Thailand Safe From Property Bubble, Says Banker

[dcutman]

NeverSure

These are the same geniuses who tell me there is no real estate bubble when my own two lying eyes know better.

i heard real estate bubble when when prices were skyrocketing and i hear real estate bubble when there is an oversupply (prices have been and are still dropping) e.g. in Thailand. without a common denominator or definition of "bubble" a discussion makes no sense.

in this context i don't understand the ridiculous rumour that real estate prices have risen 39% above estimated inflation during the last years. i have no idea what the markets in other concentrated urban areas are doing but i am rather well informed what's going on in the "greater Pattaya" area. here we have an oversupply bubble for both detached homes and condos with prices well below cost of new construction and far below construction cost prevailing 8-9 years ago.

some few exceptions (luxury condos prime seafront) exist as far as prices are concerned. however, the occupation/sold quota is extremely low.

Its obvious you dont have access to Google, because you never have supply a link to your claims, and not even sure how you come up with some of this stuff.

http://www.phuketgazette.net/thailandnews/2013/Land-prices-upcountry-doubling-20542.html

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/business/Land-prices-soar-as-new-projects-launched-30201464.html

http://www.joelizzerd.com/latest/pattaya-hua-hin-and-phuket-land-prices-keep-rising

[chiang mai]

Just two points to keep in mind, in order to keep these things in perspective:

The 6 billion is Baht and not Dollars, 6 Bill sounds a lot but 215 million Dollars sounds a lot less, in banking terms.

Also, Islamic Bank, Government Savings Bank and Krung Thai are owned by the Thai governement and are not managed/monitored by the BOT. It's therefore pretty safe to suggest that what ever the state of the finances/balance sheets of those three banks is they not representative of the Thai banking sector as a whole.

Thailand is already running huge deficits and having to borrow to pay for it. Where do they get the money to bail out those banks, and the Agricultural Bank for the rice scheme?

And who say's it isn't representative of the whole? How do we know that? We see the empty houses and condos and we know that banks are up to their eyeballs in them. We know that banks are still carrying unrealized losses from 1997. We can sense that sales and values of real estate have already slipped.

How much do we need to hear?

Oh dear, I hope we're not going back down that same road again NS!

It isn't representative of the whole because the NPL's of the remaining banks, those under the wing of BOT, report their NPL's and these are published by BOT, and as we both know the NPL's are at an acceptable levels and falling, that's how we know.

What unrealized losses are the banks still carrying from 1997, there are no unrelaised losses yet to be declared?!

"We can sense that sales and values of real estate have already slipped", we can also sense that we may soon win the lottery and that it might snow in Bangkok tomorrow, that "sense" therefore is meaningless and without value!

"Thailand is already running huge deficits", and as a percentage of GDP these amount to what? And when compared to the deficit as a percentage of GDP of Western countries currently that is excllent/appalling, favorable/unfavorable (delete as nexcessary)

Please note that if you don't supply precise answers to the above the answers will be supplied for you and posted.

[chiangmaikelly]

Just two points to keep in mind, in order to keep these things in perspective:

The 6 billion is Baht and not Dollars, 6 Bill sounds a lot but 215 million Dollars sounds a lot less, in banking terms.

Also, Islamic Bank, Government Savings Bank and Krung Thai are owned by the Thai governement and are not managed/monitored by the BOT. It's therefore pretty safe to suggest that what ever the state of the finances/balance sheets of those three banks is they not representative of the Thai banking sector as a whole.

Thailand is already running huge deficits and having to borrow to pay for it. Where do they get the money to bail out those banks, and the Agricultural Bank for the rice scheme?

And who say's it isn't representative of the whole? How do we know that? We see the empty houses and condos and we know that banks are up to their eyeballs in them. We know that banks are still carrying unrealized losses from 1997. We can sense that sales and values of real estate have already slipped.

How much do we need to hear?

You should tell the truth. "Thailand recorded a Government Budget deficit equal to 4.10 percent of the country's Gross Domestic Product in 2012. Government Budget in Thailand is reported by the Ministry of Finance, Government of Thailand.Historically, from 2003 until 2012, Thailand Government Budget averaged-0.81 Percent of GDP reaching an all time high of 2.50 Percent of GDP inDecember of 2005 and a record low of -4.80 Percent of GDP in December of 2009.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/thailand/government-budget

By any stretch of the imagination Thailand is not running huge deficits.

[chiang mai]

NeverSure

These are the same geniuses who tell me there is no real estate bubble when my own two lying eyes know better.

i heard real estate bubble when when prices were skyrocketing and i hear real estate bubble when there is an oversupply (prices have been and are still dropping) e.g. in Thailand. without a common denominator or definition of "bubble" a discussion makes no sense.

in this context i don't understand the ridiculous rumour that real estate prices have risen 39% above estimated inflation during the last years. i have no idea what the markets in other concentrated urban areas are doing but i am rather well informed what's going on in the "greater Pattaya" area. here we have an oversupply bubble for both detached homes and condos with prices well below cost of new construction and far below construction cost prevailing 8-9 years ago.

some few exceptions (luxury condos prime seafront) exist as far as prices are concerned. however, the occupation/sold quota is extremely low.

Its obvious you dont have access to Google, because you never have supply a link to your claims, and not even sure how you come up with some of this stuff.

http://www.phuketgazette.net/thailandnews/2013/Land-prices-upcountry-doubling-20542.html

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/business/Land-prices-soar-as-new-projects-launched-30201464.html

http://www.joelizzerd.com/latest/pattaya-hua-hin-and-phuket-land-prices-keep-rising

Your quotes/links are from a property developers blog, the Nation (which is notorious pro-property development) and a farang newspaper in Phuket, hardly the world centre of expertise on this subject I would suggest - fact is that you have offered three opinions as evidence and nothing more hence I suggest the case is unproven.

[NeverSure]

NeverSure

These are the same geniuses who tell me there is no real estate bubble when my own two lying eyes know better.

i heard real estate bubble when when prices were skyrocketing and i hear real estate bubble when there is an oversupply (prices have been and are still dropping) e.g. in Thailand. without a common denominator or definition of "bubble" a discussion makes no sense.

in this context i don't understand the ridiculous rumour that real estate prices have risen 39% above estimated inflation during the last years. i have no idea what the markets in other concentrated urban areas are doing but i am rather well informed what's going on in the "greater Pattaya" area. here we have an oversupply bubble for both detached homes and condos with prices well below cost of new construction and far below construction cost prevailing 8-9 years ago.

some few exceptions (luxury condos prime seafront) exist as far as prices are concerned. however, the occupation/sold quota is extremely low.

