Thailand's Booming Banks Wary Of Credit Bubble

[detinu68]

In your own words, Thailand has a lot of catching up to do to match the median income of US citizens. The US has hundreds of "tent cities" where poor people live.

And at the same time, the US has a lot of catching up to do with other nations including minnows like Luxembourg, Hong Kong, Norway, Bermuda and The Falkland Islands.

If America is so rich, why does it not take care of its poor and vulnerable citizens?

Asia is catching up fast with the West.

And Thailand has seen and learned from the mistakes made in the US and elsewhere..

I just hope that it's future wealth and income distribution is managed better than in the US.

This isn't about US bashing - again and again. That won't get you any debate points about Thailand.

I can always tell when someone knows he losing a debate, because he goes off topic and starts attacking other people.

Now, what do you think about my points I made about the two belly up Thai banks, the exports dropping, the mountain of building debt, the over built housing market, banks having 40% of their money tied up in real estate loans, the rice export business in collapse (brought to you by the same government that manages the banks and the whole economy) the new minimum wage, the high baht hurting exports, the burgeoning consumer debt, and so on?

Can you please address those without making unrelated attacks?

My answer to you, point for point.

“2 Thai banks”: State owned. Safe. Background

noise. Insignificant. The rest of the commercial banking sector in

Thailand is booming.

“Exports dropping”: False. Exports rising.

Check the figures.

“The mountain of building debt, the over built

housing market, banks having 40% of their money tied up in real

estate loans”: You need to quantify “mountain”. Credit secured

on real estate is normal. Just because there was a bubble in the US,

that burst so spectacularly doesn't mean it will happen in Thailand.

Real estate prices are low in Thailand, There is no bubble comparable

to the US in 2006/07.

“The rice export business in collapse”: Even

if it is, rice exports are peanuts in relation to Thailands's other

exports and service industries, less than 5%.

“The new minimum wage”: Yes? What? Fantastic

for internal consumption, a boost to the economy. Minimum wage

legislation has worked all over the world. Fantastic. What's your

point? Do you want to race to the bottom? Then head to Bangladesh.

“The high baht hurting exports”: That's been

caused by global markets. The excellent economic fundamentals in

Thailand, favourable interest rates and safe Thai government bonds

have attracted investment. A ll in all I think a good thing. And

imports are cheaper now, helping to keep a lid on inflation.

Generally good for Thailand.

“The burgeoning consumer debt”: Get real.

Every successful economy has huge consumer debt. It's a sign of

success. The debt is secured on assets., like everywhere else in the

world.

Edited April 27, 2013 by detinu68

[NeverSure]

In your own words, Thailand has a lot of catching up to do to match the median income of US citizens. The US has hundreds of "tent cities" where poor people live.

And at the same time, the US has a lot of catching up to do with other nations including minnows like Luxembourg, Hong Kong, Norway, Bermuda and The Falkland Islands.

If America is so rich, why does it not take care of its poor and vulnerable citizens?

Asia is catching up fast with the West.

And Thailand has seen and learned from the mistakes made in the US and elsewhere..

I just hope that it's future wealth and income distribution is managed better than in the US.

This isn't about US bashing - again and again. That won't get you any debate points about Thailand.

I can always tell when someone knows he losing a debate, because he goes off topic and starts attacking other people.

Now, what do you think about my points I made about the two belly up Thai banks, the exports dropping, the mountain of building debt, the over built housing market, banks having 40% of their money tied up in real estate loans, the rice export business in collapse (brought to you by the same government that manages the banks and the whole economy) the new minimum wage, the high baht hurting exports, the burgeoning consumer debt, and so on?

Can you please address those without making unrelated attacks?

My answer to you, point for point.

“2 Thai banks”: State owned. Safe. Background

noise. Insignificant. The rest of the commercial banking sector in

Thailand is booming.

“Exports dropping”: False. Exports rising.

Check the figures.

“The mountain of building debt, the over built

housing market, banks having 40% of their money tied up in real

estate loans”: You need to quantify “mountain”. Credit secured

on real estate is normal. Just because there was a bubble in the US,

that burst so spectacularly doesn't mean it will happen in Thailand.

Real estate prices are low in Thailand, There is no bubble comparable

to the US in 2006/07.

“The rice export business in collapse”: Even

if it is, rice exports are peanuts in relation to Thailands's other

exports and service industries, less than 5%.

“The new minimum wage”: Yes? What? Fantastic

for internal consumption, a boost to the economy. Minimum wage

legislation has worked all over the world. Fantastic. What's your

point? Do you want to race to the bottom? Then head to Bangladesh.

