Thailand Safe From Property Bubble, Says Banker

[Markaew]

12 Thai bashing, respectively irrelevant and/or ridiculous layman's postings. more please

Let me guess, you are the Thai bashing police!

[Frank James]

Lawyers all over the world owe a huge debt of gratitude to the BANKERS, who have supplanted them as the most hated profession.

[Thai at Heart]

I can only answer

The sales office at the end of my road currently has a sign outside offering 110% home loans on new houses.

I'll take a photo and post it, if it's out next time I drive by.

A friend of mine is currently buying a second-hand property for 1.5Mbht, the bank official suggested he upped his loan application to 1.8Mbht to give him a little extra to spend on refurbishing. This was last week.

While browsing at a condo sales office along the Chao Phraya river in Bangkok, my wife and I were approached by a bank sales agent offering us a 104% loan..

If these anecdotes are true, it inevitably leads to problems....

[Markaew]

I took a trip around Bkk today and it's amazing how many new condo projects there are. All mainly around the BTS and MRT.

Are we to assume there is a housing shortage and these condo will fill the vacuum?

Edited May 8, 2013 by Markaew

[Thai at Heart]

I took a trip around Bkk today and it's amazing how many new condo projects there are. All mainly around the BTS and MRT.

Are we to assume there is a housing shortage and these condo will fill the vacuum?

There is likely to be a price reduction to meet demand.

[asupeartea]

A bubble isn't a bubble till in burst.

A good book about bubbles:

THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT

Eight Centuries of Financial Folly

By Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff

[Naam]

12 Thai bashing, respectively irrelevant and/or ridiculous layman's postings. more please

Let me guess, you are the Thai bashing police!

i am just an observer mentioning a fact.

[Thai at Heart]

The moment that mortgages go beyond 90%, it only ends in problems EVERYWHERE.

[a99az]

I'm impressed, I wonder where he gets his figures from. One thing for sure, if a banker said "come on jump in, the waters not cold" you can bet it's freezing and shark infested.

[TroyT]

I can only answer

The sales office at the end of my road currently has a sign outside offering 110% home loans on new houses.

I'll take a photo and post it, if it's out next time I drive by.

A friend of mine is currently buying a second-hand property for 1.5Mbht, the bank official suggested he upped his loan application to 1.8Mbht to give him a little extra to spend on refurbishing. This was last week.

I can only answer

The sales office at the end of my road currently has a sign outside offering 110% home loans on new houses.

I'll take a photo and post it, if it's out next time I drive by.

A friend of mine is currently buying a second-hand property for 1.5Mbht, the bank official suggested he upped his loan application to 1.8Mbht to give him a little extra to spend on refurbishing. This was last week.

That's concerning for the future - very concerning as it appears to be a familiar path to oblivion.

However, anyone aware of such offerings prior to the '97 problem?

[Naam]

Lawyers all over the world owe a huge debt of gratitude to the BANKERS, who have supplanted them as the most hated profession.

should the banker who's opinion is "no property bubble" be hated?

[Naam]

I'm impressed, I wonder where he gets his figures from. One thing for sure, if a banker said "come on jump in, the waters not cold" you can bet it's freezing and shark infested.

you have some experience? or do i have to wonder where you get your facts from?

[chiang mai]

I can only answer

The sales office at the end of my road currently has a sign outside offering 110% home loans on new houses.

I'll take a photo and post it, if it's out next time I drive by.

A friend of mine is currently buying a second-hand property for 1.5Mbht, the bank official suggested he upped his loan application to 1.8Mbht to give him a little extra to spend on refurbishing. This was last week.

>I can only answer

The sales office at the end of my road currently has a sign outside offering 110% home loans on new houses.

I'll take a photo and post it, if it's out next time I drive by.

A friend of mine is currently buying a second-hand property for 1.5Mbht, the bank official suggested he upped his loan application to 1.8Mbht to give him a little extra to spend on refurbishing. This was last week.

That's concerning for the future - very concerning as it appears to be a familiar path to oblivion.

However, anyone aware of such offerings prior to the '97 problem?

No, because the problem in 97 was the currency peg, not 110% consumer mortgages.

[AnotherOneAmerican]

But the recent problems in the US, UK and Europe appear to have been caused by excessive home loans to people with little chance of repaying.