Naam, I appreciate the information. IIRC, that article said that real estate prices had risen a total of 39%, not above inflation. That number I can believe just from pricing it at asking prices. But I don't know that the article claimed sales were good at that price increase. I think Thais do have a culture of setting a price and taking a bath rather than reducing prices. Part of that may have to do with laws that prohibit banks from selling collateral for less than what's owed. This is also why some are still sitting on empty condos from 1997.

Banks have been awash in profits from the real estate boom - up until now. With the generally accepted culture of corruption, I don't know who to believe.

I do see a day of reckoning if they just keep building, borrowing, and not selling. That's what I see. Add to that the pervasive leaks of bank problems including the Agricultural Bank for the rice scheme losses, and I see trouble.

[NeverSure]

Just two points to keep in mind, in order to keep these things in perspective:

The 6 billion is Baht and not Dollars, 6 Bill sounds a lot but 215 million Dollars sounds a lot less, in banking terms.

Also, Islamic Bank, Government Savings Bank and Krung Thai are owned by the Thai governement and are not managed/monitored by the BOT. It's therefore pretty safe to suggest that what ever the state of the finances/balance sheets of those three banks is they not representative of the Thai banking sector as a whole.

Thailand is already running huge deficits and having to borrow to pay for it. Where do they get the money to bail out those banks, and the Agricultural Bank for the rice scheme?

And who say's it isn't representative of the whole? How do we know that? We see the empty houses and condos and we know that banks are up to their eyeballs in them. We know that banks are still carrying unrealized losses from 1997. We can sense that sales and values of real estate have already slipped.

How much do we need to hear?

You should tell the truth. "Thailand recorded a Government Budget deficit equal to 4.10 percent of the country's Gross Domestic Product in 2012. Government Budget in Thailand is reported by the Ministry of Finance, Government of Thailand.Historically, from 2003 until 2012, Thailand Government Budget averaged-0.81 Percent of GDP reaching an all time high of 2.50 Percent of GDP inDecember of 2005 and a record low of -4.80 Percent of GDP in December of 2009.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/thailand/government-budget

By any stretch of the imagination Thailand is not running huge deficits.

Kelly, you are dealing with a corrupt government. I suppose you believe everything they tell you? They have hidden the losses from the rice scheme off-budget. Now, rice has was historically been about 5 - 7% of GDP but they ruined that market. They ruined it by believing they were clever enough to set the world's rice price. These are not real bright people. Now, in their corruption, they have put the cost of that on the Agricultural Bank which is sitting on "loans" it's made to pay for it. But that money has to be paid back by, you guessed it, the government. Not only that, they have promised to continue this for several more years.

Now do the math. You lose 5% of GDP but the GDP doesn't belong to the government. Only the taxes collected do. So the loss as a percentage of the government's income is far greater. Now add to that another new cost which is storing, moving and holding that rice.

I'll tell you this, Kelly. Anyone who is so far out of touch with reality as to develop and persist in this rice scheme, and then to force a massive percentage increase in the minimum wage overnight on businesses, should not be in charge of any money. Much less should they be in charge of banks or lending to real estate developers. There is corruption in the rice scheme and corruption in the real estate loans and...

Just think for a minute, Kelly. Someone is making a lot of money from what is obviously a failed rice scheme, and some people have been making a lot of money from this real estate development. Look around. Units are empty en mass but more and more come along. New shopping centers are being built and something has to wind up being a ghost town. The speed of building is far outstripping demand or population increase. You might argue that "the Chinese and Russians will buy the houses and condos." Well, they haven't, and they can't fill those new business properties either.

You don't have to believe me now, but we'll see the day when it's happened.

[chiang mai]

Readers who are following this, yet another, "I hate Thailand and am going to trash it at any opportunity" thread should understand that this is but one of a series over recent weeks. Each thread repeats the same boring mantra that one or more aspects of the Thai economy are near breaking point and that we should all sell up and get out as soon as possible lest we all lose everything we posses. None of the claims, not a single one, is ever supported by any factual or statistical data from a reliable source, typically the only evidence amounts to extracts from the (unaccredited) blogs of other unknowns, articles from the Nation and Bangkok Post and from obscure investment magazines.

Readers should understand that these opinions (and that's what is being offered to you, not fact in any proven way) are written by a retired banker from the US who doesn't even live in Thailand and presumably writes similar threads for PanamaVisa, MexicoVisa and the like, exactly what his objectives might be is anyones guess. It's absolutely certain however that the objective is not to undertake an intellegent exploration of the subject matter in order to arrive at a well thought through and fully supported conclusion, an intense dislike of Thailand or perhaps simple boredom might be places to beginhence large pinches of salt are required whilst reading..

[chiangmaikelly]

Just two points to keep in mind, in order to keep these things in perspective:

The 6 billion is Baht and not Dollars, 6 Bill sounds a lot but 215 million Dollars sounds a lot less, in banking terms.

Also, Islamic Bank, Government Savings Bank and Krung Thai are owned by the Thai governement and are not managed/monitored by the BOT. It's therefore pretty safe to suggest that what ever the state of the finances/balance sheets of those three banks is they not representative of the Thai banking sector as a whole.

Thailand is already running huge deficits and having to borrow to pay for it. Where do they get the money to bail out those banks, and the Agricultural Bank for the rice scheme?

And who say's it isn't representative of the whole? How do we know that? We see the empty houses and condos and we know that banks are up to their eyeballs in them. We know that banks are still carrying unrealized losses from 1997. We can sense that sales and values of real estate have already slipped.

How much do we need to hear?

You should tell the truth. "Thailand recorded a Government Budget deficit equal to 4.10 percent of the country's Gross Domestic Product in 2012. Government Budget in Thailand is reported by the Ministry of Finance, Government of Thailand.Historically, from 2003 until 2012, Thailand Government Budget averaged-0.81 Percent of GDP reaching an all time high of 2.50 Percent of GDP inDecember of 2005 and a record low of -4.80 Percent of GDP in December of 2009.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/thailand/government-budget

By any stretch of the imagination Thailand is not running huge deficits.

Kelly, you are dealing with a corrupt government. I suppose you believe everything they tell you? They have hidden the losses from the rice scheme off-budget. Now, rice has was historically been about 5 - 7% of GDP but they ruined that market. They ruined it by believing they were clever enough to set the world's rice price. These are not real bright people. Now, in their corruption, they have put the cost of that on the Agricultural Bank which is sitting on "loans" it's made to pay for it. But that money has to be paid back by, you guessed it, the government. Not only that, they have promised to continue this for several more years.

Now do the math. You lose 5% of GDP but the GDP doesn't belong to the government. Only the taxes collected do. So the loss as a percentage of the government's income is far greater. Now add to that another new cost which is storing, moving and holding that rice.

