Night of the Iguana: Old Fogies with young Thai Nubiles. Do they mix?

[AnotherOneAmerican]

Quite rightly too since those things havent yet happened!

Did it occur to you that the world could end tomorow?

I'm hoping the world ends, or I end, before my pension fund ends.

[Thai at Heart]

http://asiancorrespondent.com/59663/stoking-fear-thailand-debt/

41% is what I see from the nation report. It's not as though they love the current party is it.

Fear is a bigger influence than love.

You fear those who will lock you in jail without trial if you dare to print the wrong thing.

Do I care if some property developers end up holding the baby? Nope.

Do I worry that much if a percentage of petiole people cannot pay the balloon on their off plan condo. No.

Do i get very concerned if they have corruptly lent with no due diligence to every developer under the sun as in 97. Yes

Have they? I believe not. Can Thailand survive a reduction in property prices by 15% yes.

Will it cause an economic implosion like the USA or EU? Nope, because they have scope to support domestic demand by cutting interest rates, and have scope to borrow.

Will Thailand fall on its ass as in 97? If people here knew how bad that was, if they recreate it again, the people will lynch the bankers, politicians and bureaucrats together.

Is Thailand in an OK financial position?

In comparison with just about any developed country it looks positively balmy.

Busts are always followed by euphoria. It's the unwavering faith in the face of the truth that allows things to accelerate into a bubble. Right up until the crash, the majority will always believe there is no end in sight. If that wasn't true, the bubble couldn't develop. People would begin to back off and get conservative in lending, borrowing, buying, developing etc. if they had any clue there was an end in sight.

But no, the bust always catches most people, including "experts" by surprise. That's why banks and Wall Street and main street are standing there shaking their heads the day after, with their pockets turned inside out.

You don't have to be an expert. You just need common sense. Just look around you.

The current government is made up of clowns who think they can tap the national treasure to make themselves look good and get elected. The utter failure and massive expense of the rice scheme is just a small window through which you can see their ignorance and their arrogance.

The unsustainable real estate boom in condos, commercial properties including big malls, etc., is another window if anyone with common sense will just look.

The no down car scheme and the no down home buyers' scheme are two more windows.

Massive government deficits and borrowing and weakness of banks are more windows to see through.

Enough of those windows, and the light floods in for anyone who will look.

I have no problem debating any of this. The thing is the stats are the stats and I believe Thailand is in an OK position.

This is a combination of many stats, relative to other countries. Will it fall like 97. I believe not, because the rest of the world is on so much worse position.

So worrying that GDP might drop precipitously when there is no indication that it will, or that the rice policy (how many billion USD is that relative to the usa government borrowing this year) will destroy the whole country without any indication is pure emotion.

Yes, Thailand should be cautious about lending to construction. It appears the BOT knows this hence why they haven't dropped interest rates. I can only read as much as I do, and I am intrigued to hear about the 100% mortgages.

But relative to other countries, the stats show that Thailand is currently in an OK position.

[aTomsLife]

I have no problem debating any of this. The thing is the stats are the stats and I believe Thailand is in an OK position.

This is a combination of many stats, relative to other countries. Will it fall like 97. I believe not, because the rest of the world is on so much worse position.

So worrying that GDP might drop precipitously when there is no indication that it will, or that the rice policy (how many billion USD is that relative to the usa government borrowing this year) will destroy the whole country without any indication is pure emotion.

Yes, Thailand should be cautious about lending to construction. It appears the BOT knows this hence why they haven't dropped interest rates. I can only read as much as I do, and I am intrigued to hear about the 100% mortgages.

But relative to other countries, the stats show that Thailand is currently in an OK position.

What does relativity have to do with things? One can drown in a bathtub the same as one does in an ocean. Why, then, are you comparing Thailand's fiscal mismanagement to the U.S.'s? Are you insinuating that because Thailand's economy exists on a smaller scale, that somehow insulates it from collapse?

Edited May 8, 2013 by aTomsLife

[Thai at Heart]

I have no problem debating any of this. The thing is the stats are the stats and I believe Thailand is in an OK position.

