North Korea, How Far Can It Escalate?

[klubex99]

It is looking more and more imminent that North Korea are intending to fire one or two medium range ballistic missiles, according to the latest news that the US spy satellites have located them and they are already prepped for launch and expecte3d to go any time now. (not my words).

My question is... Do you feel safe here in Thailand? I feel very safe myself, but just how far can this get out of hand. I know at the moment it is just a few countries, but look how WW11 escalated. Well beyond anyone's imagination back in 1939.

Is it right to feel safe? or is it more justified to feel nervous?

Edited April 9, 2013 by klubex99

[BB1955]

I feel very safe here . If I were in North Korea I would feel very unsafe ......

[tuky]

I feel very safe here . If I were in North Korea I would feel very unsafe ......

So nothing out of the ordinary then...

[ExpatOilWorker]

Asia will most likely see war within the next 10 years, but it will be caused by North Korea's big brother.

For now I feel safe.

[Kitsune]

A war is very unlikely ...

What Kim Jon Un is trying to achieve is media hysteria to hit South Korea's economy. Investors in South Korea are already losing confidence, as explained in this NY Times article

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/07/world/asia/tensions-with-north-korea-unsettle-south-korean-economy.html?_r=0

Edited April 10, 2013 by Kitsune

[homeownership]

Half the population in North Korea are starving to death, while the other half are in the military and eat the minimum. Kim Jong Un knows what happens to dicatators. Fearing this he creating a war of his own making in order to negotiate a better deal for North Korea with the international community or actually follow through on his threats which would in the brain washed minds of his people make him look strong.

You have a armed forces of 4 million people and reserves of 12 - 15 million (no one really knows), nuclear state, missles galore and an mad man weilding his fathers gun.

Safe is not a word I would choose to employ.

There is no where to hide from a Thermonuclear exploision above the ground. it throws up enough dust to cause a nuclear winter, which bloats out the sun. Possible for months even years.

It is thought that North Korea have employed a scientist that helped Libya, Iran and Pakistan achieve the miniturisation of the thermonuclear device and they wish to go live with it, but no one wants to take them on.

This is a very dangerous time for all of us.

[muythai2013]

it will not block out the sun at all, not near the explosive force to achieve that.

If they were to start it would be a heavy artillery assault by the North, along with missiles aimed at South Korean targets.

for appr a week it will look bad but the counter strike will turn the tide rather quickly once the North loses total control of the air and sea, after that they must enter through the most fortified border on Earth, no chance.

Only option would be a nuclear strike, they have very few, the spooks from the USA will have been listening to the North for years and know where every missile silo is and once they hear one is going to be fired its unlikely they could get one of the ground before the silos are put out of commision in a preemptive strike.

no Air, no sea, no way over the border, missiles out of commision, just a massive ground force in the end being taken apart, big loses for all, North Korea loses big time due to lack of funds to continue a sustained war for any long amount of time.

[CharlieH]

As one reporter put it, to actually press the button would be suicidal ! Its all about gaining political power and position in North Korea.

[Loptr]

His bluff has been called.

It's time to put up or shut up as the saying goes.

Kim has put himself in a position that no Asian would ever hope to find themselves. He is about to lose face on a world stage in the worst possible way. The only way it could be worse is if his mommy pulled down his pants and publicly spanked him on television.

[muythai2013]

he should declare war on his barber

[klubex99]

As one reporter put it, to actually press the button would be suicidal ! Its all about gaining political power and position in North Korea.

I absolutely agree. It would be very suicidal, but a dying nation (and that's what it is) left with one ace in their hand, and a clearly stupid leader (and yes he is) a programmed population, 1.2 million armed forces 90% of which within a few miles of the DMZ and a reserve of 8 million, which I believe represents all males between 16 and 60. A munition stockpile which is reported to be one of the largest in the world (thanks to the Chinese and Russians). Thousands of tanks and heavy artillery of every size and description. And lastly of course their nukes and possibly dirty bombs.

The vast majority of all this is poised as it has been for years right along the border.

I think that the regime will be wiped out, and we all know that immature twerp and his top military know it themselves. But do they even care? Who knows what is really going on in their pea brains.

Maybe the best they think that can come of it, is that they know for a fact they can inflict massive casualties against SK and the US bases. Never underestimate what their capabilities are. They can have massive amounts of forces in Seoul in an hour. Can you imagine the barrage from a million screaming lunatics armed to the teeth with little or no fear of death and with the belief that they can win?