I'll tell you this, Kelly. Anyone who is so far out of touch with reality as to develop and persist in this rice scheme, and then to force a massive percentage increase in the minimum wage overnight on businesses, should not be in charge of any money. Much less should they be in charge of banks or lending to real estate developers. There is corruption in the rice scheme and corruption in the real estate loans and...

Just think for a minute, Kelly. Someone is making a lot of money from what is obviously a failed rice scheme, and some people have been making a lot of money from this real estate development. Look around. Units are empty en mass but more and more come along. New shopping centers are being built and something has to wind up being a ghost town. The speed of building is far outstripping demand or population increase. You might argue that "the Chinese and Russians will buy the houses and condos." Well, they haven't, and they can't fill those new business properties either.

You don't have to believe me now, but we'll see the day when it's happened.

An index of 100 is defined as the point where a median-income household has exactly enough income to qualify for the purchase of a median-priced existing single-family home.

Thailand 78

Indonesia 28

Hong Kong 66

Vietnam 31

http://www.numbeo.com/property-investment/rankings_by_country.jsp

As far as your other information about rice pledging and corruption they have nothing to do with the property market nor does the failure of a couple of small government owned banks.

If you want to debate something about a property bubble present some facts about price to earnings ratio of property or real information about numbers of houses for sale or something more than vague rumors of wanna be expats posting from other countries or ancient curmudgeons relating drive by views when they go to the store once a month.

Give us something about occupancy rates or rental income or something about real estate instead of the old anti Thai stuff that you don't like the current government. Coup, schmoo who cares. I've been through 3 and they didn't even interfere with that evenings date.

Past behaviour is always the best predictor of future performance in women, real estate, war, stock markets and getting a good haircut.

Edited May 10, 2013 by chiangmaikelly

[MikeOboe57]

Readers who are following this, yet another, "I hate Thailand and am going to trash it at any opportunity" thread should understand that this is but one of a series over recent weeks. Each thread repeats the same boring mantra that one or more aspects of the Thai economy are near breaking point and that we should all sell up and get out as soon as possible lest we all lose everything we posses. None of the claims, not a single one, is ever supported by any factual or statistical data from a reliable source, typically the only evidence amounts to extracts from the (unaccredited) blogs of other unknowns, articles from the Nation and Bangkok Post and from obscure investment magazines.

Readers should understand that these opinions (and that's what is being offered to you, not fact in any proven way) are written by a retired banker from the US who doesn't even live in Thailand and presumably writes similar threads for PanamaVisa, MexicoVisa and the like, exactly what his objectives might be is anyones guess. It's absolutely certain however that the objective is not to undertake an intellegent exploration of the subject matter in order to arrive at a well thought through and fully supported conclusion, an intense dislike of Thailand or perhaps simple boredom might be places to beginhence large pinches of salt are required whilst reading..

What a cheap shot.

[Thai at Heart]

Just two points to keep in mind, in order to keep these things in perspective:

The 6 billion is Baht and not Dollars, 6 Bill sounds a lot but 215 million Dollars sounds a lot less, in banking terms.

Also, Islamic Bank, Government Savings Bank and Krung Thai are owned by the Thai governement and are not managed/monitored by the BOT. It's therefore pretty safe to suggest that what ever the state of the finances/balance sheets of those three banks is they not representative of the Thai banking sector as a whole.

Thailand is already running huge deficits and having to borrow to pay for it. Where do they get the money to bail out those banks, and the Agricultural Bank for the rice scheme?

And who say's it isn't representative of the whole? How do we know that? We see the empty houses and condos and we know that banks are up to their eyeballs in them. We know that banks are still carrying unrealized losses from 1997. We can sense that sales and values of real estate have already slipped.

How much do we need to hear?

You should tell the truth. "Thailand recorded a Government Budget deficit equal to 4.10 percent of the country's Gross Domestic Product in 2012. Government Budget in Thailand is reported by the Ministry of Finance, Government of Thailand.Historically, from 2003 until 2012, Thailand Government Budget averaged-0.81 Percent of GDP reaching an all time high of 2.50 Percent of GDP inDecember of 2005 and a record low of -4.80 Percent of GDP in December of 2009.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/thailand/government-budget

By any stretch of the imagination Thailand is not running huge deficits.

Kelly, you are dealing with a corrupt government. I suppose you believe everything they tell you? They have hidden the losses from the rice scheme off-budget. Now, rice has was historically been about 5 - 7% of GDP but they ruined that market. They ruined it by believing they were clever enough to set the world's rice price. These are not real bright people. Now, in their corruption, they have put the cost of that on the Agricultural Bank which is sitting on "loans" it's made to pay for it. But that money has to be paid back by, you guessed it, the government. Not only that, they have promised to continue this for several more years.

Now do the math. You lose 5% of GDP but the GDP doesn't belong to the government. Only the taxes collected do. So the loss as a percentage of the government's income is far greater. Now add to that another new cost which is storing, moving and holding that rice.

I'll tell you this, Kelly. Anyone who is so far out of touch with reality as to develop and persist in this rice scheme, and then to force a massive percentage increase in the minimum wage overnight on businesses, should not be in charge of any money. Much less should they be in charge of banks or lending to real estate developers. There is corruption in the rice scheme and corruption in the real estate loans and...

Just think for a minute, Kelly. Someone is making a lot of money from what is obviously a failed rice scheme, and some people have been making a lot of money from this real estate development. Look around. Units are empty en mass but more and more come along. New shopping centers are being built and something has to wind up being a ghost town. The speed of building is far outstripping demand or population increase. You might argue that "the Chinese and Russians will buy the houses and condos." Well, they haven't, and they can't fill those new business properties either.

You don't have to believe me now, but we'll see the day when it's happened.

Rice production does not represent 7% of GDP. ALL agriculture is 8%.

[chiangmaikelly]

Thailand is already running huge deficits and having to borrow to pay for it. Where do they get the money to bail out those banks, and the Agricultural Bank for the rice scheme?

And who say's it isn't representative of the whole? How do we know that? We see the empty houses and condos and we know that banks are up to their eyeballs in them. We know that banks are still carrying unrealized losses from 1997. We can sense that sales and values of real estate have already slipped.

How much do we need to hear?

You should tell the truth. "Thailand recorded a Government Budget deficit equal to 4.10 percent of the country's Gross Domestic Product in 2012. Government Budget in Thailand is reported by the Ministry of Finance, Government of Thailand.Historically, from 2003 until 2012, Thailand Government Budget averaged-0.81 Percent of GDP reaching an all time high of 2.50 Percent of GDP inDecember of 2005 and a record low of -4.80 Percent of GDP in December of 2009.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/thailand/government-budget

By any stretch of the imagination Thailand is not running huge deficits.

