What Exactly Will Happen In 2015, When Asean Comes Into Effect?

[MaaTini]

I try to figure out, what will happen socially and economically with all Member States of ASEAN,

when it comes into effect in 2015...

Will there be really a free float of Goods, Services and so on through all Borders for all Citizen and Companies of Members States?

[theblether]

What a question you have asked there.....without going too far into it I do know that many Thais are worried about the influx of labour causing serious problems for the feckless young.

I also know Thai businessmen that can't wait as they are fed up being let down by the same feckless young.

[wellred]

Maybe a generation of wake up calls is what's needed to get their act together.

[jaideeguy]

They are now in a deep sleep now and far from waking up to the realities of 2015. Seems the English language program is crumbling and Thai corporations are getting a stronger stranglehold on the market.

Might be fun to watch .....or time to flee?

[Ricardo]

I predict a tsunami of evasions, special-cases, excuses, requirements-to-speak/read/write-Thai, 'no have' explanations, and total shock when other ASEAN countries expect them to follow the rules.

[lovelaos]

Nothing will change overnight. Things will just trickle on as normal.

[theblether]

I don't agree with nothing happening overnight, I expect to see a massive labour influx the same as we saw when Poland joined the EU.

Hopefully we'll get some decent plumbers and electricians out of it.

That would be good.

[Scully]

I don't agree with nothing happening overnight, I expect to see a massive labour influx the same as we saw when Poland joined the EU.

Hopefully we'll get some decent plumbers and electricians out of it.

That would be good.

This is how I see and hear it, Filipino English teachers, Laos builders etc etc. Just a general influx of cheap labour.

A bad idea for Thaiand in my book, it's growing fast enough already.

[Payboy]

What Exactly Will Happen In 2015, When Asean Comes Into Effect?

Backpedaling, obfuscating, twisting interpretation of every MOU, etc.

[keemapoot]

I don't agree with nothing happening overnight, I expect to see a massive labour influx the same as we saw when Poland joined the EU.

Hopefully we'll get some decent plumbers and electricians out of it.

That would be good.

Unlikely. Thailand will find a way to restrict in key occupations, even though subtle, such as (must speak Thai) language requirements.

[theblether]

It may be a bad idea for the feckless Thais, but it will be a good idea for everyone else.

Standards should be driven up across many fields.

The downside is it will play into the hands of Thai nationalists, we could end up seeing some genuine social unrest as the Thais start to lose jobs to the new wave.

Dare I say? Thai National Front?

[theblether]

I don't agree with nothing happening overnight, I expect to see a massive labour influx the same as we saw when Poland joined the EU.

Hopefully we'll get some decent plumbers and electricians out of it.

That would be good.

Unlikely. Thailand will find a way to restrict in key occupations, even though subtle, such as (must speak Thai) language requirements.

I have a hunch the rest of ASEAN are aware of that Thai tendency, the Thais could be in for a shock if they try some funny stuff.

I'll need to study the ASEAN Treaty before commenting on the specifics though.

[keemapoot]

I don't agree with nothing happening overnight, I expect to see a massive labour influx the same as we saw when Poland joined the EU.

Hopefully we'll get some decent plumbers and electricians out of it.

That would be good.

Unlikely. Thailand will find a way to restrict in key occupations, even though subtle, such as (must speak Thai) language requirements.

I have a hunch the rest of ASEAN are aware of that Thai tendency, the Thais could be in for a shock if they try some funny stuff.

I'll need to study the ASEAN Treaty before commenting on the specifics though.

Not blaming Thailand, as I assume the others will play games too. This will not be like the EU experience....

[nontabury]

Nothing will change overnight. Things will just trickle on as normal.

Most likely, Thai's don't like competition,they will try to create barriers, such as a requirement to speak and read Thai or stating

That the other countries qualification are not up to the Thai ones, ridiculous I know. A couple of years ago there was a ASEAN

Agreement to relax boarder controls, what happened?, example they created obstacles for certain products such as beer Loa.

One point of the agreement I'm not sure of, will citizens of the other ASEAN countries be allowed to own land in Thailand, I think I know what the answer will be, perhaps someone can confirm.

[nontabury]

I don't agree with nothing happening overnight, I expect to see a massive labour influx the same as we saw when Poland joined the EU.

Hopefully we'll get some decent plumbers and electricians out of it.

That would be good.

Unlikely. Thailand will find a way to restrict in key occupations, even though subtle, such as (must speak Thai) language requirements.

I have a hunch the rest of ASEAN are aware of that Thai tendency, the Thais could be in for a shock if they try some funny stuff.

I'll need to study the ASEAN Treaty before commenting on the specifics though.

Not blaming Thailand, as I assume the others will play games too. This will not be like the EU experience....

Are you saying that all the EU counties are playing to the same rules?.