This is a combination of many stats, relative to other countries. Will it fall like 97. I believe not, because the rest of the world is on so much worse position.

So worrying that GDP might drop precipitously when there is no indication that it will, or that the rice policy (how many billion USD is that relative to the usa government borrowing this year) will destroy the whole country without any indication is pure emotion.

Yes, Thailand should be cautious about lending to construction. It appears the BOT knows this hence why they haven't dropped interest rates. I can only read as much as I do, and I am intrigued to hear about the 100% mortgages.

But relative to other countries, the stats show that Thailand is currently in an OK position.

What does relativity have to do with things? One can drown in a bathtub the same as one does in an ocean. Why, then, are you comparing Thailand's fiscal mismanagement to the U.S.'s? Are you insinuating that because Thailand's economy exists on a smaller scale, that somehow insulates it from collapse?

Support or not support for the finances of a country is largely set by the willingness of the market to fund it. All currency valuation is comparison value over the long term. The way to smoothe out currency shocks is not to fix the currency but to target inflation as the bot is doing now.

No country is an island. Inflation, debt, GDP growth, and a myriad of other stats build the model through how this works.

People are not sitting in London or the USA putting money into Thailand because they "chorp meaung Thai". To trigger a collapse needs a realisation of fundamentals which anyone with half an economic braincell could see coming in the EU 10 years ago.

So, yes, debt relative to others, interest rates relative to others, political risk relative to others, and a million other small factors drive investment decisions in this global market.

Look at their debt to GDP ratio USA and Thailand, or UK and Thailand.

Why are these currencies devaluing? Because they have debt up the wazooooo and are stimulating growth by cutting interest rates

Thailand is at the other end of the spectrum. They have relatively few debts and OK GDP growth.4 to 5%.

Would you rather lend someone money who offers to pay you 3.5% per year and is in quite good shape, or lend money to someone who offers 0.5% but his credit card is completely maxxed out.

Some people choose today to invest in Thailand for the financial return over investing in the USA. That's risk analysis.

Edited May 8, 2013 by Thai at Heart

[AnotherOneAmerican]

Would you rather lend someone money who offers to pay you 3.5% per year and is in quite good shape, or lend money to someone who offers 0.5% but

his credit card is completely maxxed out. Some people choose today to invest in Thailand for the financial return over investing in the USA. That's risk analysis.

That worked out really well in Iceland and Cyprus.

[Thai at Heart]

Would you rather lend someone money who offers to pay you 3.5% per year and is in quite good shape, or lend money to someone who offers 0.5% but

his credit card is completely maxxed out. Some people choose today to invest in Thailand for the financial return over investing in the USA. That's risk analysis.

That worked out really well in Iceland and Cyprus.

I don't get your point, it's hardly Thailand's fault that the EU, and USA screwed it up.

And yes, the Cypriot banks and Icelandic basks banks attracted total assets I think in Iceland's case 8 times larger than the entire GDP of the country.

Not a problem Thailand is likely to face in the near future.

Look it up, the Icelandic and Cypriot systems had huge deregulation and massive borrowings. Even the big Mac index showed the Icelandic currency to be the most overvalued in the world. I believe currently it shows the Thai baht to be about 15% undervalued.

Thailand might have some dodgy bankers, but it us nowhere near the level of Cyprus which was a money washing scheme, and neither does Thailand have the budget obligations of funding European benefits and pensions.

[rubl]

""I believe currently it shows the Thai baht to be about 15% undervalued.""

So, there's still space for more air :-)

[Thai at Heart]

""I believe currently it shows the Thai baht to be about 15% undervalued.""

So, there's still space for more air :-)

In this climate, the bot is struggling to stop it strengthening. The USD, GBP, euro and yen are all racing each other to the bottom.

