Thailand's Political Crisis - Compromise Is Still Possible

[Jai Dee]

Compromise is still possible

Both sides in the conflict must keep options open for a peaceful solution, no matter how remote it may seem

As tension continues to mount, the vociferous anti-Thaksin movement and embattled caretaker Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra appear to be running out of options to achieve a peaceful settlement to the political crisis, which is quickly moving towards a dead end that could set the stage for a violent confrontation between the opposing camps. Following a series of closely choreographed manoeuvres, it appears that neither side is prepared to back down from its latest position.

The anti-Thaksin camp is adamant in its demand for Thaksin to step down unconditionally as caretaker leader, and perhaps to quit politics altogether, to pave the way for constitutional reform to be followed by a free and fair election. They argue that Thaksin has already lost the legitimacy to rule as a democratic leader after ruthlessly distorting, undermining and exploiting the country's political and economic systems to enrich himself and his cronies over the past five years.

The prime minister, after some vacillation, has vowed to stay put and go ahead with the general election, which is basically a one-horse race featuring Thaksin's mighty Thai Rak Thai Party competing against a handful of small obscure parties. As things stand, the ever-defiant prime minister, who by all accounts continues to enjoy enormous popularity among the rural masses, looks set to return to power.

If the election actually takes place, Thaksin will likely be hounded by the same questions of political legitimacy, even if he makes a comeback as a third-term prime minister with absolute control of the House of Representatives due to the opposition's refusal to participate.

As frustrating and infuriating as this stalemate is, it must be made clear to any would-be instigators of violence that whichever side they belong to, they cannot hope to carry the day through the use of force.

With this in mind, it is encouraging to see protest organisers and peaceful demonstrators who have laid siege to Government House since Monday continue to strictly adhere to the self-imposed principle of non-violence. At the same time, credit must also go to the Royal Thai Police, responsible for peacekeeping and security, for their extraordinary restraint and discipline.

Remarkable though it may seem, the peaceful nature of the anti-Thaksin demonstration and the sensible crowd-control tactics employed by police are not a guarantee that violent confrontation will not occur as the political conflict drags on. Protest leaders and Thaksin have a great responsibility on their shoulders to avoid violence and to keep options open for peaceful solutions to political differences, no matter how unlikely they may seem.

Indeed, a number of potential solutions to break the current impasse have emerged that are worth exploring. According to constitutional law experts and political scientists, any attempt at peaceful resolution to this political crisis will inevitably involve some tweaking of the Constitution. It is a matter of how little or how invasive this tinkering should be in regards to the highest law of the land.

Proponents of the more drastic approach call for a very broad interpretation of Article 7, which they argue empowers HM the King to intervene to end the deadlock by appointing a caretaker prime minister to replace Thaksin. The new prime minister would be charged with overseeing proposed constitutional amendments and the general election would be postponed to a later date after the completion of the constitutional reform process.

Another approach requires as much adherence to the current charter as possible, getting the Election Commission to postpone the April 2 election, while Thaksin steps down and the anti-Thaksin movement ends its campaign at the same time to allow a new Senate to be elected on April 19. The newly elected Upper House would appoint an independent body to amend the Constitution just in time before the next general election.

A willingness to think outside the box could prove to be a major asset in these extraordinary circumstances. But it all depends on the willingness of the opposing camps to strike a compromise. The most trying questions deal with what compromises are possible and appropriate. It will have to be decided whether Thaksin will be offered a blanket pardon or be brought to justice for his alleged transgressions against Thailand's democracy and people.

Source: The Nation - Editorial Opinion - Sat, March 18, 2006

[bannork]

Jai Dee,The Nation is undoubtedly flattered you're constantly quoting their articles as opposed to The Bangkok Post, is it because you can still get the full copy of The Nation on the internet whilst The Bangkok Post is only a summary?

I expect The Nation's worried you're cutting into their subscriber base and will soon follow suit!

[britmaveric]

Not much of a compromise...

[jdinasia]

Jai Dee,The Nation is undoubtedly flattered you're constantly quoting their articles as opposed to The Bangkok Post, is it because you can still get the full copy of The Nation on the internet whilst The Bangkok Post is only a summary?