[theblether]

There is an ASEAN website in the English language, if you google it you can get up to date info.

I'll have a look when I get back to my laptop.I fear the old "devil is in the detail " line will cause some unexpected problems for Thailand.

[keemapoot]

I don't agree with nothing happening overnight, I expect to see a massive labour influx the same as we saw when Poland joined the EU.

Hopefully we'll get some decent plumbers and electricians out of it.

That would be good.

Unlikely. Thailand will find a way to restrict in key occupations, even though subtle, such as (must speak Thai) language requirements.

I have a hunch the rest of ASEAN are aware of that Thai tendency, the Thais could be in for a shock if they try some funny stuff.

I'll need to study the ASEAN Treaty before commenting on the specifics though.

Not blaming Thailand, as I assume the others will play games too. This will not be like the EU experience....

Are you saying that all the EU counties are playing to the same rules?.

Good point. But, I think my point is that the gaps are wider in Asean, and so I'm contending Asean 2015 will be a big dud for many years.

[CaptHaddock]

I don't agree with nothing happening overnight, I expect to see a massive labour influx the same as we saw when Poland joined the EU.

Hopefully we'll get some decent plumbers and electricians out of it.

That would be good.

It won't be like the EU.

The AEC Blueprint allows for the free flow of skilled labor only, not unskilled or semi-skilled. As far as I can see, that means professional level, with prior experience requirements that preclude recent graduates. There is also a provision for manpower companies to supply services across borders that might include the building trades, but I haven't seen that cited as an example.

[CiaranO]

2015.......ASEAN......will never happen, it may come into effect by word only but not by any action.

[MaaTini]

viewing that website could bring more clarity

http://www.asean.org/

[CiaranO]

even better

http://www.phuketgazette.net/thailandnews/2013/Thailand-News-ASEAN-begins-to-row-back-on-AEC-deadline-quietly-20885.html

[the wanderer]

If the E.u is anything to go ny ,it will bea disaster only benifiting those at the top who run it. but for the man in the street ,well go figure.

[Phronesis]

Nothing. It will be exactly the same as the Y2K bug. Lots of hype but nothing will change.

[manhattan55]

"...when it comes into effect in 2015..."

The start date of AEC will be December 31, 2015, so practically speaking it will be 2016.

[seasia]

I don't agree with nothing happening overnight, I expect to see a massive labour influx the same as we saw when Poland joined the EU.

Hopefully we'll get some decent plumbers and electricians out of it.

That would be good.

I agree with the nothing happening overnight bit.

One of the Asean leaders has already commented on stumbling blocks to approaching 2015.

Protectionism at play.

Unless of course it suits those who really hold power.

Time will tell.

[brewsterbudgen]

More Lao, Cambodian, Vietnamese and Burmese bargirls.

[wellred]

2015.......ASEAN......will never happen, it may come into effect by word only but not by any action.

Interesting comment. Day for example we see the Thais resorting to unsavoury tactics to keep others away from jobs do the rest of the AEC have any recourse to 'kick off' for want of a better term?

[Travel2003]

I don't agree with nothing happening overnight, I expect to see a massive labour influx the same as we saw when Poland joined the EU.

Hopefully we'll get some decent plumbers and electricians out of it.

That would be good.

It won't be like the EU.

The AEC Blueprint allows for the free flow of skilled labor only, not unskilled or semi-skilled. As far as I can see, that means professional level, with prior experience requirements that preclude recent graduates. There is also a provision for manpower companies to supply services across borders that might include the building trades, but I haven't seen that cited as an example.

So cheap English teachers and private hospital nurses from Philippines.

Especially nurses. Lots and lots of them in Philippines.

Edited April 27, 2013 by Travel2003

[CaptHaddock]

I don't agree with nothing happening overnight, I expect to see a massive labour influx the same as we saw when Poland joined the EU.

Hopefully we'll get some decent plumbers and electricians out of it.

That would be good.

It won't be like the EU.

The AEC Blueprint allows for the free flow of skilled labor only, not unskilled or semi-skilled. As far as I can see, that means professional level, with prior experience requirements that preclude recent graduates. There is also a provision for manpower companies to supply services across borders that might include the building trades, but I haven't seen that cited as an example.

So cheap English teachers and private hospital nurses from Philippines.

Especially nurses. Lots and lots of them in Philippines.

Thailand needs both English teaches and nurses. Filipinos compare favorably with Thais as teachers of English, in general. Thailand is not able to attract many of the most qualified now as it is.

[Ricardo]

"...when it comes into effect in 2015..."

The start date of AEC will be December 31, 2015, so practically speaking it will be 2016.

IIRC the original start-date was put back, by 364 days, some months ago.

But is still technically within 2015, so face is saved all round, phew !

This gives an excellent example of just how well things will go, with the introduction of the new rules.