“The high baht hurting exports”: That's been

caused by global markets. The excellent economic fundamentals in

Thailand, favourable interest rates and safe Thai government bonds

have attracted investment. A ll in all I think a good thing. And

imports are cheaper now, helping to keep a lid on inflation.

Generally good for Thailand.

“The burgeoning consumer debt”: Get real.

Every successful economy has huge consumer debt. It's a sign of

success. The debt is secured on assets., lile everywhere else in the

world.

OK, live in your world. We'll discuss this again in a couple of years. You were warned.

[detinu68]

In your own words, Thailand has a lot of catching up to do to match the median income of US citizens. The US has hundreds of "tent cities" where poor people live.

And at the same time, the US has a lot of catching up to do with other nations including minnows like Luxembourg, Hong Kong, Norway, Bermuda and The Falkland Islands.

If America is so rich, why does it not take care of its poor and vulnerable citizens?

Asia is catching up fast with the West.

And Thailand has seen and learned from the mistakes made in the US and elsewhere..

I just hope that it's future wealth and income distribution is managed better than in the US.

This isn't about US bashing - again and again. That won't get you any debate points about Thailand.

I can always tell when someone knows he losing a debate, because he goes off topic and starts attacking other people.

Now, what do you think about my points I made about the two belly up Thai banks, the exports dropping, the mountain of building debt, the over built housing market, banks having 40% of their money tied up in real estate loans, the rice export business in collapse (brought to you by the same government that manages the banks and the whole economy) the new minimum wage, the high baht hurting exports, the burgeoning consumer debt, and so on?

Can you please address those without making unrelated attacks?

My answer to you, point for point.

“2 Thai banks”: State owned. Safe. Background

noise. Insignificant. The rest of the commercial banking sector in

Thailand is booming.

“Exports dropping”: False. Exports rising.

Check the figures.

“The mountain of building debt, the over built

housing market, banks having 40% of their money tied up in real

estate loans”: You need to quantify “mountain”. Credit secured

on real estate is normal. Just because there was a bubble in the US,

that burst so spectacularly doesn't mean it will happen in Thailand.

Real estate prices are low in Thailand, There is no bubble comparable

to the US in 2006/07.

“The rice export business in collapse”: Even

if it is, rice exports are peanuts in relation to Thailands's other

exports and service industries, less than 5%.

“The new minimum wage”: Yes? What? Fantastic

for internal consumption, a boost to the economy. Minimum wage

legislation has worked all over the world. Fantastic. What's your

point? Do you want to race to the bottom? Then head to Bangladesh.

“The high baht hurting exports”: That's been

caused by global markets. The excellent economic fundamentals in

Thailand, favourable interest rates and safe Thai government bonds

have attracted investment. A ll in all I think a good thing. And

imports are cheaper now, helping to keep a lid on inflation.

Generally good for Thailand.

“The burgeoning consumer debt”: Get real.

Every successful economy has huge consumer debt. It's a sign of

success. The debt is secured on assets., lile everywhere else in the

world.

OK, live in your world. We'll discuss this again in a couple of years. You were warned.

In fact, you live in our world.

The reality, is here and now.

What you may wish for, or predict in a couple years' time is of interest only to yourself.

[Naam]

Neversure:

How can you say that Thai Banks "are going to need Thai government bailouts"?

Do you have a crystal ball?

Thai banks are in rude good health. Good luck to them.

What you say is utter nonsense.

Just because the US used socialist style policies to save GM and other companies doesn't mean that Thailand will have to do the same for its industries (the "socialist" policy worked really well for GM by the way).

Back then, and right now, Thai industry does not need taxpayer's help.

Thailand's doing OK thanks.

NeverSure is right and it is evident that two (not some) "dwarf" banks need a bail-out, i.e. capital infusion. however, his claim "tip of the iceberg" is presently an assumption. worthwhile to mention is the fact that both banks are state owned and that explains in my [not so] humble view why the banks are in trouble.

[NeverSure]

Neversure:

How can you say that Thai Banks "are going to need Thai government bailouts"?

Do you have a crystal ball?

Thai banks are in rude good health. Good luck to them.

What you say is utter nonsense.

Just because the US used socialist style policies to save GM and other companies doesn't mean that Thailand will have to do the same for its industries (the "socialist" policy worked really well for GM by the way).

Back then, and right now, Thai industry does not need taxpayer's help.

Thailand's doing OK thanks.

NeverSure is right and it is evident that two (not some) "dwarf" banks need a bail-out, i.e. capital infusion. however, his claim "tip of the iceberg" is presently an assumption. worthwhile to mention is the fact that both banks are state owned and that explains in my [not so] humble view why the banks are in trouble.