In the build up to almost ALL conflicts, the public always underestimates the task of the job. I have heard so many times... The US will flatten them, they seem to think there will be no resistance. I would be very surprised if the US and SK can overcome an attack of such a huge magnitude.

The problem here, is that most people seem to be laboring under the misunderstanding that NKs military has out-dated equipment. On the contrary, they have very sophisticated and very modern conventional weapons. Considering they have been spending more than 20% of their GDP for years on their military, and it aint being spent on food.

If they do go all out, then I think people are going to be shocked to the extreme at the size of the bloodbath. It could well end up with NK occupying SK for some time and forcing the allies to fight them on the streets of their ally. Making it very long and drawn out.

They can easily soften up the US by pummeling their SK bases into submission. They may be lunatics, but they are not daft. I don't think that Thailand will be at risk, even if the US uses this place as a base. NK won't want to get stretched thinly, they will want to stay concentrated.

Just my honest opinion.

[klubex99]

His bluff has been called.

It's time to put up or shut up as the saying goes.

Kim has put himself in a position that no Asian would ever hope to find themselves. He is about to lose face on a world stage in the worst possible way. The only way it could be worse is if his mommy pulled down his pants and publicly spanked him on television.

Excellent post.

[muythai2013]

As one reporter put it, to actually press the button would be suicidal ! Its all about gaining political power and position in North Korea.

I absolutely agree. It would be very suicidal, but a dying nation (and that's what it is) left with one ace in their hand, and a clearly stupid leader (and yes he is) a programmed population, 1.2 million armed forces 90% of which within a few miles of the DMZ and a reserve of 8 million, which I believe represents all males between 16 and 60. A munition stockpile which is reported to be one of the largest in the world (thanks to the Chinese and Russians). Thousands of tanks and heavy artillery of every size and description. And lastly of course their nukes and possibly dirty bombs.

The vast majority of all this is poised as it has been for years right along the border.

I think that the regime will be wiped out, and we all know that immature twerp and his top military know it themselves. But do they even care? Who knows what is really going on in their pea brains.

Maybe the best they think that can come of it, is that they know for a fact they can inflict massive casualties against SK and the US bases. Never underestimate what their capabilities are. They can have massive amounts of forces in Seoul in an hour. Can you imagine the barrage from a million screaming lunatics armed to the teeth with little or no fear of death and with the belief that they can win?

In the build up to almost ALL conflicts, the public always underestimates the task of the job. I have heard so many times... The US will flatten them, they seem to think there will be no resistance. I would be very surprised if the US and SK can overcome an attack of such a huge magnitude.

The problem here, is that most people seem to be laboring under the misunderstanding that NKs military has out-dated equipment. On the contrary, they have very sophisticated and very modern conventional weapons. Considering they have been spending more than 20% of their GDP for years on their military, and it aint being spent on food.

If they do go all out, then I think people are going to be shocked to the extreme at the size of the bloodbath. It could well end up with NK occupying SK for some time and forcing the allies to fight them on the streets of their ally. Making it very long and drawn out.

They can easily soften up the US by pummeling their SK bases into submission. They may be lunatics, but they are not daft. I don't think that Thailand will be at risk, even if the US uses this place as a base. NK won't want to get stretched thinly, they will want to stay concentrated.

Just my honest opinion.

and how do you figure NK could sustain a drawn out war.

you need money, and friends to purchase goods to continue restocking your weapons.

you say they could be in seoul in an hour, are you even remotely aware of the fortifications on the border, do you think south korea with Americas backing over the years has just been setting up noodle shops.

Wars are expensive in the long run, NK does not have the means to fight for long.

[klubex99]

As one reporter put it, to actually press the button would be suicidal ! Its all about gaining political power and position in North Korea.

I absolutely agree. It would be very suicidal, but a dying nation (and that's what it is) left with one ace in their hand, and a clearly stupid leader (and yes he is) a programmed population, 1.2 million armed forces 90% of which within a few miles of the DMZ and a reserve of 8 million, which I believe represents all males between 16 and 60. A munition stockpile which is reported to be one of the largest in the world (thanks to the Chinese and Russians). Thousands of tanks and heavy artillery of every size and description. And lastly of course their nukes and possibly dirty bombs.

The vast majority of all this is poised as it has been for years right along the border.

I think that the regime will be wiped out, and we all know that immature twerp and his top military know it themselves. But do they even care? Who knows what is really going on in their pea brains.

Maybe the best they think that can come of it, is that they know for a fact they can inflict massive casualties against SK and the US bases. Never underestimate what their capabilities are. They can have massive amounts of forces in Seoul in an hour. Can you imagine the barrage from a million screaming lunatics armed to the teeth with little or no fear of death and with the belief that they can win?