It's a basic measure, but in the medium term run quite interesting to watch

Edited May 8, 2013 by Thai at Heart

[aTomsLife]

What does relativity have to do with things? One can drown in a bathtub the same as one does in an ocean. Why, then, are you comparing Thailand's fiscal mismanagement to the U.S.'s? Are you insinuating that because Thailand's economy exists on a smaller scale, that somehow insulates it from collapse?

Support or not support for the finances of a country is largely set by the willingness of the market to fund it. All currency valuation is comparison value over the long term. The way to smoothe out currency shocks is not to fix the currency but to target inflation as the bot is doing now.

No country is an island. Inflation, debt, GDP growth, and a myriad of other stats build the model through how this works.

People are not sitting in London or the USA putting money into Thailand because they "chorp meaung Thai". To trigger a collapse needs a realisation of fundamentals which anyone with half an economic braincell could see coming in the EU 10 years ago.

So, yes, debt relative to others, interest rates relative to others, political risk relative to others, and a million other small factors drive investment decisions in this global market.

Look at their debt to GDP ratio USA and Thailand, or UK and Thailand.

Why are these currencies devaluing? Because they have debt up the wazooooo and are stimulating growth by cutting interest rates

Thailand is at the other end of the spectrum. They have relatively few debts and OK GDP growth.4 to 5%.

Would you rather lend someone money who offers to pay you 3.5% per year and is in quite good shape, or lend money to someone who offers 0.5% but his credit card is completely maxxed out.

Some people choose today to invest in Thailand for the financial return over investing in the USA. That's risk analysis.

Thailand offers a higher interest rate because it's inherently more risky. Despite its low yield, people still flock to the dollar as a safe haven. Interest on the U.S.'s debt represents about 1.3% of GDP. While not a great thing, to say Uncle Sam can't pay its bills is plain old fear mongering and political posturing.

Thailand, on the other hand, may have relatively few debts at the moment, but then this conversation has been largely fueled by the government's plan to finance a 2.2 trillion baht infrastructure project, thus altering in the extreme its GDP to debt ratio. Moreover, Thailand lacks the reputation of the United States, and regardless of how you feel about the U.S., this statement is fact.

"People are not sitting in London or the USA putting money into Thailand because they "chorp meaung Thai". To trigger a collapse needs a realisation of fundamentals which anyone with half an economic braincell could see coming in the EU 10 years ago.

There are a lot of people that see Thai fundamentals in much the same light. Time will tell, of course.

So, yes, debt relative to others, interest rates relative to others, political risk relative to others, and a million other small factors drive investment decisions in this global market."

I can't believe you cited political risk in an argument in favor of the Thai economy sustaining its growth...

[Thai at Heart]

What does relativity have to do with things? One can drown in a bathtub the same as one does in an ocean. Why, then, are you comparing Thailand's fiscal mismanagement to the U.S.'s? Are you insinuating that because Thailand's economy exists on a smaller scale, that somehow insulates it from collapse?

Support or not support for the finances of a country is largely set by the willingness of the market to fund it. All currency valuation is comparison value over the long term. The way to smoothe out currency shocks is not to fix the currency but to target inflation as the bot is doing now.

No country is an island. Inflation, debt, GDP growth, and a myriad of other stats build the model through how this works.

People are not sitting in London or the USA putting money into Thailand because they "chorp meaung Thai". To trigger a collapse needs a realisation of fundamentals which anyone with half an economic braincell could see coming in the EU 10 years ago.

So, yes, debt relative to others, interest rates relative to others, political risk relative to others, and a million other small factors drive investment decisions in this global market.

Look at their debt to GDP ratio USA and Thailand, or UK and Thailand.

Why are these currencies devaluing? Because they have debt up the wazooooo and are stimulating growth by cutting interest rates

Thailand is at the other end of the spectrum. They have relatively few debts and OK GDP growth.4 to 5%.

Would you rather lend someone money who offers to pay you 3.5% per year and is in quite good shape, or lend money to someone who offers 0.5% but his credit card is completely maxxed out.

Some people choose today to invest in Thailand for the financial return over investing in the USA. That's risk analysis.