Mr. Naam. I found the article that first worried this old bank auditor almost 4 years ago. In July of 2009, Thailand State owned banks had set a target of doubling their loans by year end to 1.25 tril baht. The only way I know to do that without buying foreign investments, is in real estate.

I began to believe that too much money "forced" on the real estate market would overheat it. I had just seen that in my home country when Freddie/Fannie ordered lenders to lend. The goals, as in Thailand were to make housing affordable, to provide plenty of it for everyone, and to also boost the economy. I lived through the resulting disaster.

When, just a couple of years later I saw this, I began to worry. Now I'm seeing my worries justified and will continue to see that, I truly believe.

I posted a link the other day showing that all Thai banks, not just government owned, have 40% (on average) of their assets in Thai real estate loans. That to me is a financial atomic bomb.

Please glance at this. Link

[wooloomooloo]

I posted a link the other day showing that all Thai banks, not just government owned, have 40% (on average) of their assets in Thai real estate loans. That to me is a financial atomic bomb.

What else have Thai banks got to invest in domestically? What is the gross domestic product that's worth any long-term investment? Not a lot.

Does anyone see the similarity - Iceland and Thailand?

[NeverSure]

I posted a link the other day showing that all Thai banks, not just government owned, have 40% (on average) of their assets in Thai real estate loans. That to me is a financial atomic bomb.

What else have Thai banks got to invest in domestically? What is the gross domestic product that's worth any long-term investment? Not a lot.

Does anyone see the similarity - Iceland and Thailand?

I read both lines, and can't tell what point you're making.

40% is kind of like having all of your eggs in one basket. It's not wise. Also, there is overbuilding, which is intuitively obvious to even the most casual observer. These real estate loans could turn those banks upside down almost overnight.

Iceland? It went bankrupt, right? And it's a tiny economy, but with much wealthier people. I believe its GDP per capita is several multiples of Thailand's?

Additionally, Thailand is running deficits. People talk about the prosperity in Thailand, but why then is it running deficits? Why did it have so much trouble finding the money to fund the rice scheme? How is it going to fund the rice scheme into the future?

Where is it going to get any money to bail out any banks? The answer of course is the same as last time. It will have to turn to the IMF on bended knee.

I'm really serious. Thailand isn't what a lot of people seem to think it is. It's on a bubble. A credit bubble.

[chiang mai]

In your own words, Thailand has a lot of catching up to do to match the median income of US citizens. The US has hundreds of "tent cities" where poor people live.

And at the same time, the US has a lot of catching up to do with other nations including minnows like Luxembourg, Hong Kong, Norway, Bermuda and The Falkland Islands.

If America is so rich, why does it not take care of its poor and vulnerable citizens?

Asia is catching up fast with the West.

And Thailand has seen and learned from the mistakes made in the US and elsewhere..

I just hope that it's future wealth and income distribution is managed better than in the US.

This isn't about US bashing - again and again. That won't get you any debate points about Thailand.

I can always tell when someone knows he losing a debate, because he goes off topic and starts attacking other people.

Now, what do you think about my points I made about the two belly up Thai banks, the exports dropping, the mountain of building debt, the over built housing market, banks having 40% of their money tied up in real estate loans, the rice export business in collapse (brought to you by the same government that manages the banks and the whole economy) the new minimum wage, the high baht hurting exports, the burgeoning consumer debt, and so on?

Can you please address those without making unrelated attacks?

My answer to you, point for point.

“2 Thai banks”: State owned. Safe. Background

noise. Insignificant. The rest of the commercial banking sector in

Thailand is booming.

“Exports dropping”: False. Exports rising.

Check the figures.

“The mountain of building debt, the over built

housing market, banks having 40% of their money tied up in real

estate loans”: You need to quantify “mountain”. Credit secured

on real estate is normal. Just because there was a bubble in the US,

that burst so spectacularly doesn't mean it will happen in Thailand.

Real estate prices are low in Thailand, There is no bubble comparable

to the US in 2006/07.

“The rice export business in collapse”: Even

if it is, rice exports are peanuts in relation to Thailands's other

exports and service industries, less than 5%.

“The new minimum wage”: Yes? What? Fantastic

for internal consumption, a boost to the economy. Minimum wage

legislation has worked all over the world. Fantastic. What's your

point? Do you want to race to the bottom? Then head to Bangladesh.

“The high baht hurting exports”: That's been

caused by global markets. The excellent economic fundamentals in

Thailand, favourable interest rates and safe Thai government bonds

have attracted investment. A ll in all I think a good thing. And

imports are cheaper now, helping to keep a lid on inflation.

Generally good for Thailand.

“The burgeoning consumer debt”: Get real.