I expect The Nation's worried you're cutting into their subscriber base and will soon follow suit!

huh? if it available freely online then he's not hurting their subscription base .... they MIGHT be ... but they might also be buying loyalty when people come from overseas and are looking for an English language newspaper here

[Crushdepth]

Does anyone know what these constitutional amendments actually are?

[lukamar]

Compromise is still possible

Another approach requires as much adherence to the current charter as possible, getting the Election Commission to postpone the April 2 election,

From the Royal Thai Embassy, Ottawa, Canada Website.

Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra announced the dissolution of the Parliament. A nationwide General Election is scheduled for April 2, 2006 for Thai Citizens in Thailand. Overseas Thais in Canada can cast their ballots during 17-26 Mar 06 for the General Election and during 1-10 Apr. for the Senate Election. Due to our election laws, those who registered to vote after 24 Feb. and before 23 Mar. will be eligible to vote only in the Senate Election. We apologize for any inconveniences that this may cause.

===========

Absentee voting is presently in progress at Royal Thai Embassies and Royal Thai Consulates outside of Thailand.

[lukamar]

Does anyone know what these constitutional amendments actually are?

Thailand has had 17 constitutions in the past 74 years that's roughly one every 4 1/4 years. The 1997 version was suposed to be a breakthrough for democracy, it has lasted double the time, 9 years.

It's hard to say what constitutional changes may be in the end, a lot will depend on who comes out of all this political mess holding the trophy.

[ColPyat]

From what i can gather both sides, but especially the PAD, are not willing to compromise. Chamlong, for example, has exressed several times that he will under no circumstances back down from the demand that Thasin resigns. And so have other key people in the PAD.

[Old Man River]

ColPyat, I very much agree with you, although the major hurdle to compromise appears to be Sondhi. His fowl language and hand gestures have angered many. This is not the Thai way. He is causing obstacles to compromise. Politics aside, the PM has done a lot of good for the Country. What has Sondhi done?

[Siripon]

ColPyat, I very much agree with you, although the major hurdle to compromise appears to be Sondhi. His fowl language and hand gestures have angered many. This is not the Thai way. He is causing obstacles to compromise. Politics aside, the PM has done a lot of good for the Country. What has Sondhi done?

TRT insisted PAD dissolved their rally if talks went ahead, why?

Both Aphisit and the PAD have said they are willing to hold open talks with Thaksin but he insists any talks must be private.

Why? If the sale of Shin Corps to Temarak was legal with no involvement by the PM who has repeatedly said over the years he has washed his hands of the day to day running of his business to show his compliance with the laws, why does he persist in refusing to discuss the issue in public?

If I was accused of a serious offence such as selling out the country and I was innocent, I would demand an immediate debate\ discussion on TV.

His only defence is to tour the provinces saying the only test of democracy is the number of votes you can win. If he gets over 50% he'll say no one has the right to scrutinise or monitor him for another 4 years, this is Thaksin democracy, a true example of mob rule.

[hammered]

ColPyat, I very much agree with you, although the major hurdle to compromise appears to be Sondhi. His fowl language and hand gestures have angered many. This is not the Thai way. He is causing obstacles to compromise. Politics aside, the PM has done a lot of good for the Country. What has Sondhi done?

TRT insisted PAD dissolved their rally if talks went ahead, why?

Both Aphisit and the PAD have said they are willing to hold open talks with Thaksin but he insists any talks must be private.

Why? If the sale of Shin Corps to Temarak was legal with no involvement by the PM who has repeatedly said over the years he has washed his hands of the day to day running of his business to show his compliance with the laws, why does he persist in refusing to discuss the issue in public?

If I was accused of a serious offence such as selling out the country and I was innocent, I would demand an immediate debate\ discussion on TV.

His only defence is to tour the provinces saying the only test of democracy is the number of votes you can win. If he gets over 50% he'll say no one has the right to scrutinise or monitor him for another 4 years, this is Thaksin democracy, a true example of mob rule.

