Thai gov. to tax (remitted) income from abroad for tax residents starting 2024 - Part II

[impulse]

Well I have been in the 2nd liners in the thai sharemarket and done very well thank you ( example Demco 3.80 now 17) + divs at 4+% on the way so it would have to be a mighty big correction for me to go back into the red some of you guys just missed the boat thats all.

Yup, and I also missed out on that ENRON stock and those Florida retirement condos, Facebook on the IPO, Apple which was supposed to keep going, and that gold at $1800 a few weeks ago.

Every one of those made lots of people wealthy if they got out in time or shorted them while the paid gurus were recommending a buy.

Congrats on making the money. You are braver than I am.

Edited May 6, 2013 by impulse

[AnotherOneAmerican]

You have only made money when you sell out.

For those having 200 condos, you only made money when you have sold enough to cover your initial investment.

For those who love to buy gold, you have only made money when you have sold enough of your gold to recover your initial purchase.

In any Ponzi scheme

Those left holding (suddenly) worthless assets, lose.

Those who sell out at a profit, win.

Thailand and stability, don't mention the elephant standing in the room.

Edited May 6, 2013 by AnotherOneAmerican

[khunken]

Surely the Op is just referring to the local stock market & not the Thai economy in general.

Just like the US markets, the SET has recently reached an all-time high. Is this sustainable? Short-term maybe, but medium to long term definitely not. It's certainly not a good time to start in the market.

But I'm sure the Op could spin an investment opportunity or two.

[Thai at Heart]

You have only made money when you sell out.

For those having 200 condos, you only made money when you have sold enough to cover your initial investment.

For those who love to buy gold, you have only made money when you have sold enough of your gold to recover your initial purchase.

In any Ponzi scheme

Those left holding (suddenly) worthless assets, lose.

Those who sell out at a profit, win.

Thailand and stability, don't mention the elephant standing in the room.

So the risk is the same as the rest of the world.

Look at fundamentals and do research. I hear the Cypriot banking share look really cheap right now. Going up sometime soon.

You see, Thailand fundamentals are OK. Not for unresearched investment, but it's OK. Of course, the world currencies night disappear and we will use gold coins for currency???????????

Thailand is on OK shape right now.

[bkk_mike]

The four most dangerous words in investing are 'This time it's different.'

- Sir John Templeton

[Thai at Heart]

The four most dangerous words in investing are 'This time it's different.'

- Sir John Templeton

No one would ever invest anything, anywhere in anything if this was genuinely true.

Unless Thailand has a monopoly on new cons. research is your only defence.

[AnotherOneAmerican]

You see, Thailand fundamentals are OK. Not for unresearched investment, but it's OK. Of course, the world currencies night disappear and we will use gold coins for currency???????????

Only good for those trading gold in person, paper traders get nothing.

Come the end, I prefer to be trading lead in person.

Edited May 6, 2013 by AnotherOneAmerican

[Thai at Heart]

You see, Thailand fundamentals are OK. Not for unresearched investment, but it's OK. Of course, the world currencies night disappear and we will use gold coins for currency???????????

Only good for those trading gold in person, paper traders get nothing.

Come the end, I prefer to be trading lead in person.

Well precisely. Perception is everything. Gold coins and bullion will last about 10 days as currency until IOU's create a trade able currency.

Of course being a surgeon capable of safely removing bullets will also quite a valuable job. Actually owning an ammunition factory would probably be the most profitable of all.

Edited May 6, 2013 by Thai at Heart

[dcutman]

I believe a big reason the Thai economy, and all of SE Asia for that matter, is and has been on fire is because of easy credit.

Thai household debt has been rising 20 to 30% every year for the last few years. In fact the personal debt to GDP is higher now than it was in 1997, as it is in most other Asian countries,

There are property "bubbles" expanding in almost every Asian country. It will only take 1 or 2 of those "bubbles" to burst and the dominoes will start falling, it doesnt have to start in Thailand..

A little clip from the World Bank.

The World Bank sounded a warning on rising debt levels in countries such as Thailand, Malaysia and China.