Thailand offers a higher interest rate because it's inherently more risky. Despite its low yield, people still flock to the dollar as a safe haven. Interest on the U.S.'s debt represents about 1.3% of GDP. While not a great thing, to say Uncle Sam can't pay its bills is plain old fear mongering and political posturing.

Thailand, on the other hand, may have relatively few debts at the moment, but then this conversation has been largely fueled by the government's plan to finance a 2.2 trillion baht infrastructure project, thus altering in the extreme its GDP to debt ratio. Moreover, Thailand lacks the reputation of the United States, and regardless of how you feel about the U.S., this statement is fact.

"People are not sitting in London or the USA putting money into Thailand because they "chorp meaung Thai". To trigger a collapse needs a realisation of fundamentals which anyone with half an economic braincell could see coming in the EU 10 years ago.

There are a lot of people that see Thai fundamentals in much the same light. Time will tell, of course.

So, yes, debt relative to others, interest rates relative to others, political risk relative to others, and a million other small factors drive investment decisions in this global market."

I can't believe you cited political risk in an argument in favor of the Thai economy sustaining its growth...

Thailand has inflation of over 3% so the BOT is ironically trying to stop inflationary bubbles. If it cuts interest rates, ironically it would fuel inflation even more.

Of course Thailand is more risky, but it only takes a few strategic decision makers to realign their investment strategies to focus on developing markets, and wham, a big flood of USD comes Thailand's way.

Political risk is measured as part of a model. This isn't an absolute. Fund managers have billions to invest and they spread it around according to risk reward numbers.

There is a school of thought that the USA will never be able to pay its debts without devaluing by 50%. Put it like this something has to give.

As a question, the interest repayment you talk of as 1.? Of GDP, is that at current rates of 0.5% interest?

Edited May 8, 2013 by Thai at Heart

[aTomsLife]

Thailand has inflation of over 3% so the BOT is ironically trying to stop inflationary bubbles. If it cuts interest rates, ironically it would fuel inflation even more.

Of course Thailand is more risky, but it only takes a few strategic decision makers to realign their investment strategies to focus on developing markets, and wham, a big flood of USD comes Thailand's way.

Political risk is measured as part of a model. This isn't an absolute. Fund managers have billions to invest and they spread it around according to risk reward numbers.

There is a school of thought that the USA will never be able to pay its debts without devaluing by 50%. Put it like this something has to give.

As a question, the interest repayment you talk of as 1.? Of GDP, is that at current rates of 0.5% interest?

True, political risk is only part of the story -- in most instances. In Thailand's case, it's not a matter of if but when -- so it is an absolute. Think of it as a paradoxical take on the 800-pound gorilla metaphor. For Thailand, it's the risk that's the proverbial 800 pounds, all because the gorilla himself has grown frail. Sorry if that's cryptic, not trying to get banned and or worse.

Edited May 8, 2013 by aTomsLife

[rubl]

"Of course Thailand is more risky, but it only takes a few strategic decision makers to realign their investment strategies to focus on developing markets, and wham, a big flood of USD comes Thailand's way.">br />
Never there was a more clear example of wishfull thinking. It 'only' takes some realignment. Pray tell does that type of thinking also include a (really) minor possibility of a realignment in another direction?

[Thai at Heart]

"Of course Thailand is more risky, but it only takes a few strategic decision makers to realign their investment strategies to focus on developing markets, and wham, a big flood of USD comes Thailand's way.">br />

Never there was a more clear example of wishfull thinking. It 'only' takes some realignment. Pray tell does that type of thinking also include a (really) minor possibility of a realignment in another direction?

Did you notice the run up in the baht happened in January? New year, new quarter, new strategy. Meetings, plans, get into emerging markets for the new quarter.

Who decides this? Some PhD, mathematician with a main frame in new York and London and Singapore. Yes, to move the Thai currency needs a fraction of the total assets that have been sitting in other markets to move.

The Thai bond market is absolutely tiny in comparison with developed markets. And the ammunition available to the bot to counter this relative avalanche is very little. Of course money can move the other way.