Thank you. Many people miss the point that a lot of the protestors were initially only asking for the check and balance mechanisms to look at the PM's actions. It was the PM who disolved parliment before a second impeachment complaint and who decided that the people's election of a new legislature should trump the check and balance mechanisms that are supposed to ensure elected leaders and representatives follow laws. Bizarre.

[ColPyat]

[

Both Aphisit and the PAD have said they are willing to hold open talks with Thaksin but he insists any talks must be private.

Why?

If you had openly televised talks the only outcome will be that both sides will have a debate that speaks to the crowd and solves nothing.

Thailand is in a serious crises that needs constructive behind the door talks with mediators that cannot be doing that in the open. Whatever one may think about Thaksin, he has the majority of the country behind himself, most of what the PAD accuses Thaksin of is true, and that needs careful negotiations and a compromise.

Can you tell me what can come out of open talks other than further aggrevating the situation?

Do you want that people start killing each other? Because that might easily happen if both sides keep doing what they do now.

[lukamar]

If he gets over 50% he'll say no one has the right to scrutinise or monitor him for another 4 years, this is Thaksin democracy, a true example of mob rule.

If he gets over 50% the will of the people of Thailand will have spoken and he will have won the election, it does not mean he will be without scrutiny or monitoring.

True mob rule is when a minority of the populace overthrow the duly elected government, a situation that has unfortunately happened before and the same tactics and players are there this time as well, stirring the pot. This has little to do with Thaksin, and all to do with power and money.

Edited March 20, 2006 by lukamar

[Jai Dee]

Jai Dee,The Nation is undoubtedly flattered you're constantly quoting their articles as opposed to The Bangkok Post, is it because you can still get the full copy of The Nation on the internet whilst The Bangkok Post is only a summary?

I expect The Nation's worried you're cutting into their subscriber base and will soon follow suit!

I think you'll find Bannork, that the majority of the news articles that I do post are bulletins issued by the Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department.

I posted this (and titled it as Editorial Opinion) because I found it an interesting read, and thought other TV members would find it interesting too.

If you have opinions of your own, or editorial opinions from other sources, please feel free to post them... this is after all, an open Forum and we do encourage discussion.

[Old Man River]

ColPyat, I very much agree with you, although the major hurdle to compromise appears to be Sondhi. His fowl language and hand gestures have angered many. This is not the Thai way. He is causing obstacles to compromise. Politics aside, the PM has done a lot of good for the Country. What has Sondhi done?

TRT insisted PAD dissolved their rally if talks went ahead, why?

Both Aphisit and the PAD have said they are willing to hold open talks with Thaksin but he insists any talks must be private.

Why? If the sale of Shin Corps to Temarak was legal with no involvement by the PM who has repeatedly said over the years he has washed his hands of the day to day running of his business to show his compliance with the laws, why does he persist in refusing to discuss the issue in public?

If I was accused of a serious offence such as selling out the country and I was innocent, I would demand an immediate debate\ discussion on TV.

His only defence is to tour the provinces saying the only test of democracy is the number of votes you can win. If he gets over 50% he'll say no one has the right to scrutinise or monitor him for another 4 years, this is Thaksin democracy, a true example of mob rule.

Thank you. Many people miss the point that a lot of the protestors were initially only asking for the check and balance mechanisms to look at the PM's actions. It was the PM who disolved parliment before a second impeachment complaint and who decided that the people's election of a new legislature should trump the check and balance mechanisms that are supposed to ensure elected leaders and representatives follow laws. Bizarre.

ColPyat has hit the nail on the head. The PM wants a private meeting since with people such as Sondhi, who is driven by a personal vendetta, an orderly, civil discussion is not likely and would only exacerbate the situation. The PAD and Opposition do not want a private meeting, as their strength comes from the protesters. We are at a serious crossroad. Nobody wants a repeat of May 1992.

[jdinasia]

Thaksin wants a closed meeting because he NEVER likes answering questions from people that are not "yes men". He's less than useless when asked direct questions about his behaviour.

If the country wants transparency they should simply demand that backroom deals end and that people have access to the full process.