Kelly, you are dealing with a corrupt government. I suppose you believe everything they tell you? They have hidden the losses from the rice scheme off-budget. Now, rice has was historically been about 5 - 7% of GDP but they ruined that market. They ruined it by believing they were clever enough to set the world's rice price. These are not real bright people. Now, in their corruption, they have put the cost of that on the Agricultural Bank which is sitting on "loans" it's made to pay for it. But that money has to be paid back by, you guessed it, the government. Not only that, they have promised to continue this for several more years.

Now do the math. You lose 5% of GDP but the GDP doesn't belong to the government. Only the taxes collected do. So the loss as a percentage of the government's income is far greater. Now add to that another new cost which is storing, moving and holding that rice.

I'll tell you this, Kelly. Anyone who is so far out of touch with reality as to develop and persist in this rice scheme, and then to force a massive percentage increase in the minimum wage overnight on businesses, should not be in charge of any money. Much less should they be in charge of banks or lending to real estate developers. There is corruption in the rice scheme and corruption in the real estate loans and...

Just think for a minute, Kelly. Someone is making a lot of money from what is obviously a failed rice scheme, and some people have been making a lot of money from this real estate development. Look around. Units are empty en mass but more and more come along. New shopping centers are being built and something has to wind up being a ghost town. The speed of building is far outstripping demand or population increase. You might argue that "the Chinese and Russians will buy the houses and condos." Well, they haven't, and they can't fill those new business properties either.

You don't have to believe me now, but we'll see the day when it's happened.

Rice production does not represent 7% of GDP. ALL agriculture is 8%.

What an accurate shot.

[chiang mai]

Readers who are following this, yet another, "I hate Thailand and am going to trash it at any opportunity" thread should understand that this is but one of a series over recent weeks. Each thread repeats the same boring mantra that one or more aspects of the Thai economy are near breaking point and that we should all sell up and get out as soon as possible lest we all lose everything we posses. None of the claims, not a single one, is ever supported by any factual or statistical data from a reliable source, typically the only evidence amounts to extracts from the (unaccredited) blogs of other unknowns, articles from the Nation and Bangkok Post and from obscure investment magazines.

Readers should understand that these opinions (and that's what is being offered to you, not fact in any proven way) are written by a retired banker from the US who doesn't even live in Thailand and presumably writes similar threads for PanamaVisa, MexicoVisa and the like, exactly what his objectives might be is anyones guess. It's absolutely certain however that the objective is not to undertake an intellegent exploration of the subject matter in order to arrive at a well thought through and fully supported conclusion, an intense dislike of Thailand or perhaps simple boredom might be places to beginhence large pinches of salt are required whilst reading..

What a cheap shot.

Did you hear the one about Icelands GDP being greater than Thailands because the people are wealthier, I kid you not it was presented as fact! And now we've got the rice program costing 7% of GDP, there's a major disconnect between what's being suggested and reality, that's the problem.

[AnotherOneAmerican]

Readers who are following this, yet another, "I hate Thailand and am going to trash it at any opportunity" thread should understand that this is but one of a series over recent weeks. Each thread repeats the same boring mantra that one or more aspects of the Thai economy are near breaking point and that we should all sell up and get out as soon as possible lest we all lose everything we posses. None of the claims, not a single one, is ever supported by any factual or statistical data from a reliable source, typically the only evidence amounts to extracts from the (unaccredited) blogs of other unknowns, articles from the Nation and Bangkok Post and from obscure investment magazines.

Readers should understand that these opinions (and that's what is being offered to you, not fact in any proven way) are written by a retired banker from the US who doesn't even live in Thailand and presumably writes similar threads for PanamaVisa, MexicoVisa and the like, exactly what his objectives might be is anyones guess. It's absolutely certain however that the objective is not to undertake an intellegent exploration of the subject matter in order to arrive at a well thought through and fully supported conclusion, an intense dislike of Thailand or perhaps simple boredom might be places to beginhence large pinches of salt are required whilst reading..

I don't hate Thailand, it is my country and I live here.

I am seeing a similar problem to the USA property market collapse, in the making.

I can see the empty condos, I can see the vacant houses, I can see the sub-prime loans being offered all around me.

I am currently in the process of buying a house, not for profit but to live in.

It doesn't matter if the price goes up or down, I will be living in it.

(How big a loss could I make on a $60k property anyway).

I have no intention of 'selling up', but neither will I be making any $$$$s investments in the Thai property market.

I also wouldn't be buying a condo, which seem hugely overpriced to me, at the moment.

I understand that as foreigners you have fewer options to buy, just be careful.

As for your 'lack of statistical data',

Was there much of that about in the USA before the crash?

Was there much of that before the 1990s Thai financial problem?

[chiangmaikelly]

Readers who are following this, yet another, "I hate Thailand and am going to trash it at any opportunity" thread should understand that this is but one of a series over recent weeks. Each thread repeats the same boring mantra that one or more aspects of the Thai economy are near breaking point and that we should all sell up and get out as soon as possible lest we all lose everything we posses. None of the claims, not a single one, is ever supported by any factual or statistical data from a reliable source, typically the only evidence amounts to extracts from the (unaccredited) blogs of other unknowns, articles from the Nation and Bangkok Post and from obscure investment magazines.

Readers should understand that these opinions (and that's what is being offered to you, not fact in any proven way) are written by a retired banker from the US who doesn't even live in Thailand and presumably writes similar threads for PanamaVisa, MexicoVisa and the like, exactly what his objectives might be is anyones guess. It's absolutely certain however that the objective is not to undertake an intellegent exploration of the subject matter in order to arrive at a well thought through and fully supported conclusion, an intense dislike of Thailand or perhaps simple boredom might be places to beginhence large pinches of salt are required whilst reading..

I don't hate Thailand, it is my country and I live here.

I am seeing a similar problem to the USA property market collapse, in the making.

I can see the empty condos, I can see the vacant houses, I can see the sub-prime loans being offered all around me.

I am currently in the process of buying a house, not for profit but to live in.

It doesn't matter if the price goes up or down, I will be living in it.

(How big a loss could I make on a $60k property anyway).

I have no intention of 'selling up', but neither will I be making any $$$$s investments in the Thai property market.

I also wouldn't be buying a condo, which seem hugely overpriced to me, at the moment.

I understand that as foreigners you have fewer options to buy, just be careful.

As for your 'lack of statistical data',

Was there much of that about in the USA before the crash?

Was there much of that before the 1990s Thai financial problem?

What did you see that made the USA property collapse that you are now seeing in Thailand?

Edited May 10, 2013 by chiangmaikelly

[AnotherOneAmerican]

Readers who are following this, yet another, "I hate Thailand and am going to trash it at any opportunity" thread should understand that this is but one of a series over recent weeks. Each thread repeats the same boring mantra that one or more aspects of the Thai economy are near breaking point and that we should all sell up and get out as soon as possible lest we all lose everything we posses. None of the claims, not a single one, is ever supported by any factual or statistical data from a reliable source, typically the only evidence amounts to extracts from the (unaccredited) blogs of other unknowns, articles from the Nation and Bangkok Post and from obscure investment magazines.