While
China's general government debt stood at 22.2 percent in 2012, up from
19.6 percent five years ago, non-financial corporate debt has jumped to
126.4 percent of GDP from 113.6 percent in 2007. Household debt equal
29.2 percent of GDP in China, up more than 10 percentage points from
2007, the World Bank added.

"More significant than the growth of
government debt has been the expansion in corporate and household
debt... The sum of general government, non-financial corporate and
household debt now exceeds 150 percent of GDP in Malaysia, Thailand and
China," the World Bank said.

Edited May 6, 2013 by dcutman

[jbrain]

It's different this time.

Really, it is....trust us.

Do we trust anybody? This report is by a western company... your comment is usually reserved for Thai's. Perhaps this starts a new chain of postings on TV (the whole world is against us!)

The 1997 crash was ignited by a western investor.

[Thait Spot]

He's talking about the equities market. Thai companies such as Ocean Glass for example are doing well.

The biggest risk to Thai companies quoted on the SET such as CP etc. Is the Baht falling and equities will be hedged against the Baht

[Thai at Heart]

He's talking about the equities market. Thai companies such as Ocean Glass for example are doing well.

The biggest risk to Thai companies quoted on the SET such as CP etc. Is the Baht falling and equities will be hedged against the Baht

Cps business in the region and China dwarves it's total business in Thailand.

[geriatrickid]

Berrisford should come to Isaan and see all the short time hotels that have just been built with no customers, and all the big box stores with more staff than customers. Not to memtion all the used car lots springing up everwhere. I really don't think these are sustainable. Something has to give. Sent from my i-mobile IQ 6 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

I too have been in Issan, and have seen an improvement in the infrastructure and the general living conditions. Yes, some business people have made some dubious investment decisions. However, many more have invested wisely. A decade ago there was no Central or Centara complex in Udon Thani. Now it is an anchor asset. This large investment in and of itself has had a greater impact upon the local economy than these short time hotels you speak of. The recent addition of the Pannerai hotel is another indication of long term prospects. I was just there and it was moderately busy. (BTW a wonderful alternative to Centara if anyone needs to stay in Udon Thani.)

Five years ago, there wasn't even a reliable electricity grid in many areas, and now significant improvements have been made. My friend has recently expanded into fish farming.From my western perspective, I think he is not going about it the right way, but it's working out for him and his family. A decade ago, he would not have had the income to make such an investment and to in turn provide employment to others, but he's doing it now. Sometimes, the benefits are small and at the individual level and sometimes they are on big ticket things. We westerners have a tendency to focus on the big ticket aspect. Perhaps we should look at the immediate impact upon the individual. There are those that will lose their money no matter the what the economic conditions are.

[longtom]

The biggest risk is still the inevitable event occuring sometime in the future (the elephant in the room). It will paralyze the country and bring political instability for quite some time. Markets/investors won't like that.

Without doubt savvy investors like Naam have planned for this contingency for a long time already (after skimming of a fortune in the last year or so ).

Edited May 6, 2013 by longtom

[livinthailandos]

To longtom

Totally agree with the statement. When that time comes thailand's real future will be up in the air then, when that time comes ill be gone as it wont be safe here

Sent from my using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[Phronesis]

My neighbours just bought a new car for 2.5 million baht on hire purchase with 3 percent down as the deposit.

They have a combined income of 32KTHB per month.

They also have a mortgage and three new tablets on credit from IT bananna.

Believe nothing of what you read and everything that you see...

[atsiii]

"So the question investors might ask is, is Thailand's rally sustainable, or it is just undergoing another bubble that will eventually burst? I would argue the former."

I myself would argue the later...

[Thai at Heart]

"So the question investors might ask is, is Thailand's rally sustainable, or it is just undergoing another bubble that will eventually burst? I would argue the former."

I myself would argue the later...

The best hope to avoid a bubble is to allow the market to do it's work. 97 was so bad because they fixed the exchange rate.

A bubble is what? A gross overvaluation for an extended period that has no basis in market fundamentals.

If the Thai property market devalued by 20% would Thailand fall apart? I am not sure, but I don't think the scale of the problem is the same as the USA or EU property markets.