Every successful economy has huge consumer debt. It's a sign of

success. The debt is secured on assets., like everywhere else in the

world.

All these points have been argued and proof of counter arguments supplied, in another thread, I haven't checked but I'm certain there must be a whole bunch of threads where NS has repeatedly made these claims about the Thai economy only to be shot down by other posters. But he doesn't listen and providing links and/or stats for him to read are of no use, he just keeps comming back in a different thread with the same old stories that have been refuted so many times previously. It's very sad actually because there will be posters who will buy what he's saying and will make bad decisions in their lives as a result, in that respect he's being hugely irresponsible, but he's on a mission so be prerared to have any evidence/argument you present, firmly ignored.

[Naam]

I posted a link the other day showing that all Thai banks, not just government owned, have 40% (on average) of their assets in Thai real estate loans. That to me is a financial atomic bomb.

What else have Thai banks got to invest in domestically? What is the gross domestic product that's worth any long-term investment? Not a lot.

Does anyone see the similarity - Iceland and Thailand?

there are indeed parallels. big suburbs of BKK have more inhabitants than Iceland

[NeverSure]

In your own words, Thailand has a lot of catching up to do to match the median income of US citizens. The US has hundreds of "tent cities" where poor people live.

And at the same time, the US has a lot of catching up to do with other nations including minnows like Luxembourg, Hong Kong, Norway, Bermuda and The Falkland Islands.

If America is so rich, why does it not take care of its poor and vulnerable citizens?

Asia is catching up fast with the West.

And Thailand has seen and learned from the mistakes made in the US and elsewhere..

I just hope that it's future wealth and income distribution is managed better than in the US.

This isn't about US bashing - again and again. That won't get you any debate points about Thailand.

I can always tell when someone knows he losing a debate, because he goes off topic and starts attacking other people.

Now, what do you think about my points I made about the two belly up Thai banks, the exports dropping, the mountain of building debt, the over built housing market, banks having 40% of their money tied up in real estate loans, the rice export business in collapse (brought to you by the same government that manages the banks and the whole economy) the new minimum wage, the high baht hurting exports, the burgeoning consumer debt, and so on?

Can you please address those without making unrelated attacks?

My answer to you, point for point.

“2 Thai banks”: State owned. Safe. Background

noise. Insignificant. The rest of the commercial banking sector in

Thailand is booming.

“Exports dropping”: False. Exports rising.

Check the figures.

“The mountain of building debt, the over built

housing market, banks having 40% of their money tied up in real

estate loans”: You need to quantify “mountain”. Credit secured

on real estate is normal. Just because there was a bubble in the US,

that burst so spectacularly doesn't mean it will happen in Thailand.

Real estate prices are low in Thailand, There is no bubble comparable

to the US in 2006/07.

“The rice export business in collapse”: Even

if it is, rice exports are peanuts in relation to Thailands's other

exports and service industries, less than 5%.

“The new minimum wage”: Yes? What? Fantastic

for internal consumption, a boost to the economy. Minimum wage

legislation has worked all over the world. Fantastic. What's your

point? Do you want to race to the bottom? Then head to Bangladesh.

“The high baht hurting exports”: That's been

caused by global markets. The excellent economic fundamentals in

Thailand, favourable interest rates and safe Thai government bonds

have attracted investment. A ll in all I think a good thing. And

imports are cheaper now, helping to keep a lid on inflation.

Generally good for Thailand.

“The burgeoning consumer debt”: Get real.

Every successful economy has huge consumer debt. It's a sign of

success. The debt is secured on assets., like everywhere else in the

world.

All these points have been argued and proof of counter arguments supplied, in another thread, I haven't checked but I'm certain there must be a whole bunch of threads where NS has repeatedly made these claims about the Thai economy only to be shot down by other posters. But he doesn't listen and providing links and/or stats for him to read are of no use, he just keeps comming back in a different thread with the same old stories that have been refuted so many times previously. It's very sad actually because there will be posters who will buy what he's saying and will make bad decisions in their lives as a result, in that respect he's being hugely irresponsible, but he's on a mission so be prerared to have any evidence/argument you present, firmly ignored.

Sir, I have not been "shot down." You haven't posted one credible link or even made one credible argument on the subject. As usual, losers attack the messenger because that's all they have left.

I have been posting links. We have read about Thailand's concern about a real estate bubble. We have read that Thai banks have 40% of their loans in real estate. On paper they are making lots of money, but I'll bet none of you even knows what the accrual system of accounting is. DO YOU?

No you don't, so you haven't calculated how fast that can go upside down along with the fractional reserve system they also use.