What happens, currency devalues and exports get a boost. Is that meant to signify a collapse or something?

Edited May 8, 2013 by Thai at Heart

[Tomtomtom69]

Without even attempting to speak in economic terms and provide numerous figures, all I can say is Thailand's growth is NOT sustainable and will likely never again reach the highs of the era up to 1997...the country might be doing reasonably well now but in countries with greater political stability, in many cases a more open market, lower wage costs and other attractive features, neighboring countries like Laos and Cambodia will start to reap more benefits of FDI than Thailand will, in coming years. Sure, they still have a lot of catching up to do, but the rates at which their economies have expanded since 1997 is certainly greater than that of the Thai economy. Also, the changes in regulations, the increase in security, tourism, infrastructure etc. are all much more significant than the same changes that have occurred in Thailand over this period - when it comes to political stability and security Thailand has actually gone backwards over this period rather than moved forward. Sure, Thailand started from a much better base but probably as a result of this, doesn't seem to have the drive to push for a transition towards a developed country. At least I have never heard any Thai economist, politician, or anyone talk of such an ambition.

[chiangmaikelly]

Without even attempting to speak in economic terms and provide numerous figures, all I can say is Thailand's growth is NOT sustainable and will likely never again reach the highs of the era up to 1997...the country might be doing reasonably well now but in countries with greater political stability, in many cases a more open market, lower wage costs and other attractive features, neighboring countries like Laos and Cambodia will start to reap more benefits of FDI than Thailand will, in coming years. Sure, they still have a lot of catching up to do, but the rates at which their economies have expanded since 1997 is certainly greater than that of the Thai economy. Also, the changes in regulations, the increase in security, tourism, infrastructure etc. are all much more significant than the same changes that have occurred in Thailand over this period - when it comes to political stability and security Thailand has actually gone backwards over this period rather than moved forward. Sure, Thailand started from a much better base but probably as a result of this, doesn't seem to have the drive to push for a transition towards a developed country. At least I have never heard any Thai economist, politician, or anyone talk of such an ambition.

You wrote, "Without even attempting to speak in economic terms and provide numerous figures, all I can say is Thailand's growth is NOT sustainable"

Is Thai Visa some kind of alternative universe where one can discuss the economy without using figures and economic terms?

I understand eveyone wants to bash Thailand but isin't that a bit too outlandish to even consider?

[NeverSure]

Without even attempting to speak in economic terms and provide numerous figures, all I can say is Thailand's growth is NOT sustainable and will likely never again reach the highs of the era up to 1997...the country might be doing reasonably well now but in countries with greater political stability, in many cases a more open market, lower wage costs and other attractive features, neighboring countries like Laos and Cambodia will start to reap more benefits of FDI than Thailand will, in coming years. Sure, they still have a lot of catching up to do, but the rates at which their economies have expanded since 1997 is certainly greater than that of the Thai economy. Also, the changes in regulations, the increase in security, tourism, infrastructure etc. are all much more significant than the same changes that have occurred in Thailand over this period - when it comes to political stability and security Thailand has actually gone backwards over this period rather than moved forward. Sure, Thailand started from a much better base but probably as a result of this, doesn't seem to have the drive to push for a transition towards a developed country. At least I have never heard any Thai economist, politician, or anyone talk of such an ambition.

You wrote, "Without even attempting to speak in economic terms and provide numerous figures, all I can say is Thailand's growth is NOT sustainable"

Is Thai Visa some kind of alternative universe where one can discuss the economy without using figures and economic terms?

I understand eveyone wants to bash Thailand but isin't that a bit too outlandish to even consider?

I read the same post. It's part of a thread which already has all of the numbers and economic terms. There's no need to be redundant.

What I read into it was that he was correctly adding an emphasis on the relative competitiveness of neighbors, the political instability, and the inability (apparently) of Thailand to make the leap to a developed country.