[Eesat]

According to TVF the Thai economy is in dire straits, so i am not sure what this article is all about.

If you understand that Thailand is an export driven economy,it is!

[Commander Tamson]

The higher it gets, the more risky it gets. It might continue for a while, but the risks are more on the downside after such a meteoric rise. With so many funds invested here, there can't many many left to buy, which means any small panic could lead to big losses, as many dump stocks that have already made them a fortune.

During the lows of 1997 was the time to buy, nit during the highs of 2013.

Of course, I could be wrong.

Don't think so old chap

[Eesat]

It's different this time.

Really, it is....trust us.

Do we trust anybody? This report is by a western company... your comment is usually reserved for Thai's. Perhaps this starts a new chain of postings on TV (the whole world is against us!)

My comment was not a slam at all on Thailand.

If it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck and...

This looks like a bubble, returns and growth with no underlying fundamentals, and a bunch of "experts" telling us why it's for real this time.

Like the dotcoms, ENRON, the housing bubble, CDO's and... (need I go on?)

Unfortunately you cannot compare Thailand to a specific American market or financial instrument or company even.Whatever happens Thailand will still exist in one form or another once the smoke clears!

All these things are cyclical and Thailand have quite a bit of room to manoeuvre with interest rates relatively high compared to the Western world and of course not printing currency as fast as the presses can crank over like the Western world.

Just two things making the Thai Baht one of the strongest currencies on the planet right now!The BOT Governer and Finance Minister need to get their heads together and agree on lowering interest rates by 50-100 basis points to drop the Baht substantially.

I saw in the Bangkok Post today they've agreed there is a problem and they've also agreed that they have to do something about it.They've also come to the conclusion that it should be a combination of things that they take action on!

I believe they've also agreed that it's very difficult to have to make all these agreements with each other and have agreed that at some point in the near future it's possible that they may well agree to take some action on it!

TiT!!!

[Thai at Heart]

It's different this time.

Really, it is....trust us.

Do we trust anybody? This report is by a western company... your comment is usually reserved for Thai's. Perhaps this starts a new chain of postings on TV (the whole world is against us!)

My comment was not a slam at all on Thailand.

If it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck and...

This looks like a bubble, returns and growth with no underlying fundamentals, and a bunch of "experts" telling us why it's for real this time.

Like the dotcoms, ENRON, the housing bubble, CDO's and... (need I go on?)

Unfortunately you cannot compare Thailand to a specific American market or financial instrument or company even.Whatever happens Thailand will still exist in one form or another once the smoke clears!

All these things are cyclical and Thailand have quite a bit of room to manoeuvre with interest rates relatively high compared to the Western world and of course not printing currency as fast as the presses can crank over like the Western world.

Just two things making the Thai Baht one of the strongest currencies on the planet right now!The BOT Governer and Finance Minister need to get their heads together and agree on lowering interest rates by 50-100 basis points to drop the Baht substantially.

I saw in the Bangkok Post today they've agreed there is a problem and they've also agreed that they have to do something about it.They've also come to the conclusion that it should be a combination of things that they take action on!

I believe they've also agreed that it's very difficult to have to make all these agreements with each other and have agreed that at some point in the near future it's possible that they may well agree to take some action on it!

TiT!!!

They will get it to 30 and try to hold it there, hoping that the USA economy starts to strengthen in the next 6 to 9 months.

[Eesat]

I love markets like this!

After 26 years of living here I am once again looking for lots of cheap condos and houses shortly after the crash happens.

I am sorry, the sort of investment I see in condos is not sustainable.

In 1998 after the crash I had a friend who bought a huge 300 meter condo in soi 11 for 4 million and another bought a 250 meter one in soi 8 for 3 million. Since then they have more than quadrupled in value.

Bring on the Bubbles!

Unfortunately any gains he's made since 1998 have been more than wiped out by the fact that he's 15 years into his 30 year leasehold,which is all he's allowed to buy a condo for in Thailand!

They have intrinsic value a bit like trading options,the joys of property speculation in Thailand and he's halfway to expiration on his Condo Call!