Banks that were making lots of money and very solvent yesterday are in the paper today needing a bailout.

Thailand is running serious deficits. It could barely find the money to pay for the rice scheme. It had to borrow it. It sure doesn't have the money to start bailing out banks.

The loans are secured by collateral worth more than the loans, and real estate is cheap in Thailand, says a poster above. Well, real estate isn't cheap enough to stop having massive empty units. The market will decide what's cheap enough. The loans that are secured by that cheap real estate will collapse if the payments aren't made on those vast empty units.

I could go on, but your insults at a person rather than any real debate leave you looking like exactly what you are.

[chiang mai]

I posted a link the other day showing that all Thai banks, not just government owned, have 40% (on average) of their assets in Thai real estate loans. That to me is a financial atomic bomb.

What else have Thai banks got to invest in domestically? What is the gross domestic product that's worth any long-term investment? Not a lot.

Does anyone see the similarity - Iceland and Thailand?

I read both lines, and can't tell what point you're making.

40% is kind of like having all of your eggs in one basket. It's not wise. Also, there is overbuilding, which is intuitively obvious to even the most casual observer. These real estate loans could turn those banks upside down almost overnight.

Iceland? It went bankrupt, right? And it's a tiny economy, but with much wealthier people. I believe its GDP per capita is several multiples of Thailand's?

Additionally, Thailand is running deficits. People talk about the prosperity in Thailand, but why then is it running deficits? Why did it have so much trouble finding the money to fund the rice scheme? How is it going to fund the rice scheme into the future?

Where is it going to get any money to bail out any banks? The answer of course is the same as last time. It will have to turn to the IMF on bended knee.

I'm really serious. Thailand isn't what a lot of people seem to think it is. It's on a bubble. A credit bubble.

More absolute sh*te on the same subject, Iceland's GDP in 2011 was $14 bill, Thailand was $360 bill!

Edited April 27, 2013 by chiang mai

[chiang mai]

In your own words, Thailand has a lot of catching up to do to match the median income of US citizens. The US has hundreds of "tent cities" where poor people live.

And at the same time, the US has a lot of catching up to do with other nations including minnows like Luxembourg, Hong Kong, Norway, Bermuda and The Falkland Islands.

If America is so rich, why does it not take care of its poor and vulnerable citizens?

Asia is catching up fast with the West.

And Thailand has seen and learned from the mistakes made in the US and elsewhere..

I just hope that it's future wealth and income distribution is managed better than in the US.

This isn't about US bashing - again and again. That won't get you any debate points about Thailand.

I can always tell when someone knows he losing a debate, because he goes off topic and starts attacking other people.

Now, what do you think about my points I made about the two belly up Thai banks, the exports dropping, the mountain of building debt, the over built housing market, banks having 40% of their money tied up in real estate loans, the rice export business in collapse (brought to you by the same government that manages the banks and the whole economy) the new minimum wage, the high baht hurting exports, the burgeoning consumer debt, and so on?

Can you please address those without making unrelated attacks?

My answer to you, point for point.

“2 Thai banks”: State owned. Safe. Background

noise. Insignificant. The rest of the commercial banking sector in

Thailand is booming.

“Exports dropping”: False. Exports rising.

Check the figures.

“The mountain of building debt, the over built

housing market, banks having 40% of their money tied up in real

estate loans”: You need to quantify “mountain”. Credit secured

on real estate is normal. Just because there was a bubble in the US,

that burst so spectacularly doesn't mean it will happen in Thailand.

Real estate prices are low in Thailand, There is no bubble comparable

to the US in 2006/07.

“The rice export business in collapse”: Even

if it is, rice exports are peanuts in relation to Thailands's other

exports and service industries, less than 5%.

“The new minimum wage”: Yes? What? Fantastic

for internal consumption, a boost to the economy. Minimum wage

legislation has worked all over the world. Fantastic. What's your

point? Do you want to race to the bottom? Then head to Bangladesh.

“The high baht hurting exports”: That's been

caused by global markets. The excellent economic fundamentals in

Thailand, favourable interest rates and safe Thai government bonds

have attracted investment. A ll in all I think a good thing. And

imports are cheaper now, helping to keep a lid on inflation.

Generally good for Thailand.

“The burgeoning consumer debt”: Get real.

Every successful economy has huge consumer debt. It's a sign of

success. The debt is secured on assets., like everywhere else in the

world.

All these points have been argued and proof of counter arguments supplied, in another thread, I haven't checked but I'm certain there must be a whole bunch of threads where NS has repeatedly made these claims about the Thai economy only to be shot down by other posters. But he doesn't listen and providing links and/or stats for him to read are of no use, he just keeps comming back in a different thread with the same old stories that have been refuted so many times previously. It's very sad actually because there will be posters who will buy what he's saying and will make bad decisions in their lives as a result, in that respect he's being hugely irresponsible, but he's on a mission so be prerared to have any evidence/argument you present, firmly ignored.