I will add that my belief is that the corruption will, if nothing else, bring Thailand down. The banking and real estate is corrupt, the rice scheme is extremely expensive and corrupt with its debt off the books, the Agricultural bank is under water as a result with more to come, the rice export business is ruined, and everywhere you look there are huge messes. Look at the news item now of wanting to remove a lot of land from environmental protection so that a flood project can go ahead. On the surface that would bother some environmentalists, but my first thought was "who is getting paid to push this multi-billion baht project forward in such a way?"

It's always "who is getting paid?" that moves the political process to the fore of the attention of anyone who is actually paying attention.

[Naam]

Without even attempting to speak in economic terms and provide numerous figures, all I can say is Thailand's growth is NOT sustainable and will likely never again reach the highs of the era up to 1997...the country might be doing reasonably well now but in countries with greater political stability, in many cases a more open market, lower wage costs and other attractive features, neighboring countries like Laos and Cambodia will start to reap more benefits of FDI than Thailand will, in coming years. Sure, they still have a lot of catching up to do, but the rates at which their economies have expanded since 1997 is certainly greater than that of the Thai economy. Also, the changes in regulations, the increase in security, tourism, infrastructure etc. are all much more significant than the same changes that have occurred in Thailand over this period - when it comes to political stability and security Thailand has actually gone backwards over this period rather than moved forward. Sure, Thailand started from a much better base but probably as a result of this, doesn't seem to have the drive to push for a transition towards a developed country. At least I have never heard any Thai economist, politician, or anyone talk of such an ambition.

but the rates at which their economies have expanded since 1997 is certainly greater than that of the Thai economy

an absolute irrelevant statement. as irrelevant as your personal views, conclusions and forecasts concerning Thailand and its neighbouring countries which are backed by... what?

[Naam]

Is Thai Visa some kind of alternative universe where one can discuss the economy without using figures and economic terms?

yes!

I understand everyone wants to bash Thailand but isin't that a bit too outlandish to even consider?

not in ThaiVisa!

[chiangmaikelly]

Without even attempting to speak in economic terms and provide numerous figures, all I can say is Thailand's growth is NOT sustainable and will likely never again reach the highs of the era up to 1997...the country might be doing reasonably well now but in countries with greater political stability, in many cases a more open market, lower wage costs and other attractive features, neighboring countries like Laos and Cambodia will start to reap more benefits of FDI than Thailand will, in coming years. Sure, they still have a lot of catching up to do, but the rates at which their economies have expanded since 1997 is certainly greater than that of the Thai economy. Also, the changes in regulations, the increase in security, tourism, infrastructure etc. are all much more significant than the same changes that have occurred in Thailand over this period - when it comes to political stability and security Thailand has actually gone backwards over this period rather than moved forward. Sure, Thailand started from a much better base but probably as a result of this, doesn't seem to have the drive to push for a transition towards a developed country. At least I have never heard any Thai economist, politician, or anyone talk of such an ambition.

You wrote, "Without even attempting to speak in economic terms and provide numerous figures, all I can say is Thailand's growth is NOT sustainable"

Is Thai Visa some kind of alternative universe where one can discuss the economy without using figures and economic terms?

I understand eveyone wants to bash Thailand but isin't that a bit too outlandish to even consider?

I read the same post. It's part of a thread which already has all of the numbers and economic terms. There's no need to be redundant.

What I read into it was that he was correctly adding an emphasis on the relative competitiveness of neighbors, the political instability, and the inability (apparently) of Thailand to make the leap to a developed country.

I will add that my belief is that the corruption will, if nothing else, bring Thailand down. The banking and real estate is corrupt, the rice scheme is extremely expensive and corrupt with its debt off the books, the Agricultural bank is under water as a result with more to come, the rice export business is ruined, and everywhere you look there are huge messes. Look at the news item now of wanting to remove a lot of land from environmental protection so that a flood project can go ahead. On the surface that would bother some environmentalists, but my first thought was "who is getting paid to push this multi-billion baht project forward in such a way?"

It's always "who is getting paid?" that moves the political process to the fore of the attention of anyone who is actually paying attention.