So Thailand will soon be facing the same result, but from a different problem to the 90s crash.

Edited May 8, 2013 by AnotherOneAmerican

[Chris Lawrence]

When bankers are giving advice about Real Estate its time to get out. Wasn't there a problem a few years back with bankers and real estate that resulted in a GFC?

[Naam]

This sounds a lot like the talk that was prevalent in 1997 just as the Thai economy blew up. The increase in household debt, the government sponsored first time car buying spree of last year and the increasing use of credit for everyday expenses for tell a dangerous time.

When the bubble bursts- and all bubbles will eventually- things are going to be tough in Thailand.

and with the bursting bubble the Baht will drop into a financial abyss and all Farangs who suffer because of the strong Baht will jubilate "HALLELUJA AMEN!"

[Thai at Heart]

I can only answer

The sales office at the end of my road currently has a sign outside offering 110% home loans on new houses.

I'll take a photo and post it, if it's out next time I drive by.

A friend of mine is currently buying a second-hand property for 1.5Mbht, the bank official suggested he upped his loan application to 1.8Mbht to give him a little extra to spend on refurbishing. This was last week.

I can only answer

The sales office at the end of my road currently has a sign outside offering 110% home loans on new houses.

I'll take a photo and post it, if it's out next time I drive by.

A friend of mine is currently buying a second-hand property for 1.5Mbht, the bank official suggested he upped his loan application to 1.8Mbht to give him a little extra to spend on refurbishing. This was last week.

That's concerning for the future - very concerning as it appears to be a familiar path to oblivion.

However, anyone aware of such offerings prior to the '97 problem?

You have to understand the difference that is with 97. Then a large percentage of loans to developers were denominated in USD, believing that the baht was utterly fixed. That is a big difference now.

Either way, developers offering 100% mortgages is a very bad sign.

[Naam]

This song was sung before! Thai official confirm sometime ago that it is o.k. to tell a lie for the good so don't panic while they move their assets to protect themselves. If they tell you it is safe that means it isn't? I myself am waiting for the whole thing to burst so the Baht falls and falls again and again.

here we go! the truth, only the truth, and nothing but the truth.

"LORD let there be a bubble, let it burst and my <insert home currency> will buy more Chang."

[chiang mai]

But the recent problems in the US, UK and Europe appear to have been caused by excessive home loans to people with little chance of repaying.

So Thailand will soon be facing the same result, but from a different problem to the 90s crash.

Who says it's excessive lending, it's a very active and very bouyant credit market but it started froma very low base, nobody has said it's excessive lending. Also, the non-performing loans all point to a very stable lending environment, regardless of what you might think when you see the odd developer offering 110% loans. I mean really, if things were as bad as NS paints the symptoms would show uo somewhere in the statistics (not the opinion by nobody writers) but instead what we see articles such as the one at the start of this thread and others, telling us that NPL's are actually reducing!

[Thai at Heart]

But the recent problems in the US, UK and Europe appear to have been caused by excessive home loans to people with little chance of repaying.

So Thailand will soon be facing the same result, but from a different problem to the 90s crash.

Who says it's excessive lending, it's a very active and very bouyant credit market but it started froma very low base, nobody has said it's excessive lending. Also, the non-performing loans all point to a very stable lending environment, regardless of what you might think when you see the odd developer offering 110% loans. I mean really, if things were as bad as NS paints the symptoms would show uo somewhere in the statistics (not the opinion by nobody writers) but instead what we see articles such as the one at the start of this thread and others, telling us that NPL's are actually reducing!

Look. There hasn't been a successful outcome on any property market in the world where beyond 90% of lending for mortgages had been sustainable.

80 to 85% is a practical long term borrowing maximum. Over 90% should be outlawed globally, since it creates so many massive long term problems. These are peoples homes not cars.

Edited May 8, 2013 by Thai at Heart

[AnotherOneAmerican]

But the recent problems in the US, UK and Europe appear to have been caused by excessive home loans to people with little chance of repaying.

So Thailand will soon be facing the same result, but from a different problem to the 90s crash.