Sir, I have not been "shot down." You haven't posted one credible link or even made one credible argument on the subject. As usual, losers attack the messenger because that's all they have left.

I have been posting links. We have read about Thailand's concern about a real estate bubble. We have read that Thai banks have 40% of their loans in real estate. On paper they are making lots of money, but I'll bet none of you even knows what the accrual system of accounting is. DO YOU?

No you don't, so you haven't calculated how fast that can go upside down along with the fractional reserve system they also use.

Banks that were making lots of money and very solvent yesterday are in the paper today needing a bailout.

Thailand is running serious deficits. It could barely find the money to pay for the rice scheme. It had to borrow it. It sure doesn't have the money to start bailing out banks.

The loans are secured by collateral worth more than the loans, and real estate is cheap in Thailand, says a poster above. Well, real estate isn't cheap enough to stop having massive empty units. The market will decide what's cheap enough. The loans that are secured by that cheap real estate will collapse if the payments aren't made on those vast empty units.

I could go on, but your insults at a person rather than any real debate leave you looking like exactly what you are.

The facts are NS that you spout things that you say are facts when they are not even close and when these things are pointed out to you you simple start all over again with the same rubbish in a different thread, all you are trying to do is to trash Thailand and it's irresponsible.

Credible arguments from previous threads,:

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/635107-thai-baht-tempers-rise-over-b-o-t-rate-policy/page-2

[NeverSure]

I posted a link the other day showing that all Thai banks, not just government owned, have 40% (on average) of their assets in Thai real estate loans. That to me is a financial atomic bomb.

What else have Thai banks got to invest in domestically? What is the gross domestic product that's worth any long-term investment? Not a lot.

Does anyone see the similarity - Iceland and Thailand?

I read both lines, and can't tell what point you're making.

40% is kind of like having all of your eggs in one basket. It's not wise. Also, there is overbuilding, which is intuitively obvious to even the most casual observer. These real estate loans could turn those banks upside down almost overnight.

Iceland? It went bankrupt, right? And it's a tiny economy, but with much wealthier people. I believe its GDP per capita is several multiples of Thailand's?

Additionally, Thailand is running deficits. People talk about the prosperity in Thailand, but why then is it running deficits? Why did it have so much trouble finding the money to fund the rice scheme? How is it going to fund the rice scheme into the future?

Where is it going to get any money to bail out any banks? The answer of course is the same as last time. It will have to turn to the IMF on bended knee.

I'm really serious. Thailand isn't what a lot of people seem to think it is. It's on a bubble. A credit bubble.

More absolute sh*te on the same subject, Iceland's GDP in 2011 was $14 bill, Thailand was $360 bill!

The bigger you are, the harder you fall. Few of the most brilliant minds thought the US was going to crash due in large part to a real estate bubble and loans made against real estate, but it did.

Where were all of the voices? They were mute because they didn't believe it. Real estate was the best investment you can make because it always goes up, right? The stock market is great so better buy, right?

It caught not only the "smart" bankers, but Wall Street and main street, and even overseas governments and banks who had bought those real estate derivatives.

Most everything seemed great until all of a sudden one day President Bush appeared at the White House with the chairman of the Federal Reserve Board and they made the shocking announcement that the government was going to have to put up an emergency $700 billion to save the banks and Wall Street.

Hey, they didn't send everyone a memo first. It was just there.

But I bailed out almost three years earlier and sat back saying "I told you so."

[NeverSure]

chiang mai

The facts are NS that you spout things that you say are facts when they
are not even close and when these things are pointed out to you you
simple start all over again with the same rubbish in a different thread,
all you are trying to do is to trash Thailand and it's irresponsible.

"Credible arguments from previous threads,:

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/635107-thai-baht-tempers-rise-over-b-o-t-rate-policy/page-2"

I haven't seen any credible arguments, especially not from you.

If you want to engage the debate, make your points. I don't think you know enough to engage.

Edited April 28, 2013 by NeverSure

[chiang mai]

chiang mai

The facts are NS that you spout things that you say are facts when they

are not even close and when these things are pointed out to you you

simple start all over again with the same rubbish in a different thread,

all you are trying to do is to trash Thailand and it's irresponsible.

"Credible arguments from previous threads,:

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/635107-thai-baht-tempers-rise-over-b-o-t-rate-policy/page-2"

I haven't seen any credible arguments, especially not from you.