Readers should understand that these opinions (and that's what is being offered to you, not fact in any proven way) are written by a retired banker from the US who doesn't even live in Thailand and presumably writes similar threads for PanamaVisa, MexicoVisa and the like, exactly what his objectives might be is anyones guess. It's absolutely certain however that the objective is not to undertake an intellegent exploration of the subject matter in order to arrive at a well thought through and fully supported conclusion, an intense dislike of Thailand or perhaps simple boredom might be places to beginhence large pinches of salt are required whilst reading..

I don't hate Thailand, it is my country and I live here.

I am seeing a similar problem to the USA property market collapse, in the making.

I can see the empty condos, I can see the vacant houses, I can see the sub-prime loans being offered all around me.

I am currently in the process of buying a house, not for profit but to live in.

It doesn't matter if the price goes up or down, I will be living in it.

(How big a loss could I make on a $60k property anyway).

I have no intention of 'selling up', but neither will I be making any $$$$s investments in the Thai property market.

I also wouldn't be buying a condo, which seem hugely overpriced to me, at the moment.

I understand that as foreigners you have fewer options to buy, just be careful.

As for your 'lack of statistical data',

Was there much of that about in the USA before the crash?

Was there much of that before the 1990s Thai financial problem?

What did you see that made the USA property collapse?

Assuming you haven't confused the words 'see' and 'foresee'

I saw, people getting home loans who didn't have a hope in hell of paying them back.

I saw, people getting 110% home loans.

I saw builders working flat out to build homes, where there were clearly no buyers wanting to live in those homes.

Didn't you see that happening around you? or weren't you living in the USA at that time?

[chiang mai]

Readers who are following this, yet another, "I hate Thailand and am going to trash it at any opportunity" thread should understand that this is but one of a series over recent weeks. Each thread repeats the same boring mantra that one or more aspects of the Thai economy are near breaking point and that we should all sell up and get out as soon as possible lest we all lose everything we posses. None of the claims, not a single one, is ever supported by any factual or statistical data from a reliable source, typically the only evidence amounts to extracts from the (unaccredited) blogs of other unknowns, articles from the Nation and Bangkok Post and from obscure investment magazines.

Readers should understand that these opinions (and that's what is being offered to you, not fact in any proven way) are written by a retired banker from the US who doesn't even live in Thailand and presumably writes similar threads for PanamaVisa, MexicoVisa and the like, exactly what his objectives might be is anyones guess. It's absolutely certain however that the objective is not to undertake an intellegent exploration of the subject matter in order to arrive at a well thought through and fully supported conclusion, an intense dislike of Thailand or perhaps simple boredom might be places to beginhence large pinches of salt are required whilst reading..

I don't hate Thailand, it is my country and I live here.

I am seeing a similar problem to the USA property market collapse, in the making.

I can see the empty condos, I can see the vacant houses, I can see the sub-prime loans being offered all around me.

I am currently in the process of buying a house, not for profit but to live in.

It doesn't matter if the price goes up or down, I will be living in it.

(How big a loss could I make on a $60k property anyway).

I have no intention of 'selling up', but neither will I be making any $$$$s investments in the Thai property market.

I also wouldn't be buying a condo, which seem hugely overpriced to me, at the moment.

I understand that as foreigners you have fewer options to buy, just be careful.

As for your 'lack of statistical data',

Was there much of that about in the USA before the crash?

Was there much of that before the 1990s Thai financial problem?

Statistical data showed NPL's at 7% prior to the crash in 1997.

[chiangmaikelly]

Readers who are following this, yet another, "I hate Thailand and am going to trash it at any opportunity" thread should understand that this is but one of a series over recent weeks. Each thread repeats the same boring mantra that one or more aspects of the Thai economy are near breaking point and that we should all sell up and get out as soon as possible lest we all lose everything we posses. None of the claims, not a single one, is ever supported by any factual or statistical data from a reliable source, typically the only evidence amounts to extracts from the (unaccredited) blogs of other unknowns, articles from the Nation and Bangkok Post and from obscure investment magazines.

Readers should understand that these opinions (and that's what is being offered to you, not fact in any proven way) are written by a retired banker from the US who doesn't even live in Thailand and presumably writes similar threads for PanamaVisa, MexicoVisa and the like, exactly what his objectives might be is anyones guess. It's absolutely certain however that the objective is not to undertake an intellegent exploration of the subject matter in order to arrive at a well thought through and fully supported conclusion, an intense dislike of Thailand or perhaps simple boredom might be places to beginhence large pinches of salt are required whilst reading..

I don't hate Thailand, it is my country and I live here.

I am seeing a similar problem to the USA property market collapse, in the making.

I can see the empty condos, I can see the vacant houses, I can see the sub-prime loans being offered all around me.

I am currently in the process of buying a house, not for profit but to live in.

It doesn't matter if the price goes up or down, I will be living in it.

(How big a loss could I make on a $60k property anyway).

I have no intention of 'selling up', but neither will I be making any $$$$s investments in the Thai property market.

I also wouldn't be buying a condo, which seem hugely overpriced to me, at the moment.

I understand that as foreigners you have fewer options to buy, just be careful.

As for your 'lack of statistical data',

Was there much of that about in the USA before the crash?

Was there much of that before the 1990s Thai financial problem?

What did you see that made the USA property collapse?

Assuming you haven't confused the words 'see' and 'foresee'

I saw, people getting home loans who didn't have a hope in hell of paying them back.

I saw, people getting 110% home loans.

I saw builders working flat out to build homes, where there were clearly no buyers wanting to live in those homes.

Didn't you see that happening around you? or weren't you living in the USA at that time?

The USA problem was caused by Subprime mortgage crisis among other things. Global investors drastically reduced purchases of mortgage-backed debt and other securities as part of a decline in the capacity and willingness of the private financial system to support lending. Concerns about the soundness of U.S. credit and financial markets led to tightening credit around the world and slowing economic growth in the U.S. and Europe. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subprime_mortgage_crisis

This is not happening in Thailand at all. What you are describing is a small view of what was happening in your neighborhood, it could have been Detroit and has nothing to do with Thailand. There is no property bubble in Thailand and all the reputable financial experts are in agreement about that. I don't know where you live in Thailand but where I live in an industrial area homes are being built and bought by working people every day. Most people put some money down and buy a house.

I transferred my assets from the USA to Thailand 10 years ago because it was obvious 45 baht to the dollar was not going to last.

It seems fruitless to me to compare the US housing problems with Thailand because they are not at all the same. There is no Lehman Brothers in Thailand.