Who says it's excessive lending, it's a very active and very bouyant credit market but it started froma very low base, nobody has said it's excessive lending. Also, the non-performing loans all point to a very stable lending environment, regardless of what you might think when you see the odd developer offering 110% loans. I mean really, if things were as bad as NS paints the symptoms would show uo somewhere in the statistics (not the opinion by nobody writers) but instead what we see articles such as the one at the start of this thread and others, telling us that NPL's are actually reducing!

There is no free press in Thailand, you can't believe what you are told, you can only trust what you see.

[chiang mai]

But the recent problems in the US, UK and Europe appear to have been caused by excessive home loans to people with little chance of repaying.

So Thailand will soon be facing the same result, but from a different problem to the 90s crash.

Who says it's excessive lending, it's a very active and very bouyant credit market but it started froma very low base, nobody has said it's excessive lending. Also, the non-performing loans all point to a very stable lending environment, regardless of what you might think when you see the odd developer offering 110% loans. I mean really, if things were as bad as NS paints the symptoms would show uo somewhere in the statistics (not the opinion by nobody writers) but instead what we see articles such as the one at the start of this thread and others, telling us that NPL's are actually reducing!

Look. There hasn't been a successful outcome on any property market in the world where beyond 90% of lending for mortgages had been sustainable.

80 to 85% is a practical long term borrowing maximum. Over 90% should be outlawed globally, since it creates so many massive long term problems. These are peoples homes not cars.

If you're asking me whether I think that 110% property loans are a good idea my answer is of course not. If you're asking me whether I think there's a property bubble currently and that people are massively over extended, my answer is that there is no statistical evidence to suggest that is the case, on the contrary, the evidence points the opposite way - sorry but it does, credit is being granted and people are paying the money back, end of.

[oops]

Being an ex mortgage broker,living in Thailand.....broker then everyone else because there wasn't a bubble

in America either . I would agree that there isn't any bubble here......nope. .

It's funny when I drive through Bangkok and look up, you would think that the streets would be

Illuminated by the lights from the condo's soaring over our heads and hosting ever meter of land.

But I am assuming now, just assuming that sense it looks like total black out instead of wall to wall lights

that most of these home owners spent so much money for property that they can't afford to turn on the lights in their rooms

I mean it's not like I drive up and down the streets all night long counting lights.. but I have asked myself this question about the real estate here.

Is it boom or a covered up bust

So every-time I see something here that says after Dark,I laugh, and just think about how it looks like a total black out when you look up, in fact I see more

stars in the sky than I do lights on in peoples rooms.....oh wait, I can't really see the sky with so many Condos,

That explains the total black out

[chiang mai]

But the recent problems in the US, UK and Europe appear to have been caused by excessive home loans to people with little chance of repaying.

So Thailand will soon be facing the same result, but from a different problem to the 90s crash.

Who says it's excessive lending, it's a very active and very bouyant credit market but it started froma very low base, nobody has said it's excessive lending. Also, the non-performing loans all point to a very stable lending environment, regardless of what you might think when you see the odd developer offering 110% loans. I mean really, if things were as bad as NS paints the symptoms would show uo somewhere in the statistics (not the opinion by nobody writers) but instead what we see articles such as the one at the start of this thread and others, telling us that NPL's are actually reducing!

There is no free press in Thailand, you can't believe what you are told, you can only trust what you see.

Ahah. a conspiracy theory in the making perhaps, it's all a big plot to mislead and really agent NS and one or two other westerners can see the real picture, gotcha!

[Thai at Heart]

But the recent problems in the US, UK and Europe appear to have been caused by excessive home loans to people with little chance of repaying.

So Thailand will soon be facing the same result, but from a different problem to the 90s crash.

Who says it's excessive lending, it's a very active and very bouyant credit market but it started froma very low base, nobody has said it's excessive lending. Also, the non-performing loans all point to a very stable lending environment, regardless of what you might think when you see the odd developer offering 110% loans. I mean really, if things were as bad as NS paints the symptoms would show uo somewhere in the statistics (not the opinion by nobody writers) but instead what we see articles such as the one at the start of this thread and others, telling us that NPL's are actually reducing!

Look. There hasn't been a successful outcome on any property market in the world where beyond 90% of lending for mortgages had been sustainable.

80 to 85% is a practical long term borrowing maximum. Over 90% should be outlawed globally, since it creates so many massive long term problems. These are peoples homes not cars.