If you want to engage the debate, make your points. I don't think you know enough to engage.

My counter arguments to the nonesence you raised are set out on page 2 of that link, my point is that you do not have a clue what you are talking about when it comes to the Thai economy.

[NeverSure]

chiang mai

The facts are NS that you spout things that you say are facts when they

are not even close and when these things are pointed out to you you

simple start all over again with the same rubbish in a different thread,

all you are trying to do is to trash Thailand and it's irresponsible.

"Credible arguments from previous threads,:

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/635107-thai-baht-tempers-rise-over-b-o-t-rate-policy/page-2"

I haven't seen any credible arguments, especially not from you.

If you want to engage the debate, make your points. I don't think you know enough to engage.

My counter arguments to the nonesence you raised are set out on page 2 of that link, my point is that you do not have a clue what you are talking about when it comes to the Thai economy.

I haven't read a good "counterpoint" from you.

I will leave it at that. We have read a credible report about 2 Thai banks failing and you can look all around and see the overbuilt real estate situation. You can believe whatever you want. it's you money.

I'm gone.

PS. Did you ever find out the definition of "accrual accounting" to get the point of how fast a bank can come down if the loans don't perform?

[chiang mai]

No and I really don't care either!

You know the irony of all of this is that even the guy in the street wearing a sandwhich board that says, "the world is going to end", is right, given enough time, doubtless in years to come you will have the opportunity to tell us all, "I told you so", the fact that may be many many years hence doesn't make it any the less nonesence by saying it today.

Enough, I'm off to the gym.

[NeverSure]

No and I really don't care either!

You know the irony of all of this is that even the guy in the street wearing a sandwhich board that says, "the world is going to end", is right, given enough time, doubtless in years to come you will have the opportunity to tell us all, "I told you so", the fact that may be many many years hence doesn't make it any the less nonesence by saying it today.

Enough, I'm off to the gym.

If you don't understand banking at all, especially not how they can get underwater and hide there for a long time with accrual accounting, then you really shouldn't discuss the subject.

Hiding the truth with accrual accounting, and then suddenly unwinding a fractional reserve system is the time honored way to crash a banking system.

But that's way over your head and you don't care. Off to the gym.

[akampa]

Definition of 'Fractional Reserve Banking'

A banking system in which only a fraction of bank deposits are backed by actual cash-on-hand and are available for withdrawal. This is done to expand the economy by freeing up capital that can be loaned out to other parties. Most countries operate under this type of system.

Also known as "fractional deposit lending".

Definition of 'Accrual Accounting' An accounting method that measures the performance and position of a company by recognizing economic events regardless of when cash transactions occur. The general idea is that economic events are recognized by matching revenues to expenses (the matching principle) at the time in which the transaction occurs rather than when payment is made (or received). This method allows the current cash inflows/outflows to be combined with future expected cash inflows/outflows to give a more accurate picture of a company's current financial condition.

Edited April 28, 2013 by akampa

[chiang mai]

No and I really don't care either!

You know the irony of all of this is that even the guy in the street wearing a sandwhich board that says, "the world is going to end", is right, given enough time, doubtless in years to come you will have the opportunity to tell us all, "I told you so", the fact that may be many many years hence doesn't make it any the less nonesence by saying it today.

Enough, I'm off to the gym.

If you don't understand banking at all, especially not how they can get underwater and hide there for a long time with accrual accounting, then you really shouldn't discuss the subject.

Hiding the truth with accrual accounting, and then suddenly unwinding a fractional reserve system is the time honored way to crash a banking system.

But that's way over your head and you don't care. Off to the gym.

No and I really don't care either!

You know the irony of all of this is that even the guy in the street wearing a sandwhich board that says, "the world is going to end", is right, given enough time, doubtless in years to come you will have the opportunity to tell us all, "I told you so", the fact that may be many many years hence doesn't make it any the less nonesence by saying it today.

Enough, I'm off to the gym.

If you don't understand banking at all, especially not how they can get underwater and hide there for a long time with accrual accounting, then you really shouldn't discuss the subject.

Hiding the truth with accrual accounting, and then suddenly unwinding a fractional reserve system is the time honored way to crash a banking system.

But that's way over your head and you don't care. Off to the gym.

You asked me if I had looked up accrual accounting and I replied that I diidn't care about that and I still don't, you somehow seem to think that me not caring translates into me not understanding banking which I find distinctly odd. But indeed I do understand banking to some degree having worked for a state banking corporation in the US for many years, but that is not relevant to your ridiculous and unsupported claims about the Thai economy either.

[yoshiwara]

The SME and Islamic Banks are ridiculously insignificant.

Get real.