Edited May 10, 2013 by chiangmaikelly

[Naam]

NeverSure

These are the same geniuses who tell me there is no real estate bubble when my own two lying eyes know better.

i heard real estate bubble when when prices were skyrocketing and i hear real estate bubble when there is an oversupply (prices have been and are still dropping) e.g. in Thailand. without a common denominator or definition of "bubble" a discussion makes no sense.

in this context i don't understand the ridiculous rumour that real estate prices have risen 39% above estimated inflation during the last years. i have no idea what the markets in other concentrated urban areas are doing but i am rather well informed what's going on in the "greater Pattaya" area. here we have an oversupply bubble for both detached homes and condos with prices well below cost of new construction and far below construction cost prevailing 8-9 years ago.

some few exceptions (luxury condos prime seafront) exist as far as prices are concerned. however, the occupation/sold quota is extremely low.

It's very regionally sensitive obviously. I think you are correct, that there is a contradiction. There is a bubble in supply not prices per se.

As I said, it all depends who ends up holding the baby.

They need to get a handle on supply and move the unsold stock before building more.

i would wholeheartedly agree with you if i had not learned during the last years a surprising, even humiliating lesson. i live in a rather small but upscale 'moo baan', one of dozens (plural!) a Thai gentleman has "developed". because of some (insignificant) engineering advice i rendered a few years ago we have become (sort of / kinda) friends which allowed to me to ask some quite impolite questions such as (now i exaggerate a wee bit!) "how come your neck hair raising and cold shivers creating method of building detached homes in mini-instalments as far as construction stages are concerned has not lead to your bankruptcy a long time ago?"

he then explained to me that he was taught this specific method by his father who was taught by his grandfather who used the method before Mao came into power but then opted to move from southern China to Thailand because there applying the method became, unlike in communist China, again feasible. with a smile on his face he admitted that he has not the faintest idea about "markets, currencies, globalisation, economic cycles..." and that his method has one single but strong foundation, namely patience.

here's what he told me:

-i buy land,

-if possible land that will appreciate in value,

-if it doesn't appreciate during my life time it will appreciate during the life time of my children,

-i look for a subcontractor who is looking for a job and then start construction with foundations,

-i wait till i find subcontractors who look for jobs for other stages of construction and have them

carried out step by step,

-i don't let time frames or dead lines pressure me, the buildings will be finished sooner... or later.

-once they are finished i sell 50% and 50% i let.

-the profit of getting all construction stages far below average cost outweigh the cost of blocked capital.

-i don't finance!

-as simple as that.

[chiang mai]

And you'll forgive me for saying so but one of the major disconnects in these debates is the difference bewteen what westerners see on the ground, up close and personal over time, and, what a person reads and interprets from the local press et al, from afar.

Another aspect of this is being able to comprehend what is seen: some posters talk of dark buildings at night which they translate into unsold unoccupied condo's. Perhaps they are and perhaps they're not, there's a condo building next to the Pun-Pun in Chiang Mai and for the longest time I thought it was a vacant building because it always appeared very dark and uninhabited at night, it turns out that's just the design of the building and the reality is that the opposite is true.

[chiangmaikelly]

NeverSure

These are the same geniuses who tell me there is no real estate bubble when my own two lying eyes know better.

i heard real estate bubble when when prices were skyrocketing and i hear real estate bubble when there is an oversupply (prices have been and are still dropping) e.g. in Thailand. without a common denominator or definition of "bubble" a discussion makes no sense.

in this context i don't understand the ridiculous rumour that real estate prices have risen 39% above estimated inflation during the last years. i have no idea what the markets in other concentrated urban areas are doing but i am rather well informed what's going on in the "greater Pattaya" area. here we have an oversupply bubble for both detached homes and condos with prices well below cost of new construction and far below construction cost prevailing 8-9 years ago.

some few exceptions (luxury condos prime seafront) exist as far as prices are concerned. however, the occupation/sold quota is extremely low.

It's very regionally sensitive obviously. I think you are correct, that there is a contradiction. There is a bubble in supply not prices per se.

As I said, it all depends who ends up holding the baby.

They need to get a handle on supply and move the unsold stock before building more.

i would wholeheartedly agree with you if i had not learned during the last years a surprising, even humiliating lesson. i live in a rather small but upscale 'moo baan', one of dozens (plural!) a Thai gentleman has "developed". because of some (insignificant) engineering advice i rendered a few years ago we have become (sort of / kinda) friends which allowed to me to ask some quite impolite questions such as (now i exaggerate a wee bit!) "how come your neck hair raising and cold shivers creating method of building detached homes in mini-instalments as far as construction stages are concerned has not lead to your bankruptcy a long time ago?"

he then explained to me that he was taught this specific method by his father who was taught by his grandfather who used the method before Mao came into power but then opted to move from southern China to Thailand because there applying the method became, unlike in communist China, again feasible. with a smile on his face he admitted that he has not the faintest idea about "markets, currencies, globalisation, economic cycles..." and that his method has one single but strong foundation, namely patience.

here's what he told me:

-i buy land,

-if possible land that will appreciate in value,

-if it doesn't appreciate during my life time it will appreciate during the life time of my children,

-i look for a subcontractor who is looking for a job and then start construction with foundations,

-i wait till i find subcontractors who look for jobs for other stages of construction and have them

carried out step by step,

-i don't let time frames or dead lines pressure me, the buildings will be finished sooner... or later.

-once they are finished i sell 50% and 50% i let.

-the profit of getting all construction stages far below average cost outweigh the cost of blocked capital.

-i don't finance!

-as simple as that.

Thanks for posting that. I live on a street where the owner of the land lives next door to me. He has built 6 homes. Three of them are bought and the remaing three are for rent. My wife was trying to explain why to me but it made no sense to my Western mind. Now I am beginning to understand the logic of the 50/50 thing. I think I know but explain to me one more time why he wants to rent 50%.

[samran]

"Personal non-performing loans are predicted to amount to Bt280 billion this year, 11 per cent higher than last year, he said. (MCOT online

news)"

Just to head this one off at the pass: NPL's increase in accordance with the growth in lending and since personal loans grew year on year, the forecast NPL figure is trending downwards, as is the reported property NPL figure.

As usual, you missed the point. The POINT is the overwhelming amount of loans being made, many of which are putting Thai households under water.

Of COURSE there are more loans and that is the problem. Easy lending will bring the house down.

Why don't you just sit back and learn?

Just to be clear - have you ever tried to get a home loan in Thailand?

No? Well I have. I earn a very very good salary by Thai standards, and the equity up front required by the banks was phenomenal. They've learned the lessons of the 1990's.

But you are typing this from the US, where the banks, or rather, home mortgage companies ran around like headless chooks giving out $900,000 to Mexican farm workers earning $600 per month. These loans were then packaged, split and repackaged again and then stamped at AAA rated 'bonds' which more people bought, mainly dozy pension funds.