[Plus]

The PM wants a private meeting since with people such as Sondhi, who is driven by a personal vendetta, an orderly, civil discussion is not likely and would only exacerbate the situation.

Do you mean Taksin is able to engage in orderly, civil discussion? The same Taksin who is quoted below?

Chamlong 'should return to caring for his stray dogs'

Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra meets supporters during an election campaign stop in Bangkok yesterday.

Premier says the PAD leader is wasting his time trying to save the country

Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra yesterday derided Chamlong Srimuang, saying he should go back to looking after his adopted dogs rather than wasting his time trying to "save the country".

In his attack, Thaksin said Chamlong, a key figure in the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD), was unable to take care of 2,000 dogs, let alone manage the country.

Thaksin attacked Chamlong and other PAD leaders as well as former opposition parties while speaking at a Thai Rak Thai Party election campaign in front of the Baiyoke Tower 2 in Bangkok's Pratunam area yesterday afternoon.

"Chamlong cannot look after 2,000 dogs on his own and has to beg food for them from other people. So how could he save the country? He'd better go back to caring for his dogs," Thaksin said.

Chamlong adopts stray dogs, mostly from Bangkok, and cares for them at his Dharma Army Foundation in Kanchanaburi.

Thaksin told the election rally that he adhered to democracy and had 377 MPs in the House. Only a small group of people, who did not adhere to democracy, had asked him to resign, he said.

Thaksin said he wanted the conflict to end as soon as possible and did not want to see any violence, which was why he dissolved the House so that the people could make a judgement.

"But this group of people will not accept the decision of the people. They think they are smarter than everyone else so they continue to rally. They even said their rally is more important than the annual Thai Red Cross fair," Thaksin said.

"But in doing so they have caused a lot of damage to the country."

Thaksin urged his supporters to teach a lesson to the protesters by turning out to vote in high numbers.

"Let the people show them that democracy belongs to all, not only to their group," Thaksin said.

"And if you want to use my services again, please vote for No 2 [his Thai Rak Thai candidacy number]," Thaksin said.

He insisted that he would not take the post of prime minister if Thai Rak Thai received less than half of the votes cast on election day.

He said if he took a break from politics as demanded by his opponents, the country would stand to lose.

"If I take a break, the 300-km electric-train project will never come to fruition because no one will invest in it. How could Chamlong or Sondhi [Limthongkul, another PAD leader] find the money for the project? What can Abhisit [Vejjajiva, Democrat leader] do?" Thaksin said.

Thaksin said the protesters in front of Government House had caused enormous traffic congestion throughout Bangkok.

"They even told those who were caught up in traffic jams not to complain. They said protesters suffered more. But I would like to say: Who the hel_l asked them to rally? Everybody wants them to go in peace," Thaksin said.

He claimed that if he failed to continue to lead the country, Thailand might have to enter a rescue programme with the International Monetary Fund again.

"If discontinuity happens or if there is a break of just two or three months, foreign reserves will flow out, and Thailand will have to enter the IMF programme again," Thaksin said.

Samatcha Hoonsara

The Nation

http://nationmultimedia.com/2006/03/20/pol...cs_20003124.php

And how can he mention IMF? He was in the government, and Tanong was a Finance Minister, just like now, when the baht was devalued and Thais were forced to beg everyone for a loan and everyone refused - China, Japan, the US. Then, under Tanong's guidance, IMF terms were negotiated so that credit lines would become open.

Could it be that the country is on a verge of another crisis and he prepares the ground to blame whoever suceeds him?

[ratcatcher]

Thaksin Shinawatra has lost all legitimacy as Prime minister of Thailand.said The Nation newspaper in one of it's editorials recently.

This is the biggest fact in this country today.

He is surrounded by "apple polishers" in his cabinet and government.

Main Entry: apple polisher

Part of Speech: noun

Definition: yes person

Synonyms: ass-kisser, bootlicker, brownnose, fawner, flatterer, flunky, groveler, lackey, lickspittle, sycophant, toady, truckler, yes man, yes woman

Sudarat Keyaraphum(a yes woman) calls the PAD and the anti Thaksin movement 'a mob'. That in itself is a serious insult to all the people who believe the man with all the money is past his "best by date".