They should give you the Delta value of your penthouse when you sign up at the estate agents!

[Thai at Heart]

I love markets like this!

After 26 years of living here I am once again looking for lots of cheap condos and houses shortly after the crash happens.

I am sorry, the sort of investment I see in condos is not sustainable.

In 1998 after the crash I had a friend who bought a huge 300 meter condo in soi 11 for 4 million and another bought a 250 meter one in soi 8 for 3 million. Since then they have more than quadrupled in value.

Bring on the Bubbles!

Unfortunately any gains he's made since 1998 have been more than wiped out by the fact that he's 15 years into his 30 year leasehold,which is all he's allowed to buy a condo for in Thailand!

They have intrinsic value a bit like trading options,the joys of property speculation in Thailand and he's halfway to expiration on his Condo Call!

They should give you the Delta value of your penthouse when you sign up at the estate agents!

Lease on a condo?

[Eesat]

Well I have been in the 2nd liners in the thai sharemarket and done very well thank you ( example Demco 3.80 now 17) + divs at 4+% on the way so it would have to be a mighty big correction for me to go back into the red some of you guys just missed the boat thats all.

Yup, and I also missed out on that ENRON stock and those Florida retirement condos, Facebook on the IPO, Apple which was supposed to keep going, and that gold at $1800 a few weeks ago.

Every one of those made lots of people wealthy if they got out in time or shorted them while the paid gurus were recommending a buy.

Congrats on making the money. You are braver than I am.

You forgot Google!

[Naam]

I love markets like this!

After 26 years of living here I am once again looking for lots of cheap condos and houses shortly after the crash happens.

I am sorry, the sort of investment I see in condos is not sustainable.

In 1998 after the crash I had a friend who bought a huge 300 meter condo in soi 11 for 4 million and another bought a 250 meter one in soi 8 for 3 million. Since then they have more than quadrupled in value.

Bring on the Bubbles!

Unfortunately any gains he's made since 1998 have been more than wiped out by the fact that he's 15 years into his 30 year leasehold,which is all he's allowed to buy a condo for in Thailand!

They have intrinsic value a bit like trading options,the joys of property speculation in Thailand and he's halfway to expiration on his Condo Call!

They should give you the Delta value of your penthouse when you sign up at the estate agents!

Lease on a condo?

to the best of my knowledge foreign ownership of condos with the ratio Thai 51: Foreigners 49 was introduced mid 1998 and at that time thousands and thousands of condos were suddenly eligible to be purchased by foreigners. before that it was the company route to go.

Delta value = bla-bla-bla! have never heard of any condo with a 30Y lease.

[Thai at Heart]

I love markets like this!

After 26 years of living here I am once again looking for lots of cheap condos and houses shortly after the crash happens.

I am sorry, the sort of investment I see in condos is not sustainable.

In 1998 after the crash I had a friend who bought a huge 300 meter condo in soi 11 for 4 million and another bought a 250 meter one in soi 8 for 3 million. Since then they have more than quadrupled in value.

Bring on the Bubbles!

Unfortunately any gains he's made since 1998 have been more than wiped out by the fact that he's 15 years into his 30 year leasehold,which is all he's allowed to buy a condo for in Thailand!

They have intrinsic value a bit like trading options,the joys of property speculation in Thailand and he's halfway to expiration on his Condo Call!

They should give you the Delta value of your penthouse when you sign up at the estate agents!

Lease on a condo?

to the best of my knowledge foreign ownership of condos with the ratio Thai 51: Foreigners 49 was introduced mid 1998 and at that time thousands and thousands of condos were suddenly eligible to be purchased by foreigners. before that it was the company route to go.

Delta value = bla-bla-bla! have never heard of any condo with a 30Y lease.

Me neither, that's why I asked. Maybe for distressed sale, but for a condo, I have never heard it.

[chiang mai]

I have a lease on a condo, why not.

[Thai at Heart]

I have a lease on a condo, why not.

Curious why? You mean lease or rental contract?

[bigbamboo]

How many booms can be sustained ad infinitum?

And more to the point, if you were going to back a country that might be capable of keeping a boom going how many would put their money on Thailand?