The same thing is NOT happening here in Thailand. Repeat, the US is NOT the centre of the world (notice I spelt 'centre' the proper way just to emphasise that fact - notice no 'zed' there in emphasise either.).

[AnotherOneAmerican]

Just to be clear - have you ever tried to get a home loan in Thailand?

No? Well I have. I earn a very very good salary by Thai standards, and the equity up front required by the banks was phenomenal. They've learned the lessons of the 1990's.

But you are typing this from the US, where the banks, or rather, home mortgage companies ran around like headless chooks giving out $900,000 to Mexican farm workers earning $600 per month. These loans were then packaged, split and repackaged again and then stamped at AAA rated 'bonds' which more people bought, mainly dozy pension funds.

The same thing is NOT happening here in Thailand. Repeat, the US is NOT the centre of the world (notice I spelt 'centre' the proper way just to emphasise that fact - notice no 'zed' there in emphasise either.).

Yes, 2 months ago.

I was offered 90% home loan at 7%, on a reasonable income by Thai standards, offer document in my hand. Waiting for house build to finish.

Up front payment by me nearly 200kbht. No previous credit history in Thailand, no income from a Thai employer.

It was very easy to get.

Edited May 10, 2013 by AnotherOneAmerican

[samran]

Just to be clear - have you ever tried to get a home loan in Thailand?

No? Well I have. I earn a very very good salary by Thai standards, and the equity up front required by the banks was phenomenal. They've learned the lessons of the 1990's.

But you are typing this from the US, where the banks, or rather, home mortgage companies ran around like headless chooks giving out $900,000 to Mexican farm workers earning $600 per month. These loans were then packaged, split and repackaged again and then stamped at AAA rated 'bonds' which more people bought, mainly dozy pension funds.

The same thing is NOT happening here in Thailand. Repeat, the US is NOT the centre of the world (notice I spelt 'centre' the proper way just to emphasise that fact - notice no 'zed' there in emphasise either.).

Yes, 2 months ago.

I was offered 90% home loan at 7%, on a reasonable income by Thai standards, offer document in my hand. Waiting for house build to finish.

Up front payment by me nearly 200kbht.

It was very easy to get.

So 10% up front is pretty standard and responsible. And it sounds like the place you are going for is only going to be 2MB. That isn't a $900K loan to a mexican farm worker. If you are going for bigger places like we were in BKK, the deposit rises to 20% of the valuation, which is often lower than the sales price, so the banks are very conservative.

[AnotherOneAmerican]

Just to be clear - have you ever tried to get a home loan in Thailand?

No? Well I have. I earn a very very good salary by Thai standards, and the equity up front required by the banks was phenomenal. They've learned the lessons of the 1990's.

But you are typing this from the US, where the banks, or rather, home mortgage companies ran around like headless chooks giving out $900,000 to Mexican farm workers earning $600 per month. These loans were then packaged, split and repackaged again and then stamped at AAA rated 'bonds' which more people bought, mainly dozy pension funds.

The same thing is NOT happening here in Thailand. Repeat, the US is NOT the centre of the world (notice I spelt 'centre' the proper way just to emphasise that fact - notice no 'zed' there in emphasise either.).

Yes, 2 months ago.

I was offered 90% home loan at 7%, on a reasonable income by Thai standards, offer document in my hand. Waiting for house build to finish.

Up front payment by me nearly 200kbht.

It was very easy to get.

So 10% up front is pretty standard and responsible. And it sounds like the place you are going for is only going to be 2MB. That isn't a $900K loan to a mexican farm worker. If you are going for bigger places like we were in BKK, the deposit rises to 20% of the valuation, which is often lower than the sales price, so the banks are very conservative.

It isn't the small number of loans to relatively wealthy people that cause the problems.

It is the millions of small loans to the poor (sub-prime) that bring the banks down.

[samran]

Just to be clear - have you ever tried to get a home loan in Thailand?

No? Well I have. I earn a very very good salary by Thai standards, and the equity up front required by the banks was phenomenal. They've learned the lessons of the 1990's.

But you are typing this from the US, where the banks, or rather, home mortgage companies ran around like headless chooks giving out $900,000 to Mexican farm workers earning $600 per month. These loans were then packaged, split and repackaged again and then stamped at AAA rated 'bonds' which more people bought, mainly dozy pension funds.

The same thing is NOT happening here in Thailand. Repeat, the US is NOT the centre of the world (notice I spelt 'centre' the proper way just to emphasise that fact - notice no 'zed' there in emphasise either.).

Yes, 2 months ago.

I was offered 90% home loan at 7%, on a reasonable income by Thai standards, offer document in my hand. Waiting for house build to finish.

Up front payment by me nearly 200kbht.

It was very easy to get.

So 10% up front is pretty standard and responsible. And it sounds like the place you are going for is only going to be 2MB. That isn't a $900K loan to a mexican farm worker. If you are going for bigger places like we were in BKK, the deposit rises to 20% of the valuation, which is often lower than the sales price, so the banks are very conservative.

It isn't the small number of loans to relatively wealthy people that cause the problems.

It is the millions of small loans to the poor (sub-prime) that bring the banks down.

Indeed they do. But are you saying that they are giving away subprime loans in Thailand, to NINJA's with low teaser rates which effectively ballon to 12% after 2 years?

[AnotherOneAmerican]

Indeed they do. But are you saying that they are giving away subprime loans in Thailand, to NINJA's with low teaser rates which effectively ballon to 12% after 2 years?

If I had a market stall and could show bank deposits of 15k a month for the last 6 months, they would have offered me a 95% loan on 900kbht.

If I drove a tuk-tuk, and could show same, 95%

If I worked as a 'manager' in a massage shop earning 17k a month for 1 year, they would lend me 1.6Mbht

These are just 3 examples of local people I know offered home loans in the last 3 months.

Would you consider these three to be sub-prime loans?

Edited May 10, 2013 by AnotherOneAmerican

[Naam]

i heard real estate bubble when when prices were skyrocketing and i hear real estate bubble when there is an oversupply (prices have been and are still dropping) e.g. in Thailand. without a common denominator or definition of "bubble" a discussion makes no sense.

in this context i don't understand the ridiculous rumour that real estate prices have risen 39% above estimated inflation during the last years. i have no idea what the markets in other concentrated urban areas are doing but i am rather well informed what's going on in the "greater Pattaya" area. here we have an oversupply bubble for both detached homes and condos with prices well below cost of new construction and far below construction cost prevailing 8-9 years ago.

some few exceptions (luxury condos prime seafront) exist as far as prices are concerned. however, the occupation/sold quota is extremely low.

