastructure project, it and its heavy debt burden will be seriously considered, with the caveat: "businessmen and governments never shy away from borrowing money. What should they care? It's other peoples' money, so it will be 'other people,' (along with their kids and grandkids) who will be obliged to pay down the debt. Unless we follow the lead of the US and most African nations, and just ignore debt obligations altogether,

[kimamey]

Greece ... Spain ... Ireland .. Italy ... Portugal ... Thailand

Living and spending beyond their means

KABOOM ... like a house built with a deck of cards

Only a matter of time

But the current puppets do not care as they are feeding on a kitty if 600 billion

To bundle Thailand in with the likes of Greece is complete nonsense. The problem in Thailand is not spending beyond its means, but rather spending that provides very little benefit to the people of Thailand.

The similarity is in spending money they don't have.

Yes but for some like Spain it was for different reasons not really connected to the government which was one (possibly the only one) of the Eurozone countries that did balance it's budget.

[khunken]

Greece ... Spain ... Ireland .. Italy ... Portugal ... Thailand

Living and spending beyond their means

KABOOM ... like a house built with a deck of cards

Only a matter of time

But the current puppets do not care as they are feeding on a kitty if 600 billion

To bundle Thailand in with the likes of Greece is complete nonsense. The problem in Thailand is not spending beyond its means, but rather spending that provides very little benefit to the people of Thailand.

The similarity is in spending money they don't have.

Yes but for some like Spain it was for different reasons not really connected to the government which was one (possibly the only one) of the Eurozone countries that did balance it's budget.

Yes, in Ireland also it was a bank which had far overstepped its ability to lend for (crony) property projects that the Government bailed out (in secrecy) thereby bankrupting the country.

[notmyself]

Excellent, makes one think doesn't it?

I think this approach to political commentary is cheap, cheesy and stupid.

All the other methods have failed.

[RickBradford]

Perhaps Thailand should take its lead from the Cypriots -- take 60% of the wealth of anyone who has more than a billion baht.

Use that to pay for the people's infrastructure.

[axact]

Excellent, makes one think doesn't it?

I think this approach to political commentary is cheap, cheesy and stupid.

Whilst of course political commentary should not be cheap and cheesy as that would be reducing it to the level of all the dishonest politicians.

Jeez it you don't make light of politics you would end up crying over all the decisions made in the interests of the politcians alone (well and their families / cronies)

Respect is earned and I suspect very few politcians deserve to be treated as anything other than cheap cheesy and stupid

[Greer]

Phua Thai just doesn't have any vision of the future: a future where air transport uses less fuel than rail transport, where fuel is cheap and limitless, where government borrowing is recognized as being worse for the economy than private borrowing.

Hmmm... I seem to have accidentally fallen into a different continuum...one where air travel is cheap (and 10Km flights from town to town are commonplace)... and best of all...fuel is limitless... that would be the er.... um... not fossil fuel then... perhaps hydrogen...maybe they have solved the fusion problem...or thorium has finally been accepted... wow - this is a great place - must be careful not to accidentally trip and end up back in that world I was in then. I love it here!

[Greer]

Excellent, makes one think doesn't it?

I think this approach to political commentary is cheap, cheesy and stupid.

Whilst of course political commentary should not be cheap and cheesy as that would be reducing it to the level of all the dishonest politicians.

Jeez it you don't make light of politics you would end up crying over all the decisions made in the interests of the politcians alone (well and their families / cronies)

Respect is earned and I suspect very few politcians deserve to be treated as anything other than cheap cheesy and stupid

How dare you insult low cost dairy produce just because its not very bright.

[nodomino]

This will be the mother of all feeding frenzies. Thai people will be left with the bones and the debt.

[notmyself]

This will be the mother of all feeding frenzies. Thai people will be left with the bones and the debt.