In the build up to almost ALL conflicts, the public always underestimates the task of the job. I have heard so many times... The US will flatten them, they seem to think there will be no resistance. I would be very surprised if the US and SK can overcome an attack of such a huge magnitude.

The problem here, is that most people seem to be laboring under the misunderstanding that NKs military has out-dated equipment. On the contrary, they have very sophisticated and very modern conventional weapons. Considering they have been spending more than 20% of their GDP for years on their military, and it aint being spent on food.

If they do go all out, then I think people are going to be shocked to the extreme at the size of the bloodbath. It could well end up with NK occupying SK for some time and forcing the allies to fight them on the streets of their ally. Making it very long and drawn out.

They can easily soften up the US by pummeling their SK bases into submission. They may be lunatics, but they are not daft. I don't think that Thailand will be at risk, even if the US uses this place as a base. NK won't want to get stretched thinly, they will want to stay concentrated.

Just my honest opinion.

and how do you figure NK could sustain a drawn out war.

you need money, and friends to purchase goods to continue restocking your weapons.

you say they could be in seoul in an hour, are you even remotely aware of the fortifications on the border, do you think south korea with Americas backing over the years has just been setting up noodle shops.

Wars are expensive in the long run, NK does not have the means to fight for long.

Lol.... Exactly the type of attitude I was pointing out in my post.

For starters... 60 years of stockpiling weapons, they have enough to go for years. Don't make the mistake that they are just armed with catapults... They got it all, probably 100 times more firepower than the US and SK have on that border.

They don't need friends to help them, but some may end up getting dragged into it.

Most of those fortifications are NK. The US and SK defenses can only stand up to so much. In a conventional war, they are no match for NK on the border. The allies are not ready for a massive ground assault. They may knock out a few hundred thousand, and that would be a massive task, but they will just keep coming.... remember, they are suicidal.

No matter how many NK fall, they will be replaced very quickly, what do you think the US and SK are going to do? kill all 9 million? How will that look? Do you think that the US will do that? I don't. But I do believe that the North are determined and crazy enough to go all in.

This superiority attitude makes me laugh. The allies will not be able to cope with the sheer volume, trust me on that. they are not bomb proof, and NK still have the ability to rain down 5000 shells a minute onto these defenses.

You make it sound like the US and SK just need to push a few buttons and all the NK army will disappear.

So naive my friend. This is not Baghdad where the US had it all organized for a year ahead of their invasion of Iraq. They won't get any warning from NK.

Even the US military top brass admitted that a full assault would be very difficult to stop.

Edited April 10, 2013 by klubex99

[CobraSnakeNecktie]

I think the grand leader just made a boo boo in his pants

Edited April 10, 2013 by CobraSnakeNecktie

[MrWorldwide]

If the South Koreans can adopt a 'business as usual' attitude to this nutjob kiddie-leader, I suspect that most in BKK can do the same. This is one time where mai pen rai actually makes a great deal of sense to me - cant fix it, so why do your head in ? Thailand survived WWII, the Korean War, Vietnam, the genocide in Cambodia, the Vietnamese-Cambodian war, military coups in Burma - I think they'll pull through this little 'emergency'.

[aussiebebe]

I don't see it escalating; most rhetoric is intended for the North Korean people, to bolster support for Mr Bowl-cut ahead of the anniversary.

[briboy]

If the South Koreans can adopt a 'business as usual' attitude to this nutjob kiddie-leader, I suspect that most in BKK can do the same. This is one time where mai pen rai actually makes a great deal of sense to me - cant fix it, so why do your head in ? Thailand survived WWII, the Korean War, Vietnam, the genocide in Cambodia, the Vietnamese-Cambodian war, military coups in Burma - I think they'll pull through this little 'emergency'.

maybe he just might put a couple of water ballons on the missiles and send them to TH on friday with a HAPPY SONGRAN note attached

[Swiss1960]

A very good article from IISS (International Institute for Strategic Studies) about the military balance on the Peninsula can be found here

It ends like this:

Conclusion

The combination of North Korea’s long economic decline and enhanced US and South Korean military capabilities has diminshed the threat of a North Korean invasion of South Korea. Nonetheless, North Korea retains the ability to inflict heavy casualties and collateral damage, largely through the use of massed artillery. In effect, Pyongyang has more of a threat to devastate Seoul than to seize and hold it. North Korea’s conventional threat is also sufficient to make an allied pre-emptive invasion to overthrow the North Korean regime a highly unattractive option. In theory, US forces could carry out pre-emptive attacks to destroy known North Korean nuclear facilities and missile emplacements, but such attacks could provoke North Korean retaliation and trigger a general conflict.