The fundamentals in Thailand are good.

The 16 year rise of the Thai Baht to record highs prove it.

Maybe the market has got it wrong, But surely not over 16 years.

I wouldn't be writing off that information about the two banks, assuming accuracy of the report.

The question to be asked is to what degree the risk profile of customers in these two banks is replicated in other banks and whether there is a general problem. The issue may currently be below the radar for international investors but if I was holding Thai banks in an SET portfolio I might be reviewing the situation.

[Tep]

The SME and Islamic Banks are classified by the Ministry of Finance as Specialised Financial Institutions. They are not regulated by the BOT but directly by MOF through the Fiscal Policy Office. They operate under different financial criteria because they act as policy instruments of the government. They cannot be compared with standard commercial banks.

Edited April 28, 2013 by Tep

[BrianCR]

No you're 100% wrong.

Are you certain? LOS is going to hit the wall and go through the other side soon enough.

Easy credit is a sure sign and Thailand is riding a wave.

Simple lesson in economics - banks creditors suddenly fall on hard times and unable to honour their obligations. Walk out to the street to evidence the debt of the middle class. Note the expensive cars, iPhones and property. The majority are not rich and beholden.

Thailand would be hard pushed to bail out the major banks. Where and what are the assets of this emerging economy?

Good post.

In 1997 Thailand got a big loan from the IMF to keep its banks open.

And repaid it early!

[farang000999]

-Thailand is way overbuilt in real estate, much of it empty, and banks nationwide have 40% of their assets in real estate loans.

-Thailand has a home loan program with nothing down to put the masses into homes.

This sounds like BS.

[wooloomooloo]

there are indeed parallels. big suburbs of BKK have more inhabitants than Iceland

...dubious interest rates on savings. Attractive to investors and speculators.

Economic failure will come the same way. Nothing to do with population and apparent wealth.

[ExpatOilWorker]

The SME and Islamic Banks are classified by the Ministry of Finance as Specialised Financial Institutions. They are not regulated by the BOT but directly by MOF through the Fiscal Policy Office. They operate under different financial criteria because they act as policy instruments of the government. They cannot be compared with standard commercial banks.

Absolutely correct. As an example both SME and Islamic Bank were used by the government to compensate retailers that got affected from the Airport closure, burning of Central World and flooding of the central plains.

The tourist sector also got access to easy and cheap loans in 2006-08, when tourist numbers were down after the 2006 military coup.

None of this were ever suppose to generate much return, but create stability at the time. It was Thailand's own little stimulus package.

The commercial banks in Thailand are doing just fine.

Edited April 28, 2013 by ExpatOilWorker

[Naam]

there are indeed parallels. big suburbs of BKK have more inhabitants than Iceland

...dubious interest rates on savings. Attractive to investors and speculators.

Economic failure will come the same way. Nothing to do with population and apparent wealth.

you mean some BKK suburbs will fail economically because they offer dubious interest rates on savings?

[Naam]

The SME and Islamic Banks are classified by the Ministry of Finance as Specialised Financial Institutions. They are not regulated by the BOT but directly by MOF through the Fiscal Policy Office. They operate under different financial criteria because they act as policy instruments of the government. They cannot be compared with standard commercial banks.

Absolutely correct. As an example both SME and Islamic Bank were used by the government to compensate retailers that got affected from the Airport closure, burning of Central World and flooding of the central plains.

The tourist sector also got access to easy and cheap loans in 2006-08, when tourist numbers were down after the 2006 military coup.

None of this were ever suppose to generate much return, but create stability at the time. It was Thailand's own little stimulus package.

The commercial banks in Thailand are doing just fine.

you know that, Tep knows and i know. but that does not mean the average expat (who thinks he will profit when gloom&doom rules in Thailand) knows.

[ExpatOilWorker]

The SME and Islamic Banks are classified by the Ministry of Finance as Specialised Financial Institutions. They are not regulated by the BOT but directly by MOF through the Fiscal Policy Office. They operate under different financial criteria because they act as policy instruments of the government. They cannot be compared with standard commercial banks.

Absolutely correct. As an example both SME and Islamic Bank were used by the government to compensate retailers that got affected from the Airport closure, burning of Central World and flooding of the central plains.

The tourist sector also got access to easy and cheap loans in 2006-08, when tourist numbers were down after the 2006 military coup.

None of this were ever suppose to generate much return, but create stability at the time. It was Thailand's own little stimulus package.

The commercial banks in Thailand are doing just fine.

you know that, Tep knows and i know. but that does not mean the average expat (who thinks he will profit when gloom&doom rules in Thailand) knows.

We better keep it that way, I hate to ruin somebodies day with some good news.