It's very regionally sensitive obviously. I think you are correct, that there is a contradiction. There is a bubble in supply not prices per se.

As I said, it all depends who ends up holding the baby.

They need to get a handle on supply and move the unsold stock before building more.

i would wholeheartedly agree with you if i had not learned during the last years a surprising, even humiliating lesson. i live in a rather small but upscale 'moo baan', one of dozens (plural!) a Thai gentleman has "developed". because of some (insignificant) engineering advice i rendered a few years ago we have become (sort of / kinda) friends which allowed to me to ask some quite impolite questions such as (now i exaggerate a wee bit!) "how come your neck hair raising and cold shivers creating method of building detached homes in mini-instalments as far as construction stages are concerned has not lead to your bankruptcy a long time ago?"

he then explained to me that he was taught this specific method by his father who was taught by his grandfather who used the method before Mao came into power but then opted to move from southern China to Thailand because there applying the method became, unlike in communist China, again feasible. with a smile on his face he admitted that he has not the faintest idea about "markets, currencies, globalisation, economic cycles..." and that his method has one single but strong foundation, namely patience.

here's what he told me:

-i buy land,

-if possible land that will appreciate in value,

-if it doesn't appreciate during my life time it will appreciate during the life time of my children,

-i look for a subcontractor who is looking for a job and then start construction with foundations,

-i wait till i find subcontractors who look for jobs for other stages of construction and have them

carried out step by step,

-i don't let time frames or dead lines pressure me, the buildings will be finished sooner... or later.

-once they are finished i sell 50% and 50% i let.

-the profit of getting all construction stages far below average cost outweigh the cost of blocked capital.

-i don't finance!

-as simple as that.

Thanks for posting that. I live on a street where the owner of the land lives next door to me. He has built 6 homes. Three of them are bought and the remaing three are for rent. My wife was trying to explain why to me but it made no sense to my Western mind. Now I am beginning to understand the logic of the 50/50 thing. I think I know but explain to me one more time why he wants to rent 50%.

i have no problems understanding his view, which i think is brilliant.

for expansion he needs working capital, i.e. sells 50%. but he also wants to increase his tangible assets and receive cash-flow = bingo!

[samran]

Indeed they do. But are you saying that they are giving away subprime loans in Thailand, to NINJA's with low teaser rates which effectively ballon to 12% after 2 years?

If I had a market stall and could show bank deposits of 15k a month for the last 6 months, they would have offered me a 95% loan on 900kbht.

If I drove a tuk-tuk, and could show same, 95%

If I worked as a 'manager' in a massage shop earning 17k a month for 1 year, they would lend me 1.6Mbht

These are just 3 examples of local people I know offered home loans in the last 3 months.

Would you consider these three to be sub-prime loans?

900,000 baht for 25 years at 5% (say) is a repayment of 5,200 per month. On a salary of 15K per month, that would be doable if you were living a Thai style existence. I'd have to assume there would also be another income earner in the household.

The are all services industries, as needed in Thailand as say a Taxi driver would be in the west. I know plenty of Taxi drivers and factory workers in Australia, originally migrants, who have built up huge portfolio's over 40+ years.

So to answer your question, I'd say no.

Edited May 10, 2013 by samran

[dcutman]

NeverSure

These are the same geniuses who tell me there is no real estate bubble when my own two lying eyes know better.

i heard real estate bubble when when prices were skyrocketing and i hear real estate bubble when there is an oversupply (prices have been and are still dropping) e.g. in Thailand. without a common denominator or definition of "bubble" a discussion makes no sense.

in this context i don't understand the ridiculous rumour that real estate prices have risen 39% above estimated inflation during the last years. i have no idea what the markets in other concentrated urban areas are doing but i am rather well informed what's going on in the "greater Pattaya" area. here we have an oversupply bubble for both detached homes and condos with prices well below cost of new construction and far below construction cost prevailing 8-9 years ago.

some few exceptions (luxury condos prime seafront) exist as far as prices are concerned. however, the occupation/sold quota is extremely low.

Its obvious you dont have access to Google, because you never have supply a link to your claims, and not even sure how you come up with some of this stuff.

http://www.phuketgazette.net/thailandnews/2013/Land-prices-upcountry-doubling-20542.html

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/business/Land-prices-soar-as-new-projects-launched-30201464.html

http://www.joelizzerd.com/latest/pattaya-hua-hin-and-phuket-land-prices-keep-rising

Your quotes/links are from a property developers blog, the Nation (which is notorious pro-property development) and a farang newspaper in Phuket, hardly the world centre of expertise on this subject I would suggest - fact is that you have offered three opinions as evidence and nothing more hence I suggest the case is unproven.

Do you believe the Bangkok Post? because it is there to. As well as 40 other sources saying the same exact thing. Google it.

The problem with you and many others, you are not willing to accept facts, and you will not/cannot offer any evidence, because your delusions dont have evidence.

[chiang mai]

Its obvious you dont have access to Google, because you never have supply a link to your claims, and not even sure how you come up with some of this stuff.

i heard real estate bubble when when prices were skyrocketing and i hear real estate bubble when there is an oversupply (prices have been and are still dropping) e.g. in Thailand. without a common denominator or definition of "bubble" a discussion makes no sense.

NeverSure

These are the same geniuses who tell me there is no real estate bubble when my own two lying eyes know better.

in this context i don't understand the ridiculous rumour that real estate prices have risen 39% above estimated inflation during the last years. i have no idea what the markets in other concentrated urban areas are doing but i am rather well informed what's going on in the "greater Pattaya" area. here we have an oversupply bubble for both detached homes and condos with prices well below cost of new construction and far below construction cost prevailing 8-9 years ago.

some few exceptions (luxury condos prime seafront) exist as far as prices are concerned. however, the occupation/sold quota is extremely low.

http://www.phuketgazette.net/thailandnews/2013/Land-prices-upcountry-doubling-20542.html

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/business/Land-prices-soar-as-new-projects-launched-30201464.html

http://www.joelizzerd.com/latest/pattaya-hua-hin-and-phuket-land-prices-keep-rising

Your quotes/links are from a property developers blog, the Nation (which is notorious pro-property development) and a farang newspaper in Phuket, hardly the world centre of expertise on this subject I would suggest - fact is that you have offered three opinions as evidence and nothing more hence I suggest the case is unproven.

Do you believe the Bangkok Post? because it is there to. As well as 40 other sources saying the same exact thing. Google it.

The problem with you and many others, you are not willing to accept facts, and you will not/cannot offer any evidence, because your delusions dont have evidence.

I don't need any evidence, I'm not the one who's trying to prove their point, you are! All I say to you is that you haven't proved your case simply by producing links to a couple of Thai newspapers, that's about as authoratative and convincing as reading something in the Sun or the National Enquirer.