North Korea cannot invade the South without inviting a fatal counter-attack from the US and South Korea, while Washington and Seoul cannot overthrow the North Korean regime by force or destroy its strategic military assets without risking devastating losses in the process. In this respect, the balance of forces that emerged from the Korean War, and which helped in maintaining the armistice for 50 years, remains in place. None of the principal parties want to fight a war although they are prepared to fight if necessary. In this respect, the balance of forces creates certain vulnerabilities since it places a high premium on carrying out a pre-emptive strike if one side or the other believes that an attack is imminent. The danger is that war will begin out of miscalculation, misperception and escalation, rather than design. As a consequence, reduction of political tensions and conventional confidence-building measures can help to reduce the risk of war.

[nong38]

The leader I believe had a list of cards he could play one at a time and look as if he was making all the moves, solidifying his position at home and justifying the cost of the military. WE have to hope he does not misjudge the moves of the US, its a different culture. Sooner or later his cards will run out and it will then be a put up or shut off situation. If NK launch a missile it is inviting someone, probably Japan, to shoot it down, that could well be the determining point of the crisis.

[farang000999]

All those "The USA spends too much on it's military defending other countries" people sure are quiet.

[nottocus]

As one reporter put it, to actually press the button would be suicidal ! Its all about gaining political power and position in North Korea.

I absolutely agree. It would be very suicidal, but a dying nation (and that's what it is) left with one ace in their hand, and a clearly stupid leader (and yes he is) a programmed population, 1.2 million armed forces 90% of which within a few miles of the DMZ and a reserve of 8 million, which I believe represents all males between 16 and 60. A munition stockpile which is reported to be one of the largest in the world (thanks to the Chinese and Russians). Thousands of tanks and heavy artillery of every size and description. And lastly of course their nukes and possibly dirty bombs.

The vast majority of all this is poised as it has been for years right along the border.

I think that the regime will be wiped out, and we all know that immature twerp and his top military know it themselves. But do they even care? Who knows what is really going on in their pea brains.

Maybe the best they think that can come of it, is that they know for a fact they can inflict massive casualties against SK and the US bases. Never underestimate what their capabilities are. They can have massive amounts of forces in Seoul in an hour. Can you imagine the barrage from a million screaming lunatics armed to the teeth with little or no fear of death and with the belief that they can win?

In the build up to almost ALL conflicts, the public always underestimates the task of the job. I have heard so many times... The US will flatten them, they seem to think there will be no resistance. I would be very surprised if the US and SK can overcome an attack of such a huge magnitude.

The problem here, is that most people seem to be laboring under the misunderstanding that NKs military has out-dated equipment. On the contrary, they have very sophisticated and very modern conventional weapons. Considering they have been spending more than 20% of their GDP for years on their military, and it aint being spent on food.

If they do go all out, then I think people are going to be shocked to the extreme at the size of the bloodbath. It could well end up with NK occupying SK for some time and forcing the allies to fight them on the streets of their ally. Making it very long and drawn out.

They can easily soften up the US by pummeling their SK bases into submission. They may be lunatics, but they are not daft. I don't think that Thailand will be at risk, even if the US uses this place as a base. NK won't want to get stretched thinly, they will want to stay concentrated.

Just my honest opinion.

and how do you figure NK could sustain a drawn out war.

you need money, and friends to purchase goods to continue restocking your weapons.

you say they could be in seoul in an hour, are you even remotely aware of the fortifications on the border, do you think south korea with Americas backing over the years has just been setting up noodle shops.

Wars are expensive in the long run, NK does not have the means to fight for long.

I spoke to a US colonel in Seoul. He said all predictions had the NK taking Seoul in 24 hours and then heading south. After that, it would be about pushing them back.

[FunFon]

All those "The USA spends too much on it's military defending other countries" people sure are quiet.

-

The USA spends WAY too much on its military defending other countries.

South Korea's rich enough to take care of itself, America should have been out of there fifty years ago.

But of course that's a "SHOULD" based on the interests of common people of America. In fact it suits US foreign/military policy to have bases this side of the world, lots of money to be made by the cronies of whatever puppets currently hold government positions.

The main difference between North Korea's and the US versions of democracy is that everyone knows and admits the former is a joke.

[metisdead]

There was a similar topic recently along these lines that could not stick to being Thailand related, same as this topic. There are topics regarding North Korea in the World News section, carry on the discussion in one those topics.

//CLOSED//