Let me dismiss the arguments one by one.

1. Corruption may be bad for a boom or good for a boom. It depends on what type of corruption. If your country banned the paying of interest on loans corruption by granting interest bearing loans would be good for the economy. Its the numbers..... If you disagree post your numbers compared to the GDP.

2. The rice production scheme is too small to effect anything. Its the numbers..... If you disagree post your numbers compared to the GDP.

3. Banking and real estate are not corrupt in general and anyone living in Thailand knows this. I can't bribe an official for a loan or to fake real estate papers to any great extent or at least not any more than I could in most countries. Its the numbers..... If you disagree post your numbers compared to the GDP.

4. The agricultural bank of Thailand is not underwater.

Its the numbers..... If you disagree post your numbers compared to the GDP.

You make a lot of claims. All unsupported by facts. If you have any facts, "Its the numbers..... post your numbers compared to the GDP."

The sky is falling the sky is falling, Ya I understand. If it is; its the numbers..... If you disagree post your numbers compared to the GDP.

How many times have you posted the same story from different links about two small Thai government banks in trouble? It is not the end of the financial world.

Its the numbers..... If you disagree post your numbers compared to the GDP.

[Eesat]

No,I was talking about the full Greeks in options trading as in

Delta,Gamma,Theta,Vega and Rho.So I was correct with my assumption you

had no clue!

yeah right genius! i had indeed no clue that the full Greek letters in option

trading have a strong bearing on the value of penthouses which foreigners

can only lease for 30 years but only when cheaper than a 3-br home in

Fulham, West London. shame on me...

Well I must say that your childish cartoon certainly gives gravitas to your "bla bla bla" comment,is that really the best you can do?How old are you,twelve?

FYI,Delta is a way of measuring intrinsic value,or time decay of an underlying asset,which would in this case be a condo purchased on a leasehold

contract.So it's actually a perfect example but this all seems to be going right over your head!

I'm a financier and as an engineer arguing with me over my favourite subject is just going to make you look a fool,which it clearly has already!Answering with "bla bla bla" and silly little kiddy pictures is really rather embarrassing and just shows you to be a particularly uninventive individual,if you can't come up with a logical and relevant argument I suggest that you just don't bother!

[chiangmaikelly]

No,I was talking about the full Greeks in options trading as in

Delta,Gamma,Theta,Vega and Rho.So I was correct with my assumption you

had no clue!

yeah right genius! i had indeed no clue that the full Greek letters in option

trading have a strong bearing on the value of penthouses which foreigners

can only lease for 30 years but only when cheaper than a 3-br home in

Fulham, West London. shame on me...

Well I must say that your childish cartoon certainly gives gravitas to your "bla bla bla" comment,is that really the best you can do?How old are you,twelve?

FYI,Delta is a way of measuring intrinsic value,or time decay of an underlying asset,which would in this case be a condo purchased on a leasehold

contract.So it's actually a perfect example but this all seems to be going right over your head!

I'm a financier and as an engineer arguing with me over my favourite subject is just going to make you look a fool,which it clearly has already!Answering with "bla bla bla" and silly little kiddy pictures is really rather embarrassing and just shows you to be a particularly uninventive individual,if you can't come up with a logical and relevant argument I suggest that you just don't bother!

So, a lot of people purchase condo's on a leasehold in Thailand do they? Because your example makes no sense if they don't. But maybe I am missing something. What does all this talk of Greek stuff have to do with Thailand's boom? Do any of the measurements apply to boom or bust in Thailand?

[lungmi]

No,I was talking about the full Greeks in options trading as in

Delta,Gamma,Theta,Vega and Rho.So I was correct with my assumption you

had no clue!

yeah right genius! i had indeed no clue that the full Greek letters in option

trading have a strong bearing on the value of penthouses which foreigners

can only lease for 30 years but only when cheaper than a 3-br home in

Fulham, West London. shame on me...

Well I must say that your childish cartoon certainly gives gravitas to your "bla bla bla" comment,is that really the best you can do?How old are you,twelve?