If you're asking me whether I think that 110% property loans are a good idea my answer is of course not. If you're asking me whether I think there's a property bubble currently and that people are massively over extended, my answer is that there is no statistical evidence to suggest that is the case, on the contrary, the evidence points the opposite way - sorry but it does, credit is being granted and people are paying the money back, end of.

No, that is as maybe. Just pointing out that add much as I do believe that Thailand will not go to crap, it is not a good sign that developers are offering over 100% mortgages, because it stretches the repayment ability of any buyer beyond a statistical limit.

So, 100+ mortgages are definitely not good. If you don't have 500 k to put down on 5mn, (essentially chump change in terms of global property value), the loan would not be granted.

I stand by my economic opinion that anything much beyond a 15% down payment on mortgageb loans is unsustainable in the long term. And 25 years is pretty long term.

[NeverSure]

But the recent problems in the US, UK and Europe appear to have been caused by excessive home loans to people with little chance of repaying.

So Thailand will soon be facing the same result, but from a different problem to the 90s crash.

Who says it's excessive lending, it's a very active and very bouyant credit market but it started froma very low base, nobody has said it's excessive lending. Also, the non-performing loans all point to a very stable lending environment, regardless of what you might think when you see the odd developer offering 110% loans. I mean really, if things were as bad as NS paints the symptoms would show uo somewhere in the statistics (not the opinion by nobody writers) but instead what we see articles such as the one at the start of this thread and others, telling us that NPL's are actually reducing!

So, you're completely content to blindly follow the "article at the start of this thread" which is quoting a Thai banker, rather than look at what's under your nose.

If you have that much faith in the banksters, you can stay on the sinking ship.

Thai banker as the unimpeachable source.

[VINCENT2012]

i know about bubble...i saw it coming and i run away just in time from the spanish one ten years ago!

i only can say that the banks here are very realistic.they make business without risk and i agree with this kind of politic. they controll the whole thing very strickly .well many people will say it is bad for the economy and for the consumation , but in my opinion thats what all banks from usa and europe should do.

i am sick to see the bankers taking one way or another all the money from everybody who have no ideas,they ruin them and after the governments tell you that you have to pay again to keep them running and working...we are totally mad to accept this.

anyway way ....never trust the banks! read very well what you sign

[Thai at Heart]

But, then it begs the question will it ruin the currency.

Nope. They have 3% of leeway to open the credit to keep it moving.

[chiang mai]

But the recent problems in the US, UK and Europe appear to have been caused by excessive home loans to people with little chance of repaying.

So Thailand will soon be facing the same result, but from a different problem to the 90s crash.

Who says it's excessive lending, it's a very active and very bouyant credit market but it started froma very low base, nobody has said it's excessive lending. Also, the non-performing loans all point to a very stable lending environment, regardless of what you might think when you see the odd developer offering 110% loans. I mean really, if things were as bad as NS paints the symptoms would show uo somewhere in the statistics (not the opinion by nobody writers) but instead what we see articles such as the one at the start of this thread and others, telling us that NPL's are actually reducing!

So, you're completely content to blindly follow the "article at the start of this thread" which is quoting a Thai banker, rather than look at what's under your nose.

If you have that much faith in the banksters, you can stay on the sinking ship.

Thai banker as the unimpeachable source.

For the hundreth time, go study the NPL numbers of the Thai banks posted by the World Bank, end of story.

[chiang mai]

But the recent problems in the US, UK and Europe appear to have been caused by excessive home loans to people with little chance of repaying.

So Thailand will soon be facing the same result, but from a different problem to the 90s crash.

Who says it's excessive lending, it's a very active and very bouyant credit market but it started froma very low base, nobody has said it's excessive lending. Also, the non-performing loans all point to a very stable lending environment, regardless of what you might think when you see the odd developer offering 110% loans. I mean really, if things were as bad as NS paints the symptoms would show uo somewhere in the statistics (not the opinion by nobody writers) but instead what we see articles such as the one at the start of this thread and others, telling us that NPL's are actually reducing!

So, you're completely content to blindly follow the "article at the start of this thread" which is quoting a Thai banker, rather than look at what's under your nose.

If you have that much faith in the banksters, you can stay on the sinking ship.

Thai banker as the unimpeachable source.

But you're a career banker (now retired) and you're asking this forum to view you as an unimpeachable source!