Taking him off the commitee dealing with the future celebration of H.M. The King's 60 th anniversary and replacing him with Khum Prem is a good start.

It would have been an unneccessaryembarrassment for Thailand to have Thaksin welcoming monarchs and other dignitaries from around the world.

Thailand is at a crossroads and it's time for change. With Thaksin's removal TRT will self destruct as the rats abandon his ship of state. I sincerely hope that the April 2nd 'election' farce is abandoned and at least postponed until a more reasonable date.

The farmers and poor people of Thailand (there are poor farmers in the south too,but they don't love Thaksin) will still be looked after, H.M. will see to that I'm sure.

[Old Man River]

Plus, I agree in that both sides are publicly playing towards their crowds. There has been no improvement in the situation over the past few days. I was in Bangkok in 1992. Things could get worse.

Neither group is giving an inch. Any peaceful means with any chance of breaking this deadlock should be tried. Since public discussions aren't working, they should sit down, close the door and talk. We don't have a whole lot of options here.

[Plus]

I honestly don't know what are they going to talk about. When commenting on TRT preconditions Chamlong simply said: "We have only one condition - Taksin must resign". Like it or not but any other outcome of the meeting will not solve anything. A week ago I was waiting for the talks, but if Taksin hopes to retain his seat, there's little point.

I understand why he wants to negotiate his exit in private - he wants guarantees to his life and property but I doubt that any of the PAD leaders, and even Democrats, are interested in any backdoor deals. I also doubt they would have enough power to stop people if the cries for Taksin's blood become too loud.

[britmaveric]

Small minority who seeks to oust an elected leader who the vast majority of the people support could be considered a mob.

[jdinasia]

Definition of Mob ... from dictionary.com .... (deleted from the result is the USA slang for Mafia)

n 1: a disorderly crowd of people [syn: rabble, rout] v : press tightly together or cram; "The crowd packed the auditorium" [syn: throng, pack, pile, jam]

So far this is an orderly group of people calling for redress from what they consider abuseof power

[Old Man River]

I honestly don't know what are they going to talk about. When commenting on TRT preconditions Chamlong simply said: "We have only one condition - Taksin must resign". Like it or not but any other outcome of the meeting will not solve anything. A week ago I was waiting for the talks, but if Taksin hopes to retain his seat, there's little point.

I understand why he wants to negotiate his exit in private - he wants guarantees to his life and property but I doubt that any of the PAD leaders, and even Democrats, are interested in any backdoor deals. I also doubt they would have enough power to stop people if the cries for Taksin's blood become too loud.

Sorry, but you have this backwards. Thaksin would be negotiating from strength, not weakness. He can continue to sit back and wait and if people get tired and violence occurs, a State of Emergancy would most likely be called. Nobody wants this, hence, the hope that communication lines remain open.

[jdinasia]

Kinda disagree there OMR .... Thaksin's "strength"...??? Can't conduct business in BKK? a looming failed or postponed election?

I do agree that he has no hope if he actually had to debate in publc though ... so he may as well just skip it.

[boppia]

I think the same goes for Belarus. The leader there won the election and has a majority support. Of course there was a small mob in the city square protesting his success in the election.

I think Saddam, Fidel, and the North Korean Leader were democratically elected too. Foreigners have plans try to accuse their elections as being illegitimate. Viva Thaksin. Censor the fools protesting! They are all mad. If the people of Thailand think corruption is good, viva corruption.

Of course, I don't follow the posters who think the above, that Thaksin should stay.

I see the ways of the TRT as a giant gang-rape of Thailand. Thaksin has kept the act away from the Thai people by stuffing his sock in Thailand's mouth.

Edited March 20, 2006 by boppia

[Siripon]

Small minority who seeks to oust an elected leader who the vast majority of the people support could be considered a mob.

The PAD rallies are a joy to hear, last night there was a discussion as to the attitude of Buddhists, Christians and Muslims to paying tax,(in the light of Thaksin's avoidance) with representatives from the 3 religions.