FYI,Delta is a way of measuring intrinsic value,or time decay of an underlying asset,which would in this case be a condo purchased on a leasehold

contract.So it's actually a perfect example but this all seems to be going right over your head!

I'm a financier and as an engineer arguing with me over my favourite subject is just going to make you look a fool,which it clearly has already!Answering with "bla bla bla" and silly little kiddy pictures is really rather embarrassing and just shows you to be a particularly uninventive individual,if you can't come up with a logical and relevant argument I suggest that you just don't bother!

So, a lot of people purchase condo's on a leasehold in Thailand do they? Because your example makes no sense if they don't. But maybe I am missing something. What does all this talk of Greek stuff have to do with Thailand's boom? Do any of the measurements apply to boom or bust in Thailand?

It's the Spanish stuff too.

[Thai at Heart]

Without even attempting to speak in economic terms and provide numerous figures, all I can say is Thailand's growth is NOT sustainable and will likely never again reach the highs of the era up to 1997...the country might be doing reasonably well now but in countries with greater political stability, in many cases a more open market, lower wage costs and other attractive features, neighboring countries like Laos and Cambodia will start to reap more benefits of FDI than Thailand will, in coming years. Sure, they still have a lot of catching up to do, but the rates at which their economies have expanded since 1997 is certainly greater than that of the Thai economy. Also, the changes in regulations, the increase in security, tourism, infrastructure etc. are all much more significant than the same changes that have occurred in Thailand over this period - when it comes to political stability and security Thailand has actually gone backwards over this period rather than moved forward. Sure, Thailand started from a much better base but probably as a result of this, doesn't seem to have the drive to push for a transition towards a developed country. At least I have never heard any Thai economist, politician, or anyone talk of such an ambition.

You wrote, "Without even attempting to speak in economic terms and provide numerous figures, all I can say is Thailand's growth is NOT sustainable"

Is Thai Visa some kind of alternative universe where one can discuss the economy without using figures and economic terms?

I understand eveyone wants to bash Thailand but isin't that a bit too outlandish to even consider?

Sustainable would suggest the long term. No country can guarantee long term growth. The world has become so financially interconnected that everyone else's problems are yours.

[GazR]

What goes up must come down it is the law of gravity and economics, also I am sure they were saying a similar thing before the crash in 97!

There's no comparison between now and 1997, in 1997 there was no central bank for starters!

Fact: The actions of the BOT (that's the central bank, dude) were one of the main triggers of the East Asian Financial Crisis.

Oh come on, we all know it was an enormous conspiracy from George Soros to take over Thailand with forcing all those people to borrow USD to build all those condos, golf courses and dodgy investments.

We all know that 'sarcasm is the lowest form of wit'.

[chiang mai]

An interesting take on the effect of Japans QE on other Asian currencies:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10062865/Japan-storms-back-on-weak-yen-but-Asia-trembles.html

[Chao Lao Beach]

em, Boom and Sustainable in the same sentence. I think someone failed ting-lish.

[madmitch]

An interesting take on the effect of Japans QE on other Asian currencies:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10062865/Japan-storms-back-on-weak-yen-but-Asia-trembles.html

I was just reading the thread to see if anyone had posted this article.

Interesting reading.

[chiang mai]

An interesting take on the effect of Japans QE on other Asian currencies:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10062865/Japan-storms-back-on-weak-yen-but-Asia-trembles.html

I was just reading the thread to see if anyone had posted this article.

Interesting reading.

Yes, but just a little scary to think that local banks holding Japanese bonds could go to the wall, the words, "I didn't see that comming" spring to mind!.

[chiang mai]

A thought provoking article:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/10074737/BRICS-risk-sudden-stop-as-dollar-rally-builds.html

[rametindallas]

According to TVF the Thai economy is in dire straits, so i am not sure what this article is all about.

Here's another opinion:

http://www.ubs.wallst.com/ubs/mkt_story.asp?docKey=1329-L3N0E11JK-1&first=0