Yesterday and today speakers talked about the rally at Jatujak and the mutual desire to solve chronic rural poverty, if the speakers at PAD could persuade the rally at Jatujak to join talks,now that would be something!

[Plus]

Thaksin would be negotiating from strength, not weakness. He can continue to sit back and wait

Yeah but in reality he has no place to sit, his party has been accused of serious election fraud with witnesses and material evidence coming forward, and 200 candidates are already disqualified, he pins his hopes on elections that everyone else ignores and that won't produce any definite result in foreseebale future, stripped of privilege to chair HM's celebrations. What strength? He's a madman bubbling something to himself. "Without me Thailand will go bankrupt in two months, without me you can't survive, I'm the one who saved all of you... blah blah blah."

[jdinasia]

lol ... if they find he was acting illegally with his company while in office ... what the sieze could possibly RUN the entire country for a few months

[asd]

Thaksin is the billionaire prime minister of the country who had amassed huge power and a large mandate, but who disappointed his people by his continuous involvement in his business dealings.

Demonstrators are gathering in Royal Square in Bangkok at this moment, calling from Prime Minister Thaksin to resign over a deal that sold off Thailand's largest telecommunications company to Temasek, corruption, mishandling a Muslim insurgency in southern Thailand, stifling the media, and allegedly allowing cronies to reap gains from state policies.

Thaksin refuses to resign, and the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) vows not to leave the streets until Thaksin is sent packing.

The problem for the opposition is that the poor countryside population doesn't care much for the government scandals going on. However, it's credit is that it is based largely in the cities which makes it infinitely easier to organize. The pro-Thaksin rallies had to bus in supporters in order to reach crowd masses the same size as the anti-Thaksin protests.

That the unions are joining in, along with the marginal middle class and even the elite, helps their cause. Especially since many of the worker unions are for employees of state-held companies.

The possibility of confrontation between pro-Thaksin and anti-Thaksin groups is also possible given the history of Thailand's people power coups.

I know they are trying to accumulate weapons of mass destruction.

Here's my proof !!!

Beautiful Girls with Guns

Oh we could be in poverty

No one to lend a helping hand

But it's alright, alright I know

Because you'll always understand

I don't care any place, anywhere

Just as long as you are there, baby baby

You drown me with your love

Kill me with your guns

Bang, bang baby

I think the confrontation between anti-government and pro-government will occur after the election held on April 2,2006.

Join in the fun and be prepared to get wet ? Very WET !

Thailand's most celebrated festival is the Songkran Festival.Songkran, regarded as Thai traditional New Year, has been an exotic Thai tradition for generations.

Beautiful breasts in her wet shirt

The Thai people celebrate this festival with water. Everyone gets soaking wet and since it is the hottest season of the year, the custom is quite refreshing. Songkran is a Public Spring Cleaning Day, supported by the religious belief that anything old and useless must be thrown away or it will bring bad luck to the owner.

Girls on the sunny season.

Thais and Farangs like this festival.

Policeman concerned about confrontation between anti-government and pro-government.

[lukamar]

Definition of Mob ... from dictionary.com .... (deleted from the result is the USA slang for Mafia)

n 1: a disorderly crowd of people [syn: rabble, rout] v : press tightly together or cram; "The crowd packed the auditorium" [syn: throng, pack, pile, jam]

You forgot to put all the definition in your post some of which do apply.

2:- The mass of common people; the populace.

3:-Informal.

a:- An organized gang of criminals; a crime syndicate.

b:- often Mob Organized crime.

4:-An indiscriminate or loosely associated group of persons or things.

From Merriam-Webster Online Dictionary

1 : a large or disorderly crowd; especially : one bent on riotous or destructive action

2 : the lower classes of a community : MASSES, RABBLE

3: chiefly Australian : a flock, drove, or herd of animals

4 : a criminal set : GANG; especially often capitalized : MAFIA 1

5: chiefly British : a group of people : CROWD

From what I see in both dictionaries the rally could quite easily be described as a mob. They are just a mass of common people or an indiscriminate or loosely associated group of persons with the odd organized gang of criminals or mafia types thrown in.